Increase In Average Rainfall Research Articles

Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation: The Case of Western Province, Sri Lanka


 
 
 Sri Lanka, as an island and developing nation, is highly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Occurrences of natural disasters due to extreme weather conditions such as prolonged droughts, flash floods and landslides deprive lives and livelihoods of people. Building resilience of vulnerable communities and ecosystems over climate change effects within a broader framework of sustainable development remains the country‘s priority. The Western Province is one of the nine provinces of Sri Lanka. It is the most densely populated Province in the country and is home to the legislative capital Sri Jayewardenepura Kotte as well as to Colombo, the nation's administrative and business center. The Province is located in the southwest of the country and has an area of 3,684 square kilometres and 5,821,710 people. It comprises of three administrative districts; Colombo, Gampaha and Kalutara. The Western Province provides the highest contribution to the Gross Domestic Product contributing 41.2% of the Provincial Gross Domestic Product (PGDP), the highest being the service sector (56.5%) followed by Industrial sector (34.6%) and then agriculture (1.7%). With regards to the climate change impacts, the most significant ones for the Province are recurrent flooding as a result of an increase in average rainfall coupled with heavier rainfall events, increase of the minimum temperature and thus the decrease in the difference between maximum and minimum temperatures and also sea level rise as certain parts of the Province borders the coast. The key vulnerable sectors of the Province are food security which comprise of agriculture (including both crops and livestock) and inland fisheries; water resources which includes both drinking water and irrigation, coastal and marine, ecosystem and biodiversity, human settlement and infrastructure, tourism and health. In addition to these sectors there are cross cutting sectors which includes policy, legal, economic and governance, Institutional development and coordination, International cooperation and partnerships and research and development which have a significant stake to the magnitude of impact. Among the adaptation interventions the following are being implemented/proposed for implementation; Climate Smart agriculture/practice and other alternative agricultural systems, increase storage capacity of water, rational management of water distribution and use, collection of data on the endangered/to be extinct/vulnerable fauna and flora due to climate change and protect them, conduct research including citizen research to identify the changes in biodiversity due to climate change, integration of climate change impacts into new and already prepared development plans and construction of salinity barriers. Most of these interventions had been included in the implementation plans of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) by relevant agencies which is in accordance with the Paris Agreement (2015) and submitted to the and the submission of the revised NDC to the UNFCCC with the approval of the Cabinet of Ministers in the country. However, the full implementation of same requires to improve the capacity in institutions including human resources, finances and technological interventions which needs urgent attention.
 Keywords: Climate change, Adaptation, Western Province, Impact, Vulnerability
 
 

Identification of cross-equatorial northerly surge (CENS) relationship to very heavy rain events in Jakarta

CENS is a meteorological phenomenon in the form of surface wind flow originating from the South China Sea (SCS), very strongly across the equator. CENS is closely related to the increase in average rainfall in parts of Indonesia. There has been very heavy rainfall on January 18, 2022 in the Jakarta area which resulted in flooding. Therefore, this study focuses on seeing if there is a CENS relationship that is factor in increasing rainfall in the Jakarta area on January 18, 2022. The results showed that the NCS began to form on January 16-17, 2022 with a Siberian High of 1040.6 hPa and the propagation of cold air masses from Asia to the south which was an indicator of CENS. The next day, the CENS phenomenon began to occur, characterized by meridional wind speeds in the 105˚- 115˚BT region of less than -5 m/s. This phenomenon triggers the strengthening of the northeast Asian monsoon flow so that the area south of the equator, including Jakarta, gets a large moisture transport from the SCS. This causes the potential for the formation of high convective clouds to trigger very heavy rain and cause flooding in the Jakarta area on January 18, 2022.

Assessment of Climate Variability on Poultry Production in Nigeria: 1990-2020

This study examined the influence of climate variability on poultry production in Nigeria from 1990-2020. State the broad objective only. This study adopted the quasi-experimental research design. Secondary data were used in the study. The method employed for analyzing the time series data was the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Pre-estimation diagnostics tests were employed to check for stationarity of the data. From the results of the Error Correction Models (ECM’s), average rainfall and Carbon dioxide emission have significant influence on poultry (egg and meat) production in Nigeria. A unit increase in average rainfall brought about -0.4% reduction in egg production, while a unit increase in carbon dioxide emission brought about a -0.27% reduction in egg production. Average rainfall had positive influence on broiler production a unit increase in rainfall increased broiler production by 0.41% and 0.52% at the current and two period lag, while carbon dioxide emission reduced broiler production by -0.16%. The study concluded that climate change do affect poultry production both negatively and positively and recommended that climate smart agricultural practices such as proper ventilation and vaccination should be applied in poultry production to mitigate the negative effects of climate change

The Effect of Atmospheric Parameters and Climate Changes on the NDYI Index in the Hyrcanian Forests

The increase in the production and entry of greenhouse gases into the earth’s atmosphere has disturbed the balance of the environment. The signs of climate change (caused by global warming) are clearly visible and its effects are tangible. According to the United Nations, if the current trend continues, the global average temperature will increase by 3.2°C by the end of the century, which will have terrible consequences if it happens. This research aimed to investigate the effects of greenhouse gases and climate changes resulting from them on Hyrcanian forests. The Hyrcanian forests, as one of the oldest forest areas (remaining from the Paleogene era), were studied by telemetry from 2013 to 2021. The analysis of the images taken from the Landsat 8 satellite showed that during 9 years, the NDVI index decreased by 0.6 units and the average air temperature increased by 0.5°C. Although the average relative humidity has only increased by 2%, the average annual rainfall has recorded an increase of 25mm. The analysis of the statistics showed that the rains occur irregularly and are often torrential. Therefore, it is predicted that as the average temperature continues to increase, the NDVI index will further decrease, and as a result, the forest cover will become weaker and the soil will lose more water absorption power, and due to the increase in average rainfall. Successive floods will occur. Therefore, soil erosion increases and the extinction and migration of plant and animal species increase significantly.

Mathematical Modeling for Estimating the Risk of Rice Farmers’ Losses Due to Weather Changes

This paper discusses the relationship between weather and rice productivity modeled using the Cobb–Douglas production function principle, with the hypothesis that rice production will increase in line with the increase in average rainfall, wind speed, and temperature every month and then decrease if the weather conditions exceed the threshold. As a result, farmers have the risk of losing rice production. To overcome this problem, we try to estimate the value of the risk. The purpose of this study is to estimate the risk of losses that occurred in rice plants due to weather changes. The method used in this study is risk estimation with the Tail Value at Risk (TVaR) approach. In addition to TVaR, it is estimated simultaneously with Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). This study uses weather data consisting of rainfall data, wind speed, and air temperature collected from geophysical and meteorological data. Meanwhile, yield data were obtained and processed from the Central Statistics Agency and the West Java Agricultural Service. The data used are data from 2008 to 2021. There are two main parts of the results in this study, namely mathematical analysis and data analysis. The mathematical analysis is a risk model derivation process, which includes TVaR risk measurement. The data analysis process is a simulation of the estimated risk of rice production loss. The results obtained from this study are the value of opportunity risk of loss based on the VaR, CVaR, and TVaR approaches. The conclusion of this study is that the rice plants have a risk of loss in the form of reduced yields caused by weather changes. Farmers can plan to overcome this loss problem, by setting up a reserve fund. Risk of loss can be managed through the rice agricultural insurance program. This is in line with the Indonesian government’s program through the ministry of agriculture. Thus, farmers, insurance companies, and the government can manage the risk of losing rice yields.

Effects of Climate Variability and Climate Change on Sorghum Productivity in the Cercle of Koutiala in Mali

The main objective of this study is to analyze the impact of climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) on sorghum productivity in the Cercle of Koutiala in Mali. To do this, the model of the production function was used to estimate the variation of sorghum yield during a period of 30 years (1986-2015). After the test of the unit root of Dickey-Fuller Augmented (ADF), the estimation of the semi-logarithmic model by the Ordinary Least Square method (OLS) showed that the yield of sorghum was affected by the climatic variables. The increase in average rainfall over the period June-September positively affects the performance to a certain threshold. On the other hand, the average temperatures during June-July have no significant effects on the yield. The temperatures observed during August and September, negatively affect the performance of sorghum during the study period to a certain threshold. The precipitations of August and September have a positive impact but not significant on the yield. The interaction between mean precipitation and average temperature during the same period negatively influences the yield of the sorghum. Indeed, the increase of the precipitation combined with an increase of the temperature for the period June to September causes a reduction in the yield of sorghum. Depending on this situation, it is important and necessary to take measures to mitigate the negative impacts of climate on sorghum yield in the Cercle of Koutiala.

The Vulnerability of Nairobi to the Effects of Climate Change Between 1984 and 2016

Urban areas are exposed to compounded effects of climate change emanating from the confluence of a globally changing climate and the unique characteristics of urban climate. The unique urban climate is brought about by land cover patterns and the interaction between urban surfaces and weather elements. Among the recorded effects of this include the Urban Heat Island, increased surface runoff and altered wind flow patterns. Nairobi city has continued to experience these effects and it is projected that they may worsen under the changing climate. This study sought to establish the physical characteristics that make Nairobi City vulnerable to the climate change effects of flooding, to recommend adaptation measures. Nairobi City County watershed was the research situs. A descriptive research design was used to model runoff over two distinct periods of 1984 and 2016 using the Curve Number Method. The results pointed to a 162% increase in urban sprawl and a 45% increase in average rainfall for the corresponding period. The surface sealing from urban sprawl and the increasing surface runoff expose the city to a higher flooding risk. At the same time, the ecological services of green systems within urban areas are diminishing due to fragmentation of the green networks. It is recommended that urban development adopt a paradigm shift towards the use of green infrastructures like greenways, small urban green spaces and green roofs alongside water sensitive urban design approaches to adapt urban areas to the effects of climate change.

The role of land use change on the sustainability of groundwater resources in the eastern plains of Kurdistan, Iran.

In this study, land use change and its effects on level and volume of groundwater were investigated. Using satellite images and field measurements, change in land uses was determined from 1998 to 2007. By analyzing the observation wells data and preparing the zoning maps in GIS, groundwater level fluctuations were assessed. Considering the area corresponding to these fluctuations, changes in aquifers volume were calculated. The rain gauge and synoptic stations data were used to calculate meteorological parameters and evapotranspiration. The water requirement of the main crops was determined by CROPWAT software. Results showed an increase in average rainfall and crops water requirement. The classification of satellite images showed that 11,800ha was increased in lands under irrigated crops cultivation, while 27,655ha of rangeland was declined in the region. Groundwater levels dropped an average of 7m, equal to 63.4 MCM reductions in volume of water in the aquifer.

Socioecological Changes and Dengue Fever Transmission in Queensland, Australia: A Spatial Bayesian Approach

O-31A5-1 Background/Aims: This study examined the impact of socioecologic factors on the transmission of dengue fever (DF) and assessed the difference in the potential predictors of DF between locally and overseas-acquired cases, Queensland, Australia. Methods: We obtained data from the Queensland Health on numbers of notified DF cases by local government area (LGA) in Queensland for the period 1 January 2002–31 December 2005. The data on weather and socioeconomic index for areas (SEIFA) and overseas visitors were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to quantify the relationship between variation of DF and socioecologic factors and to determine spatial patterns of DF. Results: Our results show that the average increase of locally acquired DF was 6% (95% credible interval [CI]: 2%–11%) and 61% (95% CI: 2%–241%) for a 1-mm increase in average monthly rainfall and a 1°C increase in average monthly maximum temperature between 2002 and 2005, respectively. The average increase of overseas-acquired DF cases was 1% (95% CI: 0%–3%) and 1% (95% CI: 0%–2%) for a 1-mm increase in average rainfall and a 1 unit increase in SEIFA. No significant association between numbers of overseas travellers, SEIFA, and DF was found for locally acquired DF cases. For overseas-acquired cases, DF had no significant associations with temperature and numbers of overseas travellers. Conclusion: The results of this study indicated that socioecological factors may have played a significant role in the transmission of DF. Socioecological drivers of locally and overseas-acquired DF appear to differ in Queensland, Australia.

Transformation of a subtropical river into a hyperhaline estuary: the Casamance River (Senegal)—paleogeographical implications

Located in the South of Senegal, in the transitional Guineo-Congolian/Soudanian zone, the Casamance system is composed of a small river, supplied by a narrow drainage basin and followed by a 250 km long estuary. The continuous rainfall decrease experienced by the region since the beginning of the century drastically affected the Casamance river. This climatic change suddenly accelerated during 1968–1970, which led to a four-stage succession: • - before 1968–1970 (stage 1, rainfall ⩾ 1300 mm), the Casamance estuary showed the customary negative upstream salinity gradient; • - between 1968–1970 and 1978 (stage 2, rainfall ⩽ 1000 mm), under decreasing rainfall, the Casamance estuary shifted to a hyperline “inverse estuary”. It showed well-defined physical, chemical and biological zonations. Fresh groundwater resources, supplying the upper reaches of the river during the dry season, were progressively depleted. • - between 1978 and 1986–1987 (stage 3), the salinity peak of the end of the dry season progressively rose and shifted upward. The ecological zonation showed the increasing marine influence until 1986; • - between 1986–1987 and 1990 (stage 4), the dry season fresh water input had weakened with the depletion of groundwater resources. A slight increase in rainfall was insufficient to repulse the hyperhaline waters and the restricted area extended upstream and downstream. The physical, chemical and biological zonations strongly widened and flattened. In the future, the return to stage 1 conditions, by an increase in average rainfall, would take decades. Inevitably it will be much longer than the transformation into a hyperhaline estuary. Thus a slight decrease of the average rainfall in the region provoked a drastic change of the hydrological and biological patterns of the ria. The result seems to be a major crisis in the region, and might be recorded in the fossil records. We discuss these observations in terms of possible misreadings of paleoenvironments, and in relation with long-term climate trends.