Incidence Rates Of Infectious Diseases Research Articles

Infectious disease prevention among internally displaced people: Perspectives from Lviv, Ukraine

Abstract Background The ongoing war in Ukraine has increased the risk of infection spikes, especially among internally displaced people. The healthcare challenges in the war context necessitate teaching the population of preventative measures, which have become the primary vector of the activities of the Ukrainian Regional Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Objectives The research aimed to highlight the activities of the Lviv Regional Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in relation to internally displaced people. Methods The research project analyzed the incidence rate of infectious diseases and vaccination coverage data among the population and internally displaced people in the region. The data were collected from monthly reports of CDC’s departments and alert messages sent by primary care institutions to the CDC. Results According to the Single register of internally displaced people (IDP), 13% of internally displaced people were permanently staying in the Lviv region (the second place was Zakarpattia region - 9% of IDP, and the third was Kyiv - 7% of IDP). In the Lviv region, 237,000 people registered as forcibly displaced. Total, over 700, 000 people are in the area, including the unregistered and 68,000 children. In 2022-2023, the morbidity rates among IDPs did not exceed the rates among the general population in the area. Each IDP residence place had its physician; 11 thousand IDPs were vaccinated, and 3,235 of those were children. In general, 46 mobile medical brigades worked on-site in the Lviv region. Only one spike of gastrointestinal infection was registered. CDC employees provided lectures and workshops on hygiene and food storage in 56 IDP residence places. Conclusions The review results show that coordination between CDCs, local physicians, and mobile medical brigades in the IDP residence areas prevents outbreaks of infectious diseases and swiftly responds to emerging threats. Key messages • The tragic events in Ukraine resulted in healthcare access issues. Lviv CDC, fighting at its own forefront, quickly assessed the risks and efficiently managed the potential hazards. • The Lviv region remains one of the biggest hubs in Ukraine for the temporary residence of internally displaced people, with CDC employees ensuring that preventive measures are effectively carried out.

The impact of population influx on infectious diseases - from the mediating effect of polluted air transmission.

The global population influx during the COVID-19 pandemic poses significant challenges to public health, making the prevention and control of infectious diseases a pressing concern. This paper aims to examine the impact of population influx on the spread of infectious diseases, with a specific emphasis on the mediating role of air pollution in this process. A theoretical analysis is conducted to explore the relationship between population influx, air pollution, and infectious diseases. Additionally, we establish a series of econometric models and employ various empirical tests and analytical techniques, including mediation effect test, threshold effect test, and systematic GMM test, to evaluate our hypotheses. The results indicate that: (1) Population influx directly and indirectly impacts infectious diseases. Specifically, population influx not only directly elevates the risk of infectious diseases, but also indirectly increases the incidence rate of infectious diseases by intensifying air pollution. (2) The impact of population inflow on infectious diseases exhibits regional heterogeneity. Compared to central and western China, the eastern regions exhibit a significantly higher risk of infectious diseases, exceeding the national average. (3) External factors influence the relationship between population influx and infectious diseases differently. Personal income and medical resources both help mitigate the risk of infectious diseases due to population influx, with medical resources having a more substantial effect. Contrary to expectations, abundant educational resources have not reduced the risk, instead, they have exacerbated the risk associated with population influx. This paper provides a scientific basis for formulating effective strategies for the prevention and control of infectious diseases.

Parents' Awareness of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology in Poland and Ukraine.

There has been a decline in vaccine-related confidence in Ukraine over the past few years, resulting in high rates of infectious diseases. Due to the arrival of a large number of refugees in Poland following the outbreak of war in Ukraine in February 2022, the risk of infectious diseases in Poland among children and adults has increased. The present study aimed to analyze the relationship between parents' knowledge of the epidemiological situation of infectious diseases in Poland and Ukraine and socio-demographic factors and their attitudes towards vaccination. A cross-sectional survey study was designed. Data were collected through an online questionnaire between November 2022 and January 2023, where the inclusion criteria was having a child under 18 years of age. Study participants' stratification was based on responses to seven knowledge questions; those who answered all questions correctly were allocated to group 1, and the others to group 2 for further analysis. A total of 547 parents were included. Their median age was 34 years [IQR: 31-39]. There were 233 (42.60%) participants who answered all the knowledge questions correctly. Respondents from group 1 were older (p = 0.033), were more likely to be in favor of recommended vaccination (p = 0.040), to be vaccinated with four doses against SARS-CoV-2 (p = 0.014), to have their children vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 (p < 0.001), and to believe that the influx of migrants from Ukraine would increase the incidence rate of infectious diseases in Poland in the future (p < 0.001). They also declared awareness of the impact of migration on the epidemiological situation in Poland (p < 0.001) more often. According to the logistic regression model, older parents (OR = 1.31, p = 0.029), those who were willing to receive additional vaccinations due to migration (OR = 4.29, p = 0.003), those who were aware of the impact of migration on the epidemiological situation (OR = 2.38, p < 0.001), and those who believed that migration would have affected the incidence rate of infectious diseases in Poland (OR = 2.28, p = 0.003) were significantly more likely to belong to group 1. However, parents who were willing to vaccinate their children with additional vaccinations due to migration were significantly less likely to answer all the questions correctly (OR = 0.21, p = 0.002). Awareness of the epidemiological situation in Poland and Ukraine among parents is related to a greater awareness of the impact of migration and the use of recommended vaccinations and those against SARS-CoV-2. Additional vaccinations should be further promoted among both Poles and migrants.

Deep evolutionary fusion neural network: a new prediction standard for infectious disease incidence rates

BackgroundPreviously, many methods have been used to predict the incidence trends of infectious diseases. There are numerous methods for predicting the incidence trends of infectious diseases, and they have exhibited varying degrees of success. However, there are a lack of prediction benchmarks that integrate linear and nonlinear methods and effectively use internet data. The aim of this paper is to develop a prediction model of the incidence rate of infectious diseases that integrates multiple methods and multisource data, realizing ground-breaking research.ResultsThe infectious disease dataset is from an official release and includes four national and three regional datasets. The Baidu index platform provides internet data. We choose a single model (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NAR), and long short-term memory (LSTM)) and a deep evolutionary fusion neural network (DEFNN). The DEFNN is built using the idea of neural evolution and fusion, and the DEFNN + is built using multisource data. We compare the model accuracy on reference group data and validate the model generalizability on external data. (1) The loss of SA-LSTM in the reference group dataset is 0.4919, which is significantly better than that of other single models. (2) The loss values of SA-LSTM on the national and regional external datasets are 0.9666, 1.2437, 0.2472, 0.7239, 1.4026, and 0.6868. (3) When multisource indices are added to the national dataset, the loss of the DEFNN + increases to 0.4212, 0.8218, 1.0331, and 0.8575.ConclusionsWe propose an SA-LSTM optimization model with good accuracy and generalizability based on the concept of multiple methods and multiple data fusion. DEFNN enriches and supplements infectious disease prediction methodologies, can serve as a new benchmark for future infectious disease predictions and provides a reference for the prediction of the incidence rates of various infectious diseases.

Interrupted time series analysis using the ARIMA model of the impact of COVID-19 on the incidence rate of notifiable communicable diseases in China

BackgroundThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in China is ongoing. Some studies have shown that the incidence of respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases in 2020 decreased significantly compared with previous years. Interrupted time series (ITS) is a time series analysis method that evaluates the impact of intervention measures on outcomes and can control the original regression trend of outcomes before and after the intervention. This study aimed to analyse the impact of COVID-19 on the incidence rate of notifiable communicable diseases using ITS in China.MethodsNational data on the incidence rate of communicable diseases in 2009–2021 were obtained from the National Health Commission website. Interrupted time series analysis using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models was used to analyse the changes in the incidence rate of infectious diseases before and after the COVID-19 epidemic.ResultsThere was a significant short-term decline in the incidence rates of respiratory infectious diseases and enteric infectious diseases (step values of -29.828 and − 8.237, respectively), which remained at a low level for a long time after the decline. There was a short-term decline in the incidence rates of blood-borne and sexually transmitted infectious diseases (step = -3.638), which tended to recover to previous levels in the long term (ramp = 0.172). There was no significant change in the incidence rate of natural focus diseases or arboviral diseases before and after the epidemic.ConclusionThe COVID-19 epidemic had strong short-term and long-term effects on respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases and short-term control effects on blood-borne and sexually transmitted infectious diseases. Our methods for the prevention and control of COVID-19 can be used for the prevention and control of other notifiable communicable diseases, especially respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases.

The impact of pandemic-related social distancing regulations on exercise performance-Objective data and training recommendations to mitigate losses in physical fitness.

In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany, governmental restrictions led to the closure of sports facilities for several months. To date, only subjective and fitness-tracking related data on physical activity during the pandemic are available. Using data of a chip-controlled fitness circuit, training data as a measure of physical performance before and after the lockdown during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic will show the impact of the training interruption on exercise performance in middle-aged and older adults. The re-training data are analyzed, to extract practical recommendations. Objective training data of 17,450 participants [11,097 middle-aged (45-64 yrs), 6,353 older (≥65 yrs)] were exported from chip-controlled milon® fitness circuit systems before and after the first COVID-19 related lockdown in Germany. The change in the product of training weight (sum of lifting and lowering the training weight) and repetitions on the leg extension resistance exercise device (leg score) between the last three training sessions before the lockdown and the first ten training sessions after individual training resumption as well as the last training session before the second lockdown in October 2020 was analyzed. Participants who trained with high intensity before the lockdown, experienced deleterious effects of the training interruption (middle-aged group: -218 kg, older group: ~-230.8 kg; p < 0.001 for change in leg score from to post-lockdown) with no age effect. Participants training with a leg score of more than 3,000 kg did not resume their leg score until the second lockdown. The interruption of training in a fitness circuit with combined resistance and endurance training due to the lockdown affected mainly those participants who trained at high intensity. Apparently, high-intensity training could not be compensated by home-based training or outdoor activities. Concepts for high-intensity resistance training during closure of sports facilities are needed to be prepared for future periods of high incidence rates of infectious diseases, while especially vulnerable people feel uncomfortable to visit sports facilities. Identifier, DRKS00022433.

Improving population health in Germany – lessons of a pilot study to assess health system performance

Abstract Background Improving the population health, both its level and equity, is a major goal of health systems. Health System Performance Assessment (HSPA) is a tool to evaluate the performance of different health system dimensions, e.g., population health, access, efficiency. For the first time, a systematic HSPA was piloted for Germany including the dimension population health. Methods The conceptual framework for the German HSPA pilot has been developed in a previous feasibility study. The selection of indicators was based on established indicators used in other HSPA initiatives. Another inclusion criterium was data availability. The ten indicators to measure population health cover e.g., maternal and neonatal health, amenable mortality, infectious diseases, and cancer screening. The indicators are evaluated in terms of their trend over time (2000-2020), in international comparison (e.g., Austria, Denmark, France), and by various equity criteria (e.g., age, gender, region). Results Overall, Germany's health system performs moderately regarding population health, especially when compared to selected European countries. While Germany performs very well in terms of incidence rates of infectious diseases, amenable mortality is an area with need for improvements. However, trends over time show improvements of the population health in Germany. Conclusions Measuring population health in Germany using ten predefined indicators reveals areas for improvement. Furthermore, subgroup analyses indicate inequities. These results should be considered in further efforts aiming at the improvement of population health in Germany. Key messages

Effect of breastfeeding on the development of infection-related diseases during hospitalization in late preterm infants in 25 hospitals in Beijing, China

OBJECTIVE To investigate the incidence rate of infectious diseases during hospitalization in late preterm infants in Beijing, China, as well as the risk factors for infectious diseases and the effect of breastfeeding on the development of infectious diseases. METHODS Related data were collected from the late preterm infants who were hospitalized in the neonatal wards of 25 hospitals in Beijing, China, from October 23, 2015 to October 30, 2017. According to the feeding pattern, they were divided into a breastfeeding group and a formula feeding group. The two groups were compared in terms of general status and incidence rate of infectious diseases. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the risk factors for infectious diseases. RESULTS A total of 1 576 late preterm infants were enrolled, with 153 infants in the breastfeeding group and 1 423 in the formula feeding group. Of all infants, 484 (30.71%) experienced infectious diseases. The breastfeeding group had a significantly lower incidence rate of infectious diseases than the formula feeding group (22.88% vs 31.55%, P=0.033). The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that breastfeeding was an independent protective factor against infectious diseases (OR=0.534, P=0.004), while male sex, premature rupture of membranes, gestational diabetes mellitus, and asphyxia were risk factors for infectious diseases (OR=1.328, 5.386, 1.535, and 2.353 respectively, P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS Breastfeeding can significantly reduce the incidence of infectious diseases and is a protective factor against infectious diseases in late preterm infants. Breastfeeding should therefore be actively promoted for late preterm infants during hospitalization.

Sanitary, Hygienic and Epidemiological Aspects of Recreational Water Use of the Population of the Upper Don River Basin

Introduction: The problem of safe recreational water use is closely related to conditions of surface water bodies (rivers, reservoirs, lakes, and ponds) experiencing a significant anthropogenic load and their water quality. The purpose of the study was to assess safety of recreational water use of the population based on the results of testing water quality in the bodies of water of the Upper Don River basin. Materials and methods: In 2015–2019, surface water samples were taken at 73 water quality checkpoints of 26 water bodies and tested for chemical, microbiological and parasitological indicators. Test results were then used to assess hazards related to recreational water use of the population. Results: It was found that in 26 of 73 surveyed recreation areas (35.6 %) water quality failed to meet recreational water quality criteria. Poor microbiological water quality indicators were established at 21 of 73 sites (26.7 %) with the proportion of water samples with high thermotolerant and total coliform counts varying from 1.5 to 75.0 %. Risks of epidemic hazard posed by recreational water use were assessed to be the highest in three recreation areas (4.1 %) and moderate – in 18 areas (24.7 %). Conclusions: The estimated reliability of differences in the long-term incidence rates of infectious diseases probably related to microbiological surface water quality indicators (by Student’s t-test) confirmed the hypothesized association between poor microbiological water quality parameters and high incidence rates of acute intestinal infections and bacillary (Flexner) dysentery (p &lt; 0.05). The findings demonstrate the necessity of implementing measures to ensure health and epidemic safety of recreational water use of the population.

Status of proposing infectious disease intervention measures in Yunnan and Guangxi

Objective Based on the degree value of proposing intervention measures, we analyze the improvement status of local interventions on infectious diseases in Yunnan and Guangxi provinces. Methods All related public information, documents or literature which were openly issued based on data of the infectious diseases surveillance system in the two provinces during 2004-2017 were searched and retrieved. One value designed by the team as“the degree value of proposing intervention measures (0 as the worst, 100% as the best) ”was used to analyze the improvement degree. The Spearman method was used to analyze the relationship between the above outcome and the incidence rate of infectious diseases. Results In Yunnan province, the degree value of proposing intervention measures got a rapid growth from 16.21% in 2004 to 47.12% in 2005, and then got a regular decrease until to 7.00% in 2017. In Guangxi province, the degree value of proposing intervention measures decreased from 23.99% in 2004 to 8.00% in 2017, with a small increase in 2012 and then changed slightly. In both of the two provinces, there were no relationship between the incidence rate of infectious diseases and the degree value of proposing intervention measures (Yunnan r =- 0.473, P =0.088>0.05; Guangxi r =- 0.198, P =0.517>0.05). Conclusion The improvement of interventions for infectious diseases needed to be kept or strengthened. 摘要： 目的 使用提出干预措施的程度值分析云南和广西对传染病采取干预措施的程度，以评价两地区传染病工 作应对措施的完善状况。 方法 收集 2004—2017 年云南和广西所有涉及传染病应对措施的公开信息和文献，采用提 出干预措施的程度评判完善程度(0 表示程度最差，100% 表示程度最好)。并运用 Spearman 相关分析探讨完善程度数 值与传染病发病率间的关系。 结果 云南提出干预措施的程度从 2004 年的 16.21% 快速增长到 2005 年的 47.12%，之 后持续下降到 2017 年的 7.00%；广西提出干预措施的程度从 2004 年的 23.99% 下降到 2017 年的 8.00%，其中 2012 年出 现较小幅的提升后趋于平缓。云南与广西提出措施的程度与传染病发病率之间无统计学相关(云南 r =-0.473， P =0.088 >0.05；广西 r =-0.198， P =0.517>0.05)。 结论 云南和广西应对传染病的干预措施需要继续保持或增强。

The epidemic of major sexually transmitted diseases in Shanghai, China, 2009-2018.

Acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), gonorrhea and syphilis are the major sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in the world, which are the focus of epidemic prevention and control in China. The epidemiological trend analysis of STDs in Shanghai could reflect the epidemic situation of these diseases in high-income areas of China, providing a reference for how to control their epidemic. Although the overall incidence rate of infectious diseases levelled off after 2009, Shanghai still faces many new obstacles in the fight against STDs. Without effective prevention and control strategies for high-risk behaviors, such as active sexual activity without protection, for key susceptible populations, there may be a more serious epidemic of STDs in the future. Given these situations, strategies for controlling STDs in Shanghai should be more targeted with the development of epidemics, focusing on the following key areas for future work: i) attaching importance to health education; ii) strengthening epidemic surveillance; and iii) developing Community Health Service Centers (CHSC) as intervention subjects.

Analysis of Epidemiological Characteristics of Notifiable Diseases Reported in Children Aged 0⁻14 Years from 2008 to 2017 in Zhejiang Province, China.

This study aims to learn the characteristics of morbidity and mortality of notifiable diseases reported in children aged 0–14 years in Zhejiang Province in 2008–2017. We collated data from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention in Zhejiang province between 1 January 2008 and 31 December 2017 of children aged 0–14 years. From 2008 to 2017, a total of 32 types and 1,994,740 cases of notifiable diseases were reported in children aged 0–14 years, including 266 deaths in Zhejiang Province. The annual average morbidity was 2502.87/100,000, and the annual average mortality was 0.33/100,000. Male morbidity was 2886.98/100,000, and female morbidity was 2072.16/100,000, with the male morbidity rate higher than the female morbidity rate (χ2 = 54,033.12, p < 0.01). No Class A infectious diseases were reported. The morbidity of Class B infectious diseases showed a downward trend, but that of Class C infectious diseases showed an upward trend. There were 72,041 cases in 22 kinds of Class B infectious disease and 138 death cases, with a morbidity rate of 90.39/100,000, and a mortality rate of 0.17/100,000. There were 1,922,699 cases in 10 kinds of Class C infectious disease and 128 death cases, with a morbidity rate of 2412.47/100,000, and a mortality rate of 0.16/100,000. The main high-prevalence diseases included hand-foot-and-mouth disease (1430.38/100,000), other infectious diarrheal diseases (721.40/100,000), mumps (168.83/100,000), and influenza (47.40/100,000). We should focus on the prevention and control of hand-foot and mouth disease, other infectious diarrheal diseases, mumps and influenza in children aged 0–14 years in Zhejiang Province. It is recommended to strengthen epidemic surveillance and undertake early prevention and control measures in order to reduce the younger children incidence rate of infectious diseases. Immunization planning vaccines can help achieve a significant preventive decline of infectious diseases.

Multivariate time series analysis on the dynamic relationship between Class B notifiable diseases and gross domestic product (GDP) in China.

The surveillance of infectious diseases is of great importance for disease control and prevention, and more attention should be paid to the Class B notifiable diseases in China. Meanwhile, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the annual growth of Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) would decelerate below 7% after many years of soaring. Under such circumstances, this study aimed to answer what will happen to the incidence rates of infectious diseases in China if Chinese GDP growth remained below 7% in the next five years. Firstly, time plots and cross-correlation matrices were presented to illustrate the characteristics of data. Then, the multivariate time series (MTS) models were proposed to explore the dynamic relationship between incidence rates and GDP. Three kinds of MTS models, i.e., vector auto-regressive (VAR) model for original series, VAR model for differenced series and error-correction model (ECM), were considered in this study. The rank of error-correction term was taken as an indicator for model selection. Finally, our results suggested that four kinds of infectious diseases (epidemic hemorrhagic fever, pertussis, scarlet fever and syphilis) might need attention in China because their incidence rates have increased since the year 2010.

Application of a novel grey self-memory coupling model to forecast the incidence rates of two notifiable diseases in China: dysentery and gonorrhea.

ObjectiveIn this study, a novel grey self-memory coupling model was developed to forecast the incidence rates of two notifiable infectious diseases (dysentery and gonorrhea); the effectiveness and applicability of this model was assessed based on its ability to predict the epidemiological trend of infectious diseases in China.MethodsThe linear model, the conventional GM(1,1) model and the GM(1,1) model with self-memory principle (SMGM(1,1) model) were used to predict the incidence rates of the two notifiable infectious diseases based on statistical incidence data. Both simulation accuracy and prediction accuracy were assessed to compare the predictive performances of the three models. The best-fit model was applied to predict future incidence rates.ResultsSimulation results show that the SMGM(1,1) model can take full advantage of the systematic multi-time historical data and possesses superior predictive performance compared with the linear model and the conventional GM(1,1) model. By applying the novel SMGM(1,1) model, we obtained the possible incidence rates of the two representative notifiable infectious diseases in China.ConclusionThe disadvantages of the conventional grey prediction model, such as sensitivity to initial value, can be overcome by the self-memory principle. The novel grey self-memory coupling model can predict the incidence rates of infectious diseases more accurately than the conventional model, and may provide useful references for making decisions involving infectious disease prevention and control.

Divorce and risk of hospital-diagnosed infectious diseases

Although, divorce is considered to have a negative impact on morbidity, very little is known concerning exposure to divorce and risk of infectious diseases. We aimed to investigate the association between divorce and subsequent hospital contacts with infectious diseases. We performed a nation-wide cohort study, including all Danish men and women (n≈5.6 million) alive on the 1 January 1982 or later, and followed them for infectious disease diagnosed in hospital settings from 1982 to 2010. The association between divorce and risk of infectious diseases was evaluated through rate ratios (RRs) comparing incidence rates of infectious diseases between divorced and married pesons. Compared with married persons, divorced persons were overall at a 1.48 fold (RR=1.48 (95% CI: 1.47-1.50)) increased risk of hospital-diagnosed infectious diseases (RR adjusted for sex, age, period, income and education). The risk of infectious diseases was slightly more pronounced for divorced women (RR=1.54 (1.52-1.56)) than divorced men ((RR=1.42 (1.41-1.44)). The increased risk remained almost unchanged even more than 15 years after the divorce. Young age at divorce, short duration of marriage and number of divorces further increased the risk of infectious diseases, whereas number of children at time of divorce had no impact on risk of hospital-diagnosed infectious diseases following the divorce. Divorce appears to have a moderate but long lasting impact on the risk of infectious diseases the underlying mechanism is unknown but shared risk factors predicting divorce and infectious diseases could contribute to our findings.

Frequency of Infectious Diseases in Immigrants in a Western European Country: A Population-Based Study

The aim of this population-based study was to assess the incidence rates of infectious diseases in native- (Italian) and foreign-born (immigrants) populations in a North Italy area, in 2006-2010. Crude, age-specific incidence rates (IRs) and age-standardised rate ratios (SRRs) between foreign- and native-born subjects and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated. A total of 32,554 cases of infectious diseases were found (9.9% in foreign-born subjects). The highest SRRs between foreign- and nativeborn subjects were found for tuberculosis (SRR = 27.1; 95% CI 21.3-34.3), malaria (SRR = 21.1; 14.6-30.4), scabies (SRR = 8.5; 7.6-9.4), AIDS (SRR = 2.5; 1.8-3.4) and viral hepatitis B (SRR = 3.3; 2.1-5.2). The highest IR was found for AIDS in people from the Americas (IR = 4.57; 95% CI 2.2-8.4), for malaria and tuberculosis in people from Africa (IR = 13.89; 11.6-16.5 and IR = 11.87; 9.8-14.3 respectively). Therefore immigrants are at a higher risk of acquiring some common infectious diseases compared to the native population in Western European countries.

A method for estimating incidence rate of infectious diseases among first-time blood donors

A method for estimating incidence rate of infectious diseases among first-time blood donors

A method for estimating incidence rate of infectious diseases among first‐time blood donors

In certain circumstances, there is no method for estimating incidence based on testing results on a single blood sample from first-time blood donors, severely limiting the ability to assess the residual risk of blood-borne infections among this donor subpopulation. Incidence rates were estimated for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) among first-time donors using the formula (P(2) - P(1))/D, where P(1) is the prevalence among blood donations from first-time donors of the minimum eligible ages for donation, P(2) is the prevalence among donations from first-time donors of an older age group, and D is the age difference (in years) between the older and younger donor groups. Estimating incidence among first-time donors using the proposed method based on a single test for anti-HCV produced similar results to those based on HCV nucleic acid test (NAT) yield cases, by sex and in different periods. Comparison of the proposed method with HIV NAT yield also showed similar results although the small number of HIV NAT yield cases limits interpretation. The proposed method provides an alternative way for estimating incidence of certain blood-borne infections among first-time donors, provided that our assumptions are met. It helps residual risk assessment in donor populations where first-time donors account for most of the donations and only one test result is available for each donor.

Host resistance to infectious disease: immunogenetics of Marek’s disease in chickens.

Abstract It has been known for centuries that in epidemics of infectious diseases, some species, strains, families, and individuals are more resistant or susceptible than others. Since these early observations, the role of the inherent parameters in determining an individual's relative resistance to infectious diseases has been speculated upon. In the past few decades, with improvements in prevention, diagnosis and treatment of disease, as well as successful national and international eradication programmes, the incidence rate of infectious diseases in human and domestic animal populations has dropped drastically. However, the process of controlling infectious diseases remains hampered by the cost of eradication programmes, the need for an intimate collaboration between national and international organizations, lack of knowledge regarding the genetic interplay between the host and parasite, constant evolution of parasites and the risk of resurgence of old pathogens or even those presumed to be eradicated. In the case of domestic animals, genetically based approaches for enhancement of disease resistance may provide a complementary or an alternative approach to the currently available strategies for control of disease, such as vaccination and the use of antimicrobials. This review describes the current status of research in the area of genetic regulation of host response and disease resistance in domestic animals. Various approaches for dissecting out genetics of host response and disease resistance, including phenotypic selection, genetic markers, candidate genes and gene expression profiling will be discussed. Finally, genetics of resistance and susceptibility to Marek's disease in chickens will be explored in detail.

Annual incidence rate of infectious diseases estimated from sentinel surveillance data in Japan.

The estimation of incidence rates of infectious diseases based on the sentinel surveillance data is rather rare. We attempted to estimate these in 2000 in Japan by the surveillance data, and to evaluate their biases. We used the incidences of influenza-like illness and 12 pediatric diseases in each of the sentinel medical institutions in Japan based on surveillance data in 2000. The incidence in all medical institutions was estimated under the assumption that the sentinel medical institutions were randomly selected. The possible bias of this estimate was evaluated in comparison with the hypothetical true incidence obtained as the total incidence in all medical institutions estimated by a regression model using the numbers of all disease outpatients per day from the National Survey of Medical Care Institutions of Japan. The estimated annual incidence rate was 75.6 (95% confidence interval: 72.3-78.7) per 1,000 population in influenza-like illness, and ranged from 1.1 (95% confidence interval: 1.0-1.2) to 285.2 (95% confidence interval: 270.2-300.3) per 1,000 population aged 0-19 years among 12 pediatric diseases. The ratio of the estimated incidence to the hypothetical true one was 1.06-1.26 among influenza-like illness and the 12 pediatric diseases. The incidence rates of influenza-like illness and pediatric diseases in 2000 in Japan were estimated from sentinel surveillance data. The rates obtained provide some useful but not always accurate information. Thus, further research is necessary.