Increase In House Prices Research Articles

A study on the impact of high-speed rail on the consumption structure of urban and rural residents in China.

Consumption is crucial to individual well-being and national economic development. This study investigates whether high-speed rail (HSR) influences consumption expenditure (CE) and consumption structure (CS) of urban and rural Chinese citizens. Using panel data from 2003 to 2019 and econometric models, this study finds that: (1) HSR significantly increases CE for both urban and rural residents, promotes CS upgrades in rural areas, but inhibits CS upgrades in urban areas. These results remain robust after extensive testing. (2) HSR's impact on urban consumption is relatively focused and singular, whereas its effect on rural consumption is dispersed and extensive. Additionally, the impact of HSR on consumption exhibited significant delays and regional characteristics. (3) Mediation analysis reveals that HSR significantly enhances urban and rural CE and facilitates rural CS upgrades through market, price, and income effects. However, it also triggers housing price increases, impeding urban CS upgrades. This study provides important references for the government to optimize transportation infrastructure investments, promote balanced economic development between urban and rural areas, and enhance residents' well-being.

Immigrants and house prices: myths and realities

PurposeThis paper aims to dissect myths from realities. It delves into the nuanced relationship between immigration and housing, emphasizing that while correlation exists, causation is not straightforward. By exploring factors beyond immigration driving housing costs and the multifaceted impact of immigration on labour markets and economic growth, the paper seeks to inform evidence-based policies. It underscores immigration's pivotal role in filling labour shortages, fostering innovation and offsetting demographic challenges. Ultimately, the paper advocates for nuanced policy responses that acknowledge immigration's contributions while addressing housing affordability concerns, steering away from simplistic narratives and embracing the complexities of the issue.Design/methodology/approachOur methodology entails a comprehensive review of literature to elucidate the complex relationship between immigration and housing prices in Canada. We examine studies estimating causal effects of immigration on housing prices, while also considering myriad factors influencing housing demand and supply. Moreover, we analyse government immigration policies to assess their impact on housing markets. Additionally, we integrate insights from economic theory to understand the interconnectedness between immigration, labour markets and housing affordability. Through rigorous analysis and synthesis of existing research, we aim to provide clarity on the myths and realities surrounding the perceived link between immigration and housing prices.FindingsThe paper highlights Canada's historical support for immigration and its substantial benefits, including addressing labour shortages, enhancing economic growth and cultural diversity. However, concerns over immigration's impact on housing prices have shifted public opinion. While immigration is often correlated with housing price increases, causality is complex, with myriad factors at play. Few studies estimate a small, varied effect of immigration on housing prices. Importantly, immigrants increasingly settle in areas with lower housing costs, suggesting self-correcting equilibrium. Immigration also serves as a vital labour source, potentially alleviating housing supply bottlenecks. Restrictive immigration policies risk overlooking these multifaceted contributions to the economy and housing markets.Originality/valueThe paper delineates the complex relationship between immigration and housing prices in Canada, elucidating that while immigration is often correlated with housing price increases, it may not be the causal factor. It highlights the myriad of factors, beyond immigration, influencing housing demand and supply. Despite concerns over immigrants' impact on housing affordability, their contribution to labour markets, innovation and economic growth is substantial. The discussion underscores the importance of informed policies that address both housing affordability and labor market needs. Immigration, far from being solely a factor driving up housing prices, serves as a vital source of labour, fostering economic vitality and cultural diversity in Canada.

Analysis Of the Impact of China's Population Age Structure on Residential Commercial Housing Prices

With the intensification of global aging, the impact of changes in population age structure on the real estate market is becoming increasingly significant. This article aims to explore the impact of changes in China's population age structure on the prices of residential commercial housing, to provide a scientific basis for regulating the real estate market. By analyzing data from 30 provinces and cities in China from 2013 to 2022, this article finds that as aging population intensifies and the number of children decreases, both the old-age dependency ratio and the child-age dependency ratio have a negative impact on housing prices. This means that the aging society and the economic pressure of childcare may weaken the demand for home purchases. Household Saving Rate and increase in total population positively drive house prices, while the relationship between per capita income and house prices is not significant. From a regional perspective, the aging population in the eastern region has a significant effect on suppressing housing prices, while the impact is gradually evident in the central region. The western region has a smaller impact and population growth suppresses housing price increases. The study emphasizes the impact of changes in the age structure of the Chinese population on the prices of residential properties and proposes policy recommendations such as improving old-age security and optimizing the housing supply structure to promote the steady development of the real estate market.

Research on the Influencing Factors of Rental House Prices

Since the 1990s, China's real estate market has gradually recovered, and has developed into a large and mature trading market today, as the housing price increase, the demand of housing rental also increases a lot. Based on this this article aims to identify the factors that have an impact on rental price. The method of multi-linear regression is used to analyze the factors with over 10,000 samples in Guangzhou from May 2020 to June 2020 from the website of LianJia, one of the biggest real estate agencies in China. The dataset contains 10 variables in total, this research uses VIF, Pearson correlation coefficient to narrow the variables down to District, Rent Type, Area, Elevator Flag and Buld Floor these five variables and considered that they have a significant linear relationship with rental price. By focusing on these variables this study provides a view of the relationship of demand and supply of China’s renting market.

Returning from Prison to a Changed City: How Does Gentrification Shape the Employment and Housing Opportunities of Returning Citizens?

Studies of returning citizens have found they benefit from living in well-resourced neighborhoods, yet they face obstacles to securing housing in these communities. Insofar as gentrification involves investing more public and private resources into communities, this raises the question of how this investment affects returning citizens whose former homes are in gentrifying neighborhoods—a common circumstance in Washington, DC. Based on 37 in-depth interviews with returning citizens from Washington DC, this study explores the impact of gentrification. We find that the increased housing prices associated with gentrification make it difficult for returning citizens to move to gentrified areas; that gentrification exacerbates the barriers they face to accessing employment opportunities; and that gentrifiers often make returning citizens feel unwelcome in the communities where they were raised. In sum, we find that returning citizens, like other long-term residents of gentrifying neighborhoods, face structural barriers both to living in gentrified neighborhoods and to accessing available resources.

Does urbanization drive up housing prices? Novel evidence from remote sensing and dynamic panel quantile regression

Purpose This study aims to quantify the influence of urbanization on housing prices at the district-based level, while also investigating the heterogeneous impacts across different quantiles of housing prices. Design/methodology/approach The study uses remote-sensed spectral images from the Landsat 7 ETM+ satellite to measure urbanization, replacing prior reliance solely on urban population metrics. Subsequently, the two-step system generalized method of moments is used to evaluate how urbanization influences district-based housing prices through three spectrometries: Urban Index (UI), Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) and Built-Up Index (BUI). Finally, this study examines the heterogeneous impacts across various housing price quantiles through Dynamic Panel Quantile Regression with non-additive fixed effects under Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. Findings The study demonstrates that urbanization leads to an increase in regional housing prices. However, these impact magnitudes vary across housing price quantiles. Specifically, the impact exhibits an inverse V-shaped curve, with urbanization exerting a more pronounced influence on the 60th percentile of housing prices, while its effect on the 10th and 90th percentiles is comparatively weaker. Originality/value This study uses a novel method of remote sensing to measure urbanization and investigates its effects on housing prices. Furthermore, it provides an empirical application of non-additive fixed effect quantile regression for analyzing heterogeneity.

Why Did House Prices Go Up During COVID-19 Pandemic? Policy-Driven or Market-Driven?

During the spread of the COVID-19 virus, governments in many countries took temporary measures to mitigate and/or remove the cost of its negative effects on both society and the economy. In Türkiye, as in many countries, the deposit banks cut mortgage interest rates. Thus, Türkiye has experienced large increases in house prices, as have many countries. Türkiye has also become the country with the highest average annual rate of house price increase among the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries during the pandemic period. However, despite an increase in the number of studies on house prices or mortgage loans during the pandemic period, there is a research gap in terms of a comparison of the relationship between house prices and mortgage loans in the pre-pandemic and the pandemic periods compared with that on other assets or in other sectors,. This study aims to rectify this gap. To achieve this, both the Fourier Granger and the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality tests are used. The results indicate that there are differences in both periods of time with respect to the relationship between mortgage loans and house prices in Türkiye, and that there is a causal relationship between both factors in the prepandemic period, but not during the pandemic period.

1인 가구 특성이 주택점유에 미치는 영향

Single-person households are closely associated with the social issue of housing poverty. The purpose of this study is to present policy alternatives for addressing the challenges faced by single-person households by examining the influence of socio-economic and locational characteristics on occupancy patterns. The results of this study are as follows. The results of the binary logistic regression analysis are as follows. The results revealed that bereavement, increased management costs, residing in the Seoul metropolitan area, being employed in labor, sales, or service occupations, living in officetels or one-room apartments, and owning a car showed statistically significant associations with self-probability. Ragarding of regional characteristics, it was observed that the closer people reside to the metropolitan area, the higher the probability of leasing. Specifically, Gyeonggi-do Province has a higher likelihood of leasing than Seoul. This suggests that tenants may be moving to Gyeonggi Province due to the steep monthly rent increase in Seoul, which they cannot afford. Based on the results of this study, housing support measures and policy implications are presented. The younger generation requires priority housing support measures compared to other generations to address the low birth rate. During a period of continuous increase in housing prices and rents, it is essential to implement housing support measures to prevent involuntary displacement from current residences.

How the War between Russia and Ukraine Caused a Multi-Cycle in the Polish Housing Market

We examine the effects of the war between Russia and Ukraine on the housing market in the six largest cities in Poland and explain how these effects emerged. Since Poland’s transition to a market economy and its accession to the EU, Poland has experienced normal cycles in house prices, i.e. relatively long periods of increases in house prices followed by similarly long periods of decreases in house prices. However, the combination of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war between Russia and Ukraine created a situation that can be described as a multi-cycle. The pandemic initially halted nearly all transactions on the market, but after a few quarters of fiscal and monetary intervention aimed at saving the economy we observed a housing boom. Just a few quarters later, the Russian aggression in Ukraine caused significant inflation, which required a sharp increase in interest rates, and once again demand slowed down. This was followed just a few quarters later by a resurgence in house purchases in order to escape inflation, with many people using cash for these purchases. This situation has shaken the housing market, while the war has also generated a demographic shock. Construction and transportation workers began returning to Ukraine to help in its reconstruction, while women with children came to Poland from Ukraine seeking safety and creating a demand for rental housing.

Das House Kapital: A Long-Run Theory of House Prices and Housing Wealth

Abstract Over the last 70 years, many advanced countries have experienced growing real house prices and an increasing housing wealth-to-income ratio. To explain these long-run patterns, this paper introduces a novel multi-sector growth model where housing services are produced using non-reproducible land and reproducible structures. Land is also employed in the non-housing sector. First, we identify two fundamental mechanisms driving the long-run increase in the real house price: (i) technological progress in the construction sector lags behind the technological progress of the rest of the economy and (ii) housing production is more land-intensive than non-housing production. Second, we study transitional dynamics for the US, UK, France, and Germany. Our calibrated model explains most of the observed increase in the housing wealth-to-income ratio since 1950. Counterfactual experiments identify initially low stocks of residential structures and non-residential capital as key exogenous drivers for this increase. The associated investment incentives led to a long-lasting construction boom and steadily increasing land scarcity, boosting residential land prices.

UTJECAJ ODABRANIH MAKROEKONOMSKIH VARIJABLI NA CIJENE STAMBENIH OBJEKATA U HRVATSKOJ

Recognizing the macroeconomic determinants that have a statistically significant influence on the formation of house prices is in the interest of the general public due to its informative effect on various interest groups involved in housing construction. Thus, real estate buyers, investors, as well as local government and self-government units should be interested in this information because monitoring of standard macroeconomic variables can provide conclusions about the possible development of residential property prices. Previously conducted research can be classified into four distinctive categories depending on what they take as determining variables: microelements specific to individual micro location, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, standard macroeconomic variables, or tourism development. The aim of this study is to analyze the influence of selected macroeconomic variables on residential property prices in Croatia. This study employs Autometrics, i.e. an automatic computer implementation of general-to-specific VAR (vector autoregressive) modelling framework and quarterly data on real GDP, domestic credit, consumer prices, interest rate, tourist arrivals and house prices in the period from March 2005 to September 2022. Performed Granger causality tests and impulse response functions analysis indicate that an increase in real GDP, domestic credit and tourist arrivals increases house prices in Croatia while an increase in consumer prices and interest rate reduces them.

Do surging house prices discourage fertility? Global evidence, 1870–2012

This paper examines the relationship between house prices and fertility rates during the global fertility transition. We establish an analytical framework that considers the complementary nature of children and housing, leading to the hypothesis of a negative effect of house prices on fertility when they are highly complementary. We utilize a newly published house prices dataset spanning 1870 to 2012, covering multiple countries, and employ fixed effect and dynamic panel estimations to address identification challenges including unobserved heterogeneity and dynamic effects. Results show that surging house prices discourage fertility, with a ten percent increase in real house prices associated with a reduction of 0.01 to 0.03 births per woman. These effects are comparable to the impact of increased female education. Our findings offer insights into the evolving patterns of global fertility trends, underscoring the role of increased housing costs in shaping demographic changes.

Do households value lower density: Theory, evidence, and implications from Washington, DC

A substantial literature demonstrates that zoning restrictions on building height or density lower supply and increase housing prices. However, negative externalities due to household preferences for lower neighborhood density could justify restrictions on private developers. Thus building density in a laissez-faire city may be above the welfare maximizing level. The potential external costs of height and density are tested here and found to be substantial. Increased building separation appears to mitigate the external cost of height. This implies that some level of density or floor regulation (FAR) may be welfare-enhancing, and that the gap between price and marginal construction cost may overstate the social cost of zoning because households value lower density. The analysis considers residential density and not employment density which can give rise to other types of externalities.

Urbanization Impacts the Soaring Housing Price of Hangzhou During 2018-2022

This paper examines the reasons for the rapid increase in housing prices in Hangzhou between 2018 and 2022. As one of China's fast-growing cities, Hangzhou has experienced significant changes in its real estate market due to continued population growth and accelerated urbanization, especially driven by major events such as the G20 Summit and the Asian Games. Firstly, the improvement and expansion of the city's infrastructure, especially the development of Hangzhou's metro network, has increased the attractiveness and property values of specific areas. Second, the government's talent admission policies and the city's overall attractiveness led to a population surge, further pushing up housing demand. In addition, special events such as the G20 Summit and the Asian Games and the urban renewal programs they bring have stimulated housing prices to a certain extent. In response to these reasons, it is recommended that the government take multifaceted measures to control the excessive rise in housing prices, including strengthening the regulation of the real estate market, rationalizing the planning of urban development, and providing more affordable and rental housing. The Government has optimized its policies to meet the housing needs of different income groups so as to achieve long-term stability and healthy development of the real estate market.

THE IMPACT OF THE DIGITAL ECONOMY ON URBAN HOUSE PRICES: COMPREHENSIVE EXPLORATIONS

Internet technology and data-driven innovations are changing the way people live and work, which could have an impact on real estate supply and demand. Therefore, this study focuses on the relationship between urban digital economy growth and urban house prices. First, the empirical model shows that the digital economy has an inverted U-shaped impact on urban housing prices. The mechanisms underlying this relationship were then examined. The results indicated that fixed asset investment, government expenditure, and the urban environment influence the relationship between digital economy growth and urban house prices. Finally, a heterogeneity analysis revealed that the digital economy does not affect house prices in Tier 1, New Tier 1, and Tier 2 Chinese cities, but increases house prices in Tier 3 cities. In Tier 4 and Tier 5 cities, this relationship was found to be inverted U-shaped. These findings offer valuable insights to policymakers in China in balancing the growth of the digital economy and the stability of house prices.

The role of new green construction in neighborhood change and gentrification

Recent research has highlighted the potential for green certification to contribute to gentrification in urban areas. This occurs as the adoption of a reductionist sustainability planning language can turn green-certified houses into luxury goods that attract primarily White, college-educated, and pro-environmental households, who may replace existing long-term residents, particularly lower-income residents and racial minorities, in core urban areas. This study aims to assess the extent to which the supply of green-certified units affects neighborhood change and gentrification. Using housing market transaction data from Central Virginia’s Multiple Listing Service and socioeconomic data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we employ a difference-in-differences approach to analyze the differential effect of new construction of market-rate, EarthCraft-certified units in Richmond Metro Area. Our results show that neighborhoods with new green-certified units experience statistically significant increases in population growth, new construction, and house prices. We observe trends that suggest potential negative impacts on minorities. However, these observed trends have not reached statistical significance. Our study provides evidence that green housing can contribute to the conditions that make residential zones ripe for gentrification, thus, highlighting the need to balance the benefits of green certification with the potential negative impacts on disadvantaged groups.

Does monetary policy contribute to housing price booms? Empirical evidence from the US economy

Purpose This study aims to investigate the effect of monetary policy on housing prices for US economy. It specifically examines whether nominal or real interest rates are the key drivers behind fluctuations in housing prices in US. Design/methodology/approach Monthly data from January 1991 to July 2023 and various appropriate analytical tools such as unit root tests, Johansen’s cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), impulse response function and Granger causality test were applied for the data analysis. Findings The Johansen cointegration findings reveal the presence of a long-term relationship among the variables. VECM results indicate a negative correlation between nominal and real interest rates and housing prices in both the short and long terms, suggesting that a strict monetary policy can help in controlling the housing price increase in the USA. However, housing prices are more responsive to changes in nominal interest rates than to real interest rates. Additionally, the study reveals that the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the upsurge in housing prices in the USA. Originality/value This study contributes by examining the role that nominal or real interest rates play in shaping housing prices in the USA. Moreover, given the recent significant upsurge in housing prices, this study presents a unique opportunity to investigate whether these price increases are influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions regarding nominal or real interest rates. Additionally, using monthly data, this study provides a deeper understanding of the fluctuations in housing prices and their connection to monetary policy tools.

Effects of Urban Parks on Housing Prices in the Post-COVID-19 Pandemic Era in China

Urban parks are important for improving the quality of living environments. Although the impact of parks on housing prices has been well documented, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic remain vague. This paper analyzes the housing prices of neighborhoods around Meixi Lake park in Changsha, at the initial stage of the COVID-19 pandemic in June 2020 and the stable stage of the recovery period in June 2023, which demonstrates the impacts of urban parks on property pricing and housing choice based on residential transaction data. The results indicate that urban parks are given a high priority in determining people’s choices. In June 2020, the risk of epidemic transmission and noise interference lowered the price of property that is close to public parks and recreational facilities. However, good management and social services in residential areas increase housing prices. However, when the pandemic ended, the strong demand for outdoor activities led to a price rise in the properties near Meixi Lake park. People are most likely to choose houses in a neighborhood characterized by good educational facilities and a high-quality living environment. More specially, the houses with a short distance to parks and where residents can enjoy the view of a lake or mountains are preferable to any others. A residential area adjacent to a super large park paired with a small park is the most valuable consideration for property developers and housing consumers.

Analysis of the Factors Influencing Housing Prices in Yunnan and Guizhou Based on Linear Regression

The real estate industry contributes significantly to the national economy. In reality, it has a significant impact on the lives of residents. It is of great significance to study the factors that affect the housing price for the development of the real estate industry. Based on the real estate data of Yunnan Province and Guizhou Province from January 2012 to December 2022, this study will analyze the factors influencing the housing prices of Yunnan Province and Guizhou Province. In addition to SPSS research, multiple regression analysis will be used in this paper. According to the analysis, housing prices in Yunnan and Guizhou provinces will rise with the decline of long-term loan interest rates. Besides, the residential consumer price index negatively affects housing prices in Yunnan and Guizhou provinces. Moreover, an increase in the amount of real estate investment will lead to an increase in housing prices. On this basis, the completed real estate area has a negative relationship with house prices.

Effect of conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks on housing prices in Canada

This paper investigates the relative importance and effect of conventional and unconventional Canadian monetary policy surprises on housing prices. Using a credible approach to identify structural monetary policy shocks in Canada and a comprehensive Bayesian VAR model to analyze their effects on financial and macroeconomic variables, we find that both conventional monetary policy and quantitative easing shocks have a significant and persistent effect on housing prices in Canada. However, the inflationary effect of a quantitative easing shock is more pronounced than that of an easing target monetary policy surprise. Specifically, the peak effect of a 25-basis point expansionary conventional monetary policy shock is a 2.30% increase in real housing prices while a comparable quantitative easing surprise leads to a peak of 4.56% increase in real housing prices. We conclude that expansionary monetary policy in various forms has had significant inflationary effects on Canadian housing prices. But quantitative easing surprises stand out as the most prominent contributory factor to the escalating Canadian real estate price. Quantitative easing impact consistently outweighs the effects of forward guidance and conventional monetary policy shocks.