Increase In Sea Surface Temperature Research Articles

Online Learning of Entrainment Closures in a Hybrid Machine Learning Parameterization

AbstractThis work integrates machine learning into an atmospheric parameterization to target uncertain mixing processes while maintaining interpretable, predictive, and well‐established physical equations. We adopt an eddy‐diffusivity mass‐flux (EDMF) parameterization for the unified modeling of various convective and turbulent regimes. To avoid drift and instability that plague offline‐trained machine learning parameterizations that are subsequently coupled with climate models, we frame learning as an inverse problem: Data‐driven models are embedded within the EDMF parameterization and trained online in a one‐dimensional vertical global climate model (GCM) column. Training is performed against output from large‐eddy simulations (LES) forced with GCM‐simulated large‐scale conditions in the Pacific. Rather than optimizing subgrid‐scale tendencies, our framework directly targets climate variables of interest, such as the vertical profiles of entropy and liquid water path. Specifically, we use ensemble Kalman inversion to simultaneously calibrate both the EDMF parameters and the parameters governing data‐driven lateral mixing rates. The calibrated parameterization outperforms existing EDMF schemes, particularly in tropical and subtropical locations of the present climate, and maintains high fidelity in simulating shallow cumulus and stratocumulus regimes under increased sea surface temperatures from AMIP4K experiments. The results showcase the advantage of physically constraining data‐driven models and directly targeting relevant variables through online learning to build robust and stable machine learning parameterizations.

Contrasting Response of Mesoscale Convective Systems Occurrence Over Tropical Land and Ocean to Increased Sea Surface Temperature

AbstractMesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are pivotal in global energy/water cycles and typically produce extreme weather events. Despite their importance, our understanding of their future change remains limited, largely due to inadequate representation in current climate models. Here, using a global storm‐resolving model that accurately simulates MCSs, we conclude contrasting responses to increased SST in their occurrence, that is, notable decreases over land but increases over ocean. This land‐ocean contrast is attributed to the changes in convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN). Over land, notable rises in CIN alongside moderate increases in CAPE effectively suppress (favor) weak to moderate (intense) MCSs, resulting in an overall reduction in MCS occurrences. In contrast, substantial increases in CAPE with minimal changes in CIN over ocean contribute to a significant rise in MCS occurrences. The divergent response in MCS occurrence has profound impacts on both mean and extreme precipitation.

Impact of ENSO on Cloud Distribution and Rainfall Variability in Tangerang Regency

A type of climate variation in the Pacific Ocean known as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is defined by an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) in the Central and Eastern equatorial areas, which affects the amount of rainfall that falls and increases. In Indonesia, the rainy season typically persists from October to March, whereas the dry season persists from April to September. Research on the influence of ENSO on rainfall has been carried out in several areas, but has not been carried out in the Tangerang area. This study aims to ascertain how the ENSO phenomena affect rainfall fluctuations and cloud distribution in the Regency of Tangerang. The secondary data, which includes information on rainfall, cloud cover, wind direction, and speed, was acquired from BMKG Meteorology Budiarto. In addition, data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) website's Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was used. Surface weather analysis and Pearson correlation analysis are the data analysis techniques used. The results presented that based on surface weather study, ENSO events had a consequence on cloud distribution in Tangerang Regency. The clouds lead when the ENSO phenomenon occurs, namely Cumulus and Nimbostratus clouds with a 4-8 octa cloud cover. Meanwhile, the correlation test results show that ENSO influences seasonal and annual rainfall variations in the district of Tangerang. The largest correlation between SOI and annual rainfall occurred in 2015 with a correlation value of r-0.84 (very strong). Meanwhile, the greatest correlation between SOI and seasonal rainfall occurred in July-September with a correlation value of r=0.67 (strong).

Unveiling the Relationship Between Mediterranean Tropical‐Like Cyclones and Rising Sea Surface Temperature

AbstractLeveraging the Copernicus high‐resolution multi‐year Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) dataset, 15 selected tropical‐like cyclones (TLCs) are analyzed with the objective of elucidating the anomalies of SST at the time of cyclogenesis and the connection between the change in SST during the cyclone lifetime and its characteristics. The long‐term SST increase associated with climate change is identified by comparing detrended and original anomalies. Detrending removes the effect of the intensification of SST anomaly over time, revealing that no significant anomalies generally emerge in the early stages of the TLC lifetimes. Conversely, winter events exhibit early‐stage positive SST anomalies. Also, high SST values were observed during the intensification of the most intense cyclones. A cold SST anomaly is left after the passage of the cyclones, due to the intense sea surface fluxes extracting heat from the sea.

A Graphic Review of Studies on Ocean and Mediterranean Sea Environment Quality

With so many studies today on the water quality of the sea, one can hardly comprehend the multitude of topics that arise all over the world. This study provides a few graphic syntheses related to the most frequent words (including their clustering and links), trend topics, the spatial distribution of the researched areas, and the thematic evolution of the research directions over the decades. The most frequent authors’ keywords have a 50% similitude between the ocean studies and the studies related to the Mediterranean Sea; these keywords are part of a causal chain that dominates the marine studies on water quality: nutrients → eutrophication → phytoplankton → chlorophyll → seagrass. The most frequent words in the titles and abstracts of the selected papers from the Web of Science are “concentration” and “species”; in the Mediterranean studies, “chlorophyll” and “temperature” are the most frequent. In close connection with water quality, Zostera marina (eelgrass) and Crassotrea virginica (eastern oyster) prevail at the global scale, while Posidonia oceanica (Neptune grass) is relevant in the Mediterranean space. Some of the most studied water bodies are the South China Sea, San Francisco Bay, Chesapeake Bay, and, in the Mediterranean Sea, the Adriatic, Ionian, Aegean, and Marmara seas. “Climate change” and “remote sensing” are trend topics that shape the current studies on water quality; the increasing sea surface temperature enhances algal blooms—these need to be monitored using satellite imagery for the sustainable evolution of human activities, including aquaculture.

Multidecadal underwater surveys reveal declines in marine turtles

AbstractMarine turtles are a group of imperiled marine megafauna particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic stressors. Most long‐term studies of marine turtles are based on nesting surveys which focus on numbers of eggs, hatchlings, and nesting females. However, we know less about long‐term abundance trends of immature and adult turtles in the marine environment. To address this data gap, we examined records from 35,000 underwater visual census (UVC) dives (1993–2019) and short‐term in‐water turtle survey data (2009–2014) at Cocos Island, Costa Rica. During UVCs, trained divemasters from UnderSea Hunter recorded observations of two species of marine turtles—green Chelonia mydas and hawksbill Eretmochelys imbricata. Our short‐term in‐water surveys revealed that most turtles at Cocos are greens, but both immature and mature greens occur at Cocos. We analyzed long‐term UVC data using a hierarchical modeling approach and we modeled a 26% decrease in the relative abundance of turtles observed on dives each year. Our model also revealed potential interactions between tiger sharks and turtles, finding that for each additional tiger shark present during a dive, the predicted relative abundance of turtles decreased by 43%. Lastly, our model suggested the influence of environmental variation on marine turtle relative abundance; a 1°C increase in sea surface temperature (SST) decreased the predicted relative abundance of turtles by 7%. Our results suggest that marine turtles are sensitive to long‐term environmental and oceanographic changes, and potentially avoid certain areas to reduce exposure to tiger sharks. Given our study area is already protected, there needs to be more focus on protecting adult turtles during their movements across the Eastern Tropical Pacific. Our work also highlights the importance of long‐term underwater surveys to monitor adult turtles.

C:N stoichiometry and the fate of organic carbon in ecosystems of the northwest Pacific Ocean

Phytoplankton elemental composition regulates the efficiency of energy and material transfer in the interface between phytoplankton and their consumers. The ratio of particulate organic carbon to particulate organic nitrogen (POC:PON) shows considerable regional deviations from the canonical Redfield ratio in the global surface ocean. However, in certain oceanic regions such as the northwest Pacific Ocean (NWPO) POC:PON distribution and its ecological significance remain uncertain. We investigated surface ocean POC:PON distributions at 66 stations in the NWPO, and quantified the correlations between POC:PON and multiple biotic and abiotic factors including sea surface temperature (SST), nutrient concentrations and multiple lipid biomarkers (fatty acids and sterols), by combining correlation analyses and generalized additive models. POC:PON (range: 3.53–14.18 M ratios; median: 6.89) was overall higher in the (sub)tropical biome than that in the high-latitude biome. In the entire study region, SST, nutrient concentration and lipid-derived phytoplankton community structure explained 41 %, 33 % and 26 % of the variance in POC:PON, respectively, while the respective importance of each factor differed between the (sub)tropical and high-latitude biomes. Furthermore, we calculated the percentage of primary production consumed by herbivores (PPC; 54–156 %), showing a higher mean value (117 %) in the high-latitude biome and a lower one (92 %) in the (sub)tropical biome. The spatial distribution pattern of PPC can be attributed to multiple factors, with PPC correlating negatively with SST and positively with lipid-based indicators of phytoplankton food quality and POC concentrations. The increase in SST may be associated with a reduced nitrogen content, resulting in lower PPC in the (sub)tropical biome. This study highlights the significance of SST and elemental and biochemical composition of phytoplankton in regulating the transfer of organic carbon to herbivores in the NWPO.

Long‐Term Variability of Phytoplankton Primary Production in the Ulleung Basin, East Sea/Japan Sea Using Ocean Color Remote Sensing

AbstractIn recent years, significant changes in environmental conditions and marine ecosystems have been observed in the East Sea/Japan Sea. This study investigates the long‐term environmental dynamics and phytoplankton responses in the Ulleung Basin, situated in the southwestern East Sea/Japan Sea, utilizing satellite and in situ data from 2002 to 2021. Over this period, there was a noticeable increase in sea surface temperature (SST) (r = 0.5739, p < 0.01), accompanied by decreasing mixed layer depth (MLD) and chlorophyll‐a (Chl‐a) concentration (r = −0.6193 and −0.6721, respectively; p < 0.01). Nutrient concentrations within the upper 50 m significantly declined for nitrate and phosphate. A reduction in the N:P ratio indicated a shift from phosphorus‐limited to nitrogen‐limited environment. Moreover, primary production (PP) demonstrated a decreasing trend (r = −0.5840, p < 0.01), coinciding with an increase in small phytoplankton contribution (r = 0.6399, p < 0.01). Rising SST potentially altered the water column's vertical structure, hindering nutrient entrainment from the deep ocean. Consequently, this nutrient limitation may increase small phytoplankton contribution, resulting in a decline in total PP. Under the IPCC's SSP5‐8.5 scenario, small phytoplankton contribution in the Ulleung Basin is projected to rise by over 10%, resulting in a 29% average PP decrease by 2100. This suggests a diminishing energy supply to the food web in a warming ocean, impacting higher trophic levels and major fishery resources. These findings emphasize the critical need for understanding and monitoring these environmental shifts for effective fisheries management and marine ecosystem conservation.

Impact of Alaska atmospheric blocking on the carbon flux in the Northeast Pacific Ocean

The Northeast Pacific Ocean (NEP) is one of the important carbon sinks in the global ocean. The causes of carbon flux changes in this region have been widely studied, but the physical processes associated with large scale climate variability remain controversial primarily due to scarcity of spatially and temporally continuous observations. In this study, we constructed a high-resolution sea surface partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) from satellite observations for the NEP from 2003 to 2020 using the machine learning based XGBoost model. By analyzing the interannual large-scale high-latitude atmospheric dynamics and ocean physical conditions over the NEP, we find that the CO2 flux density (FCO2) anomalies have a strong correlation with the Alaskan atmospheric blocking events. In the region north of 48°N, anomalous cyclones triggered by atmospheric blocking increased sea surface height (SSH), which reduced the replenishment of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from deep seawater, leading to enhanced carbon uptake. By contrast, in the region south of 48°N, the increase in sea surface temperature (SST) triggered by atmospheric blocking reduced the solubility of CO2 in seawater, resulting in a decrease in regional carbon flux. These results provide new perspectives for better understanding and predicting the effects of high-latitude atmospheric dynamics on regional ocean carbon fluxes.

Back to the past: long-term persistence of bull kelp forests in the Strait of Georgia, Salish Sea, Canada

The Salish Sea, a dynamic system of straits, fjords, and channels in southwestern British Columbia, is home to ecologically and culturally important bull kelp (Nereocystis luetkeana) forests. Yet the long-term fluctuations in the area and the persistence of this pivotal coastal marine habitat are unknown. Using very high-resolution satellite imagery to map kelp forests over two decades, we present the spatial changes in kelp forest area within the Salish Sea, before (2002 to 2013) and after (2014 to 2022) the ‘Blob,’ an anomalously warm period in the Northeast Pacific. This analysis was spatially constrained by local environmental conditions. Based on nearshore sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from four decades (1984–2022), we found two periods of distinct increases in SST, one starting in 2000 and another in 2014. Further, the highest SST anomalies occurred on warmer coastlines in the enclosed inlets and the Strait of Georgia, while smaller anomalies were found on colder coastlines near the Strait of Juan de Fuca and the Discovery Passage. The total area of bull kelp forests from 2014 to 2022 has decreased compared to 2002 to 2013, particularly in the northern sector of the Salish Sea. Using the satellite-derived kelp data, we also present an analysis of kelp persistence compared with historical distribution of kelp forests depicted on British Admiralty Nautical Charts from 1858 to 1956. This analysis shows that warm, sheltered areas experienced a considerable decrease in persistence of kelp beds when compared to satellite-derived distribution of modern kelp, confirming a century-scale loss. In particular, the presence of kelp forests in the Strait of Georgia and on the warmest coasts has decreased considerably over the century, likely due to warming temperatures. While the coldest coasts to the south have maintained their centennial persistence, the northern Salish Sea requires further research to understand its current dynamics. This research contributes to a wider understanding of temporal and spatial factors for kelp from the regional perspective of the Salish Sea.

Long-term responses of phytoplankton biomass to the ocean surface variables in the central parts of the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal

The northern Indian Ocean has been warming steadily for over a half-century, especially the north-western Indian Ocean. It is widely reported that the increasing sea surface temperature in the global oceans decreases phytoplankton biomass and productivity. The impacts of long-term variations in the sea surface properties on the phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a) are least studied in the northern Indian Ocean. In this study, we have retrieved satellite, model, and ARGO float data sets to investigate the long-term variations in the distributions and trends of major oceanic variables for a better understanding of the respective changes that occurred in chlorophyll a concentration in the central regions of the Arabian Sea (AS) and the Bay of Bengal (BB). We have selected variables such as sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), photosynthetically available radiation (PAR), euphotic depth (ZEU), mixed layer depth (MLD), wind speed, mean sea level anomaly (MSLA), surface currents, etc., to relate with chlorophyll a. We found significant increasing trends in SST and positive-MSLA in both basins, and the chlorophyll a was decreased in the AS but contrastingly increased in the BB. Further data analysis revealed the possible reasons, such as seasonal changes in mean sea level anomaly and meridional currents, for the increasing trend of chlorophyll a in the central Bay of Bengal. The northward flow of the meridional currents during the southwest monsoon (SWM), transports the nutrient-rich water from the coastal upwelling zone of the southwest coast of India to the southern and central BB, and enhances chlorophyll a. Contrastingly, the southward flow of low-saline and nutrient-depleted Bay of Bengal water reduces the chlorophyll a. In addition, the large area of cold-core eddies found during the NEM enhanced the chlorophyll a in the central BB. Though contrasting trends between both basins in chlorophyll a distribution were found, the mean concentration of chlorophyll a in the northern Indian Ocean decreases. The present study signifies the importance of monsoon currents and eddies in regulating the chlorophyll a biomass and primary productivity in the AS and BB.

Holocene extreme flood events in the middle reaches of the Lancang‒Mekong River basin recorded by a high-altitude lake in southwestern China

The Lancang‒Mekong River (LMR) basin is a region particularly susceptible to floods induced by extreme precipitation. However, owing to limited historical flood records, it is difficult to understand the processes and mechanisms of extreme floods in the LMR basin. In the present study, sediments from a high-altitude lake (Lake Baima, 4700 m above sea level) located in the upper-middle reaches of the LMR are used to reconstruct climate and hydrology variability since the last deglaciation based on a range of climate proxies and methods, including loss-on-ignition, grain size, X-ray diffraction, and X-ray fluorescence. Through the investigation of modern and historical floods in the LMR basin, we combine the climate proxies with hydrological frequency curves to reconstruct the paleoflood sequence during the Holocene. Our results suggest that the temperature and precipitation in southwestern China increased during the Holocene compared to the last deglaciation, indicating a response to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer solar insolation. In addition, Holocene sediments of Lake Baima are primarily composed of brown background layers and numerous light yellow/gray event layers. These event layers are further identified as flood events based on sedimentary facies, redness, and main exogenous elements content and their rate of change. The results show that extreme flood events in the LMR basin occurred more frequently during the early and late Holocene, with seven once-in-1000-year floods during the two intervals; while there were low-frequency flood periods during the mid-Holocene. The occurrence of Holocene floods may be related to external forcing, such as the abrupt changes in total solar irradiance (TSI) and volcanic activity, as well as the internal variability of the wider climate system including the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño‒Southern Oscillation (ENSO). When the TSI was low, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Northern Hemisphere shifted northward, and the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) moved eastward, accompanied with a negative phase of the PDO and La Niña-like phase of the ENSO. The air-sea interactions increased sea surface temperatures, leading to high precipitation and increasing flood risk in the LMR basin.

Effect of temperature on the production and degradation of bromoform and other brominated methanes by marine microorganisms

Brominated methanes such as bromoform (CHBr3) are known to be important carriers of bromine from the ocean to the atmosphere. Bromine released from brominated methanes by photolysis has been shown to catalyze ozone depletion. Marine phytoplankton has been reported as a source of CHBr3 and marine bacteria as a sink for CHBr3. The effects of temperature on both CHBr3 production by phytoplankton and CHBr3 degradation by bacteria have yet to be investigated. We investigated the effects of temperature on CHBr3 production and CHBr3 degradation by marine microorganisms. The marine diatom Ditylum brightwellii (CCMP358) was cultured at 15 °C, 20 °C, 24 °C, and 30 °C. The maximum CHBr3 production rate at 24 °C was 1.57–2.39 pmol (μg chlorophyll a)−1 d−1, several times higher than that at 15 °C (0.25–0.41 pmol (μg chlorophyll a)−1 d−1). Higher rates of CHBr3, CHBr2Cl, and CHBrCl2 production were observed in the late exponential phase (and stationary phase) than in the early exponential phase at each temperature. These results suggest that temperature affects the rate of CHBr3 production during plankton growth. We then cultured the marine α-proteobacterium Phaeobacter gallaeciensis (JCM 21319) and the γ-proteobacterium Pseudomonas sp. HKF-4 at 10 °C, 15 °C, 20 °C, and 25 °C for up to 15 days to analyze temperature effects on spiked 13CHBr3 degradation. The degradation rate of 13CHBr3 by P. gallaeciensis increased with increasing temperature from 10 °C to 25 °C. The half-life of 13CHBr3 at 25 °C was about 1.1 d, which is about 6 times shorter than the half-life at 10 °C (about 6.9 d). On the other hand, the change in the half-life of the degradation of 13CHBr3 by HKF-1 was relatively small as the temperature increased from 10 °C (half-life: about 5.5 d) to 25 °C (half-life: about 1.8 d). Considering the rate of CHBr3 production and degradation at each temperature, we estimated how much of the CHBr3 produced by D. brightwellii for 7 days was degraded by the coexisting bacteria and how much remained after 7 days at each temperature. When coexisting with P. gallaeciensis, the residual CHBr3 concentration in the culture was relatively higher at 20–25 °C. Similarly, when coexisting with HKF-4, it was relatively higher at 20–25 °C. To estimate the impact of future warming on CHBr3 concentrations in the oceans, we assume a 5 °C increase in sea surface temperature, with two sea surface temperatures, 15 °C and 20 °C, changing to 20 °C and 25 °C, respectively. Under this assumption, the residual concentration of CHBr3 produced by D. brightwellii in seawater would be “increased” (or, less likely, “no change”) when P. gallaeciensis coexisted in these areas. Similarly, the total amount of CHBr3 residuals produced by D. brightwellii in the seawater areas where HKF-4 coexisted increased as the temperature increased by 5 °C. If, as the present results suggest, there is a temperature effect on microbial CHBr3 production and degradation in the oceans, then future increases in surface seawater temperature could result in an upward trend in CHBr3 concentrations in the open oceans, although such effects would be greatly influenced by both the phytoplankton species and coexisting bacterial species.

Elevated sea surface temperature and enhanced primary productivity during Ocean Anoxic Event 1d in the eastern Tethys: Calcareous nannofossil evidence from southern Tibet, China

Mid-Cretaceous oceanic anoxic events (OAEs) are characterized by major disturbances to the global carbon cycle and are considered ancient analogs for anthropogenic global warming. Among these events, OAE 1d, occurring around the Albian-Cenomanian boundary, remains understudied in the eastern Tethys region, leaving a critical palaeogeographic gap that hampers a global understanding of its impacts. In this paper, we present a detailed record of calcareous nannofossil assemblages from the lower to middle part of the Lengqingre Formation in the Chaqiela section of Gamba, southern Tibet, China. The study interval contains abundant, moderately to well preserved calcareous nannofossil assemblages, with Watznaueria barnesiae, Discorhabdus ignotus, Biscutum constans, and Zeugrhabdotus erectus as the dominant species constituting >50% of the assemblages. These nannofossil assemblages allow the study interval to be constrained to Upper Cretaceous (UC) Biozones UC0 through UC2, with the Albian-Cenomanian boundary located in the lower part of the Lengqingre Formation, and the middle part assigned to Cenomanian in the study area. As such, the position of OAE 1d in this section is accurately determined. Calculated nutrient and temperature indices based on nannofossil species with preferred ecologies reveal significant palaeoceanographic changes across the OAE 1d. These changes show increased abundance of warm-water taxa (e.g., Rhagodiscus asper and Zeugrhabdotus diplogrammus) and high-productivity taxa (e.g., D. ignotus, B. constans, and Z. erectus), suggesting increased sea surface temperature and enhanced productivity during OAE 1d in the southwestern shelf sea of the eastern Tethys Ocean.

Heat stress mediates toxicity of rutile titanium dioxide nanoparticles on fertilisation capacity in the broadcast spawning mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis

Titanium dioxide nanoparticle (nTiO2) pollution of marine environments is rapidly increasing with potentially deleterious effects on wildlife. Yet, the impacts of nTiO2 on reproduction remain poorly understood. This is especially the case for broadcast spawners, who are likely to be more severely impacted by environmental disturbances because their gametes are directly exposed to the environment during fertilisation. In addition, it is unclear whether rising water temperatures will further exacerbate the impact of nTiO2 toxicity. Here, in a series of fertilisation trials, we systematically examine the main and interactive effects of nTiO2 exposure and seawater temperature on fertilisation success in the Mediterranean mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis. Specifically, our fertilisation trials explored whether nTiO2 exposure influences fertilisation rates when (i) eggs alone are exposed, (ii) both sperm and eggs are exposed simultaneously, and (iii) whether increases in seawater temperature interact with nTiO2 exposure to influence fertilisation rates. We also ask whether changes in nTiO2 concentrations influence key sperm motility traits using computer-assisted sperm analysis (CASA). In fertilisation trials for treatment groups (i) and (ii), we found no main effects of nTiO2 at environmentally relevant concentrations of 5, 10 and 50 μg L−1 on fertilisation capacity relative to the control. Consistent with these findings, we found no effect of nTiO2 exposure on sperm motility. However, in treatment group (iii), when fertilisation trials were conducted at higher temperatures (+6 °C), exposure of gametes from both sexes to 10 μg L−1 nTiO2 led to a reduction in fertilisation rates that was significantly greater than when gametes were exposed to elevated temperature alone. These interacting effects of nTiO2 exposure and seawater temperature demonstrate the toxic potential of nTiO2 for fertilisation processes in a system that is likely to be impacted heavily by predicted future increases in sea surface temperatures.

Epidemiological and environmental investigation of the 'big four' Vibrio species, 1994 to 2021: a Baltic Sea retrospective study.

BackgroundThe Vibrio genus comprises several bacterial species present in the Baltic Sea region (BSR), which are known to cause human infections.AimTo provide a comprehensive retrospective analysis of Vibrio-induced infections in the BSR from 1994 to 2021, focusing on the 'big four' Vibrio species - V. alginolyticus, V. cholerae non-O1/O139, V. parahaemolyticus and V. vulnificus - in eight European countries (Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Sweden) bordering the Baltic Sea.MethodsOur analysis includes data on infections, Vibrio species distribution in coastal waters and environmental data received from national health agencies or extracted from scientific literature and online databases. A redundancy analysis was performed to determine the potential impact of several independent variables, such as sea surface temperature, salinity, the number of designated coastal beaches and year, on the Vibrio infection rate.ResultsFor BSR countries conducting surveillance, we observed an exponential increase in total Vibrio infections (n = 1,553) across the region over time. In Sweden and Germany, total numbers of Vibrio spp. and infections caused by V. alginolyticus and V. parahaemolyticus positively correlate with increasing sea surface temperature. Salinity emerged as a critical driver of Vibrio spp. distribution and abundance. Furthermore, our proposed statistical model reveals 12 to 20 unreported cases in Lithuania and Poland, respectively, countries with no surveillance.ConclusionsThere are discrepancies in Vibrio surveillance and monitoring among countries, emphasising the need for comprehensive monitoring programmes of these pathogens to protect human health, particularly in the context of climate change.

Understanding Local Perspectives on Climate Change and Its Impacts on Small-Scale Fishing Communities in Honda Bay, Palawan, Philippines

Climate change's adverse impacts are already evident, particularly in coastal areas. However, local perception that is essential in formulating policies for mitigating its impacts remains limited. Thus, this study evaluated the level of perception of small fishing communities on climate change and its impacts on livelihood and the environment. The data were obtained using a face-to-face survey with the aid of a structured questionnaire. They were interpreted and analyzed using the Likert point scale, descriptive statistics, and chi-square. A total of 308 male fisherfolks participated in the survey. Majority belong to age 51-60 years old (38%) and 61 years old and above (32%). Most of them (65%) finished elementary and generally (94%) rely on fishing for main source of living. As for income, 47% earned an estimated monthly income of Php 2,501-5,000 and 28% got Php 5,001-7,500. Most of the respondents are full-time fishers (89%) for more than 11 years (87%), and fishing within the municipal water (92%). Majority (90%) have an idea about climate change as reflected by their very high score in Likert Perception (24.3±2.3%). The climate change impacts perceived by the respondents include: increasing sea surface temperature (87%); fish are sensitive to changing climate (87%); and fossil fuel consumption contributes to climate change (84%). They said they got the information from TV/ Radio (99%) and social media (10%). The age (p-value < 0.0032) and source of information (p-value < 0.0348) are among the variables with significant relationship to the perception of respondents on climate change impacts. In total, it appears that majority of fishers are aware of the impacts of climates. It is suggested that effective management actions, such as emergency preparedness schemes and livelihood diversification should be explored to address the specific needs of fishing communities that are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Furthermore, an ecosystem-based approach that focuses on socio-economic dynamics and climate-induced changes in assessments and management is essential for the sustainable use of fisheries resources amidst the changing climate.

Unraveling climate trends in the mediterranean: a hybrid machine learning and statistical approach

This study presents a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of sea surface temperatures (SST) and surface air temperatures (TAS) across 15 Mediterranean coastal stations, leveraging centennial-scale data to analyze regional climate dynamics. The modeling framework integrates three sequential phases: data preprocessing, statistical analysis, and advanced machine learning techniques, creating a robust analytical pipeline. The data preprocessing phase harmonizes diverse datasets, addresses missing values, and applies transformations to ensure analytical consistency. The statistical modeling employs the Pettitt test for change point detection and linear trend analysis to unveil underlying patterns. The machine learning phase utilizes K-means clustering for climate regime classification and implements tailored Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) for cluster-specific future climate anomaly projections. Results unveil a marked anthropogenic climate signal, with contemporary observations consistently surpassing historical baselines. Breakpoint analyses and linear trend assessments reveal heterogeneous climatic shifts, with pronounced warming in the northern Mediterranean. Notably, Nice and Ajaccio exhibit the highest SST increases (0.0119 and 0.0113 °C/decade, respectively), contrasting with more modest trends in Alexandria (0.0052 °C/decade) and Antalya (0.0047 °C/decade) in the eastern Mediterranean. The application of clustering and CNN projections provides granular insights into differential warming trajectories. By 2050, cooler northwestern Mediterranean zones are projected to experience dramatic SST anomalies of approximately 3 °C above the average, with corresponding TAS increases of 2.5 °C. In contrast, warmer eastern and southern regions display more subdued warming patterns, with projected SST and TAS increases of 1.5–2.5 °C by mid-century. This research’s importance is highlighted by its potential to inform tailored adaptation strategies and contribute to the theoretical understanding of climate dynamics, advancing climate modeling and analysis efforts.

Impact of river-discharged freshwater on surface ocean environments revealed by synergistic use of satellite measurements in the East China Sea

River discharge forms a plume of low-salinity water that spreads offshore, delivering terrestrial substances into the ocean and thus plays a critical role in controlling marine environments as well as the carbon cycle. This study investigated how freshwater discharged from the Changjiang impacts the physical and biological responses and oceanic uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the northern East China Sea (ECS) by combining the recently available sea surface salinity (SSS) product from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission with other satellite measurements of sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a (chl-a) concentration. The partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) and its interannual variability were estimated using empirical regression with satellite-derived environmental variables. The bias-corrected SMAP SSS revealed that river discharge largely contributed to the distinct interannual SSS variations, with a seasonal cycle reaching a maximum in winter and a minimum in summer. Compared to the SST and chl-a anomalies, we observed an increase in SST and primary production in the region where sea surface freshening was robust. Freshwater from rivers contributes to sea surface warming by trapping heat from the atmosphere at the surface layer. Nutrient-enriched freshwater within the buoyant plume enhances phytoplankton production, which in turn enriches the ocean surface with chl-a. Simultaneously, the pCO2 was relatively low in the region where the SST and primary production were high, highlighting that the heat and riverine nutrients trapped within the buoyant plume contributed to the reduction in pCO2 by promoting the biological uptake of CO2. The estimates conducted here illustrate the synergistic utility of multiple satellite measurements for the evaluation of CO2 uptake capacity, complemented by in situ measurements of river-dominated marginal seas.

Global warming and coastal protected areas: A study on phytoplankton abundance and sea surface temperature in different regions of the Brazilian South Atlantic Coastal Ocean.

In this study, we examined the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and phytoplankton abundance in coastal regions of the Brazilian South Atlantic: São Paulo, Paraná, and Santa Catarina, and the Protection Area of Southern right whales (Eubalaena australis) in Santa Catarina (APA), a conservation zone established along 130 km of coastline. Using SST and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) data from 2002 to 2023, we found significant differences in SST between the regions, with São Paulo having the highest SST, followed by Paraná and Santa Catarina. All locations showed a consistent increase in SST over the years, with North Santa Catarina, APA and São Paulo experiencing the lowest rate of increase. Correlation analyses between SST and Chl-a revealed a stronger inverse relationship in North Santa Catarina and APA, indicating an increased response of Chl-a to SST variations in this region. The presence of protected area appears to play an essential role in reducing the negative impacts of increasing SST. Specifically, while there is a wealth of research on the consequences of global warming on diverse coastal and oceanic areas, heterogeneity among different settings persists and the causes for this necessitating attention. Our findings have implications for both localized scientific approaches and broader climate policies, emphasizing the importance of considering coastal ecosystem resilience to climate change in future conservation and adaptation strategies.