Effects of Climate Variability and Climate Change on Sorghum Productivity in the Cercle of Koutiala in Mali

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to analyze the impact of climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) on sorghum productivity in the Cercle of Koutiala in Mali. To do this, the model of the production function was used to estimate the variation of sorghum yield during a period of 30 years (1986-2015). After the test of the unit root of Dickey-Fuller Augmented (ADF), the estimation of the semi-logarithmic model by the Ordinary Least Square method (OLS) showed that the yield of sorghum was affected by the climatic variables. The increase in average rainfall over the period June-September positively affects the performance to a certain threshold. On the other hand, the average temperatures during June-July have no significant effects on the yield. The temperatures observed during August and September, negatively affect the performance of sorghum during the study period to a certain threshold. The precipitations of August and September have a positive impact but not significant on the yield. The interaction between mean precipitation and average temperature during the same period negatively influences the yield of the sorghum. Indeed, the increase of the precipitation combined with an increase of the temperature for the period June to September causes a reduction in the yield of sorghum. Depending on this situation, it is important and necessary to take measures to mitigate the negative impacts of climate on sorghum yield in the Cercle of Koutiala.