Abstract
ObjectiveIn this study, a novel grey self-memory coupling model was developed to forecast the incidence rates of two notifiable infectious diseases (dysentery and gonorrhea); the effectiveness and applicability of this model was assessed based on its ability to predict the epidemiological trend of infectious diseases in China.MethodsThe linear model, the conventional GM(1,1) model and the GM(1,1) model with self-memory principle (SMGM(1,1) model) were used to predict the incidence rates of the two notifiable infectious diseases based on statistical incidence data. Both simulation accuracy and prediction accuracy were assessed to compare the predictive performances of the three models. The best-fit model was applied to predict future incidence rates.ResultsSimulation results show that the SMGM(1,1) model can take full advantage of the systematic multi-time historical data and possesses superior predictive performance compared with the linear model and the conventional GM(1,1) model. By applying the novel SMGM(1,1) model, we obtained the possible incidence rates of the two representative notifiable infectious diseases in China.ConclusionThe disadvantages of the conventional grey prediction model, such as sensitivity to initial value, can be overcome by the self-memory principle. The novel grey self-memory coupling model can predict the incidence rates of infectious diseases more accurately than the conventional model, and may provide useful references for making decisions involving infectious disease prevention and control.
Highlights
Prevention and control of infectious diseases is an increasingly important public health issue
Many acute or chronic infectious diseases have been effectively controlled by the use of antibiotics and vaccines [1, 2]
We propose that the grey self-memory coupling prediction model is appropriate for forecasting the incidence rates of infectious diseases in China
Summary
Prevention and control of infectious diseases is an increasingly important public health issue. After World War II, developments in preventive medicine, clinical medicine, and preclinical medicine have served major roles in preventing and controlling infectious diseases. The chronicity, arduousness, and complexity of infectious disease prevention and control are often ignored, which has resulted in the emergence of new pathogens with changes in the environment and the expansion of domestic and international communication [3, 4]. Strategies to prevent and control infectious diseases are urgent in developing countries with a weak economy, poor sanitary condition, large population density, and significant international and domestic population movement [6, 7]. Early warning and forecast of infectious diseases is important for health care and public hygiene management
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