Challenges to environmental governance arising from the Russo–Ukrainian conflict: Evidence from carbon emissions

Abstract

The destruction of ecosystems, increase in carbon emissions, and volatility of energy prices following the outbreak of the Russo–Ukrainian conflict constitute a complex situation that environmental managers must cope with. In response, this study aims to explore the impact of the Russo–Ukrainian conflict on carbon emissions in the European Union (EU) and associated heterogeneity factors. This study utilized stacked data from 2021 to 2022 on daily carbon emissions and used the differences-in-differences (DID) model as its methodological framework. This study also provides additional analyses for the United States (US), the United Kingdom (UK), and Russia. The full-blown Russo–Ukrainian conflict led to a significant increase in carbon emissions in the EU, averaging 0.092 MtCO2. Further investigations showed that the conflict led to a significant increase in energy prices and that changes in the prices of different energy sources had a heterogeneous effect on carbon emissions. Specifically, an increase in natural gas prices drove a rise in carbon emissions, whereas an increase in oil prices led to a decrease in carbon emissions in the EU. Third, the conflict also affected countries outside the EU, including the US and the UK, which experienced significant increases in carbon emissions in contrast to Russia, which underwent a decline. Finally, the study identified four sectors - international aviation, industry, power, and residential - as the primary contributors to elevated carbon emissions in the EU. This study provides a novel perspective for exploring the interplay between conflicts and carbon emissions and offers valuable insights into shaping effective environmental management policies and measures.