Abstract
Understanding precipitation variability and trends is very important for sustainable water management. In this paper, we used 65 years (1951-2016) long- term precipitation data to evaluate the precipitation variability and trends in Quelimane, and their relation to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The analysis includes annual, inter-annual inter-decadal variations, Mann-Kendall trend test, and drought frequency. The study also evaluated the relationship between Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and precipitation patterns during ENSO positive, normal and negative phases. The results show two distinct seasons of precipitation in Quelimane, the wet season extending between December and April and the dry season extending from May to November. ENSO was found to influence the inter-annual variations of precipitation during the wet season, with warm ENSO (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) events tending to reduce and increase the precipitation amounts, respectively. Decreasing trends in inter-annual variations of precipitation and increase of drought frequency and severity are highlighted in this study. Both decreasing trend of inter-annual variations and increasing of drought frequency and severity have intensified after the 1970s climate shift. These intensifications seem to be associated with the strengthening of ENSO after the 1970s climate shift. The results of the present study may be useful for the design of the climate change adaptation plans in central Mozambique.
Highlights
Water is a key resource for the economic development and food production, considering the fact that both agriculture and industry sectors are heavily dependent on water availability
The results show two distinct seasons of precipitation in Quelimane, the wet season extending between December and April and the dry season extending from May to November
Climatology of annual variation of precipitation in Quelimane (Figure 3) showed that there were two distinct seasons of precipitation, the wet season extending from December to April and the dry season extending between May and November
Summary
Water is a key resource for the economic development and food production, considering the fact that both agriculture and industry sectors are heavily dependent on water availability. The surface temperature has increased by almost 1 ̊C on average, this value might have been higher in some regions and lower in others. In parallel to temperature increasing, there has been significant reduction in water levels of rivers and lakes, and in precipitation quantity and periodicity due to natural and anthropogenic factors including El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and changes in the atmospheric circulation (Alley et al, 2007). Long-term observations of precipitation have shown pronounced trends in the last hundred years, where some places became wetter while others such as Sahel, Mediterranean, and Southern Africa are drying gradually. Long-term observations highlight strong inter-annual variations with long periods of droughts interspersed by a year of heavy rain, in response to ENSO (Alley et al, 2007). Studies conducted in different geographical locations have shown that the effects of ENSO in precipitation can vary from place to place; the analysis of ENSO-precipitation relation on local scale is important
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
