Increase In Annual Temperature Research Articles

In-depth Exploration of Temperature Trends in Morocco: Combining Traditional Methods of Mann Kendall with Innovative ITA and IPTA Approaches

AbstractThis study examines trends in minimum and maximum temperatures at various climate stations located in different regions of Morocco for a period of five decades (1970 to 2019). Mann–Kendall, Sen’s estimator, Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) and Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) were used in the analysis. The results show significant fluctuations, at different time scales, between minimum and maximum temperatures at all stations. In coastal areas, such as Rabat Sale, minimum temperatures fell during January and February while other months saw increases. Average minimum temperatures in Rabat Sale tend to fall by 0.5 °C. On the other hand, maximum temperatures in Rabat Sale rose by 0.2 °C. A decrease of 0.4 °C for Tmin and 1.6 °C for Tmax were observed in higher continental regions, such as Meknes. Other stations, such as Fez Sais (0.6 °C Tmin and 2.6 °C Tmax) and Taza (1.1 °C Tmin and 2.6 °C Tmax) showed an upward trend. Trends also vary, with notable increases in minimum and maximum temperatures, indicating different climatic dynamics according to altitude and locality. In particular, the ITA highlights a significant increase in annual maximum temperatures, with a P-value < 0.05 and trend slopes ranging from 0.0015 °C per year in Rabat Sale to 0.0076 °C per year in Taza. In addition, the IPTA results confirm diversity of upward and downward trends on monthly and seasonal scales, highlighting impact of geographical factors such as proximity to sea, topography, and continentality that contribute to formation of regional microclimates. The results highlight significant impact of climate change in Morocco.

Влияние климатических изменений на развитие сельского хозяйства агроэкологических зон Республики Нигер

Climate change poses a significant threat to the ecosystems and biodiversity of the Niger Republic, especially given the critical role of vegetation cover in maintaining the resilience of local ecosystems. This study analyzed the impact of climate change on vegetation in Niger using geoinformation systems and remote sensing technologies. The main research method was the analysis of satellite data from MODIS, Landsat and Sentinel, as well as the use of climate data from the NASA POWER Data Access Viewer portal. The results showed a significant increase in average annual temperatures and a decrease in precipitation in various climatic zones of the country, which negatively affects the state of vegetation and agriculture. NDVI analysis revealed degradation of vegetation cover in the northern and eastern regions of the country, indicating the need to develop adaptation strategies and sustainable management of natural resources. Keywords: REPUBLIC OF THE NIGER, GEOINFORMATION ANALYSIS, REMOTE SENSING OF THE EARTH, GEOINFORMATION SYSTEMS, VEGETATION COVER, AGRICULTURE, ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATION

Влияние климатических изменений на развитие сельского хозяйства агроэкологических зон Республики Нигер

Climate change poses a significant threat to the ecosystems and biodiversity of the Niger Republic, especially given the critical role of vegetation cover in maintaining the resilience of local ecosystems. This study analyzed the impact of climate change on vegetation in Niger using geoinformation systems and remote sensing technologies. The main research method was the analysis of satellite data from MODIS, Landsat and Sentinel, as well as the use of climate data from the NASA POWER Data Access Viewer portal. The results showed a significant increase in average annual temperatures and a decrease in precipitation in various climatic zones of the country, which negatively affects the state of vegetation and agriculture. NDVI analysis revealed degradation of vegetation cover in the northern and eastern regions of the country, indicating the need to develop adaptation strategies and sustainable management of natural resources. Keywords: REPUBLIC OF THE NIGER, GEOINFORMATION ANALYSIS, REMOTE SENSING OF THE EARTH, GEOINFORMATION SYSTEMS, VEGETATION COVER, AGRICULTURE, ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATION

Comprehensive analysis of the impacts of climate and land use changes on flood damage (Case study: AqQala, Iran)

ABSTRACT Population growth, community development, and waste generation impact climate, land use, water resources, and urban heat island effect. This research assesses the impacts of climate and land use changes on flood damage for different return periods (RPs) in AqQala area, Iran. Climate change anticipation is conducted using the CMCC-ESM2 model under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) 126, 370, and 585 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sixth assessment report (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 – CMIP6). The LARS-WG model is used to downscale climatic information, and land use mapping is processed through Landsat satellite images in ENVI 5.3. The Markov chain method is implemented for 2050 and 2080 via TerrSet. Hydrographs and inundation maps are generated by an Autodesk Storm and Sanitary Analysis (SSA) and a Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) models. Results show an increase in average annual precipitation (up to 46%) and temperatures (up to 3.39 °C) under different SSP scenarios until 2080. The result indicates that land use changes are more significant than climate change. Peak flood discharge and damages could escalate by 38 and 29%, respectively, in the worst-case scenario. Eco-friendly design and implementation are crucial for improving the situation.

Recent shift from energy- to moisture-limitation over global croplands

Hot and dry conditions pose a substantial risk to global crops. The frequency of co-occurring heat and drought depends on land–atmosphere coupling, which can be quantified by the correlation between temperature and evapotranspiration (r(T, ET)). We find that the majority of global croplands have experienced declines in r(T, ET) over the past ∼40 years, indicating a shift to a more moisture-limited state. In some regions, especially Europe, the sign of r(T, ET) has flipped from positive to negative, indicating a transition from energy-limitation to moisture-limitation and suggesting a qualitative shift in the local climate regime. We associate stronger declines in r(T, ET) with faster increases in annual maximum temperatures and larger declines in soil moisture and ET during hot days. Our results suggest that shifts towards stronger land–atmosphere coupling have already increased the sensitivity of crop yields to temperature in much of the world by 12%–37%, as hot days are not only hotter, but also more likely to be concurrently dry.

Widening geographic range of Rift Valley fever disease clusters associated with climate change in East Africa

BackgroundRecent epidemiology of Rift Valley fever (RVF) disease in Africa suggests growing frequency and expanding geographic range of small disease clusters in regions that previously had not reported the disease....

A research on the relationship between landslide area changes and environmental factors in the southern Tibetan plateau

Introduction: Landslides are known to be one of the most frequent types of geological disasters. However, there is not an established method for large-scale, rapid, and high-precision landslide extraction. The quantitative impact of environmental changes on landslide development is also not well understood, which hinders accurate assessments and decision-making in environmental and disaster response. The polar regions, including the Antarctic, the Arctic, and the Tibetan plateau (TP), sensitive to global environmental changes, are significantly affected by global warming. This leads to extensive landslide development, particularly in the southern TP. This research focuses on new landslides in the southern TP, exploring extraction methods and the relationship between landslides and environmental factors.Methods: Utilizing the Google Earth Engine (GEE) and an improved Otsu threshold segmentation algorithm, we processed remote sensing images with 10 m resolution to identify landslide areas. The proposed Normalized Landslide Bare-soil Separation Index (NDLBSI) achieved an 87% pre-extraction accuracy in extracting landslides from Sentinel-2 images from 2019 to 2023. For the pre-extraction results, manual interpretation and correction were carried out, and a model correlating annual landslide changes with environmental factors was established based on least squares multivariate statistical methods.Results: Results show that a significant increase in landslide areas in the southern TP over the past 5 years, correlating with the watershed-wide increase in annual average temperature and vegetation cover, along with a decrease in snow cover area.Discussion: These changes could affect soil and rock moisture, influencing soil stability and landslide occurrence. The study provides valuable insights for large-scale landslide detection and understanding the environmental factors influencing landslides, which is of some significance for landslide hazards early warning.

Projections of temperature and precipitation trends using CMhyd under CMIP6 scenarios: A case study of Iraq's Middle and West

Climate change is becoming a leading issue in the 21st century due to its devastating environmental and socioeconomic impacts. It is believed to have significant impacts on the water resources and groundwater in the Middle East region, especially in Iraq. In this study, three different global climate models, under the 6th IPCC report, were downscaled under two SSPs scenarios in the middle and west of Iraq. The downscaled models were fixed for bias using CMhyd (climate model data for hydrologic modeling) over the study area. This was achieved using data from four locally chosen weather stations from 1983 to 2022. Three CMIP6 global models were considered and compared. These were the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator version 1 (ACCESS-CM2), the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 2 (BCC-CSM2-MR), and the sixth version of the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC6).The findings of this study show that the temperature and precipitation changes in the three models under two scenarios in the future period (2023–2050) show an increasing trend compared to the observation period (1983–2014). The results of the generated predictions show that there will be an increase in annual maximum temperatures by this century's end, by 1.26–2.08 °C under scenario SSP2–4.5 and 1.57–2.34 °C under scenario SSP5–8.5 across all study stations. The study found that the annual increase in precipitation over the observed period varies between scenarios (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5), ranging from +3.56 to +3.87% for SSP2–4.5 and + 7.22% to +12.61% for SSP5–8.5. The results should help improve our understanding of the effects of climate change on the study region and encourage planners and stakeholders to identify optimal strategies for mitigating them.

Uncovering the evolution of ozone pollution in China: A spatiotemporal characteristics reconstruction from 1980 to 2021

Ozone pollution emerged as a significant environmental concern in China in recent years. Given the enduring impact of anthropogenic activities on the atmosphere, understanding the long-term evolutionary patterns of ozone pollution is crucial for effective pollution mitigation strategies. However, there have been limited studies to reconstruct spatiotemporal continuity ozone concentrations in China since 1980. In this research, monthly MDA8 ozone concentrations from 1980 to 2021 were first estimated by reproducing the numerical relations between ozone pollution and the atmospheric environment based on a machine learning approach. The verification results from temporal, spatial, and sample-based cross-validation methods demonstrated the model performance in simulating MDA8 ozone concentration spatiotemporally, with correlation coefficients (R) ranging from 0.76 to 0.79, mean square error (RMSE) ranging from 22.72 μg·m−3 to 24.28 μg·m−3, and mean absolute error (MAE) ranging from 17.06 μg·m−3 to 18.25 μg·m−3. The evolution of ozone pollution in China can be delineated into two phases, characterized by an increasing trend since 2001, coinciding with significant rises in average annual temperature and hot weather frequency over the past four decades. The 90th percentile of ozone concentration from 2001 to 2021 increased by 1.79% compared to the period from 1980 to 2001. Notably, ozone episodes have expanded beyond summer months, partly due to global warming and frequent extreme climate events, contributing to an annual temperature increase of 0.03 °C. Despite several pollutant emission restrictions since 2013, the ozone pollution in China has persisted due to the increased emissions of VOCs. Spatially, severe ozone pollution hotspots are evident in Xinjiang province, the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration, and Northeast China, with notable increases observed in Tibet and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area over the past six years. Moreover, the influence factors were identified by the average reduction of node impurity calculation. The evolution of ozone pollution was inextricably linked to solar radiation and atmospheric temperature, which played pivotal positive roles in ozone formation. Whilst, there is significant heterogeneity in the effect of meteorological conditions on ozone concentrations due to the disparity between land and oceanic climates.

A century-long tendency of change in surface air temperature on the territory of Ukraine

A century-long tendency of change in surface air temperature on the territory of Ukraine

Fuzzy clustering-based climatic zoning method for building climate responsiveness in Qinba region, China

Accurate climate zoning is crucial for enhancing energy efficiency. This study aims to further subdivide microclimate zones to enhance the precision of climate zoning and subsequently propose climate response strategies for the refined areas. The Qinba region, a climatic transition zone between northern and southern China, serves as the focal point of this study. The research employs a fuzzy clustering method, utilizing integrated weights on seven meteorological indicators spanning 40-year period, to delineate climate zones in the Qinba region. The results indicate that parts of Qinba region can be categorized into three clusters significantly correlated with altitude, which are closely consistent with the distribution of climate data and previous researches. Lower altitude areas experience hot summers and warm winters, while higher altitude regions have warm summers and cold winters with a larger increase in average annual temperature. Furthermore, this research confirms the alignment of climate zones with climate response strategies through investigation of over 30 traditional villages with climatic experience and simulation of three typical cities using climate software. Both sources emphasize the significance of sun shading, ventilation, and solar gain as key strategies applicable across all three zones. The proposed method accurately synthesizes various dimensions of meteorological data and is suitable for small-scale climate zoning. It can provide valuable insights for advancing climate-complex small-area zoning and climate-responsive strategies.

Binge drinking associated with mean temperature: a cross-sectional study among Mexican adults living in cities

BackgroundThe association between environmental temperature and alcohol consumption has not been widely explored despite the potential that increasing temperatures could promote the consumption of alcoholic beverages and the alcohol-related burden of disease. We aimed to explore the association between temperature and binge drinking in Mexican adults from urban cities, overall, and by alcoholic beverage type.MethodsData on 10,552 adults ≥ 18 years was obtained from the 2016 National Survey on Drug, Alcohol, and Tobacco Consumption. The mean annual temperature at the municipality was obtained from the Mexican National Weather Service using monthly temperatures from 2015 to 2016. We analyzed binge drinking for all alcoholic beverages in the last year and by type of alcohol as beer, liquor, wine, and coolers. Associations between mean temperature over the past year and binge drinking over the past year among current drinkers were estimated using multilevel Poisson models with robust standard errors adjusted for age, sex, education level, marital status, and household socioeconomic status, with a fixed effect by region.ResultsWe observed a non-significant increase in the prevalence of binge drinking for every difference of 1 °C between municipalities of the same region. By alcohol type, a 1 °C increase in mean annual temperature across municipalities of the same region increased the prevalence of beer binge drinking in the past year by 0.9% (PR = 1.009, 95%CI 1.005, 1.013) among beer consumers and the prevalence of coolers’ binge drinking by 3.0% (PR = 1.030, 95%CI 1.003, 1.057) in coolers consumers. We observed non-significant results for liquor binge drinking (PR = 1.047, 95%CI 0.994, 1.102) and wine binge drinking (PR = 1.047, 95% 0.944, 1.161).ConclusionPeople living in municipalities with higher temperatures reported a higher beer binge drinking in Mexican cities. This could account for 196,000 cases of beer binge drinking in 2016. The context of each country needs to be considered when generalizing these findings, and they need to be further explored with longitudinal data as there might be implications for climate change. If our findings are confirmed given the forecasted rising temperatures, we could expect an increase in binge drinking and therefore, in the alcohol burden of disease.

Effects of soil water content at freezing, thaw temperature, and snowmelt infiltration on N2O emissions and denitrifier gene and transcript abundance during a single freeze-thaw event

Climate change-related warming and increased precipitation may alter winter snow cover and thawing events, and therefore, may carry significant consequences for nitrous oxide (N2O) production pathways such as denitrification, and the abundance and expression of denitrifying microorganisms. We used a soil microcosm study to investigate the combined effect of soil thaw temperature, initial water filled pore space (WFPS) prior to soil freezing, and snowmelt infiltration simulated by the addition of water on N2O emission and denitrification rates, soil respiration rate, and the abundance and transcription of denitrifying (nirK, nirS, and nosZ) bacteria during a single freeze-thaw event. Soil respiration rate was primarily controlled by an increase in soil thaw temperature, whereas soil N2O emission and denitrification rates were generally greater in soils with a higher initial WFPS and soil thaw temperature. In contrast, snowmelt infiltration generally had a negligible effect on these rates, which may be related to pre-existing soil conditions that were already conducive to denitrification. Unexpectedly, the nosZ transcript/nosZ gene abundance ratio was lower in soils thawed at 8.0 °C compared to 1.5 °C; however, this may have resulted in a lower N2O reduction, thus explaining the greater levels of N2O emitted from soils thawed at 8.0 °C. Overall, this study demonstrated that increased N2O production during a single freeze-thaw event was primarily linked to antecedent conditions of high initial WFPS, soil thaw temperature, and a synergistic interplay between these two environmental parameters, and provides evidence that an increase in annual temperature and precipitation, along with the timing of precipitation, may further stimulate N2O production pathways.

Extreme temperatures and school performance of the poor: Evidence from Mexico

As the risks associated with climate change intensify, understanding its impacts on human capital development is crucial. In this paper, we analyze the causal effects of temperature on the academic performance of students in Mexico, a middle-income country facing significant climate risks and socioeconomic challenges. Using panel data on over 5.5 million students, our results show that a 1 °C increase in annual average temperature leads to a 0.07 and 0.08 standard deviation decrease in Spanish and math test scores, respectively. Moreover, a one standard deviation (0.93 °C) increase in the long-term municipal temperature average is associated with 0.04 and 0.03 standard deviation declines in those scores. The effects are context-dependent - students in historically colder municipalities actually benefit from hotter temperatures, likely due to improved learning conditions in under-insulated schools and homes. However, the detrimental impacts appear consistent across urban, rural, and socioeconomically disadvantaged areas, underscoring the vulnerability of marginalized populations to the academic consequences of climate change. Overall, our findings highlight the urgency of addressing the educational dimensions of the global climate crisis through targeted interventions and adaptive policies, particularly in low-and middle-income countries.

The dominant pests (Coleoptera) of cereal crops, and population forecast for this

Goal. Create a forecast of the development of harmful organisms in cereal crops, to determine the economic feasibility of applying plant protection measures.
 Methods. Analysis of the phytosanitary state of cereal crops in Ukraine, where the main attention is paid to the dominant pest species. Analysis of the areas of distribution of these pests, population dynamics, their phenology and the state of populations in the context of natural and climatic zones (Steppe, Forest-steppe and Polissya). To assess the phytosanitary state of crops, and its dynamic changes, the following are used: — the results of phytosanitary monitoring of crops (according to generally accepted methods), which were carried out directly by the staff of the forecast laboratory of the Institute of Plant Protection of NAAS; — current reports of researchers from other laboratories of the Institute of Plant Protection of NAAS from the places of business trips; — materials of decadal reports of regional plant protection stations, as well as signaling and forecasting points; — information on the phytosanitary situation from regional state research stations and institutes of NAAS.
 Results. A study of the phytosanitary state of cereal crops on the territory of Ukraine was carried out, the dominant species of pests were identified, materials were prepared regarding the peculiarities of the phytosanitary state in the conditions of the year, and a long-term (annual) forecast of the development of pests for the next year was drawn up, based on the appropriate analysis of the data obtained.
 Conclusions. In recent years, climate change in Ukraine has manifested itself through an increase in the average annual temperature, and an increase in the sum of effective temperatures. A decrease in the zone of sufficient soil moisture was noted, its line shifted to the north. Under the influence of abiotic factors, pests constantly change the boundaries of their habitat and zones of damage, therefore reliable protection of crops is impossible without constant monitoring, constant clarification of the species composition of phytophages, and phytosanitary forecast. Improved methodological approaches for assessing the phytosanitary state of acrocyanoses and the promptness of obtaining relevant data will allow agricultural producers to make timely decisions on the economic feasibility of using certain plant protection products.

Climate-Affected Australian Tropical Montane Cloud Forest Plants: Metabolomic Profiles, Isolated Phytochemicals, and Bioactivities.

The Australian Wet Tropics World Heritage Area (WTWHA) in northeast Queensland is home to approximately 18 percent of the nation's total vascular plant species. Over the past century, human activity and industrial development have caused global climate changes, posing a severe and irreversible danger to the entire land-based ecosystem, and the WTWHA is no exception. The current average annual temperature of WTWHA in northeast Queensland is 24 °C. However, in the coming years (by 2030), the average annual temperature increase is estimated to be between 0.5 and 1.4 °C compared to the climate observed between 1986 and 2005. Looking further ahead to 2070, the anticipated temperature rise is projected to be between 1.0 and 3.2 °C, with the exact range depending on future emissions. We identified 84 plant species, endemic to tropical montane cloud forests (TMCF) within the WTWHA, which are already experiencing climate change threats. Some of these plants are used in herbal medicines. This study comprehensively reviewed the metabolomics studies conducted on these 84 plant species until now toward understanding their physiological and metabolomics responses to global climate change. This review also discusses the following: (i) recent developments in plant metabolomics studies that can be applied to study and better understand the interactions of wet tropics plants with climatic stress, (ii) medicinal plants and isolated phytochemicals with structural diversity, and (iii) reported biological activities of crude extracts and isolated compounds.

Characteristics and Influence Rules of Roadside Ponding along the Qinghai–Tibet Highway

Due to climate change and seasonal precipitation, water conditions in the Qinghai–Tibet region are a significant factor affecting the stability of subgrades. The accumulation of large amounts of surface water leads to subgrade diseases along the Qinghai–Tibet Highway. Based on remote sensing photos obtained from Google Earth Engine and processing the photos using ENVI 5.6.3 and CAD 2019 software, this paper analyzed the distribution characteristics of surface water and studied the impact of roadside ponding on subgrade diseases. The results showed that the total area of surface water was more than 3.7 million m2, and the surface water was most widely distributed in large river areas such as the Tuotuo River and Buqu River. The subgrade diseases of the Qinghai–Tibet Highway could be categorized into three types: settlement, longitudinal crack, and frost boiling, which accounted for 71.09%, 17.13%, and 11.78% of the total number of subgrade diseases, respectively. Additionally, the ground mean annual temperature was an important factor affecting the distribution of surface water, with the surface water area showing an increasing trend with the increase in ground mean annual temperature, and roadside ponding was most likely to form in the high-temperature extremely unstable permafrost area.

Warming waters lead to increased habitat suitability for juvenile bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas)

Coastal ecosystems are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and other stressors, including urbanization and overfishing. Consequently, distributions of coastal fish have begun to change, particularly in response to increasing temperatures linked to climate change. However, few studies have evaluated how natural and anthropogenic disturbances can alter species distributions in conjunction with geophysical habitat alterations, such as changes to land use and land cover (LU/LC). Here, we examine the spatiotemporal changes in the distribution of juvenile bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas) using a multi-decadal fishery-independent survey of coastal Alabama. Using a boosted regression tree (BRT) modeling framework, we assess the covariance of environmental conditions (sea surface temperature, depth, salinity, dissolved oxygen, riverine discharge, Chl-a) as well as historic changes to LU/LC to the distribution of bull sharks. Species distribution models resultant from BRTs for early (2003–2005) and recent (2018–2020) monitoring periods indicated a mean increase in habitat suitability (i.e., probability of capture) for juvenile bull sharks from 0.028 to 0.082, concomitant with substantial increases in mean annual temperature (0.058°C/yr), Chl-a (2.32 mg/m3), and urbanization (increased LU/LC) since 2000. These results align with observed five-fold increases in the relative abundance of juvenile bull sharks across the study period and demonstrate the impacts of changing environmental conditions on their distribution and relative abundance. As climate change persists, coastal communities will continue to change, altering the structure of ecological communities and the success of nearshore fisheries.

Species gain and loss per degree Celsius

With climate zones moving poleward, it is interesting to know how rapidly species are gained and lost along temperature gradients. For the Australian native vascular flora, observed climate envelopes for species distributions have here been calculated from data for occurrence at geographical locations. For each degree temperature increase along a continental temperature gradient, numbers of species crossing their cold boundary and hence added to the flora, and crossing their warm boundary and hence lost to the flora, were counted. These counts of gains and losses were expressed as percentages of the flora recorded as present at that temperature. We report results for the flora at > 700 mm rainfall pa along the Australian east coast, where higher rainfall is continuously distributed throughout the latitudinal range. Per °C mean annual temperature increase, 20 ± 11% (mean ± SD) of species were gained, and 14 ± 4% were lost, across the range 9–23°C. Many further questions arise. For example, which other continental floras might show faster or slower rates of species gain and loss along temperature gradients? Similarly, might species with particular traits show faster rates of turnover: for example, species with local dispersal such as those with diaspore morphologies adapted for ants, compared to those adapted for bird dispersal?

Hydrological investigation of climate change impact on water balance components in the agricultural terraced watersheds of Yemeni highland

AbstractHydrological models serve as valuable instruments for assessing the impact of climate change on water resources and agriculture as well as for developing adaptation measures. In Yemen, climate change and variability are imposing a significant impact on the most important sectors such as agriculture and economy. The current study evaluates the influence of future climate on hydrology and water balance components in Yemen’s highlands using a semi-distributed physical-based hydrologic model Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and employing high-resolution climate projections. The SWAT was calibrated and verified using observed streamflow data from 1982 to 2000 in three large catchments. Ground data from 24 stations and statistically downscaled future climate data for the period 2010–2100 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 are used. SWAT performance was assessed using multiple statistical methods, which revealed the commendable performance of SWAT during the calibration (average NSE = 0.80) and validation (NSE = 0.72) periods. The outcome indicates an increase in future seasonal and annual rainfall, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature in the 2020s and the 2080s under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. This projected increase in the rainfall and the local temperature will result in increased averages of surface runoff, evapotranspiration, soil water, and groundwater recharge in the representative three catchments up to 6.5%, 21.1%, 7.6%, and 6.4%, respectively. Although, the projected increase in the water balance components will benefit the agriculture and water sector, specific adaptation measures will be crucial to mitigate potential flood impacts arising from the increased precipitations as well as to minimize the consequences of the increased temperature. Likewise, demand for supplementary irrigation is expected to increase to offset the higher evapotranspiration rates in the future.