Increase In Sea Surface Temperature Research Articles

Response of high-altitude clouds to the galactic cosmic ray cycles in tropical regions

Galactic cosmic rays are one of the possible mediators of the solar influence on climate. However, the impacts of GCR on clouds and climate systems are not fully understood. In this paper, we show that the high-altitude clouds associated with deep convective activities are responding to the decadal-scale cycles of GCRs and that the susceptible areas are seasonally variable. Most notable responses were found in August over tropical land areas, suggesting that the susceptivity of clouds to GCRs depends on the depth of convective activities and the abundance of aerosol precursor materials. Furthermore, following the activation of high-altitude cloud formation, an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) gradient was observed over the Pacific. Although the response of sea surface temperature to solar activity has mostly been discussed as mediated by solar radiations, we propose that another mechanism is possible: through the impact of GCRs on clouds and the resultant changes in atmospheric circulations.

Impact of Diurnal Warm Layers on Atmospheric Convection

AbstractThis manuscript presents a study of oceanic diurnal warm layers (DWLs) in kilometer‐scale global coupled simulations and their impact on atmospheric convection in the tropics. With the implementation of thin vertical levels in the ocean, DWLs are directly resolved, and sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations of up to several Kelvin appear in regions with low wind and high solar radiation. The increase of SST during the day causes an abrupt afternoon increase of atmospheric moisture due to enhanced latent heat flux (LHF), followed by an increase in cloud cover (CC) and cloud liquid water (CLW). However, although the diurnal SST amplitude is even exaggerated in comparison to reanalysis, this effect only lasts for 5–6 hr and leads to an absolute difference of 1% for CC and 0.01 kg m−2 for CLW. This can be explained by the fact that the low wind over the SST anomalies dampens their potential effect on the LHF and hence clouds. All in all, the impact of DWLs on convective CC is found to be negligible in the tropical mean.

Impact of changes in sea surface temperature due to climate change on hurricane wind and storm surge hazards across US Atlantic and Gulf coast regions

Communities in US coastal regions are threatened by hurricanes more than ever, and the effect of climate change may further aggravate the risk and corresponding losses in the future. This paper investigates the potential impact of changes in sea surface temperature (SST) on hurricane wind and storm surge hazards for the Atlantic and Gulf coast regions. An empirical track model that uses SST as an input is used to account for the effect of temperature variations on hurricane intensity. The storm surge hazard is modeled using Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH). Four projected future climate conditions based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios are adopted to capture the effect of changes in SST on future hurricane intensity. The impacts of changes in hurricane frequency and sea-level rise are also considered. The results show that the projected increase in the average SST will lead to more intense hurricanes by the end of the twenty-first century. An increase in wind speed for all the studied sites with varying degrees is observed. The most significant increase in wind speeds is observed on the northeast Atlantic coast, with some areas showing an increase of more than 60% for high return period winds under the most extreme future climate scenario. This is because a higher increase in SST is observed in such areas, which will lead to more intense hurricanes in the future. An increasing trend is also observed for the storm surge for all the study sites in the future. However, the largest increase in predicted surge heights is mainly seen in the Gulf Coast locations.

Increasing Shortwave Penetration Through the Bottom of the Oceanic Mixed Layer in a Warmer Climate

AbstractShortwave penetration (Qpen) through the bottom of the oceanic mixed layer (ML) profoundly affects the thermal structure in the upper ocean and consequently contributes to sea surface temperature (SST) change, which has not been adequately understood under global warming. Here, using ensemble earth system model simulations under a high‐emissions scenario (SSP5‐8.5), we investigate the Qpen change and related effects on some oceanic parameters, which are regionally dependent. It is found that globally averaged Qpen typically increased by 2.49 ± 0.83 W m−2 in the second half of the 21st century, which is comparable to an increase in the net surface heat flux (3.01 ± 0.31 W m−2), corresponding to an increase in SST by 3.07 ± 0.83°C. Although there exist substantial intermodel uncertainties in the projected chlorophyll change, the shoaled ML contributes the most of the increase in Qpen in the global ocean, whereas in the tropical ocean, the reduction in the chlorophyll concentration plays an equivalent role with the mixed layer depth in determining Qpen change. The ML heat budget indicates that the enhanced Qpen leads to surface cooling through a decrease in the surface net surface heat flux. However, the cooling is compensated for by a warming effect from ocean dynamical change due to more shortwave penetration into the subsurface layer, leading to a small net effect on the ML heat budget. It is suggested that the impact of Qpen on the global oceanic ML heat balance needs to be adequately recognized.

Recent changes in atmospheric input and primary productivity in the north Indian Ocean

Global oceanic regions are rapidly changing in terms of their temperature, oxygen, heat content, salinity and biogeochemistry. Since the biogeochemistry of the oceans is important and pivotal for global food production, and a major part of the world population relies on marine resources for their daily life and livelihood, it is imperative to monitor and find the spatio-temporal changes in the primary productivity of oceans. Here, we estimate the changes in Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and Net Primary Productivity (NPP) in the north Indian Ocean (NIO) basins of Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea for the period 1998–2019. We find a substantial reduction of NPP in NIO since 1998 (−0.048 mg m−3 day−1 yr−1) and the increase in sea surface temperature (SST) (+0.02 °C yr−1) is the primary driver of this change. Furthermore, there is a significant (10–20%) change in the air mass or dust transport to NIO from the period Decade 1 (1998–2008) to Decade 2 (2009–2019). This change in air mass trajectories has also altered NPP in both basins through the changes in nutrient input and associated biogeochemistry. Henceforth, this study cautions the changes in primary productivity of NIO, and suggests regular assessments and continuous monitoring of the physical and biological processes from a perspective of food security and ecosystem dynamics.

Omega-3 enriched chick diet reduces the foraging areas of breeders in two closely related shearwaters from contrasting marine environments.

Seabirds have evolved several life-history characteristics to help buffer environmental stochasticity. However, particularly during the breeding season, seabirds may be affected by reductions in prey availability and localised oceanographic conditions caused by variations in the environment. The increase in sea surface temperature, triggered by accelerated global warming, is impairing phytoplankton production of omega-3 fatty acids (FAs). Here, we assessed the ecological role of omega-3 FAs on chick development and subsequently on breeder foraging behaviour in two closely related shearwater species foraging in contrasting marine environments. We supplemented chicks with omega-3 FA pills or with control placebo pills and monitored chick growth, chick health status and breeder at-sea foraging behaviour using global positioning system devices. We found that omega-3 chick supplementation reduced the 95% kernel utilization distribution of short trips of Cape Verde shearwaters, but overall, breeders kept a similar foraging pattern between treatments, potentially influenced by predictable prey patches off the West African coast. In contrast, for Cory's shearwaters, the parents of the omega-3 group greatly reduced the foraging effort. This suggests that the proximity to productive prey patches around the colony may help birds to adjust their effort and, therefore, energy expenditure, to changes in the development of their offspring, as driven by their nutritional status. Overall, our results suggest a link between a chick diet enriched in omega-3 FAs and parental foraging effort, providing insight into their ability to cope with a changing and increasingly stochastic marine environment.

Marine Heatwaves Contribute More to Changing Air‐Water Exchange of Semi‐Volatile Organic Compounds Than Mean Sea Surface Temperature Rise

AbstractA consequence of global warming, marine heatwaves (MHWs), have destructive effects on local marine ecology. However, few studies have examined their influence on the biogeochemical carbon cycle. Here we show, global warming has changed the air‐water exchange of semi‐volatile organic compounds (SVOCs), and MHWs contribute more to changing air‐water exchange of SVOCs than increases in mean sea surface temperature (SST). Higher temperatures increased the flux of SVOCs exchange from water to air and suppressed the exchange from air to water. As a result, the MHWs lead to a 13.27% decrease for the daily flux of single SVOC and 0.05% decrease for annual flux of total SVOCs. In contrast, the raising of mean SST result of 0.14% decrease for the daily flux of single SVOC, and 0.01% decrease for annual flux of total SVOCs. Moreover, we observed inversion in the direction of SVOCs air‐water exchange during some MHWs.

Spatiotemporal networks for ENSO forecasting with LICOM3 and remote sensing data

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a complex coupled ocean-atmosphere event, usually manifested as an abnormal increase or decrease in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. ENSO is one of the critical factors causing global climate extremes and ecosystem turbulence. Therefore, long-term robust ENSO predictions are essential for people’s productive life and social development. The statistical and dynamic models still face challenges in making long-lead-time ENSO forecasts, and the accuracy can be improved. Here, we have created three innovative efforts for ENSO forecasting: (1) To compensate for the lack of Remote Sensing (RSS) dataset, we apply transfer learning with the large SST dataset simulated from the LASG/IAP Climate Ocean Model Version 3 (LICOM3). (2) We propose a novel encoder-decoder structure with multiple Spatiotemporal prediction units (ST-Pred) named ED-PredRNN. The ST-Pred changes the original transfer direction by adding spatiotemporal memory cells, allowing the model to extract more information. (3) To reduce the memory bandwidth load, we use FP32 and FP16 mixed-precision computing methods to improve model training and inference speed.The result shows that during 2011–2020 verification period, the correlation skills of the Niño 3.4 index predicted by ED-PredRNN are over 0.77/0.64/0.53 within the lead time of 6/12/18 months respectively, which is superior to existing statistical models. Also, the precise predictions of the El Niño event (such as 2015/16) and the La Niña event (such as 2010/11), as well as a reasonable forecast for neutral ENSO conditions (2014), demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of our proposed model.

Decline of seagrass (Posidonia oceanica) production over two decades in the face of warming of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.

The response of Posidonia oceanica meadows to global warming of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, where the increase in sea surface temperature (SST) is particularly severe, is poorly investigated. Here, we reconstructed the long-term P. oceanica production in 60 meadows along the Greek Seas over two decades (1997-2018), using lepidochronology. We determined the effect of warming on production by reconstructing the annual and maximum (i.e. August) SST, considering the role of other production drivers related to water quality (i.e. Chla, suspended particulate matter, Secchi depth). Grand mean (±SE) production across all sites and the study period was 48 ± 1.1 mg DW per shoot yr-1 . Production over the last two decades followed a trajectory of decrease, which was related to the concurrent increase in annual SST and SSTaug . Annual SST > 20°C and SSTaug > 26.5°C was related to production decline (GAMM, P < 0.05), while the rest of the tested factors did not help explain the production pattern. Our results indicate a persistent and increasing threat for Eastern Mediterranean meadows, drawing attention to management authorities, highlighting the necessity of reducing local impacts to enhance the resilience of seagrass meadows to global change threats.

Past and future response of the North Atlantic warming hole to anthropogenic forcing

Abstract. Most of the North Atlantic ocean has warmed over the last decades, except a region located over the subpolar gyre, known as the North Atlantic “warming hole” (WH), where sea surface temperature (SST) has in contrast decreased. Previous assessments have attributed part of this cooling to the anthropogenic forcings (ANT) – aerosols (AER) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) – modulated by decadal internal variability. Here, I use an innovative and proven statistical method which combines climate models and observations to confirm the anthropogenic role in the cooling of the warming hole. The impact of the aerosols is an increase in SST which is opposed to the effect of GHGs. The latter largely contribute to the cooling of the warming hole over the historical period. Yet, large uncertainties remain in the quantification of the impact of each anthropogenic forcing. The statistical method is able to reduce the model uncertainty in SST over the warming hole, both over the historical and future periods with a decrease of 65 % in the short term and up to 50 % in the long term. A model evaluation validates the reliability of the obtained projections. In particular, the projections associated with a strong temperature increase over the warming hole are now excluded from the likely range obtained after applying the method.

Challenges and opportunities in achieving sustainable mud crab aquaculture in tropical coastal regions

Aquaculture plays a significant role in food security and provides livelihoods and employment for millions of people among coastal communities worldwide. However, the growing aquaculture sector has also created debates around its long-term ecological sustainability, economic viability, potential social inequalities and governance issues. We investigated the perceived challenges and opportunities to achieving sustainable mud crab aquaculture in tropical coastal regions by using the case study of coastal mud crab farms in Andhra Pradesh, India. Informed by perceptions and indicative financial data from a sample of stakeholders we investigated the potential economic outcomes under different scenarios representing varying yield levels, risk factors and project time periods. The main risks identified by the stakeholders were associated with the limited supply of mud crab seeds and the lack of access to governmental and non-governmental support schemes. There are no financial buffers, therefore major disease outbreaks or extreme weather conditions caused by climate change would lead to a loss of livelihoods. This paper also highlights the most critical factor determining the level of success of mud crab farming being the crab survival rate which is influenced by a variety of factors including increasing sea surface temperature. The results of this study show that small-scale mud crab farming has fewer risks and higher flexibility involved than large-scale mud crab farming. It could be an economically sustainable enterprise and serve as a tool for poverty alleviation in developing countries if microfinance support and training are available.

Projected Sea Bottom Temperature Variability in the East China Shelf Seas by 2100

Existing research has proven the increase in sea surface temperature (SST) due to global warming. However, the sea bottom temperature (SBT) may exhibit different characteristics in various regional seas. The East China Shelf Seas (ECSSs), which are important shelf seas in the Western Pacific, hold ecological significance when analyzing their SBT variations in a warming future. This article investigates both the interannual and interdecadal SBT variations from 2006 to 2100, utilizing the projection results from phase 5 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) sponsored by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We conducted an analysis of the interdecadal variation by comparing the SBTs from the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s to the SBT observed in the 2010s. Our findings reveal a significant increase in SBT in the ECSSs. By 2100, the region is projected to experience enhanced warming of 1.18 °C. The springtime warming intensity of the Bohai Sea, reaching 1.92 °C, can be twice the rate of global ocean warming. The outer shelf of the ECSSs also exhibits significant increases in SBT. Through an analysis of the correlation between SBT and ocean currents, we investigate the potential mechanisms behind these observations. This paper provides insights into future SBT variations from both an interannual and interdecadal perspective, explaining the causes and the projected increase in environmental stresses on the benthic ecosystem over the next eighty years.

The Most Effective Remote Forcing in Causing U.S.‐Wide Heat Extremes as Revealed by CESM Green's Function Experiments

AbstractWe make use of the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 Green's function q‐flux perturbation experiments to explore the most effective remote forcing in driving U.S.‐wide summer heat extremes. We find that positive q‐flux forcing over the western North Pacific Ocean is the most effective in causing an increased heat extreme frequency. This works by driving increased sea surface temperature and precipitation over western North Pacific and an eastward propagating Rossby wave train with an anomalous ridge over the contiguous U.S. In comparison, negative q‐flux forcing over the eastern tropical Pacific and its resulting surface cooling also leads to an increased heat extreme frequency but is less effective. Furthermore, guided by the Green's function results, we separate the role of western North Pacific warming and eastern tropical Pacific cooling in U.S. heat extremes in prescribed sea surface temperature experiments and ERA5 reanalysis data and find overall consistent conclusions.

Rapidly Changing East Asian Marine Heatwaves Under a Warming Climate

AbstractThe East Asian marginal seas (EAMS) are one of the fastest‐warming ocean regions globally. This study presents the long‐term trends (1982–2020) of extreme ocean warming events called “marine heatwaves” over the EAMS and examines the relationships between marine heatwave trends and mean SST warming trends. We focus on five subregions with different influences from atmospheric perturbation and ocean currents: the northern East Sea (N‐ES), southern East Sea, Yellow Sea, Korea Strait (KS), and East China Sea (ECS). During the past four decades, marine heatwave duration and intensity in the EAMS have increased to approximately +4 days and +0.3°C per decade on average, respectively. In summer, the positive trend of marine heatwaves is the highest in the ECS, primarily due to the rapidly increasing mean sea surface temperature (SST). In winter, the N‐ES reveals remarkably rapid increases in marine heatwave properties in the last two decades, with increasing rates of approximately 6.2 (4.9) times longer total duration (stronger intensity) than the global average changes. Beyond the impact of the rapid increase in mean SST, the N‐ES marine heatwaves can be further extended due to the northward shift of the East Korea Warm Current. In general, mean SST changes are critical to the increasing trend in marine heatwave duration and intensity. This study further emphasizes that the changes in ocean circulation may expedite more rapid changes in extreme ocean events, which can produce more vulnerability in some places, such as the N‐ES, to marine heatwaves under continued global warming.

Aerobic response to thermal stress across ontogeny and habitats in a teleost fish.

Near-future climate change projections predict an increase in sea surface temperature that is expected to have significant and rapid effects on marine ectotherms, potentially affecting a number of critical life processes. Some habitats also undergo more thermal variability than others, and the inhabitants therefore must be more tolerant to acute periods of extreme temperatures. Mitigation of these outcomes may occur through acclimation, plasticity or adaptation, although the rate and extent of a species' ability to adjust to warmer temperatures is largely unknown, specifically as it pertains to effects on various performance metrics in fishes that inhabit multiple habitats throughout ontogenetic stages. Here, the thermal tolerance and aerobic performance of schoolmaster snapper (Lutjanus apodus Walbaum, 1792) collected from two different habitats were experimentally assessed under different warming scenarios (temperature treatments = 30, 33, 35, 36°C) to assess vulnerability to an imminently changing thermal habitat. Larger subadult and adult fish collected from a 12 m deep coral reef exhibited a lower critical thermal maximum (CTmax ) compared to smaller juvenile fish collected from a 1 m deep mangrove creek. However, the CTmax of the creek-sampled fish was only 2°C above the maximum water temperature measured in the habitat from which they were collected, compared to a CTmax that was 8°C higher in the reef-sampled fish, resulting in a wider thermal safety margin at the reef site. A generalized linear model showed a marginally significant effect of temperature treatment on resting metabolic rate (RMR), but there were no effects of any of the tested factors on maximum metabolic rate or absolute aerobic scope. Post hoc tests revealed that RMR was significantly higher for creek-collected fish at the 36°C treatment and significantly higher for reef-collected fish at 35°C. Swimming performance [measured by critical swimming speed] was significantly lower at the highest temperature treatment for creek-collected fish and trended down with each successive increase in temperature treatment for reef-collected fish. These results show that metabolic rate and swimming performance responses to thermal challenges are somewhat consistent across collection habitats, and this species may be susceptible to unique types of thermal risk depending on its habitat. We show the importance of intraspecific studies that couple habitat profiles and performance metrics to better understand possible outcomes under thermal stress.

Influence of Indian Ocean warming on rainfall of Sri Lanka

AbstractRecent studies have pointed out an increased warming over the tropical Indian Ocean (IO) and how such warming could alter the convection and rainfall in the region. In this study, using observational/reanalysis datasets from 1981 to 2020, we show that the early Maha rainfall of Sri Lanka (SL) has been increasing, and it is considerably influenced by the North‐western IO sea surface temperature (SST) increase in the second inter‐monsoon (SIM). A significant warming in the North‐western IO alters the zonal SST gradient and strengthens the low‐level circulation, which induces large‐scale convergence over the western IO during SIM, contributing to the enhancement of rainfall over SL. However, despite the substantial impact of IO warming, the moderate correlation suggests the importance of examining other factors, which may influence the rainfall variability of SL.

Impact of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity: A Numerical Investigation

Despite numerous studies, the impact of global warming on the tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity by reasons of data inhomogeneity in remote sensing and large natural variability over a relatively short period of observation is still controversial. Three carbon-emission sensitivity experiments are conducted to investigate how TC track and intensity respond to changes in the oceanic and atmospheric environment under global warming. The results show a high sensitivity of the simulated TC track and intensity to global warming. On one hand, with increase in carbon emissions, the western Pacific subtropical high expands notably, increasing the poleward steering flow and eventually leading to a poleward shift of TC. On the other hand, the underlying sea-surface temperature and surface-entropy flux increase and, thus, favor the convections near the eyewall. Moreover, the TC structure becomes more upright, which is closely related to the larger pressure gradient near the eyewall. As a result, TC intensity increases with carbon emissions. However, this increase is notably smaller than the maximum potential intensity theory as the TC intensity can reach a threshold if carbon emission still increases in the future. The involved mechanisms on the changes of TC track and intensity are also revealed.

The Effectiveness of CO2 Absorption Between Phytoplankton and Seagrass Beds in The West Sekotong Intertidal Zone of Lombok Island

The increasing sea surface temperature could be approved CO2 levels on the coast. It has been assumed the primary productivity in the intertidal zone was to absorb CO2 from the water column for photosynthesis. In addition, the substrate floor has a potential source of CO2 from decomposers. Phytoplankton and seagrasses are the primary productivity in the intertidal zone. Both of them have chlorophyll, they maintain the CO2 as a carbon source to move the photosynthetic systems to develop the metabolism of the body's cells. The measurements were made of the leaves and rhizomes of all the seagrass species. The absorption process was clarified by measuring the growth rate, percent LOI, and percent carbon in the whole body of the Tetraselmis sp and Dunaliella sp, which were phytoplankton species isolated from seagrass ecosystems. Enhalus acoroides (Ea) had the highest carbon content. On the other hand, Halophila ovalis and Halophila minor are the lowest carbon due to the distribution of Ea being the widest, they were found in all of the sampling areas. In addition, the factor that was supported was due to its high growth rate ability. Phytoplankton and seagrass on the coast of Sekotong Barat absorb CO2 in the water column and floor of the sediment (carbon sink). The presence of a different increase in carbon content between Tetrasemis sp and Dunaliella sp indicates, the species of phytoplankton respond differently to CO2 stress in the ocean.

Caribbean scleractinian corals exhibit highly variable tolerances to acute hypoxia

IntroductionClimate change, and the increase in sea surface temperature, is exacerbating ocean deoxygenation because of the inherent property of seawater to sequester less dissolved gas, such as oxygen, at warmer temperatures. While most coral reef studies focus on the effects of thermal stress and ocean acidification, few studies acknowledge the threat of hypoxia. Hypoxia is traditionally defined as 6.3 kPa (2 mg L-1 O2), however, a universal hypoxia threshold is not useful given the vast range of responses among marine organisms. The range of metabolic responses and tolerances to hypoxia are unknown for Caribbean coral species and their algal symbionts.ObjectiveHere, we quantified the spectrum of acute hypoxia tolerances and the range of metabolic responses of six ecologically and structurally important Caribbean coral species (Acropora cervicornis, Siderastrea radians, Siderastrea siderea, Porites astreoides, Porites porites, and Orbicella faveolata) and their algal symbionts (Symbiodinium, Breviolum, and Durusdinium spp.).MethodsA total of 24 coral fragments (4 individuals per species) were exposed to 10 distinct oxygen concentrations ranging from normoxia (20.38 kPa) to severe hypoxia (3.3 kPa). We used intermittent flow respirometry to measure coral host respiration in the dark and algal symbiont photosynthesis in the light at each oxygen level. We determined a line of best fit for the metabolic rate vs. PO2 data and calculated the critical oxygen partial pressure (PO2 crit), a method that has not been tested on symbiotic species.ResultsCoral species and their algal symbionts measured here displayed a wide range of hypoxia tolerances. For the coral hosts, PO2 crit values differed roughly two-fold ranging from 5.74 kPa to 16.93 kPa, and for the algal symbionts, PO2 crit values differed roughly three-fold ranging from 3.9 kPa to 11.3 kPa.DiscussionThese results should be regarded as a first step to characterizing the metabolic response and acute tolerance of multiple coral hosts and algal symbionts to a wide range of oxygen concentrations. Given that some PO2 crit values were above the generally accepted hypoxia threshold, these results have implications for the community composition of reefs under a rapidly changing climate and can guide purposeful reef restoration.

Coastal warming under climate change: Global, faster and heterogeneous

The assessment of expected changes in coastal sea surface temperature (SST) on a global scale is becoming increasingly important due to the growing pressure on coastal ecosystems caused by climate change. To achieve this objective, 17 Global Climate Models from CMIP6 were used, with data from historical and hist-1950 experiments spanning 1982–2050. This analysis highlights significant warming of coastal areas worldwide, with higher and more variable rates of warming than observed in previous decades. All basins are projected to experience an increase in coastal SST near 1 °C by mid-century, with some regions exhibiting nearshore SST anomalies exceeding 2 °C for the period 2031–2050 relative to 1995–2014. Regarding the Eastern Upwelling Boundary Systems, only the Canary upwelling system and the southern part of the Humboldt upwelling system manage to show lower-than-average SST warming rates, maintaining, to a certain extent, their ability to buffer global warming.