Increase In Inflation Rate Research Articles

How Does the Budget Deficit Affect Inflation Rate – Evidence from Western Balkans Countries

The main purpose of this study is to investigate if determinants that we selected in our analysis have any effects on inflation rate in Western Balkans Countries[1] by using panel data for the period of 2001-2017, in yearly basis in total of 102 observation. The study used quantitative analysis approach and secondary data by applying the multivariate time series, respectively vector error correction model [VECM]. Multivariate time series was applied to investigate whether the budget deficit and other explanatory variable have any significant impact on inflation rate. The results from our analysis shows that three of four determinates that we used are significant on inflation rate. The model summaries statistics for inflation rate which shows that inflation rate has a moderate correlation with explanatory variables that we used in our model, that explanatory variables explain 45.5 percent of dependent variable and we can conclude that a model is a proper and fit. The results suggest that one percent point increase in budget deficit to GDP ratio is associated with about a 9.34 percent point increase in inflation rate. The overall inference is that the ratios that we selected has a significant influence on the inflation rate in Western Balkans Countries. 
 
 [1] Western Balkans Countries: Albania, Bosnia & Hercegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia.

التضخم والعوامل المؤثرة فيه ( دراسة قياسية تركيا أنموذجاً 1980-2013 )

يعد التضخم من أهم المشاكل الاقتصادية التي تواجه معظم اقتصاديات دول العالم، النامية والمتقدمة على السواء، وذلك لتأثيره العميق والمتشعب لكافة فئات المجتمع والقطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة من الافراد وقطاع الاعمال والقطاع الحكومي . وقد شهدت العقود الماضية ارتفاعات ملحوظة في معدلات التضخم العالمية وصلت في بعض الدول إلى ضعفين او اكثر، مما أثر سلباً في تذبذب معدلات النمو الاقتصادي. الهدف الرئيسي لهذه الدراسة هو توضيح اسباب التضخم والعوامل المؤثرة فيه في تركيا خلال الفترة 1980-2013 . تناول الجانب النظري تحليل العوامل الخارجية والداخلية المؤثرة في التضخم، بينما تضمن الجانب التطبيقي استخدام العديد من الطرق القياسية الخاصة بالسلاسل الزمنية في مقدمتها التعرف على مدى استقرارية البيانات باستخدام اسلوبي PP, ADF، تبعها الكشف عن ما اذا كان هناك علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات المقدرة مستخدما تقنية جوهانسن جيسليس، ثم التعرف على العلاقة قصيرة الاجل باستخدام نموذج تصحيح الخطا العشوائي ECM، واخيرا حاول الباحث التعرف على إتجاه العلاقة السببية باستخدام طريقة كرانجر والتي تحتل مكانة مهمة جدا لواضعي السياسة الاقتصادية للتعرف على مكامن الاختناقات الاساسية في البرامج الاقتصادية المنفذة. ومن اجل التعرف على تاثير التذبذبات المالية وما تسببه من اختلالات في متغيرات الاقتصاد الكلي فقد قام الباحث باستخدام نموذج ARCH والذي يعتبر هو الافضل في هذا المجال .اهم النتائج التي توصل اليها البحث هي : ان هناك تكامل بين العوامل الداخلية والخارجية في التاثير على مستوى الاسعار وان العلاقة العكسية بين التضخم والبطالة (لمنحى فلبيس) قد تحقق في تركيا.

Money, Cryptocurrency, and Monetary Policy

Can a cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, compete with central bank-issued money as a medium of exchange? We develop a search theoretic model where both money and Bitcoin can be used as a means of payment in transactions, and currency choices are endogenously determined. We analytically study the necessary condition for the coexistence of money and Bitcoin in equilibrium. We also calibrate the model to quantitatively study the effects of monetary policy and an increase in Bitcoin transaction fees on the economic activities and welfare. Our analysis shows that Bitcoin can meaningfully compete with money only when the inflation rate is sufficiently high, and also that the economic welfare in an economy with both money and Bitcoin is lower than that in a money-only economy due to the current inefficient mining process of Bitcoins. The welfare gap between the two economies expands as inflation rate increases. Furthermore, transaction fees for Bitcoins increases welfare in an economy where money and Bitcoin coexist.

Causal Relationship between Interest Rate and Inflation Rate: A study of SAARC Economies

This article focuses on the evaluation of the causal relationship between interest rate and inflation rate in SAARC economies by using panel data ranging from the year 2006 to 2013. The need for this type of research from both dimension are very important. From one side according to macroeconomic issues, the increase in interest rate will lead to increase in the production costs and consequently the level of prices and inflation rate increases. On other hand theoretically it is expected that with increase in level of prices the interest rate will also increase. For the assessment of the causal relationship between interest rate and inflation rate, two scenarios have been identified; in the first scenario the causal relationship between lending interest rate and changes in inflation rate has been tested empirically and in second scenario causal relationship between real interest rate and inflation rate is considered. The obtained results in first scenario show that there is no relationship from changes in inflation rate to the changes in lending rate but in second scenario, the results are dual in nature showing the cause and effect relationship between real interest rate and inflation rate.

IMPACT OF PETROLEUM PRODUCT PRICE ON HUMAN WELFARE IN NIGERIA

The single most important issue confronting a growing number of world economies today is the price of oil and its attendant consequences on economic output. Therefore the study investigated the impact of petroleum pump price on human welfare in Nigeria over the period 1990 to 2015. The study employed expost facto research design. Secondary time series data were used for the study and these were sourced from World Development Indicator (WDI, 2015) and Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin, (CBN, 2015). The data collected were analyzed using autoregressive distributed lag. The inferences were drown at 1% and 5% significance level. The result showed that premium motor spirit price and dual purpose kerosene price exert a long-run negative and significant impact on human welfare in Nigeria (β = -0.15299, t = -5.31141 and β = -0.471399, t = -1.8838 respectively) while premium motor spirit price, dual purpose kerosene price and inflation rate exert a short-run negative and significant impact on human welfare in Nigeria (β = -0.71735, t= -4.3766; β = -0.62562, t = -2.9188 and β = -0.050310, t = -2.1829 respectively). The study concluded that as premium motor spirit price and dual purpose kerosene price and inflation rate increases, human welfare will fall and vice versa. Therefore for human welfare to increase, there must be a fall in premium motor spirit price and dual purpose kerosene price and inflation rate in Nigeria. The study recommended that Government and it agencies should ensure that petroleum pump prices should be regulated because they have a long way on the market. An increase in the price of petroleum products will lead to market failure because most products use either of these products. Since inflation rate worsen the welfare of people, the policy maker should find a way of control inflation in the system so that the welfare of the people will improve (better-off).

Re-Examining the Nexus between Exchange and Interest Rates in Nigeria

Nigeria has experienced somersault of foreign exchange policies by the Central Bank. One policy concern in recent times is to have an appropriate target of the exchange and interest rates. Therefore, this paper seeks to provide a foundation for the targeting of an appropriate exchange and interest rates for the country. Using the Johansen Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Mechanism approaches, it specifically examines the relationships among Nigeria’s weak exchange rate, its local rate of interest and world interest rate. Contrary to many studies, a control measure involving inclusion of inflation, money supply and national output in the model is done. The analysis showed an equilibrium association between exchange rate and interest rate-cum-other variables and steady rectification of deviance from long-run stability over a sequence of incomplete short-run modifications. Increase in domestic and world interest rate, inflation, money supply and GDPat equilibrium would strengthen the exchange rate. Besides, further findings showed some bidirectional causal associations among the variables. By long-run implication, the targeting of an appropriate exchange rate in Nigeria requires a tightened monetary policy that is not inflation and growth biased. However, increase in world interest rate, money supply and inflation rate must be moderate in order not to worsen the exchange rate as suggested by the short-run result.

Re-Examining the Nexus between Exchange and Interest Rates in Nigeria

Nigeria has experienced somersault of foreign exchange policies by the Central Bank. One policy concern in recent times is to have an appropriate target of the exchange and interest rates. Therefore, this paper seeks to provide a foundation for the targeting of an appropriate exchange and interest rates for the country. Using the Johansen Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Mechanism approaches, it specifically examines the relationships among Nigeria’s weak exchange rate, its local rate of interest and world interest rate. Contrary to many studies, a control measure involving inclusion of inflation, money supply and national output in the model is done. The analysis showed an equilibrium association between exchange rate and interest rate-cum-other variables and steady rectification of deviance from long-run stability over a sequence of incomplete short-run modifications. Increase in domestic and world interest rate, inflation, money supply and GDPat equilibrium would strengthen the exchange rate. Besides, further findings showed some bidirectional causal associations among the variables. By long-run implication, the targeting of an appropriate exchange rate in Nigeria requires a tightened monetary policy that is not inflation and growth biased. However, increase in world interest rate, money supply and inflation rate must be moderate in order not to worsen the exchange rate as suggested by the short-run result.

“Performance And Emission Characteristic Of A Multicylinder DI Diesel Enginerunning On Diesel And Biofuelsblendedwith Methanol”

As we know that all over the world the diesel vehicle population is growing at an alarming rate. The emission will irritate skin, eyes, nose, and throat and also leads to bronchitis asthma in the long run and has been led to air pollution. It is a serious concern with the pollution point of view. Existing fissile fuel deposits may come for another 40 years and Costs of Fissile Fuels are day by day increasing. Emissions caused by these fissile fuels leads to air pollution. Developing Countries like India depends on its fissile fuel requirement on foreign countries for which spars huge forging currency in purchasing the crude oil, thus the inflation rate increases, rupees valve decreases hence the country economy and development decrease.Hance view of above drawbacks there is urgent need to find an alternative fuel in the existing engines.In view of increasing pressure on crude oil reserves and environmental degradation as an outcome, fuels like Alcohols and vegetable oils may present a sustainable solution as it can be produced from a wide range of plants and seeds.The present investigation evaluates Methanol blended with Rape seed oil, Mango seed oil, Apricot oilin CI Engine. A Twin cylinder C I engine adapted to study the brake thermal efficiency, brake specific energy consumption, and emissions. In this study, the diesel engine was tested using Diesel and Methanol blended with Rape seed oil, Mango seed oil, Apricot oil. From this study the emissions like HC,CO2,CO,NOx,Aldehydes,Smokehas been reduced and Methanol blended with vegetable oils are substitute to diesel fuel.

Determinants of Indonesia Import in 1981-2014

Import becomes one of the components to calculate economic growth. During 1981-2014, a series of variation in Indonesia import has occured. In addition, the increase of GDP, the occurrence of domestic economic shocks, the increase of inflation rate, the increase of population and the increase of total reserves were alleged to influence the variation of Indonesia import. This research aims to analyze the factors affecting Indonesia imports. The variables used in this research are GDP growth, domestic economic shocks, inflation rate, population, and total reserves. Econometric analysis model used in this research is Error Correction Model (ECM). The results of this research reveal several outcomes: (1) the data is stationary at first difference; (2) the data is cointegrated meaning that there is a connection in long-term parameters; and (3) ECT coefficient/speed of adjustment is -0.6881 and significant is at ? = 5% meaning that the model used is valid. The conclusions of this research are: (1) In the short term, domestic economic shocks, inflation rate, population, and total reserves have a significant effect on the Indonesia import; (2) In the long term, inflation rate, population, and total reserves have a significant effect on Indonesia import.

Brexit a sytuacja ekonomiczna Wielkiej Brytanii

Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie wpływu wyniku referendum z 23 czerwca 2016 r. dotyczącego wyjścia Wielkiej Brytanii z Unii Europejskiej na stan gospodarki i finansów tego kraju. Publikacja zawiera przegląd światowej literatury i prasy ekonomicznej odnoszących się do kwestii następstw decyzji Brytyjczyków o opuszczeniu struktur unijnych. W artykule przedstawiono, że wynik referendum przyczynił się do wystąpienia rekordowych poziomów indeksu niepewności polityki gospodarczej (EPU) w Wielkiej Brytanii. Wysoki poziom niepewności ekonomicznej i finansowej wywarł w konsekwencji negatywny wpływ na kondycję brytyjskiej gospodarki. W artykule pokazano wpływ wyniku referendum na wartość brytyjskiej waluty, poziom podstawowych wskaźników makroekonomicznych, poziom aktywności gospodarczej w sektorze wytwórczym oraz sferę finansów publicznych. Kurs funta szterlinga w odniesieniu do dolara amerykańskiego i euro uległ silnej deprecjacji i spadł poniżej poziomów osiąganych w trakcie ataku spekulacyjnego przeprowadzonego przez George’a Sorosa w 1992 r., inwazji na Irak w 2003 r., czy kryzysu finansowego w latach 2008–2009. Wynik referendum można łączyć ze wzrostem inflacji oraz spadkiem tempa wzrostu PKB. Wielka Brytania zdecydowała się na wprowadzenie bardziej ekspansywnej polityki monetarnej poprzez obniżenie poziomu bazowej stopy oraz rozszerzenie programu luzowania ilościowego. Poziom aktywności gospodarczej w sektorze wytwórczym uległ krótkookresowemu obniżeniu w konsekwencji wyniku referendum. Perspektywa Brexitu miała również negatywny wpływ na stan brytyjskich finansów publicznych. Wysokość prognozowanego ujemnego salda finansów publicznych w 2017 r. wzrosła o ponad 30 proc., a minister finansów zmuszony był odstąpić od realizacji ambitnego celu eliminacji deficytu budżetowego do roku fiskalnego 2019–2020.

Comparison of Aldehyde Emissions in Alcohols blended with Vegetable oils fuelled C I engine using with and without Ceramic and Platinum Coated Pistons

Developing Countries like India depends on its fossil fuel requirement on foreign countries for which spars huge forging currency in purchasing the crude oil, thus the inflation rate increases, rupees valve decreases. Hence the country’s economy and development decrease. Hence view of above drawbacks there is urgent need to find an alternative fuel in the existing engines.In view of increasing pressure on crude oil reserves and environmental degradation as an outcome, fuels like Alcohols and vegetable oils may present a sustainable solution as it can be produced from a wide range of plants and seeds.The present investigation evaluates the C I engine adapted along with and without Ceramic and Platinum Coated Pistons to study the Brake thermal efficiency, Brake specific energy consumption, and Aldehydes Emissions. In this study, the diesel engine was tested using Alcohols blended with Vegetable oils. From this study the emissions like Aldehydes has been reduced and found Alcohols blended with Vegetable oils are suitable substitute fuels to diesel

Investigation of a Diesel Engine with Ceramic and platinum coated piston using Canola oil, Soyabean oil and Palm oil blended with Ethanol

As we know that all over the world the diesel vehicle population is growing at an alarming rate. The emission will irritate skin, eyes, nose, and throat and also leads to bronchitis asthma in the long run and has been led to air pollution. It is a serious concern with the pollution point of view. Existing fissile fuel deposits may come for another 40 years and Costs of Fissile Fuels are day by day increasing. Emissions caused by these fissile fuels leads to air pollution. Developing Countries like India depends on its fissile fuel requirement on foreign countries for which spars huge forging currency in purchasing the crude oil, thus the inflation rate increases, rupees valve decreases hence the country economy and development decrease.Hance view of above drawbacks there is urgent need to find an alternative fuel in the existing engines.In view of increasing pressure on crude oil reserves and environmental degradation as an outcome, fuels like Alcohols and vegetable oils may present a sustainable solution as it can be produced from a wide range of plants and seeds.The present investigation evaluates Ethanol blended with canola oil, soyabean oil,plama oil in CI Engine. A Twin cylinder C I engine adapted to study the brake thermal efficiency, brake specific energy consumption, and emissions In this study, the diesel engine was tested using Diesel and Ethanol blended with canola oil, soyabean oil,plama oil. From this study the emissions like HC and CO, NOx, and Aldehydes has been reduced and Ehanol blended with vegetable oils are substitute to diesel fuel.

Design and Development of a New Pistonusing Nimonic Alloy 80A for Low Cetane Fuels usage in CI Engines

In view of the existing fossil fuel deposits may come for another 30 to 40 years and Costs of these Fissile Fuels are day by day increasing. As we know that all over the world the diesel vehicle population is growing at an alarming rate. The emission will irritate skin, eyes, nose and throat and also leads to bronchitis asthma in the long run and has been led to air pollution. It is a serious concern with the pollution point of view. In view of this there is an urgent need for the modifications in the diesel engine technology to suit for emission norms and international standards of emissions norms which do not need major engine modifications. Developing Countries like India depends on its fossil fuel requirements on foreign countries for which spars a huge foreign currency in purchase of crude oil. Thus the inflation rate increases, rupee valve decreases and hence the country’s economy and development decrease. The increasing pressure on crude oil reserves and environmental degradation as an outcome.Hencein view of the above drawbacks there is an urgent need to find an alternative fuels in the existing engines.Fuelslike (Low Cetane Fuels) like Vegetable oils may promise and present a sustainable solution as it can be produced from a wide range of plants and seeds. The present investigation evaluates the Design and Development of a New Piston using Nimonic Alloy 80A for Low Cetane Fuels usage in CI Engines. Design is done using Catia –V 5 software and Production is being done in CNC machining using programming.

Quarterly inflation rate target and forecasts in Romania

In this study, we proposed some inflation rate predictions based on econometric models that performed better than the targets of the National Bank of Romania. Few econometric models (multiple regressions model and a vector-autoregression) were used to predict the quarterly inflation rate in Romania during 2000:Q1-2016:Q4. The GDP growth has a negative impact on inflation rate in Romania, an increase in logarithm of GDP with one percentage point determining a decrease in inflation logarithm with less than 0.1 units according to both proposed models. However, an increase in inflation rate in the previous period determined an increase in this variable in the current period. The inverse of unemployment rate is positively correlated with the index of prices. The causal relationship between inflation rate and unemployment rate is reciprocal. In the first period the index of prices evolution is explained only by changes in this variable. The inflation rate volatility is due mainly to the evolution of this indicator, the influence decreasing insignificantly in time, not descending under 88%. More than 99% of the variation in unemployment rate is explained by the own volatility for all lags. The annual forecasts based on these models performed better than the targets on the horizon 2015-2016.

Quarterly inflation rate target and forecasts in Romania

In this study, we proposed some inflation rate predictions based on econometric models that performed better than the targets of the National Bank of Romania. Few econometric models (multiple regressions model and a vector-autoregression) were used to predict the quarterly inflation rate in Romania during 2000:Q1-2016:Q4. The GDP growth has a negative impact on inflation rate in Romania, an increase in logarithm of GDP with one percentage point determining a decrease in inflation logarithm with less than 0.1 units according to both proposed models. However, an increase in inflation rate in the previous period determined an increase in this variable in the current period. The inverse of unemployment rate is positively correlated with the index of prices. The causal relationship between inflation rate and unemployment rate is reciprocal. In the first period the index of prices evolution is explained only by changes in this variable. The inflation rate volatility is due mainly to the evolution of this indicator, the influence decreasing insignificantly in time, not descending under 88%. More than 99% of the variation in unemployment rate is explained by the own volatility for all lags. The annual forecasts based on these models performed better than the targets on the horizon 2015-2016.

The Influence of Financial Performance, Capital Structure and Macroeconomic Factors on Firm’s Value – Evidence from Textile Companies at Indonesia Stock Exchange

This study aims to investigate how financial performance, capital structure and macroeconomic factors may influence a firm’s value in Indonesia textile industry. This research is exploratory in nature involving 20 textile companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). Using panel data regression, the results show that financial performance, capital structure, inflation and exchange rate are contributory factors that influence firm’s value. The better the financial performance of a company, the higher its value will be. The study also reveals that ratio of short term debt to total assets has no significant impact on firm’s value, while there is a positive significant relationship between the ratio of long term debt to total assets and firm’s value. Interestingly, depreciation in Indonesia Rupiah and increase in inflation rate would also enhance the firm’s value. As far as Indonesian textile industry is concerned, the findings suggest that capital structure, increased financial performance, higher inflation rate and depreciating Rupiah do influence the textile company’s value.

Levelized Electricity Cost of Five Solar Photovoltaic Plants of Different Capacities

This paper deals with the calculation of Levelized Electricity Cost (LEC) of five Solar Photovoltaic power (SPV) plants of different capacities 1MW, 5MW, 10MW, 25MW and 130MW. The calculation has been performed from the power generated data of the year 2014. The effect of different parameters like interest rate, inflation rate, deprecation time (plant life) and cumulative utilization factor (CUF), on LEC have been analyzed. A comparative study of the plants is done by varying these parameters. Operation and maintenance cost has been assumed 1% of the capital cost. It has been observed that LEC increases with increase in both inflation rate and interest rate. However, the influence of inflation rate on LEC is more. LEC decreases with increase in plant life and cumulative utilization factor. SPV plants established earlier have higher LEC compared to that of plants established later due to reduction in cost of SPV module prices over the years.

DYNAMIC MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF URBAN SPATIAL PATTERN (RESIDENTIAL CHOICE OF LOCATION): MOBILITY VS EXTERNALITY

Household’s residential choice of location determines urban spatial pattern (e.g sprawl). The static model which assumes that the choice has been affected by distance to the CBD and location specific externality, fails to capture the evoution of the pattern over time. Therefore this study proposes a dynamic version of the model. It analyses the effects of externalities on the optimal solution of development decision as function of time. It also derives the effect of mobility and externality on the rate of change of development pattern through time. When the increasing rate of utility is not as significant as the increasing rate of income, the externalities will delay the change of urban spatial pattern over time. If the mobility costs increase by large amount relative to the increase of income and inflation rate, then the mobility effect dominates the effects of externalities in delaying the urban expansion.

DYNAMIC MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF URBAN SPATIAL PATTERN (RESIDENTIAL CHOICE OF LOCATION): MOBILITY VS EXTERNALITY

Household’s residential choice of location determines urban spatial pattern (e.g sprawl). The static model which assumes that the choice has been affected by distance to the CBD and location specific externality, fails to capture the evoution of the pattern over time. Therefore this study proposes a dynamic version of the model. It analyses the effects of externalities on the optimal solution of development decision as function of time. It also derives the effect of mobility and externality on the rate of change of development pattern through time. When the increasing rate of utility is not as significant as the increasing rate of income, the externalities will delay the change of urban spatial pattern over time. If the mobility costs increase by large amount relative to the increase of income and inflation rate, then the mobility effect dominates the effects of externalities in delaying the urban expansion.

DYNAMIC MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF URBAN SPATIAL PATTERN (RESIDENTIAL CHOICE OF LOCATION): MOBILITY VS EXTERNALITY

Household’s residential choice of location determines urban spatial pattern (e.g sprawl). The static model which assumes that the choice has been affected by distance to the CBD and location specific externality, fails to capture the evoution of the pattern over time. Therefore this study proposes a dynamic version of the model. It analyses the effects of externalities on the optimal solution of development decision as function of time. It also derives the effect of mobility and externality on the rate of change of development pattern through time. When the increasing rate of utility is not as significant as the increasing rate of income, the externalities will delay the change of urban spatial pattern over time. If the mobility costs increase by large amount relative to the increase of income and inflation rate, then the mobility effect dominates the effects of externalities in delaying the urban expansion.