Increase In Carbon Emissions Research Articles

Analyzing the impacts of renewable energy, patents, and trade on carbon emissions-evidence from the novel method of MMQR.

Achieving sustainable development necessitates proactive measures to mitigate the economy's negative impact on environmental standards. A new empirical association between renewable energy patent innovation and net international trade on carbon emissions in ASEAN countries from 1990 to 2021 is presented, along with its significance. Using present panel data techniques, this study investigates the connections between these factors. Second-generation cointegration and unit root tests, as well as a novel method of Moments Quantile Regression, are used in the econometric procedure. Compared to standard quantile regression, this method is more resistant to outliers and provides an asymmetric relationship between the variables. The findings show that trade increases carbon emissions in countries with medium to high emissions, that patent innovation contributes to increasing emissions, and that renewable energy mitigates carbon emissions in countries with low to medium emerging economies. Our results are consistent with other specifications, including quantile regression canay (Canay 2011), fully modified, dynamic, and fixed effect regressions, proving the EKC hypothesis. These countries need to prioritize greener products and adopt advanced manufacturing technologies to reduce carbon emissions from consumption. However, as prosperity increases, it also leads to higher consumption-based carbon emissions, worsening ecological damage in the region. Implementing policies like trade synchronization and increasing investment in patent innovations are proposed in this study to lower the current level of carbon emissions.

IMPACT OF REPLACEMENT COAL AND FOSSIL ENERGY BY NUCLEAR ENERGY ON GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GASES EMISSION

Climate change has become one of the important matters that worry humanity worldwide, until local seminars and international conferences have been held for it at the highest levels, such as the level of heads of state. What is worrying about climate change is the increase in the average global temperature until it soon reaches the age of mankind, which has reached 1.5 degrees Celsius until the year 2033 and 2 degrees Celsius until the year 2059, as an inevitable result of the increase in carbon emissions resulting from electricity generation, industry and vehicle exhaust, which were estimated at about 1000 gigabytes of tons until the year 2060, in which the production of electrical energy contributes by more than 50%. On the other hand, the unjust encroachment on forests, this is the lung of the world. Since electric power generation is responsible for more than half of the global emissions of carbon gases, this research aims to study the carbon emissions resulting from electric power generation with the scenarios of Unfinished Symphony, Modern Jazz and Hard Rock, and trying to reduce the carbon emissions resulting from electric power generation by replacing electricity generation with nuclear energy as an alternative to coal all types, as well as petroleum (fossil fuels), with the stability of the use of natural gas and new and renewable energies according to previous scenarios until the year 2060. The result was, according to the Unfinished Symphony scenario, emissions were about 591.9 gigatons. In contrast, when using nuclear energy as an alternative, the contribution of electricity production by 65% cancels out the improvement in the amount of carbon emissions by 75.1%, with a carbon dioxide productivity of 146.8 gigatons. According to the Jazz scenario, emissions were about 632.1 gigatons. In contrast, when using nuclear energy as an alternative, the contribution of electricity production is 65%, which cancels out the improvement in the amount of carbon emissions by 75.2%, with a carbon dioxide productivity of 156.8 gigatons. According to the Hard Rock scenario, emissions were about (643.3) gigatons. In contrast, when using nuclear energy as an alternative, the contribution of electricity production is 65%, which cancels out the improvement in the amount of carbon emissions by 74.87%, with a production of carbon dioxide that amounted to 161.6 gigatons.

Unregulated economic activities and the environment: The role of fiscal policies

African countries are characterized by high unofficial activities, coupled with a fiscal structure that could either undermine or promote these activities to affect the environment. This study examines the direct and indirect environmental impacts of the unregulated economy and the fiscal instruments of government expenditure and tax using the panel quantiles regression technique. Driven by data availability, our analysis covers 46 countries when the fiscal variables are not considered, while 41 and 38 countries are respectively included in the models involving government expenditure and tax revenue from 2000 to 2016. We discover that the direct impact of unofficial economic activities is unfavourable on the environment, as it increases carbon emissions. The direct impacts of the fiscal policies are heterogeneous. The environmental effect of government expenditure changes from favourable to unfavourable as the countries move from low to high emissions levels. On the other hand, tax is only environmentally friendly in countries with moderate levels of emissions. The interactive effect of an unregulated economy and government expenditure worsens and improves the environment at low and high emissions levels, respectively. The results are heterogeneous for the interactive effect of unregulated economy and tax, although they are more biased toward a satisfactory impact on the environment at the extreme quantiles. Appropriate regulation of informal activities and the design of effective fiscal policy frameworks for environmental sustainability are policy derivatives of these findings.

Vegetation structure and carbon stock of restored mangrove on abandoned shrimp pond in the International Mangrove Botanical Garden Rama IX, Thailand

Abstract. Wongprom J, Maneeanakekul S, Tara A, Chandaeng W, Duangnamon D, Rueangket A, Wechakit D, Wanthongchai P, Maknual C. 2023. Vegetation structure and carbon stock of restored mangrove on abandoned shrimp pond in the International Mangrove Botanical Garden Rama IX, Thailand. Biodiversitas 24: 5821-5830. The conversion of mangrove forest into shrimp aquaculture has severely impacted biodiversity and increased carbon emissions. Restoration program is thus urgently needed for such mangrove forests. In this study, we investigated the vegetation structure and composition, and biomass and carbon stock of restored mangrove on abandoned shrimp pond. Observation plots at restoration sites with age of 3-year-old (MF3) and 14-year-old (MF14) were established in the International Mangrove Botanical Garden Rama IX, Chanthaburi Province, Thailand and at abandoned shrimp pond (ASP) and protected mangrove forest (PMF) as reference sites. The diameters and heights of mangrove species were measured and identified in order to determine the vegetation structure, composition, biomass, and carbon stock. Soil samples from four soil depths, i.e. 0-15, 15-30, 30-50, and 50-100 cm, were collected to quantify the soil carbon stock. The results showed the good growth of Rhizophora stand planted at the restored sites with high vegetation biomass and carbon stock. This species also promoted species diversity, suggesting that Rhizophora spp. are suitable species for the restoration of abandoned shrimp pond. The vegetation biomass and carbon stock of MF14 (230.99 t ha-1 and 102.54 t C ha-1, respectively) was higher than that of PMF (133.84 t ha-1 and 64.94 t C ha-1, respectively). Higher vegetation and soil carbon stocks of the restored mangrove forest was positively influenced by the Rhizophora stand. However, the ecosystem carbon pool of PMF was higher (366.38 t C ha-1). This result indicates that the conservation of mangrove forest is significant to maintain the forest diversity, ecosystem function, and reducing carbon emissions, while mangrove forest restoration is essential to improve the vegetation structure and increase the soil and vegetation carbon stocks.

Banking competition and regional carbon emissions: Intensifying or suppressing? – Estimation based on a bilateral random frontier model

Existing literatures predominantly emphasize the unidirectional impact of banking competition on regional carbon emissions, often overlooking its concurrent emissions-increasing and emissions-reducing effects. Utilizing panel data from Chinese cities at the prefectural level and above from 2011 to 2020, this study delves into both the emissions-enhancing and emissions-mitigating impacts of banking competition, assessing their net effect through a bilateral random frontier model. As indicated by the results: (1) the emissions-increasing effect of banking competition reaches 0.2614, the emissions-reducing effect is 0.1580, and the net effect refers to an increase of 0.1034 in carbon emissions. The result of the mechanism analysis suggests that banking competition is capable of reducing carbon emissions by facilitating technological progress and upgrading industrial structures, whereas it can result in exacerbated carbon emissions by increasing the number of fixed asset investments and the scale of resident consumption. (2) By incorporating the threshold model into the bilateral random frontier model, the results reveal that with the increase of the degree of banking competition, the marginal effect of banking competition's emissions-reducing effect on regional carbon emissions increases, whereas the marginal effect of its emissions-increasing effect declines. (3) As indicated by the results of the spatial econometric analysis, while banking competition increases local carbon emissions, it also increases carbon emissions in adjacent areas. This study can lay a solid foundation for improving the theory and empirical evidence of banking competition and regional carbon emissions while providing experience and evidence for China and other developing countries to achieve carbon emissions reduction.

Multi-objective global dynamic optimal scheduling of smart building loads considering carbon emissions

In recent years, there has been a significant increase in electricity consumption and carbon emissions from households in smart buildings. This increase has had a profound impact on the economic aspects of residential electricity consumption and the achievement of the national dual carbon goal. In this paper, an optimal scheduling model for household loads in smart buildings is established. It considers the user demand side, grid-side supply, and the impact of the PV energy storage system (PESS) on carbon emissions. The optimization objectives are the economy of household electricity consumption and the total deviation of electricity consumption. Second, the adaptive mixed inverse learning strategy multi-objective beluga optimization algorithm (AMOBWO) is adopted to enhance its overall dynamic optimization. This optimization addresses challenges such as the uneven distribution of electricity consumption, load timing constraints, power limitations, and uncertainty in electricity consumption during the scheduling of smart building loads. Finally, the results demonstrate that AMOBWO decreases the total cost of household electricity consumption in smart buildings by 59.32% (based on the selected maximum PV capacity). Additionally, it reduces the total deviation by 14.28% after optimal scheduling. As the PESS capacity increases, there is a significant reduction in the indirect carbon emissions from smart buildings, decreasing from 881.279 kg CO2 to 431.299 kg CO2.

Minimising the embodied carbon of reinforced concrete piles using a multi-level modelling tool with a case study

The construction industry is one of the main contributors to the increasing carbon emissions globally. With an increasing interest in optimising the embodied carbon of superstructures, very little attention is paid to optimising the embodied carbon of substructures although foundations are responsible for a considerable share of the total carbon emissions within any structures. This research focuses on minimising the embodied carbon of reinforced concrete piles and introduces a novel multi-level modelling tool that can be used by designers to discover the full range of feasible design scenarios with optimised environmental impact. Results show that adjusting design parameters like concrete grade (fck), pile slenderness ratio (L/D) and steel-to-concrete ratio (As/Ac) can lead to a significant cut in the final value of embodied carbon. The modelling tool is applied to a case study of a monorail bridge and showed that a 51.4% potential carbon saving can be achieved through adjusting the design parameters, moreover, a significant 72.4% cut is achievable if this is coupled with switching to cleaner materials.

Inquiring the impact of rural-urban migration, construction sector, and agriculture irrigated land on environmental degradation: insights from urbanized Asian countries.

The present study investigates the influence of rural-urban migration, construction sector share, and agriculture-irrigated land on environmental quality in urbanized Asian nations. For analysis, panel data from seven highly urbanized economies from 1996 to 2020 is utilized. The study employed an augmented mean group (AMG) estimator to find short and long-run results. The empirical discoveries depict that rural-urban migration increases energy demand in urbanized areas and significantly contributes to deteriorating environmental quality. The findings also reveal that the expansion of construction sectors is a significant source of high cement production, which also increases carbon emissions and environmental pollution by increasing the concentration of particulate matter in the atmosphere. The findings also exposed the role of agriculture-irrigated land, contributing to carbon emissions in urbanized Asian economies. The study also investigated the impact of the square term of irrigated agricultural land on environmental deterioration, revealing that adding agricultural land will further intensify environmental degradation by increasing carbon emissions in the atmosphere. A policy framework to reduce environmental damage in Asian economies caused by rural-to-urban migration, the building industry, and irrigated agricultural land was recommended based on the study's findings.

Decarbonization potential collaborated with source industries for China's iron and steel industry towards carbon neutrality

Towards the target of carbon neutrality, the need for deep decarbonization in iron and steel industry is increasingly recognized. Existing studies rarely mention the effects of collaboration with its source industries for carbon emission reduction in ISI. Furthermore, the fundamental laws of CO2 emission reduction capacity with cost change of source substitutions for various steel production routes under market economics are unclear. To avoid the blind substitution of clean sources for meeting the urgent requirements for decarbonization in China's steel industry, which may result in increased carbon emissions and uneconomical carbon reduction from a lifecycle perspective. This paper integrates the production and utilization processes of source resources into the steel production process, establishes coupling models of carbon and value flows for four main types of steel production routes, and aims to quantitatively analyze the specific CO2 emission reduction potential and costs. Three economic market development scenarios from 2021 to 2060 are set, and the marginal carbon prices of various source substitutions are determined. Subsequently, decarbonization pathways with the goal of minimizing production costs are developed. Finally. The future resource demand and the carbon emission reduction contributions of source industries collaborated are predicted. The results show that (1) about 81.7–89.9 % of CO2 emissions could be reduced in the scenarios; (2) the demands of electric power and hydrogen energy will reach 54.48–511.90 BkWh and 7.47–10.31 Gt in 2060, respectively; and (3) collaboration with source industries could make 18.3–18.3% of CO2 emission reduction contributions. All in all, this study could provide scientific support for the low-carbon transformation of China's steel industry.

Driving factors and scenario prediction of carbon emission from transport sector in the Yangtze River Basin of China

IntroductionClimate change caused by carbon emission and their impact on social and economic system have garnered global attention, particularly from the world's largest emitters. Therefore, knowledge of both driving factors and reduction potential for carbon emission is crucial to revise climate policies. The transportation industry plays a major in global carbon emissions, mostly due to the excessive utilization of fossil fuels for combustion purposes.MethodsThe goal of this study is to investigate the underlying causes that drive carbon emissions in China's Yangtze River Basin. Additionally, this study seeks to anticipate the future potential reduction in carbon emission. To achieve these, our research used a combination of the LMDI method and Monte Carlo simulation.Results and discussionThe results indicate that, during 2006 to 2020, transportation carbon emission increased from 48.41 Mt to 104.37 Mt, following an annual growth rate of 5.64%, which suggests that energy strategies are not fully implemented as planned. The greatest positive impact on carbon emission is attributed to economic development, as the increase in resident income has led to the vigorous development of the transportation sector. Moreover, energy intensity and transportation efficiency have a negative influence on carbon emissions. The decrease of carbon emissions can be accomplished by the continued advancement of novel energy technologies and the optimization of energy systems. According to the baseline scenario, it is projected that carbon emissions from the transport sector will reach 198.76 Mt by the year 2030. Under the moderate scenario, there is a possibility for reducing emissions by 18.6 Mt, and under the advanced scenario, the potential reduction is estimated to be 48.84 Mt. As a view to suppress the increase of carbon emission from transportation, a set of plans and policies must be implemented from demand-side and supply-side, including improving transportation efficiency, and optimizing energy structure, etc.

Coupling Coordination and Spatiotemporal Evolution of Low-Carbon Logistics, Industrial Agglomeration, and Regional Economy in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

The logistics industry plays a crucial role in the global economy, but also poses significant challenges to the economy, society, and environment due to increasing carbon emissions. Therefore, coordinated development between the logistics industry and regional economy has become a strategic choice for achieving sustainable development. Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt as an example, this study constructs an evaluation index system of “low-carbon logistics–industrial agglomeration–regional economy” to explore the coupling coordination relationship and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the three systems from 2006 to 2020. Furthermore, it analyzes the spatial correlation features and evolutionary trends of the coordinated development among the three systems. The results indicate that during the study period, the coupling coordination degree among the three systems in the Yangtze River Economic Belt showed a fluctuating upward trend but with a relatively low level of coordination. There were significant regional differences, presenting a stepped distribution pattern of “high in the east and low in the west.” The coordinated development among the three systems exhibited a significant positive spatial correlation, with “H–H” and “L–L” agglomerations being dominant. The spatial distribution of coupling coordination degree remained relatively stable, with the overall center of gravity located in the southeast of Hubei Province. The spatial evolution pattern showed a distinct “northeast–southwest” direction. Finally, suggestions for the coordinated and sustainable development of the three systems are put forward.

Climate vs Energy Security: Quantifying the Trade-offs of BECCS Deployment and Overcoming Opportunity Costs on Set-Aside Land.

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) sits at the nexus of the climate and energy security. We evaluated trade-offs between scenarios that support climate stabilization (negative emissions and net climate benefit) or energy security (ethanol production). Our spatially explicit model indicates that the foregone climate benefit from abandoned cropland (opportunity cost) increased carbon emissions per unit of energy produced by 14-36%, making geologic carbon capture and storage necessary to achieve negative emissions from any given energy crop. The toll of opportunity costs on the climate benefit of BECCS from set-aside land was offset through the spatial allocation of crops based on their individual biophysical constraints. Dedicated energy crops consistently outperformed mixed grasslands. We estimate that BECCS allocation to land enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) could capture up to 9 Tg C year-1 from the atmosphere, deliver up to 16 Tg CE year-1 in emissions savings, and meet up to 10% of the US energy statutory targets, but contributions varied substantially as the priority shifted from climate stabilization to energy provision. Our results indicate a significant potential to integrate energy security targets into sustainable pathways to climate stabilization but underpin the trade-offs of divergent policy-driven agendas.

The role of land use landscape patterns in the carbon emission reduction: Empirical evidence from China

The regulation of land use landscape patterns to achieve carbon reduction in pursuit of carbon neutrality has not received sufficient attention. Existing studies have largely focused on specific land use types, such as urban built-up areas. As a result, such studies lack comprehensive regional research, hindering the formulation of integrated carbon reduction policies and sustainable land use planning. Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt as the study object, this study constructs a quantitative analysis framework that conducts regional land use carbon emission evaluation, landscape pattern analysis, dynamic correlation examination, and measures their respective mechanisms. The results indicate that cropland in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has progressively decreased over the last 20 years (−3.32 %), whilst wetland areas have experienced slow growth (1.81 %) and built-up land has expanded significantly (90.14 %) over the same period. Except for the Interspersion and juxtaposition index (IJI) and Modified Simpson’s evenness index (MEISI), other indices exhibit a decreasing trend with distinct temporal characteristics. By designing and deploying an annual panel regression model, this study quantifies the impact of land use and landscape pattern changes on carbon emissions from a regional perspective. The results reveal that lower levels of landscape heterogeneity and fragmentation and a lower concentration of urban built-up land are conducive to carbon reduction; contrastingly, a decrease in landscape complexity and connectivity increases carbon emissions. Finally, recommendations are put forward regarding land use landscape patterns under the framework of carbon neutrality.

Green finance, economic growth, and carbon emissions: a PVAR analysis.

The study examines the relationship between green finance development, carbon emission intensity, and economic development in China's 30 provinces. The entropy approach is used to calculate the green finance development index, and a panel vector autoregressive model is established using this index along with economic development and carbon emission intensity. The study finds that green finance can promote economic growth and help achieve emission reduction objectives, while increasing carbon emissions can also promote economic growth. The study also highlights regional differences, with the economic growth of the eastern and central regions negatively correlated with carbon emissions after surpassing the inflection point of the environmental Kuznets curve. Additionally, the study suggests that there is still room for growth in green finance in the western region. The findings have important policy implications for China in developing targeted development strategies.

Optimal operation of energy hub considering reward-punishment ladder carbon trading and electrothermal demand coupling

As the massive carbon emissions from the power system, the shift of the power system to low-carbon becomes inevitable. In this context, this paper proposes a Stackelberg game approach to develop the operational strategy of energy hubs, which considers the reward and punishment ladder carbon trading mechanism and the coupling of electrothermal demand. To avoid the fixed carbon price in the past and the neglect of the incentive space for carbon trading, a ladder carbon trading mechanism of rewards and punishments is introduced to effectively depict carbon trading costs. The electrothermal coupling of the demand side is incorporated into the Stackelberg game model, and the flexible consumption model of users participating in the integrated demand response is established. The above model is solved by combining heuristic algorithm with solver CPLEX, which can solve the data privacy leakage problem of both parties. Simulation results show that the strategy can bring economic benefits to energy hub operators and users. Carbon emissions across the system were reduced by 14.4 %. Users with electric heating equipment can fully improve the electric load and heat load adjustment level, and improve their economic benefits by 2.4 % at the cost of a 3.2 % increase in carbon emissions.

Is the discovery of oil a blessing or curse in the era of climate change?

The decades-old question of whether oil is a blessing or a curse to countries that discover it has received much attention in the literature on energy and resource economics and policy. Despite the contributions of the resource curse literature and its critique, the global consensus to address climate change by reducing emissions from fossil fuels poses a new challenge to the extractives-led growth strategies. This research analyzes the ways oil discoveries influence carbon emissions differently in countries with contrasting institutional quality. Our results show that the significant and intensifying treatment effects of finding oil over time lead to an increase in carbon emissions in low institutional quality countries, while such effect is not significant in high institutional quality countries. The carbon curse triggered by detrimental effects of low institutional quality encourages improving a government’s ability to provide sound policies and regulations to promote private sector development. Such ability is the focal point between neoclassical economics and developing societies that served to reveal the institutional underpinnings of market economies for high-quality growth. Beside high-quality growth, our finding reveals supplementary motivation for the quality of government, which helps mitigate the carbon curse triggered by finding oil.

Digitalization Level and Green-Oriented Transition Development of Highly Energy-Intensive Enterprises Based on Carbon Reduction Perspective

Against the dual background of the vigorous shape of digital economy and the severe pressure for carbon reduction, exploring the mechanism of the relationship between digitalization level and carbon reduction of highly energy-intensive enterprises is one of the current hot topics in theoretical and practical circles. This paper selects panel data of listed companies with high energy consumption from 2007 to 2019 and adopts a threshold-regression method to empirically test the impact of digitalization level on corporate carbon emission reduction It turns out that the digitalization level of enterprises has both an “inverted U” effect and a heterogeneous effect on carbon emissions. Enterprise technological innovation has both a threshold action and a regulating action on the influence of digitalization level on carbon emissions. It can play a role in accelerating the digitalization level to the inhibition of the increase in carbon emissions in advance and has a reinforcing effect in accelerating the reduction of enterprise carbon emissions.

Renewable energy consumption and carbon emissions in developing countries: the role of capital markets

ABSTRACT This study examines the impact of capital market on the relationship between energy consumption and carbon emissions. By employing a system Generalised Methods of Moments (GMM) for a sample of 138 developing countries over the period, 1990–2020, we find a U-shaped reverse relationship between renewable energy consumption and carbon emissions. The study reveals that beyond a threshold of 71.03, renewable energy consumption tends to increase carbon emissions. Similarly, the initial levels of carbon emissions reduce the use of renewable energy but beyond a 2.5 level of carbon emissions, renewable energy consumption begins to increase. We find that both the stock market and bond market reduce carbon emissions and enhance the levels of renewable energy consumption. We provide evidence to support that the capital market enhances the negative impact of renewable energy consumption on carbon emissions, while the corporate bond market magnifies the reductive effect of carbon emissions on renewable energy consumption.

Challenges to environmental governance arising from the Russo–Ukrainian conflict: Evidence from carbon emissions

The destruction of ecosystems, increase in carbon emissions, and volatility of energy prices following the outbreak of the Russo–Ukrainian conflict constitute a complex situation that environmental managers must cope with. In response, this study aims to explore the impact of the Russo–Ukrainian conflict on carbon emissions in the European Union (EU) and associated heterogeneity factors. This study utilized stacked data from 2021 to 2022 on daily carbon emissions and used the differences-in-differences (DID) model as its methodological framework. This study also provides additional analyses for the United States (US), the United Kingdom (UK), and Russia. The full-blown Russo–Ukrainian conflict led to a significant increase in carbon emissions in the EU, averaging 0.092 MtCO2. Further investigations showed that the conflict led to a significant increase in energy prices and that changes in the prices of different energy sources had a heterogeneous effect on carbon emissions. Specifically, an increase in natural gas prices drove a rise in carbon emissions, whereas an increase in oil prices led to a decrease in carbon emissions in the EU. Third, the conflict also affected countries outside the EU, including the US and the UK, which experienced significant increases in carbon emissions in contrast to Russia, which underwent a decline. Finally, the study identified four sectors - international aviation, industry, power, and residential - as the primary contributors to elevated carbon emissions in the EU. This study provides a novel perspective for exploring the interplay between conflicts and carbon emissions and offers valuable insights into shaping effective environmental management policies and measures.

Spatio-temporal variations of the land-use-related carbon budget in Southeast China: the evidence of Fujian province

The attainment of a regionally balanced carbon budget is fundamental for the realization of carbon neutrality. This study involved the quantification of the carbon budget related to land use across Southeast China from 2005 to 2020, which was achieved through the calculation of both carbon emissions and carbon sinks. Subsequently, we scrutinized the mechanisms driving the observed dynamic changes in the carbon budget, pinpointed the impact of land-use efficiency (LUE) on the carbon budget, and proposed sustainable spatial planning and management strategies for diverse functional areas at the county level. The core findings are as follows: The dynamics of the carbon budget were spatially heterogeneous, characterized by a gradual increase in carbon emissions over time, while carbon sinks remained relatively constant. The Gini coefficient (G) manifested a gradual increase throughout the study period, reflecting an imbalanced evolution between carbon sinks and emissions. There was also an observable imbalance in the distribution of the carbon ecological carrying coefficient between coastal and inland regions. Land-use-related carbon emissions demonstrated a substantial spatial spillover effect, whereas a weak spatial spillover effect was noted in land-use-related carbon sinks. The correlation between LUE and the carbon budget varied significantly across different functional areas, as the driving effects of LUE displayed remarkable spatial heterogeneity. A quantification of the spatio-temporal alterations and the driving mechanisms behind the carbon budget can aid in the advancement of urban sustainability and regional carbon neutrality.