Consistent Beliefs Research Articles

Dynamic Consistency and Subjective Beliefs

Using the notion of subjective beliefs from Rigotti et al. (2008), we provide, for a wide variety of dynamic models with ambiguity aversion, a connection between Dynamic Consistency, prior by prior Bayesian updating of beliefs revealed by trading behavior and positive value of information. We apply these characterizations in a multi agent setting. First, we show that a weakening of DC, consistent with Ellsberg type behavior, precludes speculative trade, generalizing the result of Milgrom and Stokey (1982). Second, we show that, in a risk sharing environment with no aggregate risk, if the value of information is positive for all agents, then the value of public information is negative, generalizing the result of Schlee (2001). JEL-Classication s: D81, D83, D91

How to Be a Bayesian Dogmatist

ABSTRACTRational agents have (more or less) consistent beliefs. Bayesianism is a theory of consistency for partial belief states. Rational agents also respond appropriately to experience. Dogmatism is a theory of how to respond appropriately to experience. Hence, Dogmatism and Bayesianism are theories of two very different aspects of rationality. It's surprising, then, that in recent years it has become common to claim that Dogmatism and Bayesianism are jointly inconsistent: how can two independently consistent theories with distinct subject matter be jointly inconsistent? In this essay I argue that Bayesianism and Dogmatism are inconsistent only with the addition of a specific hypothesis about how the appropriate responses to perceptual experience are to be incorporated into the formal models of the Bayesian. That hypothesis isn't essential either to Bayesianism or to Dogmatism, and so Bayesianism and Dogmatism are jointly consistent. That leaves the matter of how experiences and credences are related, and so in the remainder of the essay I offer an alternative account of how perceptual justification, as the Dogmatist understands it, can be incorporated into the Bayesian formalism.

A Neighborhood Notion of Emergent Literacy: One Mixed Methods Inquiry to Inform Community Learning

Using a convergent parallel mixed methods design, this study considered the early literacy and language environments actualized by childcare providers and parents of young children (ages 3–5) living in one large urban community in the United States of America. Both childcare providers and parents responded to questionnaires and participated in focus groups held at various community sites within the neighborhood. Using snowball sampling, 77 childcare providers and 149 parents responded to surveys that asked about their individual roles in children’s emergent literacy development. Subsequently, several focus groups were held, ensuring childcare provider and parent representation from both center and home-based early childcare sites. Study questions considered the consistencies and inconsistencies in beliefs and actions by members of both community groups regarding early literacy development. Consistencies and inconsistencies were identified through a descriptive comparative analysis within and across survey and focus group data to guide the implementation of practical, ecological, research-based community learning that can be used as a model for other communities seeking to create similar communities of practice.

Empathetic Games

We investigate the effects of players’ mutual empathy, or the interdependence of players’ payoffs, on their behavior and welfare. To this end, we augment the conventional game-theoretic framework by allowing players’ utilities to depend not only on the strategy profile being played, but also on the realized utilities of other players. We call the resulting framework an empathetic game. Generally, in these games players’ utilities are not reducible to preferences over strategies due to novel feedback effects; thus, standard solution concepts, such as the Nash equilibrium, cannot be applied. We extend the notion of a Nash equilibrium to these settings by endowing players with consistent beliefs regarding others’ payoffs. We show that under mild assumptions our solution concept is well defined. We then apply the framework to analyze how mutual empathy affects strategic interactions, and find that it qualitatively changes players’ incentives. First, empathetic games can generate excessive multiplicity of equilibria owing to many supporting beliefs. Second, we uncover a new source of inefficiency, called payoff inefficiency, as players may coordinate their beliefs on socially suboptimal solutions to the interdependent payoff system. Finally, we show that these two features are common in sympathetic (altruistic) games, in which the payoffs of all players depend positively on others’ payoffs; however, payoff inefficiency never occurs in two-player antipathetic games, in which payoffs are negatively related.

The Dueling Influences on Stigma toward Mental Illness: Effects of Interpersonal Familiarity and Stigmatizing Mediated Portrayals of Mental Illness on Attitudes

Popular media is both a common source for information about mental illness and notorious for its disproportionately negative and violent portrayals of those with mental illness. This research undertook an experiment ( N = 92) to explore the competing influences of mass communication messages and interpersonal familiarity/ experience with people with mental illness on stigmatizing attitudes toward the mentally ill. Results demonstrate that exposure to negative, violent mediated portrayals of the mentally ill increase stigmatizing attitudes toward the mentally ill, while exposure to positive, sympathetic portrayals of the mentally ill relates to less stigmatizing attitudes toward the mentally ill. Greater interpersonal familiarity with those with mental illness was related to less stigmatizing attitudes toward the mentally ill regardless of viewing condition. Transportation and presence experienced while viewing the narratives with mental illness portrayals was proposed as a contributing mechanism behind adopting story consistent beliefs, but it was not related to adopting narrative consistent attitudes.

In search of good probability assessors: an experimental comparison of elicitation rules for confidence judgments

In this paper, we use an experimental design to compare the performance of elicitation rules for subjective beliefs. Contrary to previous works in which elicited beliefs are compared to an objective benchmark, we consider a purely subjective belief framework (confidence in one’s own performance in a cognitive task and a perceptual task). The performance of different elicitation rules is assessed according to the accuracy of stated beliefs in predicting success. We measure this accuracy using two main factors: calibration and discrimination. For each of them, we propose two statistical indexes and we compare the rules’ performances for each measurement. The matching probability method provides more accurate beliefs in terms of discrimination, while the quadratic scoring rule reduces overconfidence and the free rule, a simple rule with no incentives, which succeeds in eliciting accurate beliefs. Nevertheless, the matching probability appears to be the best mechanism for eliciting beliefs due to its performances in terms of calibration and discrimination, but also its ability to elicit consistent beliefs across measures and across tasks, as well as its empirical and theoretical properties.

Equivalence class verification of the contract net protocol-extension

The contract net protocol is a task allocation protocol that facilitates negotiation between bidders and an auctioneer in a multi-agent system to form a contract. The contract net protocol-extension (CNP-ext) allows the bidders to interact with more than one auctioneer concurrently, and to update their bids until a bid is granted. This introduces flexibility and ensures better selection of a bid. In earlier work, we modelled the CNP-ext with coloured petri nets and showed that it terminates correctly. We also analysed the terminal states and proved that the agents have consistent beliefs at the end of negotiations. Lastly, we showed how the number of terminal states and channel bounds are related to the number of bidders. However, due to state space explosion, our results were restricted to five bidders. As all bidders are considered identical, symmetries exist in the state space. Hence, we decided to tackle this problem using equivalence classes. In this paper, after first presenting an introduction to the CNP-ext, we present a substantial revision to our CNP-ext model and an intentionally didactic description of its operation. Then, we use equivalence classes to analyse the protocol and, importantly, present a proof that our equivalence specification is consistent. Using this technique, we are able to extend the verification results to twenty-four bidders.

예비 과학 교사의 과학, 과학 학습, 과학 교수에 대한 인식론적 신념: 인식론적 신념의 맥락 의존성

교사의 인식론적 신념을 바라보는 이론적 입장은 크게 영역과 무관하게 발달된다는 입장과 상황이나 맥락에 따라 차별적으로 활성화된다고 바라보는 입장으로 나누어 볼 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 교사의 인식론적 신념을 보다 복합적인 구인으로 이해하기 위해 과학 교사의 인식론적 신념이 서로 다른 과학 내용 지식의 영역(용불용설, 임페투스론)에서 그리고 '과학 지식', '과학 학습', '과학 교수'라는 세 가지 상황에서 어느 정도의 일관성이 있는지, 인식론적 신념의 맥락의존성을 고찰하였다. 연구 결과 예비교사들의 인식론적 신념이 '과학 지식', '과학 학습', '과학 교수' 세 가지 상황에서 일관적인 경우는 극히 적었다. 두 가지 상황에서만 일치하는 연관적 신념이 대부분이었고 세 가지 상황에서 모두 서로 다른 유형의 인식론적 신념을 가진 비일관적 신념을 가진 비율이 일관적인 인식론적 신념을 가진 비율보다 높았다. 또 용불용설과 임페투스론 두 주제 영역을 가로질러 예비교사들의 인식론적 신념이 일관적인지 알아본 결과 '과학 지식'과 '과학 교수' 상황에서는 주제 영역과 관계없이 일관적 신념을 보인 비율이 높았으나 '과학 학습' 상황에서는 주제 영역에 따라 인식론적 신념이 달라지는 경우가 일관적인 경우보다 더 많았다. 이러한 연구 결과를 바탕으로 예비교사들이 보다 일관된 인식론적 신념을 통합적으로 구성할 수 있도록 도와주기 위한 시사점을 논의하였다. This study examined pre-service secondary physics teachers' epistemological beliefs about scientific knowledge, science learning, and science teaching in two different science content topics, Lamarckism and the impetus theory. Two sets of open-ended questionnaires, for each of the topics respectively, were developed in the same format. The pre-service teachers completed the questionnaires at one month intervals. The beliefs were analyzed in two dimensions, knowledge justification and knowledge change for each belief area. The findings show that the majority of pre-service teachers held sophisticated epistemological beliefs about scientific knowledge regardless of content topics. On the other hand, more pre-service teachers exhibited sophisticated beliefs about science learning in the context impetus theory than Lamarckism. In the area of science teaching, the majority of pre-service teachers demonstrated a sophisticated view in knowledge justification but a naive view in knowledge change. When consistency across science topics and belief areas were examined, few pre-service teachers held consistent epistemological beliefs across all topics and areas. The difference in the levels of sophistication in belief areas showed that the pre-service teachers did not connect their epistemological beliefs about science knowledge to their ideas about science teaching and learning. This disconnection seems to make the consistency across topics and areas complicated. The difference in epistemological beliefs about science learning and teaching between two science topics need further inquiry. Implications for teacher education are offered.

Content Analysis of the Sixth-Grade Book of “Thought and Research” Based on Curriculum Criteria (Philosophy for Children)

This study aims to achieve a level of training categories (Philosophy for Children) on the content of thought and research sixth-grade book published in 2013. Studies were carried out according to the method of application and descriptive data collection, in which data was collected by content analysis method. Data collection tools in the study are checklists of teaching philosophy to children program criteria, including four concepts (reasoning, conceptualization, judgment and wisdom) and sixteen sub-components. In this study, analysis basis was sentences, paragraphs and questions on the content of the studied book. Due to the limited size of the population, the ‘sample population’ was selected. The descriptive analysis methods (frequency, percentage and mean tables) were used for analyzing the findings. The results showed that the authors have paid more attention to some components of teaching philosophy to children, such as links between concepts, reality representation, cognition, inductive and deductive methods, application of criteria, difference, similarity, and decentralization and less attention to some components such as benchmarking, consistent beliefs and behaviors, true-heartedness and good deeds, faith to good words and deeds, and knowing the truth.

광고메시지에 대한 신념불일치와 자기애 성향에 따른 광고메시지 태도 및 구매의도

광고메시지에 대한 신념불일치와 자기애 성향에 따른 광고메시지 태도 및 구매의도

Belief Inconsistency in Conspiracy Theorists

This study investigated the relationship between conspiratorial beliefs and doublethink. Particularly, it assessed whether conspiratorial ideation (beliefs and theories) was associated with proneness to belief incoherency (doublethink). In total, 257 adults completed online survey measures. Conspiratorial ideation was positively associated with belief incoherency. Study implications and limitations are considered.

Psychological dimensions of Elenchus in the Gorgias

In this article, I argue that, in showing inconsistency of beliefs, Socratic elenchus is showing incompatibility of the desires those beliefs express. This thesis explains Socrates’ claim that, in refuting Callicles, he is also restraining his desires. The beliefs in question are about the best kind of life to lead; such beliefs express the second order desire to lead a life in which certain sorts of first order desires are satisfied. Socrates’ elenchus shows that Callicles is caught between two incompatible second order desires: a desire to lead of life of enormous pleasure and a desire to lead a life in which his love of honor is satisfied. Socrates does not succeed with Callicles because the way out of this dilemma depends on a type of desire not found in the moral psychology of the Gorgias , i.e., a desire whose satisfaction is pleasure unmixed with pain, described in Republic 583c-585e and Philebus 50e-52b.

Rationality: a social-epistemology perspective.

Both in philosophy and in psychology, human rationality has traditionally been studied from an “individualistic” perspective. Recently, social epistemologists have drawn attention to the fact that epistemic interactions among agents also give rise to important questions concerning rationality. In previous work, we have used a formal model to assess the risk that a particular type of social-epistemic interactions lead agents with initially consistent belief states into inconsistent belief states. Here, we continue this work by investigating the dynamics to which these interactions may give rise in the population as a whole.

What causes breast cancer? A systematic review of causal attributions among breast cancer survivors and how these compare to expert-endorsed risk factors.

The aim of this paper was to review published research that analyzed causal attributions for breast cancer among women previously diagnosed with breast cancer. These attributions were compared with risk factors identified by published scientific evidence in order to determine the level of agreement between cancer survivors' attributions and expert opinion. A comprehensive search for articles, published between 1982 and 2012, reporting studies on causal attributions for breast cancer among patients and survivors was undertaken. Of 5,135 potentially relevant articles, 22 studies met the inclusion criteria. Two additional articles were sourced from reference lists of included studies. Results indicated a consistent belief among survivors that their own breast cancer could be attributed to family history, environmental factors, stress, fate, or chance. Lifestyle factors were less frequently identified, despite expert health information highlighting the importance of these factors in controlling and modifying cancer risk. This review demonstrated that misperceptions about the contribution of modifiable lifestyle factors to the risk of breast cancer have remained largely unchanged over the past 30 years. The findings of this review indicate that beliefs about the causes of breast cancer among affected women are not always consistent with the judgement of experts. Breast cancer survivors did not regularly identify causal factors supported by expert consensus such as age, physical inactivity, breast density, alcohol consumption, and reproductive history. Further research examining psychological predictors of attributions and the impact of cancer prevention messages on adjustment and well-being of cancer survivors is warranted.

Where there are internal defeaters, there are “confirmers”

There is widespread consensus that there are undercutting and rebutting defeaters that diminish or destroy the warrant of a belief B. I argue that there are counterparts of defeaters: the counterparts of undercutting defeaters are “requirement fulfillment beliefs”, the counterparts of rebutting defeaters are “consistency beliefs”. These beliefs confirm the warrant of B, I therefore call them “confirmers”.

Medical Ethics: Context Is the Key Word

Medical Ethics is no different to Ethics, but relates specifically to the doctor-patient relationship. This relationship is based on mutual trust—trust in the doctor’s expertise and knowledge and trust that the patient is consulting the doctor, for his/her/their own health, wellbeing and welfare, without agenda or bias. In other words, the basis of the doctor-patient relationship is one of mutual trust and confidence. Thus, what is imparted between them is held in the strictest confidence. The doctor must act within the law. No third party influence can be brought to bear on this relationship without the patient’s consent. In the case of minors the relationship is between the child’s guardians as well as the doctor who must act within the law. In the category of “elderly” or adult guardianship or advocacy, those appointed and in positions of trust must take the person’s wishes into account if the patient has capacity to make decisions or has indicated their wish prior to any such appointment. Capacity is defined as consistent belief or wish, awareness of what one does not wish for, satisfaction when wishes are respected and fulfilled and the opposite when they are not. Ethical practice is determined by taking context into account in decision-making and ensuring the sanctity of the patient’s rights and wishes. Abuse is just the opposite, where actions taken or not taken are against a person’s wishes. Personal wish determines best interest. Best interest may also be defined in terms of social functioning and psychological wellbeing. Discussion of ethics in terms of General Systems Theory is also addressed, and affects an action on the environment or others, i.e. ethics in the wider medical context may pertain if the person has a contagious disease and a period of quarantine or “isolation” or barrier” nursing is required, and where precedent is given to society’s best interest over the person’s wishes, as part of an educational process and as required for strategic disease management.

Exponential GARCH Modelling of the Inflation-Inflation Uncertainty Relationship for Ghana

This study examines the asymmetric effects of inflation on inflation uncertainty in Ghana for the period 1963:4 to 2014:2. Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model is employed on monthly inflation rates to estimate inflation uncertainty. Two complementary approaches are used to determine the empirical relationship between inflation and its uncertainty. In the first approach, inflation dummy is included in the variance equation and in the second, we employ the two-step procedure in which Granger causality test is performed on the monthly inflation rates and the conditional variance generated from the EGARCH model. We find strong support for both Friedman-Ball and Cukierman-Meltzer hypotheses for the full sample as well as the inflation targeting period. Given the current build-up in inflationary pressures in Ghana, our results warn of possible costs of not keeping inflation in check. The major policy implication that follows from this study is that the Bank of Ghana should strive to minimize the gap between actual and target inflation levels so the public will have consistent belief in all announced policy targets.

Can We Build Behavioral Game Theory?

The way economists and other social scientists model how people make interdependent decisions is through the theory of games. Psychologists and behavioral economists, however, have established many deviations from the predictions of game theory. In response to these findings, a broad movement has arisen to salvage the core of game theory. Extant models of interdependent decision-making try to improve their explanatory domain by adding some corrective terms or limits. We will make the argument that this approach is misguided. For this approach to work, the deviations would have to be consistent. Drawing in part on our experimental results, we will argue that deviations from classical models are not consistent for any individual from one task to the next or between individuals for the same task. In turn, the problem of finding an equilibrium strategy is not easier but rather is exponentially more difficult. It does not seem that game theory can be repaired by adding corrective terms (such as consideration of personal characteristics, social norms, heuristic or bias terms, or cognitive limits on choice and learning). In what follows, we describe new methods for investigating interdependent decision-making. Our experimental results show that people do not choose consistently, do not hold consistent beliefs, and do not in general align actions and beliefs. We will show that experimental choices are inconsistent in ways that prevent us from drawing general characterizations of an individual’s choices or beliefs or of the general population's choices and beliefs. A general behavioral game theory seems a distant and, at present, unfulfilled hope.

Asking about trauma: the experiences of psychological therapists in early intervention services

Research has indicated that child abuse and childhood trauma has a causal role in the development of psychotic symptoms. Early Intervention (EI) services have been developed to work with individuals during their first experience of psychosis. This study aimed to explore whether EI psychological therapists were asking about abuse and their experiences with regard to this, as it has been demonstrated that in general professionals are reluctant to ask. Seven in-depth interviews were carried out with EI therapists. The data were analysed using Grounded Theory. The emerging categories were (the core category) “personal model of psychosis”, “commitment”, “service culture” and “process of asking”. The issue of “why ask” about abuse was more pertinent than “how to ask” about abuse, to these EI psychological therapists. The professionals in this research had a psychological, formulation-driven, trauma-based model of psychosis. A theory was developed from the data that indicates that having the skills to ask about abuse is not enough without consistent and developed personal beliefs about psychosis, and a service culture which is also consistent and supportive.

The elusive reality of efficacy–performance cycles in basketball shooting: An analysis of players’ performance under invariant conditions

The current work questions the putative tendency for success to be self-promoting in a non-competitive practice setting. Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky's [(1985). The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences. Cognitive Psychology, 17, 295–314. doi:10.1016/0010-0285(85)90010-6] classic controlled shooting experiment in basketball is replicated and extended to include players' efficacy judgments before taking the shots, according to the conditions outlined by Bandura [(1997). Self-efficacy: The exercise of control. New York, NY: Freeman]. Fifty-eight basketball players participated in three experimental sessions. The results show that players' competency expectations reflected a consistent belief in the existence of past performance–performance cycles. However, even when asked directly about their subjective perceptions of success, the players' sense of efficacy did not predict hits or misses. It was also demonstrated that even under invariant conditions, where such correlations should be even higher according to Bandura's line of reasoning, the outcomes of successive shots were statistically independent, for both expert players and for novices. These findings provide additional support for Gilovich et al.'s seminal results and are rather challenging to Bandura's theory of self-efficacy.