Incoming Path Research Articles

Deprivation as a fundamental cause of morbidity and reduced life expectancy: an observational study using German statutory health insurance data.

Across all developed countries, there is a steep life expectancy gradient with respect to deprivation. This paper provides a theoretical underpinning for this gradient in line with the Grossman model, indicating that deprivation affects morbidity and, consequently, life expectancy in three ways: directly from deprivation to morbidity, and indirectly through lower income and a trade-off between investments in health and social status. Using rich German claims data covering 6.3 million insured people over four years, this paper illustrates that deprivation increases morbidity and reduces life expectancy. It was estimated that highly deprived individuals had approximately two more chronic diseases and a life expectancy reduced by 15years compared to the least deprived individuals. This mechanism of deprivation is identified as fundamental, as deprived people remain trapped in their social status, and this status results in health investment decisions that affect long-term morbidity. However, in the German setting, the income and investment paths of the effects of deprivation were of minor relevance due to the broad national coverage of its SHI system. The most important aspects of deprivation were direct effects on morbidity, which accumulate over the lifespan. In this respect, personal aspects, such as social status, were found to be three times more important than spatial aspects, such as area deprivation.

Human Resource Investment and Early-Stage Career Choice: Evaluating Work–Life Income Paths in 21st-Century Canada

Of necessity, people make many investment decisions regarding their human resource stock early in their life cycle, long before outcomes predicated upon those choices are realized. Different choices involve very different initial effort and financing outlays and issues arise as to how these alternative paths can be compared and evaluated. Here, techniques for the cardinal comparison of human resource contingent work–life-cycle income value profiles under alternative income valuation function assumptions are outlined and instruments for examining potential ambiguities in comparison developed. All are applied in an analysis of the impact of different levels of investment of human resources in 21st-century Canada. The results, with one notable exception (the choice for boys between a trade or a bachelor-level degree), indicate unambiguous life-cycle benefits to higher levels of human resource stock investment for both girls and boys. Within gender, best–worst relative magnitudes are increasing over time for both genders but more so for girls. Boys are enjoying a universal but diminishing premium over time, reflective of male–female income convergence.

Energy Consumption Structure and Influencing Factors of Farmers in China from the Perspective of Labor Transfer.

Under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, the transformation and upgrading of energy consumption structure is crucial to achieve sustainable environmental development. Based on the questionnaire data of 1080 farmers in Sichuan province in 2021, the IV-Probit model was used to explore the impact of labor from off-farm employment on farmers' energy consumption structure and its specific mechanism. The results show the following: (1) the overall proportion of off-farm employment is not high, only 23%; in cooking energy, the most farmers use high-quality energy, accounting for up to 94%; (2) in addition to high-quality energy, off-farm employment of labor force is positively and significantly correlated with the remaining six types of energy consumption structure. The results of a heterogeneity analysis show that the proportion of off-farm employment of farmers with a high education level and above has the greatest positive effect on the use of high-quality energy; (3) the results of the mediating effect show that the off-farm employment can affect the energy consumption structure of farmers through the two paths of annual cash income and population structure.

Network structural origin of instabilities in large complex systems.

A central issue in the study of large complex network systems, such as power grids, financial networks, and ecological systems, is to understand their response to dynamical perturbations. Recent studies recognize that many real networks show nonnormality and that nonnormality can give rise to reactivity—the capacity of a linearly stable system to amplify its response to perturbations, oftentimes exciting nonlinear instabilities. Here, we identify network structural properties underlying the pervasiveness of nonnormality and reactivity in real directed networks, which we establish using the most extensive dataset of such networks studied in this context to date. The identified properties are imbalances between incoming and outgoing network links and paths at each node. On the basis of this characterization, we develop a theory that quantitatively predicts nonnormality and reactivity and explains the observed pervasiveness. We suggest that these results can be used to design, upgrade, control, and manage networks to avoid or promote network instabilities.

Are preferences for work reference dependent or time nonseparable? New experimental evidence

Tests of labor supply models often rely on wages. However, wage variation alone generally cannot disentangle the classical time separable model and its extensions: reference dependent preferences (income targeting) and time nonseparable preferences (disutility spillovers; timing-specific preferences). We set up a novel laboratory experiment in which individuals choose their working time. We vary, independently, wages, historical income paths, and cumulative past work. We also vary the timing of experimental sessions. Statistical tests and stochastic revealed preference methods cannot reject the classical model in favor of income targeting or disutility spillovers, but the data suggest that labor supply varies by time-of-the-day.

Conceptualizing Rurality for Socio-Economic Development in Rural Areas of the Niger Delta Region in Nigeria

This study employed the use of case study in extensive review of secondary data and observation to critically examine the structural characteristics of rural areas in the Niger Delta with an insight for rural development. It is sufficiently obvious that there is a missing link to sustainable rural development in this region. The Niger Delta in Nigeria is not only endowed with crude oil or petroleum resources as conceived in many sections, but also has a rich rural life thatcan be explored for poverty alleviation and pedestal the rural areas on the path of income and livelihood security, and ultimately lead to sustainable development if the rural structures and characteristics are properly harnessed. Based on Nigeria’s criteria for rurality, which is a settlement with population less than 20,000, the area has over 13,329 rural settlements making it predominantly rural, and over 90% of the rural economy is dependent on agriculture which suffers various challenges such as lack of power supply, lack of modern technology, lack of processing or preservation facilities, vulnerability to flood and climatic instability and lack of access to capital amongst several others.

PARAMETRIC CONDITIONAL MEAN INFERENCE WITH FUNCTIONAL DATA APPLIED TO LIFETIME INCOME CURVES

AbstractWe propose a framework for estimation of the conditional mean function in a parametric model with function space covariates. The approach employs a functional mean squared error objective criterion. Under regularity conditions, consistency and asymptotic normality are established. The analysis extends to situations where the asymptotic properties are influenced by estimation errors arising from the presence of nuisance parameters. Wald, Lagrange multiplier, and quasi‐likelihood ratio statistics are studied. An empirical application conducts lifetime income path comparisons across different demographic groups according to years of work experience.

IMPACT OF DIFFERENT LIFE-CYCLE SAVING STRATEGIES AND UNEMPLOYMENT ON INDIVIDUAL SAVINGS IN DEFINED CONTRIBUTION PENSION SCHEME IN SLOVAKIA

Searching for the optimal saving strategy is often tied with the life-cycle strategies where only the age of a saver is considered for setting the allocation profile between equities and bonds. Our article contributes to the debate by looking at the performance and adequacy risks arising from applying age-based saving strategies for savers in funded pension schemes. As many studies have proven the shift of the risk onto savers in defined contribution pension schemes under various saving strategies, we contribute to the debate by providing simulations of expected accumulated savings via funded pension scheme under the various life-cycle income profiles and existence of unemployment risk. Using the resampling simulation technique, we compare the fixed and age-based strategies of three different agents with various life-cycle income paths and different unemployment risk. We compare the expected amount of savings and calculate relative indicators comparing the expected monthly benefits, income replacement rate. We look closely on the impact of unemployment on the value of savings and calculate the unemployment factor explaining the value of savings lost due to the periods of unemployment. By combining life-cycle income functions of individuals with different education level and unemployment risk, we show that decisions of implementing low risk saving strategies are suboptimal and lead to a substantial decrease in replacement ratios not only for higher income cohorts but especially for the lowest ones. At the same time, we prove that employing low risk saving strategy leads to the increase of adequacy risk especially driven by the unemployment risk that is higher for lower education individuals. We conclude that age-based life-cycle saving strategies, where the remaining saving horizon is the only factor defining the allocation profile is not the optimal saving strategy and other factors should be considered as well when searching for optimal saving strategy.

How Forest Subsidies Impact Household Income: The Case from China

(1) Background: It is of great significance to evaluate the impact of forestry subsidies on the income of forest farmers to improve policy and enhance efficiency. (2) Methods: Based on the static panel data of household tracking surveys from 2014 to 2018 in Sichuan, Liaoning, and Zhejiang provinces in China, the impacts of forestry subsidies on forest farmer income and impact paths were systematically verified via parameter estimation with the Fixed-Effect model. (3) Results: Forestry subsidies significantly increased forest farmer income. The impact paths could be summarized as follows: First, from the perspective of operating income, forestry subsidies effectively motivated forestry production and promoted the expenditure on forestry production, and thus increased forest farmer operating income. Second, from the perspective of wage income, forestry subsidy policies played a negative role in releasing the forest farmer labor force for off-farm employment. Third, from the perspective of transfer income as a kind of transferred governmental financial subsidy, forestry subsidies covered a large proportion of transfer income for forest farmers. (4) Conclusions: Forestry subsidies could directly increase the transfer income, effectively improve the forestry production capacity, and increase the income of forest farmers. However, forestry subsidies could also bind forest farmers to forestry production to a certain extent, which was not conducive to the liberation of the labor force.

Spatiotemporal contact density explains the disparity of COVID-19 spread in urban neighborhoods

The rapid early spread of COVID-19 in the US was experienced very differently by different socioeconomic groups and business industries. In this study, we study aggregate mobility patterns of New York City and Chicago to identify the relationship between the amount of interpersonal contact between people in urban neighborhoods and the disparity in the growth of positive cases among these groups. We introduce an aggregate spatiotemporal contact density index (CDI) to measure the strength of this interpersonal contact using mobility data collected from mobile phones, and combine it with social distancing metrics to show its effect on positive case growth. With the help of structural equations modeling, we find that the effect of CDI on case growth was consistently positive and that it remained consistently higher in lower-income neighborhoods, suggesting a causal path of income on case growth via CDI. Using the CDI, schools and restaurants are identified as high contact density industries, and the estimation suggests that implementing specific mobility restrictions on these point-of-interest categories is most effective. This analysis can be useful in providing insights for government officials targeting specific population groups and businesses to reduce infection spread as reopening efforts continue to expand across the nation.

A study about signal variation with minor receiver displacement in a meeting room at 60\xa0GHz: measurements and simulations

The aim of this work is to study the impact of small receiver displacement on a signal propagation in a typical conference room environment at a millimeter wave frequency of 60 GHz. While channel measurements provide insights on the propagation phenomena, their use for the wireless system performance evaluation is challenging. Whereas, carefully executed three-dimensional ray tracing (RT) simulations represent a more flexible option. Nevertheless, a careful validation of simulation methodology is needed. The first target of this article is to highlight the benefits of an in-house built three-dimensional RT tool at 60 GHz and shows the effectiveness of simulations in predicting different characteristics of the channel. To validate the simulation results against the measurements, two different transmitter (Tx) positions and antenna types along with ten receiver (Rx) positions are considered in a typical conference room. In first system configuration, an omnidirectional antenna is placed in the middle of the table, while in the second system configuration a directed horn antenna is located in the corner of the meeting room. After validating the simulation results with the measurement data, in the second part of this work, the impact of a small change, i.e., 20 cm in the receiver position, is studied. To characterize the impact, we apply as performance indicators the received power level, root mean square delay spread (RMS-DS) and RMS angular spread (RMS-AS) in azimuth plane. The channel characteristics are considered with respect to the direct orientation (DO), i.e., the Rx antenna is directed toward the strongest incoming path. Different antenna configurations at the Tx and Rx side are applied to highlight the role of antenna properties on the considered channel characteristics. Especially, in the second system configuration the impact of different antenna half power beamwidth on different considered channel characteristics is highlighted through acquired simulation results. The validation of results shows the RMS error of only 2–3 dB between the measured and simulated received power levels for different Tx configurations in the direction of DO. Results indicate that only a small change of the Rx position may result a large difference in the received power level even in the presence of line-of-sight between the Tx and Rx. It is found that the STD of received power level across the room increases with the decrease in HPBW of the antenna. As can be expected, directed antennas offer lower value of RMS-DS and RMS-AS compared with isotropic antenna.

Perceptions of the fairness of income distribution in Serbia: A comparative perspective

The paper examines perceptions of the fairness of income distribution in Serbia from a comparative perspective. The analysis is based on data collected under Round 9 of the European Social Survey in 2018/2019. Perceptions of the fairness of personal income in Serbia are compared with those from three post- Yugoslav countries (Montenegro, Croatia and Slovenia) and three developed capitalist countries (Germany, Sweden and the United Kingdom). The research findings indicate that the vast majority of Serbian citizens perceive their personal income (gross and net pay, pensions and social benefits) as being unfairly low. From a comparative perspective, it is noticeable that the perceived fairness of income distribution is influenced by a contextual variable that combines the effects of economic development, degree of income inequality and path dependency. Income from work (gross and net pay) is more often perceived as unfairly low in the post-Yugoslav countries of the Western Balkans (Serbia and Montenegro) than in the post-Yugoslav countries that are members of the European Union (Croatia and Slovenia). When it comes to perceptions of the fairness of pensions and social benefits, the two groups of the post-Yugoslav countries do not differ from each other. All types of income are more likely to be perceived as unfairly low in the Western Balkan states than in the developed capitalist countries.

Understanding the Drivers of Household Energy Spending: Micro Evidence for Latin America

The paper investigates the determinants of household energy spending and energy budget shares, with a focus on understanding their non-linear relationship with income, and the presence of economies of scale. The analysis is based on a unique, harmonized collection of official household surveys from 13 Latin American countries. This dataset allows distinguishing between expenditures on electricity, domestic gas, and fuel for private transportation, providing a comprehensive distributional view of the energy spending profile of the residential sector. The estimated empirical Engel curves behave similarly; however, the derived income elasticities show marked distinctions by fuel, and their actual values depend on the households’ relative position over the income distribution. For electricity, the elasticity tends to increase in income but stabilize at the wealthiest segments. For gas and transport fuel, it decreases under different income paths. In this dataset, the examination returns income elasticities on the (0,1) interval, suggesting that energy commodities are necessity goods. However, the distribution of aggregate energy expenditure needs to be considered. Specifically, there is a great concentration among the richer groups, particularly for transport fuels, where the top quintile gathers more than half of the aggregate spending. The results also indicate economies of scale ––for electricity and domestic gas–– with respect to family-age composition, and to a lesser extent with respect to dwelling size. In the case of electricity, these economies are more pronounced for richer households. These results join the previous literature in emphasizing the relevance of accounting for household demographic and socioeconomic trends for energy management.

A macroeconomic simulation for Greece in the wake of its government debt crisis

This paper simulates the macroeconomics of Greece following its 2009 government debt crisis that precipitated a 4-year depression with stagnant growth since. A model of aggregate supply and demand estimated with quarterly data from 2003 to 2018 is constrained to a balanced government budget, outside euro exchange rate, and exogenous international interest rate. Dynamic stochastic simulations starting in 2011 capture the effects of less erratic government spending, quicker transition to debit cards, and returning investment sentiment to the pre-crisis level. Simulations track the path of income along with the trade balance, tax revenue, price level, and equilibrium quantity of money.

Angular Dispersion of a Scattered Underground Wireless Channel at 60 GHz

The 60 GHz frequency band is identified as a suitable band for Gbps speed wireless communication in an Underground mine due to its high antenna directivity and high signal attenuation. However, the rough mine surface and the 5 mm wavelength may produce rich scattering phenomenon of multipath signals. To characterize the channel and more insight into the scattering, the angular dispersion measurements are conducted in different mine gallery depths and dimensions. The scattering is analyzed by the angle of arrivals of the incoming paths at the receiver, which is characterized by the statistical parameters of the multipath shape factors. The results of the multipath shape factor are explained and show that at around 3 m link distance, the incoming paths are mostly in two or three directions within a resolution angle of around between ±30° and ±40°. The statistical distribution of the multipath angle of arrivals follows a Gaussian probability distribution. The results also show that the angular spreads of multipath are proportional to the gallery dimensions and inversely proportional to the link distances.

Understanding the Drivers of Household Energy Spending: Micro Evidence for Latin America

The paper investigates the determinants of household energy spending and energy budget shares, with a focus on understanding their non-linear relationship with income, and the presence of economies of scale. The analysis is based on a unique, harmonized collection of official household surveys from 13 Latin American countries. This dataset allows distinguishing between expenditures on electricity, domestic gas, and fuel for private transportation, providing a comprehensive distributional view of the energy spending profile of the residential sector. The estimated empirical Engel curves behave similarly; however, the derived income elasticities show marked distinctions by fuel, and their actual values depend on the households’ relative position over the income distribution. For electricity, the elasticity tends to increase in income but stabilize at the wealthiest segments. For gas and transport fuel, it decreases under different income paths. In this dataset, the examination returns income elasticities on the (0,1) interval, suggesting that energy commodities are necessity goods. However, the distribution of aggregate energy expenditure needs to be considered. Specifically, there is a great concentration among the richer groups, particularly for transport fuels, where the top quintile gathers more than half of the aggregate spending. The results also indicate economies of scale ––for electricity and domestic gas–– with respect to family-age composition, and to a lesser extent with respect to dwelling size. In the case of electricity, these economies are more pronounced for richer households. These results join the previous literature in emphasizing the relevance of accounting for household demographic and socioeconomic trends for energy management.

Using the Power Delay Profile to Accelerate the Training of Neural Network-Based Classifiers for the Identification of LOS and NLOS UWB Propagation Conditions

ultra-wideband (UWB) technology enables centimeter-level localization systems based on the accurate estimation of the actual distance between transmitter and receiver, by means of the precise estimation of the signal time-of-flight. However, this is only possible when correctly detecting the first path of the incoming signal instead of a bounce or a reflection, which becomes challenging in non line-of-sight (NLOS) situations. There are many different approaches in the literature to alleviate the wrong detection of the first incoming UWB signal path. One of them considers machine learning techniques to design classifiers capable of distinguishing between line-of-sight (LOS) and NLOS propagation from available signal features. However, the performance and complexity of the obtained classifiers depend largely on the size of the input data associated to such features. Thus, features such as the channel impulse response (CIR) produce large amounts of data, yielding very complex classifiers. In this paper, we propose using a downsampled power delay profile (PDP) as an alternative feature consisting of input data much smaller than the CIR, although sufficiently representative, hence resulting in a lower computational cost while exhibiting a similar classification performance. Furthermore, another of the tasks addressed in this work is the study of the impact on the classification results of using a dataset for training where the samples of each class are not balanced from the point of view of energy. Finally, this work also studies how the classifiers based on the CIR or the PDP improve their performance when considering additional signal features such as the estimated range value or its energy level.

Houses as ATMs: Mortgage Refinancing and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

ABSTRACTMortgage refinancing activity associated with extraction of home equity contains a strongly countercyclical component consistent with household demand for liquidity. We estimate a structural model of liquidity management featuring countercyclical idiosyncratic labor income uncertainty, long‐ and short‐term mortgages, and realistic borrowing constraints. We empirically evaluate its predictions for households' choices of leverage, liquid assets, and mortgage refinancing using microlevel data. Taking the observed historical paths of house prices, aggregate income, and interest rates as given, the model accounts for many salient features in the evolution of balance sheets and consumption in the cross‐section of households over 2001 to 2012.

Health Literacy and Difference in Current Wealth Among Middle-Aged and Older Adults

Numerous studies suggest that health literacy improves health outcomes at older ages. But how, and to what extent, health literacy contributes to improving financial outcomes has not been examined. This study proposed a conceptual framework to explain the mechanisms between health literacy and current wealth. Data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) are used to estimate proposed direct and indirect effects between health literacy and current wealth. We found that, for the most part, health literacy is directly associated with wealth rather than indirectly through mediating variables. Alternatively, out of all indirect effects investigated in the model, health literacy affects wealth mainly through the path of chronic condition, work limitation, and income.

Life-Cycle Consumption Patterns at Older Ages in the United States and the United Kingdom: Can Medical Expenditures Explain the Difference?

This paper documents significantly steeper declines in nondurable expenditures at older ages in the United Kingdom compared to the United States, in spite of income paths being similar. Several possible causes are explored, including different employment paths, housing ownership and expenses, levels and paths of health status, number of household members, and out-of-pocket medical expenditures. Among all the potential explanations considered, those relating to levels and age paths in medical expenses and medical expenditure risk— can fully account for the steeper declines in nondurable consumption in the United Kingdom compared to the United States. (JEL D14, D15, I11, J14)