The Vulnerability of Nairobi to the Effects of Climate Change Between 1984 and 2016

Sunday Julius Abuje,Gerryshom Munala,Bernard Moirongo Otoki,Bernard Mugwima Njuguna

doi:10.11648/j.larp.20200502.14

Sunday Julius Abuje, Gerryshom Munala + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.11648/j.larp.20200502.14

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Abstract

Urban areas are exposed to compounded effects of climate change emanating from the confluence of a globally changing climate and the unique characteristics of urban climate. The unique urban climate is brought about by land cover patterns and the interaction between urban surfaces and weather elements. Among the recorded effects of this include the Urban Heat Island, increased surface runoff and altered wind flow patterns. Nairobi city has continued to experience these effects and it is projected that they may worsen under the changing climate. This study sought to establish the physical characteristics that make Nairobi City vulnerable to the climate change effects of flooding, to recommend adaptation measures. Nairobi City County watershed was the research situs. A descriptive research design was used to model runoff over two distinct periods of 1984 and 2016 using the Curve Number Method. The results pointed to a 162% increase in urban sprawl and a 45% increase in average rainfall for the corresponding period. The surface sealing from urban sprawl and the increasing surface runoff expose the city to a higher flooding risk. At the same time, the ecological services of green systems within urban areas are diminishing due to fragmentation of the green networks. It is recommended that urban development adopt a paradigm shift towards the use of green infrastructures like greenways, small urban green spaces and green roofs alongside water sensitive urban design approaches to adapt urban areas to the effects of climate change.

Highlights

There is compelling evidence that the global climate is changing faster than earlier predicted [6]
Urban areas are rapidly growing, with over 60% of the world population projected to live in urban areas by the year 2030 [27]
Urban areas are exposed to the compounded effects of climate change resulting from a combination of a globally changing climate, rapid urban growth, and the unique characteristics of urban climates

Summary

Introduction

There is compelling evidence that the global climate is changing faster than earlier predicted [6]. The climate in urban areas manifests as, extreme rainfall, extreme winds, and extreme temperatures. Recorded effects of this include the Urban Heat Island (UHI), increased surface runoff and altered wind flow patterns. These make urban areas vulnerable to flooding and thermal stress. Climate change has led to an upward trend in the intensity and frequency of climate-related disasters since the 1950s. This increases the vulnerability of urban areas; [13, 14, 22] and [24]

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