Increase In Surface Air Temperature Research Articles

Increased vulnerability of Arctic potential ice roads under climate change

Temporary ice roads built by the process of snow compaction, watering, and icing during cold winters are lifelines for land access in remote Arctic. In the context of the Arctic amplified warming, the vulnerability of potential ice roads under the influence of complex climate system remains unclear. Here, we construct a potential ice road assessment model that allows quantization of the climatic suitability of potential ice roads in the Arctic. Using satellite remote sensing and meteorological data, we find changes in surface air temperature and snow cover reduced the climatic suitability of potential ice roads during 1979–2017. Spatially, potential ice roads in North America face more immediate threats due to decreased snow depth compared to Eurasia. Before the end of the 21st century, we project a further decline in the climatic suitability of potential ice roads, primarily due to increasing surface air temperatures and decreasing permafrost stability. Taking precious metal/diamond exploration as an example, we conclude that mining activities associated with ice roads will face access difficulties by 2050–2100 due to the decreased potential ice roads. These results give new insights into the challenges and opportunities of Arctic overland travel.

Enhanced warming of European mountain permafrost in the early 21st century

Mountain permafrost, constituting 30% of the global permafrost area, is sensitive to climate change and strongly impacts mountain ecosystems and communities. This study examines 21st century permafrost warming in European mountains using decadal ground temperature data from sixty-four boreholes in the Alps, Scandinavia, Iceland, Sierra Nevada and Svalbard. During 2013–2022, warming rates at 10 metres depth exceed 1 °C dec−1 in cases, generally surpassing previous estimates because of accelerated warming and the use of a comprehensive data set. Substantial permafrost warming occurred at cold and ice-poor bedrock sites at high elevations and latitudes, at rates comparable to surface air temperature increase. In contrast, latent heat effects in ice-rich ground near 0 °C reduce warming rates and mask important changes of mountain permafrost substrates. The warming patterns observed are consistent across all sites, depths and time periods. For the coming decades, the propagation of permafrost warming to greater depths is largely predetermined already.

Trends of Summer Lake Surface Water Temperature on the Tibetan Plateau and Their Response to Climate Change

AbstractThe Tibetan Plateau (TP) is covered by numerous lakes, and lake surface water temperature (LSWT) is an essential indicator of climate change, while few observations hinder our understanding of LSWT variation and its causes over TP. This study aims to simulate the summer LSWT long‐term trends of 81 TP lakes during 1980–2018 and quantify the impacts and contributions of atmospheric variables. Results show that TP lakes warmed with 0.32°C decade−1 on average. Northern TP lakes warmed faster than the southern ones (0.44 vs. 0.16°C decade−1) due to stronger trends of atmospheric variables and higher sensitive of colder lakes to atmospheric changes. 55 (67.9%) lakes of the total lakes studied in current work warmed slower than air due to weakened shortwave radiation (SW↓). Attribution analysis suggests that the air warming and wetting over TP dominate lakes' warming. Regarding synthesis contributions, air warming contributed 79.3%, with increased surface air temperature (SAT) and downward longwave radiation (LW↓) accounting for 41.6% and 37.7%, respectively, and air wetting indicated by increased surface specific humidity (SSH) contributed 39.0%, followed by a positive contribution (16.8%) from declined wind speed (WS). The negative contribution (−35.1%) from weakened SW↓ nearly counterbalances the positive effects of increased LW↓. 55.1% of the total synthesis contribution arises from the cross contribution through interactions among atmospheric variables and is mainly reflected in SAT and SSH, accounting for 26.8% and 24.8%, respectively. The findings enhance understanding of climate change impacts on lake systems and offer insights for lake resource management.

NAO Signal in the Increased Interannual Variability of Spring Vegetation in Northeast Asia After the Early 2000s

AbstractBased on the leaf area index (LAI) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 1982 to 2020, this study reveals a significant increase in the intensity of interannual variability (IIV) in spring (April–May) vegetation over Northeast Asia since the early 2000s. This change is closely linked to the notable increase in the IIV of April surface air temperatures over Northeast Asia from the former period (1986–2001) to the latter period (2002–2016). Further analysis also highlights a salient impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the strengthened IIV in vegetation. During the latter period, there is a substantial increase in the IIV of the March NAO compared with the former period. This greater variability allows the positive NAO to significantly influence the net heat fluxes, thereby leading to a positive phase of the North Atlantic tripole (NAT) sea surface temperature (SST) pattern in March. Given the persistence of SSTs, the positive NAT SST pattern lasts to April, subsequently causing positive height anomalies over Northeast Asia through a wave train that originates from the North Atlantic and propagates downstream. This process consequently results in an increase in surface air temperature over Northeast Asia and hence the local vegetation. Thus, the increased IIV of the March NAO is conducive to enhancing the IIV in spring vegetation over Northeast Asia.

Modern Climate Changes in the Selenga Mid-mountain Region and their Reflection in Rivers Runnow and Tree Ring Chronologies

Based on data from 7 meteorological stations, the main parameters (surface air temperature, precipitation, aridity and humidification indices) characterizing climate trends for 1950–2021 were considered on the territory of the Selenga midlands (The Republic of Buryatia), and their influence on river flow and radial growth of Scots pine. A significant increase in surface air temperature is shown, occurring with a high degree of consistency at different weather stations. The average value of the linear trend for the territory for the general period was 2.1°C. The most intense increase in temperature and increase in the frequency of above-zero anomalies has been observed in the last 11 years (2011–2021). In the precipitation regime during the study period, two complete moistening cycles were identified (1961–1981 and 1982–2018) lasting 21 and 37 years. Currently, there is a humid phase, which began in 2019. An increase in temperature leads to increased aridity of the region, which is especially noticeable during the arid phases. The cyclicity characteristic of the precipitation regime is also manifested in long-term changes in river flow. The river’s water flows are most dependent on precipitation. Selenga. However, the synchronicity of their changes is not observed throughout the entire time series. In the precipitation regime, the phase of reduced moisture at the beginning of the 21st century is not as clearly expressed as in the runoff regime. The same differences were revealed in the flow regime of different rivers, which is due to the location of their catchment areas. The watersheds of only two rivers — Dzhida and Orongoy — are located entirely in the Selenga midlands. Most of the catchments of the Selenga and Chikoy rivers are located outside the study area. This circumstance determines to a large extent the good consistency of long-term changes in the water flows of these rivers and the differences from the river flow regime. Orongoya and especially r. Jids. The dynamics of the width of the annual rings of Scots pine trees growing in the Selenga midlands reflects changes in its hydrothermal regime during the current and previous growing seasons. The influence of atmospheric precipitation is pronounced, so the amount of precipitation for May–June explains about 40% of the increase for the residual (without autocorrelation component) tree-ring chronology.

How have atmospheric components of the local water cycle changed around the abrupt climatic shift over France?

The significant increase in surface air temperature experienced by Western Europe over the last few decades has resulted in an abrupt warming in France, around 1987/1988 years. This climatic shift impacted hydrological cycle, particularly by reducing runoff in spring and summer. Evapotranspiration and precipitation have been identified as the main drivers of climatic water balance. But the impact of the 1987/1988 climatic shift on local water cycle over France has not been quantified yet. This study tries to assess the consequences of this rapid warming on the main climatic components of local water cycle. Climate variables linked to the water cycle extracted from a reanalysed observed climate database are analysed using robust Bayesian change points detection and mean comparison techniques. After the abrupt rise in surface air temperature and surface solar radiation, water demand increases significantly on almost the entire French territory in spring, summer and autumn. Our results show that, from March to May, the vegetation cover is able to respond to this increase by drawing from the soil water reservoirs. But in summer, most of the territory is facing a significant rise in water constraint (i.e. difference between potential and actual evapotranspiration), extending on the last decade over autumn. In spring and summer, the increase in potential evapotranspiration is the main driver of the intensification of water constraint. In the beginning of autumn, longer dry spell also plays a major role in the lengthening of periods of water constraint. This innovative study highlights the specific impact of a climatic shift on the main components of the atmospheric water balance at regional and local scale. As the observed changes in climate hazard linked to water cycle affect growth cycle of the majority of the vegetation covers and crops, this could lead to a worsening of hydric stress events. As such climatic shifts are expected to happen again in the future, their impacts on the local water cycle represent a major issue for natural terrestrial ecosystems as well as for agriculture.

Future Global River Ice in CMIP6 Models under Climate Change

Abstract River ice changes due to climate change significantly impact river hydrology, economies, and societies. This study employed the CMIP6 data and a river ice model to predict global river ice changes in response to climate change. Results indicate significant declines in global river ice due to global warming. With each 1°C increase in surface air temperature (SAT) in the future, river ice extent of ice-affected rivers decrease by 2.11 percentage points, and ice duration shorten by 8.4 days. Under the shared socioeconomic pathways 2-4.5 (SSP2-4.5) scenario, the long-term mean SAT is 1.2°–2.5°C higher than in the near term. This leads to a 1.9–4.4-percentage-point decrease in global river ice extent, a 6.8–15.1-day decrease in river ice duration, and ice-free rivers increasing by up to 4.02%. The SSP5-8.5 scenario predicts a warmer long-term mean SAT, leading to greater reductions in river ice. Geographically, river ice loss is most notable in North America, Europe, Siberia, and the Tibetan Plateau (TIB), particularly in peninsular, coastal, and mountainous regions due to the combined effects of initial temperatures and temperature increases. Overall, the eastern Europe (EEU) shows the greatest loss of river ice on average. Monthly analyses show the most substantial decreases from October to June, indicating pronounced seasonal variability. This study provides valuable insights for addressing challenges related to river ice changes in high-latitude and high-elevation regions. Significance Statement River ice has a significant impact on various aspects, including hydrology, ecology, and the economy. The ongoing global warming phenomenon has resulted in a decline in river ice. This ice acts as a barrier, affecting river gas exchange and influencing the metabolism of the river, which is crucial for regulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The primary objective of this research is to examine the response of river ice to future climate change. The outcomes of this study will play a role in estimating future GHG emissions and understanding river metabolism, as well as providing a valuable reference for tackling emerging challenges in resource acquisition in high-latitude and high-altitude regions.

The study of the city of Rudny as a “heat island”

The annual increase in surface air temperatures contributes to climate change. This phenomenon is widespread over the entire surface of the Earth and is typical for any point of the planet. The purpose of this study was to identify patterns of changes in meteorological indicators in the city of Rudny, Kostanay region, Republic of Kazakhstan over the summer period 2018–2022. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the fact that for the first time the spatial distribution of the heat index in the territory of the city of Rudny was determined. To conduct the study, data from local automated weather stations were used, meteorological data was analyzed, compared for each year of the study, and the heat index was calculated. The reliability of the results is ensured by mathematical processing of daily empirical temperature and humidity data (calculation of the average for the day, the average for the month), coefficient of variation, coefficient of dispersion. The conducted research provides a clear description of climate changes in the city of Rudny, which can be used by municipal authorities to form measures to reduce the thermal impact on public health, heat loss in the housing and communal services system, and to improve air quality when planning urban infrastructure in the territory of the studied city.

Климатические изменения температуры воздуха западной части российской Арк­тики в 1940—2099 гг. по данным ERA5 и моделям CMIP6

The study deals with the climatic changes in surface air temperature (SAT) in the western part of the Russian Arctic (60—80° N, 30—90° E). To analyze the changes in SAT that occurred over the period 1940—2023, we use data from the ERA5 reanalysis and the results of the Historical model experiment CMIP6. Future changes in SAT until the end of the 21st century we consider based on the results of SSP experiments of CMIP6 models. An increase in the average SAT of the studied region by 2—4°C is shown from approximately the mid-1970s to 2023. Moreover, this increase in SAT is most noticeable in the White and Kara Seas, as well as in the north and east of the Barents Sea. CMIP6 models based on different greenhouse gas emission scenarios produce markedly different forecasts for the increase in SAT for the region under study until the end of the 21st century. Thus, depending on the scenario, the average increase in SAT in the region under study by the end of the 21st century can range from 2—4°C to 6—10°, with stronger growth of SAT in the north of the region under study. At the same time, with little dependence on the future scenario, CMIP6 models predict that in the next 30 years the average SAT of the western part of the Russian Arctic will increase by approximately 2—3°C, and in the north of the region under study its increase may be more than 3°C, and in south — about 2°C. Thus, the difference in average SAT between the north and south of the region under study will decrease throughout the 21st century under any of the SSP scenarios considered.

Aerosol effects during heat waves in summer 2022 and responses to emission change over China

This study explores aerosol direct, indirect, and feedback effects on meteorology and fine particulate matter during heat waves of August 2022 over eastern China by using an online coupled regional climate–chemistry–aerosol model. In this period, aerosols exerted mean direct (DRE) and indirect (IRE) radiative effects of −3.9 Wm−2 and −2.4 Wm−2 at TOA, which totally caused a decrease in average surface air temperature by 0.3 °C over east China, accompanied by decreases in PBLH (planetary boundary layer height) and precipitation and an increase in PM2.5 concentration. With the anthropogenic emission reduction from 2013 to 2022, DRE apparently decreased while IRE changed little, leading to a decrease in total aerosol radiative effect (TRE) by 27% at TOA. The weakened TRE resulted in increases in surface air temperature and precipitation by 0.14 °C and 2.7 mm, respectively, on average over east China, with the maximum warming exceeding 0.5 °C in BTH (Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei province). This study highlights a warming trend due to weakened TRE, which may exacerbate heat wave, and an increasing importance of aerosol IRE relative to DRE due to weak sensitivity of cloud properties to aerosol change during the emission reduction.

Impact of late winter sea surface temperature seesaw between equatorial central Pacific and Philippine Sea on early spring vegetation over the low-latitude highlands of China

In this study, the impact of late winter (January–February) sea surface temperature (SST) seesaw between equatorial central Pacific and Philippine Sea on early spring (March–April) vegetation interannual variation over the low-latitude highlands of China (CLLH) is investigated. The positive phase of late winter seesaw SST pattern, characterized by warmer (colder)-than-normal SSTs in the equatorial central Pacific (Philippine Sea), favors early spring CLLH vegetation growth. From the local perspective, the positive phase of late winter SST seesaw results in stronger (higher)-than-normal precipitation (surface air temperature) in the west (east) of the CLLH, these abnormal signals may be recorded by land surface and may persist to early spring, and this wetter(warmer)-than-normal land surface condition in the west (east) of the CLLH favors local vegetation growth. For the atmospheric circulation anomalies, the positive phase of late winter seesaw SST pattern contributes to an anomalous anticyclone over Philippine Sea in lower troposphere. On one hand, anomalous northerly winds on the eastern flank of this anomalous cyclone advect off-equatorial dry and cold air to the Maritime Continent and cause precipitation reduction there, consequently an anomalous anticyclone over the tropical north Indian Ocean in lower troposphere is excited via a Gill-type Rossby wave atmospheric response. This anomalous anticyclone leads to enhanced upward motion and increased precipitation in the west of the CLLH resultantly. On the other hand, southerly wind anomalies being the western flank of the anomalous anticyclone advect warm air to the east of the CLLH, result in increased surface air temperature there.

Reduced Arctic Ocean CO2 uptake due to coastal permafrost erosion

Arctic coastal permafrost erosion is projected to increase by a factor of 2–3 by 2100. However, organic matter fluxes from the coastal permafrost into the ocean have not been considered in Earth system models so far. Here we represent coastal permafrost erosion in an Earth system model and perform simulations with varying permafrost organic matter properties, such as sinking fraction and nutrient content. We find that coastal erosion reduces the Arctic Ocean CO2 uptake from the atmosphere in all simulations: by 4.6–13.2 TgC yr−1 by 2100, which is ~7–14% of the Inner Arctic Ocean uptake. We show that coastal permafrost erosion exerts a positive biogeochemical feedback on climate, increasing atmospheric CO2 by 1–2 TgC yr−1 per °C of increase in global surface air temperature. Our work will allow coastal permafrost erosion to be considered in future climate change assessments.

Spatial Variation in CO2 Concentration Improves the Simulated Surface Air Temperature Increase in the Northern Hemisphere

Spatial Variation in CO2 Concentration Improves the Simulated Surface Air Temperature Increase in the Northern Hemisphere

A century-long tendency of change in surface air temperature on the territory of Ukraine

A century-long tendency of change in surface air temperature on the territory of Ukraine

Global-scale future climate projections from ACCESS model contributions to CMIP6

This paper describes projected climate evolution and outcomes simulated by the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) to varying future scenarios, including of socio-ecological and technological development, and land-use and land-cover change. Contributions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) from the climate model version, ACCESS-CM2, and the fully coupled Earth System Model version, ACCESS-ESM1.5, are presented for the near-future (2020–2050), 21st Century (2000–2100) and longer-term (2100–2300). Scenario differentiation in the near future is aided by high-density sampling in large-ensemble ACCESS-ESM1.5, more clearly illustrating projected 2020–2050 global changes in temperature, precipitation and aerosol optical depth. Over the 21st Century, the heightened equilibrium climate sensitivity of ACCESS-CM2 relative to ACCESS-ESM1.5 results in persistently greater surface air temperature increases and larger amplified polar warming, leading to more rapid sea ice decline. Although weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) occurs in both models, 21st Century recovery under aggressive-mitigation and overshoot scenarios only occurs in ACCESS-ESM1.5; AMOC weakening continues under all scenarios in ACCESS-CM2 through to 2100. Longer-term climate response from simulations extending to 2300 depict opposing hemispheric responses of polar surface air temperatures and sea ice in both models under scenarios based on aggressive mitigation action, leading to a resurgence of surface ocean warming and Antarctic sea ice decline. Under a future scenario where development is driven by continued fossil fuel use, both AMOC and Antarctic Bottom Water Formation continue to weaken across 2200–2300 in both models, reaching such low levels in ACCESS-CM2 that these pivotal components of global meridional overturning circulation could be considered essentially to have ceased.

Simulation of ozone–vegetation coupling and feedback in China using multiple ozone damage schemes

Abstract. As a phytotoxic pollutant, surface ozone (O3) not only affects plant physiology but also influences meteorological fields and air quality by altering leaf stomatal functions. Previous studies revealed strong feedbacks of O3–vegetation coupling in China but with large uncertainties due to the applications of varied O3 damage schemes and chemistry–vegetation models. In this study, we quantify the O3 vegetation damage and the consequent feedbacks to surface meteorology and air quality in China by coupling two O3 damage schemes (S2007 vs. L2013) into a fully coupled regional meteorology–chemistry model. With different schemes and damaging sensitivities, surface O3 is predicted to decrease summertime gross primary productivity by 5.5 %–21.4 % and transpiration by 5.4 %–23.2 % in China, in which the L2013 scheme yields 2.5–4 times of losses relative to the S2007 scheme. The damage to the photosynthesis of sunlit leaves is ∼ 2.6 times that of shaded leaves in the S2007 scheme but shows limited differences in the L2013 scheme. Though with large discrepancies in offline responses, the two schemes yield a similar magnitude of feedback to surface meteorology and O3 air quality. The O3-induced damage to transpiration increases national sensible heat by 3.2–6.0 W m−2 (8.9 % to 16.2 %), while reducing latent heat by 3.3–6.4 W m−2 (−5.6 % to −17.4 %), leading to a 0.2–0.51 °C increase in surface air temperature and a 2.2 %–3.9 % reduction in relative humidity. Meanwhile, surface O3 concentrations on average increase by 2.6–4.4 µg m−3, due to the inhibitions of stomatal uptake and the anomalous enhancement in isoprene emissions, the latter of which is attributed to the surface warming by O3–vegetation coupling. Our results highlight the importance of O3 control in China due to its adverse effects on ecosystem functions, global warming, and O3 pollution through O3–vegetation coupling.

ЭКОЛОГИЧЕСКИ ОБУСЛОВЛЕННЫЕ ЗАБОЛЕВАНИЯ, ВЫЗВАННЫЕ ИЗМЕНЕНИЕМ МЕТЕОРОЛОГИЧЕСКИХ ФАКТОРОВ: ДИАГНОСТИКА И ПУТИ ПРОТИВОДЕЙСТВИЯ

Climatic and geographic factors characterizing local conditions, as well as the ecological state of the external environment, have a direct effect on human health, morbidity, and life expectancy. The paper considers the basic concepts of medical ecology, a pathogenetic role of environmental atmospheric pollution in the development of environmentally induced and environmentally dependent diseases associated with exposure to meteorological factors. In addition to the major hygienic risk factors affecting the public health (a level of air, water, and soil pollution), the levels of acoustic and electromagnetic background, the type of human nutrition, architectural and planning conditions of human life are of significant importance. Global climate warming causes numerous environmental changes, primarily an increase in surface air temperature, which in turn entails global changes in weather conditions that lead to various weather anomalies. Human health is directly dependent on environmental conditions and a degree of adaptation to them. The paper highlights the issues of diagnosing environmentally induced diseases and measures to counteract their spread. Based on the system diagnosis using physiological indicators of human health and the integration of the adaptation and nosological approaches, a hardware-software complex has been developed and introduced into medical practice. Corrective technologies of regenerative medicine that are used for ecologically dependent pathologies are described. Their application in the process of the complex sanatorium and resort treatment is most effective.

Historical global and regional spatiotemporal patterns in daily temperature

The abrupt increase in surface air temperature over the last few decades has received abundant scholarly and popular attention. However, less attention has focused on the specific nature of the warming spatially and seasonally, using high-resolution reanalysis output based on historical temperature observations. This research uses the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis Version 5 (ERA5) output to identify spatiotemporal features of daily mean surface air temperature, defined both as the mean of the maximum and minimum temperatures over the calendar day (“meanmaxmin”) and as the mean of the 24 hourly observations per day (“meanhourly”), across the terrestrial Earth. Results suggest temporal warming throughout the year, with several “hot spots” of significantly increasing temperature, including in the Arctic transition seasons, Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in July, Eurasia in spring, Europe and the lower latitudes in summer, and tropical autumn. Cooling is also observed, but generally at rates more likely to be statistically insignificant than warming rates. These trends are nearly identical regardless of whether calculated as “meanmaxmin” or “meanhourly.” These results may assist scientists and citizens to understand more fully observed agricultural, commercial, ecological, economic, and recreational trends in light of climate change considerations.

Климат Краснодарского края: мнение и ожидания молодежи (часть 2)

The article considers some features of young people’s perception of the Krasnodar Krai climate at different times of the year. During a sociological survey of students of the Kuban State Technological University, it was revealed that the weather conditions in the region as a whole, and directly in one of its cities – Krasnodar – are liked by respondents most in spring, least of all in summer. Factors of perception of long-term weather condi-tions are the duration of residence on the territory of the region and the type of locus of control. Possible behav-ioral strategies of young people were also studied in case of increase in the coming years in the summer sea-son of such regional trends as increase in surface air temperature, increase in climate aridity, reduction in the total number of cloudy and slightly overcast days. It was revealed that in the case of the implementation of this climate scenario, respondents most often intend to limit the time spent outdoors and in the open sun in the summer months, less often – to go to another region. The findings suggest that this approach could also be useful for developing adaptation programs for individual actors to the conditions of expected climate change in Krasnodar Krai.

Enhanced Intensity of Interannual Variability of May Drought in Northeast China After 2000 and Its Connection With the Barents Sea Ice

AbstractUsing the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, this article demonstrates that the intensity of interannual variability (IIV) of May drought in Northeast China has enhanced remarkably after entering into the 21st century. Relative to 1980–1999, the percentage increase of IIV reaches 70% during 2000–2016. Such an enhancement is well supported by the intensification of IIVs in the East Asian polar front jet stream (EAPJ), East Asian subtropical jet stream (EASJ), and lower‐level anticyclonic circulation anomaly over Northeast China. Remarkable impact from the Barents Sea ice in April is also highlighted. With respect to the former period, a substantial increase occurs as well in the IIV of April Barents Sea ice during 2000–2016. Due to larger IIV in the latter period, the decline of April Barents Sea ice can exert evident effects on heat fluxes, consequently resulting in a significant increase of surface air temperature (SAT) in situ in May. The increased SAT further induces a wave train propagating southeastward to the East Asian region from the Barents Sea, which leads to a strengthened EAPJ and a weakened EASJ in the upper level, concomitant with an anomalous anticyclonic circulation covering Northeast China in the lower level. These atmospheric circulation anomalies link to the drought variability over Northeast China. Thus, the increase in the IIV of April Barents Sea ice favors the enhanced IIV of May drought in Northeast China.