Increased Frequency Of Droughts Research Articles

On the land-atmosphere interaction in the summer monsoon transition zone in East Asia

There are various types of climate transitional zones on the earth’s surface. The East Asian summer monsoon transition zone (EASMTZ) has attracted much attention due to its multiple roles. It is where most of the semi-arid regions locate in China, and semi-arid climate is unstable relative to the arid climate to its north and humid climate to its south. Therefore, EASMTZ is very sensitive to climate changes, and its land-atmosphere interaction (LA-I) is active and crucial. The LA-I is significantly affected by the complex land surface conditions and closely related to the summer monsoon climate dynamics. The LA-I and its response to summer monsoon activities is thus complicated. It includes multi-feedback mechanisms, which involve the land surface thermal-hydrological-ecological couplings, multi-interface exchanges from near surface to the free atmosphere. These feedbacks are sensitive to the summer monsoon activities. Based on a summary of the unique characteristics of EASMTZ and the main research progresses in LA-I in recent years, the issues related to LA-I are discussed in this region. Finally, the key scientific issues faced by the LA-I are proposed, and the future focuses are summarized. This work should help for the future study on the LA-I and its response to summer monsoon activities in the EASMTZ, which should contribute to the understanding of the increasing drought frequency associated with the significant warming trend in this region.

Recharge Estimation Using CMB and Environmental Isotopes in the Verlorenvlei Estuarine System, South Africa and Implications for Groundwater Sustainability in a Semi-Arid Agricultural Region

Groundwater recharge remains one of the most difficult hydrogeological variables to measure accurately, especially for semi-arid environments where the recharge flux is much smaller than in humid conditions. In this study, groundwater recharge was estimated using chloride mass balance (CMB) in the Verlorenvlei catchment, South Africa where the effects of recent severe drought conditions in an already semi-arid environment have impacted both agricultural activity as well as the RAMSAR-listed Verlorenvlei estuarine system. Chloride, 18O and 2H tracers were used to improve understanding of the groundwater flow patterns and allowed the fresh parts of the groundwater system, defined by Ca2+-HCO3− groundwater types, to be separated from those where additional salts were being introduced through groundwater mixing, and thus characterized as Na+-Cl− groundwater types. Recharge rates calculated from CMB in the fresh parts of the system were between 4.2–5.6% and 11.4–15.1% of mean annual precipitation for the headwater valley and mountains of the Krom Antonies and are largely consistent with previous studies. However, much lower recharge rates in the valleys where agriculture is dominant contrasts with previous results, which were higher, since groundwater-mixing zones were not recognised. Although the chloride concentration in precipitation is based on only one year of data between 2015 and 2016, where 2015 had on average 28% less precipitation than 2016, the results provide a snapshot of how the system will respond to increasing drought frequency in the future. The results suggest that low rates of groundwater recharge under dry spell conditions will impact on low flow generations which are required to sustain the Verlorenvlei estuarine lake system. Overall, the study highlights the importance of combining hydrochemical tracers such as bulk chloride and stable isotopes with numerical modelling in data-scarce catchments to fully understand the nature of hydrological resilience.

Tree Neighbourhood Diversity Has Negligible Effects on Drought Resilience of European Beech, Silver Fir and Norway Spruce

Promoting tree species diversity is commonly advocated in the anticipation of predicted increases in drought frequency and severity. However, mixing effects on drought responses vary substantially with site conditions and species identity. We combined annually resolved tree-ring data and repeated forest inventory data spanning the last 90 years to examine the effect of species-specific neighbourhood competition on the drought response (resistance, recovery and resilience) of European beech (Fagus sylvatica), silver fir (Abies alba) and Norway spruce (Picea abies) for six drought events that occurred since the 1970s at three sites in Switzerland. We found predominantly weak neighbourhood competition and tree species diversity effects, with significant interspecific influences only for resistance and recovery of beech. These minor neighbourhood effects were outweighed by tree age and size effects. Although age effects depended on species identity and components of resilience, tree size consistently negatively affected all species. Our results emphasize that diversity effects may vary for each given species combination which makes broader conclusions challenging. This is because species interact through their specific set of traits and interactions vary in space and time. Adaptive management strategies are likely to be more effective when they promote more drought-tolerant species and reductions in stand density. Despite the absence of an unequivocal advantage of tree diversity on drought resilience, striving towards species-rich forests nonetheless allows for a risk spreading among multiple species and the reinforced provision of numerous ecosystem services.

Environmental Factors Influencing Hairy‐Nosed Wombat Abundance in Semi‐Arid Rangelands

ABSTRACTUnderstanding environmental factors influencing the abundance of species is important for developing strategies to manage wildlife effectively. Long‐term studies provide the most reliable information upon which to base management decisions. This is particularly important when considering threatening processes, like drought and climate change, and a species' future security. We collected data on abundance of southern hairy‐nosed wombats (Lasiorhinus latifrons) on Kooloola Station in South Australia's Murraylands during nightly spot‐lighting excursions in winter and spring between 1993 and 2014. Wombat numbers declined significantly after the early‐mid 1990s, and were lowest in 2002–2003 in the middle of the millennium drought (late 1996–mid‐2010). Despite an observed decline in grazing competition from domestic sheep and rabbits (Oryctolagus cunniculus) after 2003 and above‐average rainfall in 5 of the next 11 years, the wombat population failed to recover to early–mid‐1990s levels, remaining at approximately 50% of estimated abundance pre‐drought. The study provides evidence that rainfall has a significant effect on southern hairy‐nosed wombat population size, most likely through improvements in the availability of palatable plant species. Historical information suggests that there was a change in the grass and herbaceous layer on Kooloola Station in the mid‐1970s from a pasture dominated by summer‐germinating native grass and forb species, the natural diet of the southern hairy‐nosed wombat, to one dominated by winter‐germinating introduced weeds. Several consecutive years of above‐average rainfall are needed before effective wombat population increase occurs and the size of yearly winter and spring rainfall events is strongly linked to population trends the following year. Historical information and first‐hand observations suggest that dietary components (either native grasses or introduced weed species) and level of grazing competition may also interact to affect wombat survival and population recovery from drought, although this requires further testing. Together with rainfall, these factors have important implications to develop appropriate conservation and management strategies for this species in a changing climate likely to be dominated by increased drought frequency and duration. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.

Perceptions of Climate Change and Drivers of Insect Pest Outbreaks in Vegetable Crops in Limpopo Province of South Africa

Vegetable production is a source of income for smallholder farmers in Limpopo Province, South Africa. Vegetable production is constrained by the negative impacts of climate change and pests. This study assessed farmers’ awareness of climate change, farmers’ knowledge of insect pests and factors that influence insect pests’ prevalence. The data were collected using quantitative and qualitative methods. The data were subjected to descriptive and bivariate analysis. About 84.5% of smallholder farmers were aware of climate change. Late rainfall (24.4%), long dry spells (15%) and increased drought frequency (19.4%) were highlighted as dominant indicators of climate change by farmers. Aphids (22.2%), Bagrada hilaris (12.5%) and Spodoptera frugiperda (10.2%) were the most prevalent insect pests within the Vhembe District. Warmer winters, dry spells and high temperatures were perceived by farmers to influence insect pests’ prevalence within the district. It can be concluded that farmers are aware of climate change and climatic factors influencing pest prevalence within the district. Pest risk maps are needed to improve the preparedness of the government and farmers in controlling insect pests under changing climates.

El Niño–Related Tropical Land Surface Water and Energy Response in MERRA-2

AbstractAlthough El Niño events each have distinct evolutionary character, they typically provide systematic large-scale forcing for warming and increased drought frequency across the tropical continents. We assess this response in the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), reanalysis and in a 10-member-model Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) ensemble. The lagged response (3–4 months) of mean tropical land temperature to El Niño warming in the Pacific Ocean is well represented. MERRA-2 reproduces the patterns of precipitation in the tropical regions, and the AMIP ensemble reproduces some regional responses that are similar to those observed and some regions that are not simulating the response well. Model skill is dependent on event forcing strength and temporal proximity to the peak of the sea surface warming. A composite approach centered on maximum Niño-3.4 SSTs and lag relationships to energy fluxes and transports is used to identify mechanisms supporting tropical land warming. The composite necessarily moderates weather-scale variability of the individual events while retaining the systematic features across all events. We find that reduced continental upward motions lead to reduced cloudiness and more shortwave radiation at the surface, as well as reduced precipitation. The increased shortwave heating at the land surface, along with reduced soil moisture, leads to warmer surface temperature, more sensible heating, and warming of the lower troposphere. The composite provides a broad picture of the mechanisms governing the hydrologic response to El Niño forcing, but the regional and temporal responses can vary substantially for any given event. The 2015/16 El Niño, one of the strongest events, demonstrates some of the forced response noted in the composite, but with shifts in the evolution that depart from the composite, demonstrating the limitations of the composite and individuality of El Niño.

Variability and Trends of Precipitation in Quelimane, Central Mozambique, and Their Relation to El Niño Southern Oscillation

Understanding precipitation variability and trends is very important for sustainable water management. In this paper, we used 65 years (1951-2016) long- term precipitation data to evaluate the precipitation variability and trends in Quelimane, and their relation to El Ni&#241o Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The analysis includes annual, inter-annual inter-decadal variations, Mann-Kendall trend test, and drought frequency. The study also evaluated the relationship between Oceanic Ni&#241o Index (ONI) and precipitation patterns during ENSO positive, normal and negative phases. The results show two distinct seasons of precipitation in Quelimane, the wet season extending between December and April and the dry season extending from May to November. ENSO was found to influence the inter-annual variations of precipitation during the wet season, with warm ENSO (El Ni&#241o) and cold (La Ni&#241a) events tending to reduce and increase the precipitation amounts, respectively. Decreasing trends in inter-annual variations of precipitation and increase of drought frequency and severity are highlighted in this study. Both decreasing trend of inter-annual variations and increasing of drought frequency and severity have intensified after the 1970s climate shift. These intensifications seem to be associated with the strengthening of ENSO after the 1970s climate shift. The results of the present study may be useful for the design of the climate change adaptation plans in central Mozambique.

Exceptional Drought across Southeastern Australia Caused by Extreme Lack of Precipitation and Its Impacts on NDVI and SIF in 2018

Increased drought frequency in Australia is a pressing concern for scholars. In 2018, a severe drought in eastern Australia was recorded by the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT). To investigate the main causes and impacts of this drought across southeastern Australia, this work presents an overview of the drought mechanism and depicts its evolutionary process. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) from the Global Drought Monitor was used to identify the drought event and characterize its spatiotemporal distribution. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) were used to investigate the drought impacts on vegetation growth. In addition, the effects of drought response measures on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were analyzed. Our results showed that the exceptional drought occurred across southeastern Australia from April to December, and it was most severe in July, owing to an extreme lack of precipitation and increase in temperature. Moreover, we identified profound and long-lasting impacts of the drought on NDVI and SIF levels, especially for cropland. Furthermore, we also found that SIF was superior to NDVI in detecting drought impacts. This study advised on how to formulate timely and effective drought-response measures and supports sustainable socioeconomic development in Australia.

Economic and Ecological Impacts of Increased Drought Frequency in the Edwards Aquifer

This paper examines how increased drought frequency impacts water management in arid region, namely the Edwards Aquifer (EA) region of Texas. Specifically, we examine effects on the municipal, industrial, and agricultural water use; land allocation; endangered species supporting springflows and welfare. We find that increases in drought frequency causes agriculture to reduce irrigation moving land into grassland for livestock with a net income loss. This also increases water transfer from irrigation uses to municipal and industrial uses. Additionally, we find that regional springflows and well elevation will decline under more frequent drought condition, which implicates the importance of pumping limits and/or minimum springflow limits. Such developments have ecological implications and the springflows support endangered species and a switch from irrigated land use to grasslands would affect the regional ecological mix.

Assessing climate change and adaptive capacity at local scale using observed and remotely sensed data

Climate variability and change impacts are manifesting through declining rainfall totals and increasing frequency and intensity of droughts, floods and heatwaves. These environmental changes are affecting mostly rural populations in developing countries due to low adaptive capacity and high reliance on natural systems for their livelihoods. While broad adaptation strategies exist, there is need to contextualise them to local scale. This paper assessed rainfall, temperature and water stress trends over time in Capricorn District, South Africa, using Standardized Precipitation Index, Thermal Heat Index, and Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a proxy of water stress. Observed rainfall and temperature data from 1960 to 2015 was used to assess climatic variations, and NDVI was used to assess water stress from 2000 to 2019. Results show a marked increase in drought frequency and intensity, decreasing rainfall totals accompanied by increasing temperatures, and increasing water stress during the summer season. Long-term climatic changes are a basis to develop tailor-made adaptation strategies. Eighty-one percent of the cropped area in Capricorn District is rainfed and under smallholder farming, exposing the district to climate change risks. As the intensity of climate change varies both in space and time, adaptation strategies also vary depending on exposure and intensity. A combination of observed and remotely sensed climatic data is vital in developing tailor-made adaptation strategies.

Frequency change of future extreme summer meteorological and hydrological droughts over North America

This paper describes projected frequency changes in extreme summer meteorological and hydrological droughts over North American catchments. It uses two large ensemble climate models (50-member CanESM2 and 40-member CESM1) under the RCP 8.5 scenario to robustly assess frequency changes up to the 100-year drought, relative to the 1980–2009 reference period. Meteorological droughts, linked solely to precipitation deficit, are represented by the 1-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), whereas hydrological droughts are characterized by the 1-month Streamflow Drought Index (SDI), based on hydrological simulation using a lumped hydrological model. Results show widely different patterns for future changes in extreme meteorological versus hydrological droughts. Future meteorological droughts show patterns of increasing and decreasing frequency that roughly match future expected changes of mean summer precipitation, although some regions are nonetheless projected to see more frequent extreme meteorological droughts despite increases in mean summer precipitation. The frequency changes for the 100-year meteorological droughts can be quite severe, with up to a 20-fold increase observed over some watersheds. On the other hand, hydrological droughts, which combine the effect of precipitation and temperature changes, show a mostly uniform pattern of large to very large increases in drought frequency. This shows that the projected temperature increase is a main driver of future extreme hydrological droughts, enough to overcome the projected increase in mean summer precipitation for many North American catchments. Projected changes in both meteorological and hydrological droughts get consistently worse for the longer considered return periods. In other words, frequency changes for the 100-year droughts are more significant than those expected for the 2- and 20-year droughts. This gradual worsening toward larger extremes has potentially large societal and economic impacts. The large projected increases in the frequency of extreme hydrological drought frequency (up to 27 times) are likely to severely stress water management systems across North America.

Recent increases in drought frequency cause observed multi-year drought legacies in the tree rings of semi-arid forests.

Recent analyses on the length of drought recovery in forests have shown multi-year legacies, particularly in semi-arid, coniferous ecosystems. Such legacies are usually attributed to ecophysiological memory, although drought frequency itself, and its effect on overlapping recovery times, could also contribute. Here, we describe a multi-decadal study of drought legacies using tree-ring carbon-isotope ratios (δ13C) and ring-width index (RWI) in Pinus ponderosa at 13 montane sites traversing a winter-summer precipitation gradient in the Southwestern U.S. Sites and trees were selected to avoid collection biases that exist in archived tree-ring databanks. The spatial hydroclimate gradient and winter-summer seasonal patterns were well predicted by seasonal and inter-annual correlations between δ13C and atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Using VPD, we found that the probability of extreme drought has increased up to 70% in this region during the past two decades. When the recent increase in drought frequency was not considered, multi-year legacies in both δ13C and RWI were observed at most sites. When the increase in drought frequency was detrended from tree-ring chronologies, some sites exhibited short legacies (1-2years) in both δ13C and RWI, and there was a sight trend for longer legacies in RWI. However, when considered broadly across the region and multiple decades, no significant legacies were observed, which contrasts with past studies. Our results reveal that a contribution to observed multi-year legacies is related to shifts in the climate system itself, an exogenous factor, that must be considered along with physiological memory.

Global characterization of hydrological and meteorological droughts under future climate change: The importance of timescales, vegetation‐CO2feedbacks and changes to distribution functions

AbstractThere is a strong scientific debate on how drought will evolve under future climate change. Climate model outputs project an increase in drought frequency and severity by the end of the 21st century. However, there is a large uncertainty related to the extent of the global land area that will be impacted by enhanced climatological and hydrological droughts. Although climate metrics suggest a likely strong increase in future drought severity, hydrologic metrics do not show a similar signal. In the literature, numerous attempts have been made to explain these differences using several physical mechanisms. This study provides evidence that characterization of drought from different statistical perspectives can lead to unreliable detection of climatological/hydrological droughts in model projections and accordingly give a “false alarm” of the impacts of future climate change. In particular, this study analyses future projections based on different drought metrics and stresses that detecting trends in drought behavior in future projections must consider the extreme character of drought events by comparing the percentage change in drought magnitude relative to a reference climatological period and rely on the frequency of events in the tail of the distribution. In addition, the autoregressive character of drought indices makes necessary the use of the same temporal scale when comparing different drought metrics in order to maintain comparability. Taking into consideration all these factors, our study demonstrates that climatological and hydrological drought trends are likely to undergo similar temporal evolution during the 21st century, with almost 30% of the global land areas experiencing water deficit under future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. As such, a proper characterization of drought using comparable metrics can introduce lower differences and more consistent outputs for future climatic and hydrologic droughts.

Прогноз адаптивных приспособлений в лесном хозяйстве в связи с возможными климатическими изменениями

The increased human impact on the environment in the 20th and the beginning of the 21st centuries has resulted in global warming, aridization, desertification and reduced ability of ecosystems to adapt to changes and recover from disturbances. As a result, the world natural virgin forests have receded drastically and been replaced by lower quality second-growth forests over large areas. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations the warming will continue even further, which will lead to increased drought frequency in the next 30–40 years; as a result by the end of the century the world economy can lose up to 20 % of the global gross product. The paleontological data indicate that the climate on our planet has never been stable: periods of warming havealways been followed by periods of cooling and vice versa. Modern warming, in contrast to previous historical periods, is anthropogenic and in the European part of Russia occurs mainly in the cold season. Therefore, the amplitude of oscillation in the average annual temperature decreases, which significantly reduces the climate continentality. However, the increased mean annual air temperature in the Central Chernozem and Volga regions reflects the climate instability rather than the improved growth conditions. Thus, droughts are becoming increasingly frequent as well as abnormally warm and abnormally cold winters. Consequently, plants are suffering from increased influence of multiple stress factors. The results of the special studies enable us to conclude that the climate may significantly changein the foreseeable future. The need for preventive measures in order to minimize the effects of climate changes is indisputable, as only well-conceived actions can help such weatherdependent industries as forestry and agriculture to adapt to changing climatic conditions. It is obvious, that if we fail to take swift actions in this regard, climate changes in the foreststeppe and steppe zones of European Russia will inevitably have serious consequences for the state of forest ecosystems. These consequences might include changes in the species composition and biodiversity level of the forest ecosystems, increased risks of forest fires and mass spread of pests and forest diseases, increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and deterioration of economic conditions for forest management. Our studiesof trends and patterns in climate were carried out by observation of the air temperature regime and the amount of precipitation in the region over a long period of time. We relied on the available literature of Russian and international climate research organizations. The assessment of possible climate change was carried out using the IPCC methodology. We also took into account future greenhouse gas emissions and their concentration in the atmosphere. The study concluded that in the forest-steppe and steppe zones of the European part of Russia any scenario, even the mildest one, would lead to significant changes in climatic parameters by the end of the 21st century, which would inevitably affect the state of forest ecosystems. Forest fires, pests and forest diseases will become the key stress factors, which will have a paramount impact on managed forests. Currently, forest ecosystems have a fairly high adaptive capacity. However, in order to reduce the potential negative impact ofunfavourable factors we need to implement a variety of prevention and adaptation measures with different time frames for the implementation. Appropriate preventive actions timely made can reduce the possible negative effects of climate changes and help to keep the ecosystems balanced. It is important to note that sheer situational and tactical measures cannot increase the adaptive capacity of forest ecosystems and will, therefore, inevitably lead to significant economic losses.For citation: Semenov M.A., Vysotskiy A.A., Pashchenko V.I. Adaptation Scenarios in Forest Management Due to the Possible Climate Changes. Lesnoy Zhurnal [Forestry Journal], 2019, no. 5, pp. 57–69. DOI: 10.17238/issn0536-1036.2019.5.57

Severe drought limits trees in a semi-arid savanna.

Increasingly frequent and severe droughts under climate change are expected to have major impacts on vegetation worldwide. However, research to date has focused on tree vulnerability to drought in forests. Less is known about trees and drought in savannas, where a sparse tree layer coexists with grass. These tree-grass interactions (often mediated by fire and herbivory) shape savanna tree ecology, and confound predictions of how strongly drought might affect trees. On the one hand, drought is physiologically stressful, which could harm trees and be exacerbated by herbivore impacts; on the other hand, trees adapted to semiarid savannas might be relatively drought tolerant, and the considerable impacts of drought on grass could even benefit trees via reduced grass competition and fire risk, especially in the year following a drought. Here, we sought to understand the net effects of severe drought on the savanna tree layer, and how fire and herbivory mediate these effects. We monitored tree growth, mortality, and community structure for 2 yr within existing long-term fire and herbivory experiments across a drought-severity contrast, following a major drought in Kruger National Park, South Africa. Overall, severe drought was a major stressor for trees. Tree mortality rates in most species increased by an order of magnitude in the year following drought, and slower growth rates for some persisted for 2 yr. At the community level, this translated into substantial decreases in tree densities. Herbivory and fire did little either to mitigate or exacerbate drought effects on trees, and overall, drought swamped effects of herbivory and fire that have otherwise been observed. However, species differed in their responses to drought, with some dominant encroaching species especially vulnerable. We suggest that increasing drought frequency and severity could drastically alter savanna vegetation by repeatedly killing off trees.

Multi-decadal hydrologic change and variability in the Amazon River basin: understanding terrestrial water storage variations and drought characteristics

Abstract. We investigate the interannual and interdecadal hydrological changes in the Amazon River basin and its sub-basins during the 1980–2015 period using GRACE satellite data and a physically based, 2 km grid continental-scale hydrological model (LEAF-Hydro-Flood) that includes a prognostic groundwater scheme and accounts for the effects of land use–land cover (LULC) change. The analyses focus on the dominant mechanisms that modulate terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations and droughts. We find that (1) the model simulates the basin-averaged TWS variations remarkably well; however, disagreements are observed in spatial patterns of temporal trends, especially for the post-2008 period. (2) The 2010s is the driest period since 1980, characterized by a major shift in the decadal mean compared to the 2000s caused by increased drought frequency. (3) Long-term trends in TWS suggest that the Amazon overall is getting wetter (1.13 mm yr−1), but its southern and southeastern sub-basins are undergoing significant negative TWS changes, caused primarily by intensified LULC changes. (4) Increasing divergence between dry-season total water deficit and TWS release suggests a strengthening dry season, especially in the southern and southeastern sub-basins. (5) The sub-surface storage regulates the propagation of meteorological droughts into hydrological droughts by strongly modulating TWS release with respect to its storage preceding the drought condition. Our simulations provide crucial insight into the importance of sub-surface storage in alleviating surface water deficit across Amazon and open pathways for improving prediction and mitigation of extreme droughts under changing climate and increasing hydrologic alterations due to human activities (e.g., LULC change).

Isotope values of California vole (Microtus californicus) hair relate to historical drought and land use patterns in California, USA.

Increased drought frequency and intensity and agricultural intensification have been key stressors to ecological systems over the past century. Biological proxies (e.g., pollen, tree rings) have been used to track this environmental change; however, linking these changes to the ecology of organisms remains challenging. Here, we link historical drought records to conditions of high water-stress in grassland habitats through the stable isotope analysis of California vole museum specimens (Microtus californicus). Using museum collections spanning 118-years (1891-2009), isotope values of dated hair tissues were associated with statewide drought metrics on the Palmer Drought Severity Index. We observed a positive correlation between δ15N and δ18O values and drought severity. The range in δ15N values (~ 18‰) is greater than what would be expected as a result of dietary shifts across the landscape (~ 3‰), and is likely attributed to the combined effects of physiological responses of M. californicus and isotopic shifts in plant resources with increased water-stress. Geospatial patterns in δ34S values of hair tissues reflect higher baseline isotope values in coastal habitats. However, comparably high δ34S values in the southern-most inland localities suggest sulfur fertilization of croplands and subsequent transfer to surrounding grassland habitats in 34S enriched forms. A broad δ13C range (- 28.7 to - 14.3‰) further suggests the consumption of C3 and C4 plant-based dietary proteins. As shown here, stable isotope analysis of museum collections can provide a climate and land use record based on the physiological performance and ecology of a study species in a region affected intensely by anthropogenic activities.

Legacies of more frequent drought in ponderosa pine across the western United States.

Despite widespread interest in drought legacies-multiyear impacts of drought on tree growth-the key implication of reported drought legacies remains unaddressed: as impaired growth and slow recovery associated with drought legacies are pervasive across forest ecosystems, what is the impact of more frequent drought conditions? We investigated the assumption that either multiple drought years occurring during a short period (multiyear droughts), or droughts occurring during the recovery period from previous drought (compounded droughts), are detrimental to subsequent growth. There is evidence that drought responses may vary among populations of widespread species, leading us to examine regional differences in responses of the conifer Pinus ponderosa to historic drought frequency in the western United States. More frequent drought conditions incurred additional growth declines and shifts in growth-climate sensitivities in the years following drought relative to single-drought events, with 'triple-droughts' being worse than 'double-droughts'. Notably, prediction skill was not strongly reduced when ignoring compounded droughts, a consequence of the temporally comprehensive formulation of our stochastic antecedent model that accounts for the climatic memory of tree growth. We argue that incorporating drought-induced temporal variability in tree growth sensitivities can aid inference gained from statistical models, where more simplistic models could overestimate the severity of drought legacies. We also found regional differences in response to repeated drought, and suggest plastic post-drought sensitivities and climatic memory may represent beneficial physiological adjustments in interior regions. Within-species variability may thus mediate forest responses to increasing drought frequency under future climate change, but experimental approaches using more species are necessary to improve our understanding of the mechanisms that underlie drought legacy effects on tree growth.

Perspective: Developing Flow Policies to Balance the Water Needs of Humans and Wetlands Requires a Landscape Scale Approach Inclusive of Future Scenarios and Multiple Timescales

Maintenance of the natural flow regime is essential for continued wetland integrity; however, the flow regime is greatly influenced by both natural and anthropogenic forces. Wetlands may be particularly susceptible to altered flow regimes as they are directly impacted by water flows at a variety of time scales. In Puerto Rico, contemporary water management is decreasing freshwater recharge to wetlands and contributes to the salinization of important coastal wetlands as sea levels rise. Further, downscaled climate models predict an increase in drought frequency, intensity, and duration by mid-century. Conflicts over water allocation seem imminent between human and ecological needs. Current minimum flow policies are insufficient given the complexities of ecosystem processes and the changes in precipitation patterns and sea level rise that are expected in the future. Improved flow policies need to be established that reflect the functional relationships between specific representative ecological resources and components of the natural flow regime across all relevant time scales. Similarly, flow policies need to be developed within a landscape scale to implicitly address the socio-ecological trade-offs as well as the complexities of water management. Multi-disciplinary collaborations will be essential for increasing our resiliency to anticipated future changes.

Drought-response strategies of savanna herbivores.

Climate models predict increases in drought frequency and severity worldwide, with potential impacts on diverse systems, including African savannas. These droughts pose a concern for the conservation of savanna mammal communities, such that understanding how different species respond to drought is vital.Because grass decreases so consistently during droughts, we predict that grass‐dependent species (grazers and mixed feeders) will respond strongly to drought, whether by changing diets, seeking drought refugia, or suffering mortality.A recent severe but heterogeneous drought in Kruger National Park, South Africa, afforded a rare opportunity to test these hypotheses in situ—crucial, given the central role of landscape‐scale movement as a potential herbivore strategy. We used herbivore dung as a proxy, integrating spatial distributions (dung counts) with diet composition (carbon isotope analysis of dung).As predicted, browsers showed little response to drought. However, mixed feeders switched their diets to incorporate more C3 trees/forbs, but did not move. Meanwhile, grazers and megaherbivores instead moved toward drought refugia. Synthesis and applications: The responses we observed by savanna herbivores are largely amplifications of typical dry season strategies and reflect constraints imposed by body size and feeding ecology. Grazers may be at particular risk from increased drought frequency and spatial extent if drought refugia become decreasingly available. Conservation strategies should recognize these constraints and work to facilitate the diverse responses of herbivores to drought.