In-hospital Mortality In Elderly Patients Research Articles

Twenty-eight-day in-hospital mortality prediction for elderly patients with ischemic stroke in the intensive care unit: Interpretable machine learning models.

Risk stratification of elderly patients with ischemic stroke (IS) who are admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) remains a challenging task. This study aims to establish and validate predictive models that are based on novel machine learning (ML) algorithms for 28-day in-hospital mortality in elderly patients with IS who were admitted to the ICU. Data of elderly patients with IS were extracted from the electronic intensive care unit (eICU) Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD) records of those elderly patients admitted between 2014 and 2015. All selected participants were randomly divided into two sets: a training set and a validation set in the ratio of 8:2. ML algorithms, such as Naïve Bayes (NB), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (xgboost), and logistic regression (LR), were applied for model construction utilizing 10-fold cross-validation. The performance of models was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis and accuracy. The present study uses interpretable ML methods to provide insight into the model's prediction and outcome using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. As regards the population demographics and clinical characteristics, the analysis in the present study included 1,236 elderly patients with IS in the ICU, of whom 164 (13.3%) died during hospitalization. As regards feature selection, a total of eight features were selected for model construction. In the training set, both the xgboost and NB models showed specificity values of 0.989 and 0.767, respectively. In the internal validation set, the xgboost model identified patients who died with an AUC value of 0.733 better than the LR model which identified patients who died with an AUC value of 0.627 or the NB model 0.672. The xgboost model shows the best predictive performance that predicts mortality in elderly patients with IS in the ICU. By making the ML model explainable, physicians would be able to understand better the reasoning behind the outcome.

In-hospital mortality and cardiovascular treatment during hospitalization for heart failure among patients with schizophrenia: a nationwide cohort study.

Schizophrenia is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, and patients with schizophrenia are more likely to receive suboptimal care for CVD. However, there is limited knowledge regarding in-hospital prognosis and quality of care for patients with schizophrenia hospitalized for heart failure (HF). This study sought to elucidate the association between schizophrenia and in-hospital mortality, as well as cardiovascular treatment in patients hospitalized with HF. Using the nationwide cardiovascular registry data in Japan, a total of 704,193 patients hospitalized with HF from 2012 to 2019 were included and stratified by age: young age, > 18 to 45years (n=20,289); middle age, >45 to 65years (n=114,947); and old age, >65 to 85years (n=568,957). All and 30-day in-hospital mortality as well as prescription of cardiovascular medications were assessed. After multiple imputation for missing values, mixed-effect multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed using patient and hospital characteristics with hospital identifier as a variable with random effects. Patients with schizophrenia were more likely to experience prolonged hospital stays, and incur higher hospitalization costs. In-hospital mortality for non-elderly patients with schizophrenia was significantly worse than for those without schizophrenia: the mortality rate was 7.6% vs 3.5% and the adjusted odds ratio (OR) was 1.96 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.24-3.10, P=0.0037) in young adult patients; 6.2% vs 4.0% and 1.49 (95% CI: 1.17-1.88, P<0.001) in middle-aged patients. Thirty-day in-hospital mortality was significantly worse in middle-aged patients: the mortality rate was 4.7% vs 3.0% and an adjusted OR was 1.40 (95% CI: 1.07-1.83, P=0.012). In-hospital mortality in elderly patients did not differ between those with and without schizophrenia. Prescriptions of beta-blockers and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor blockers were significantly lower in patients with schizophrenia across all age groups. Schizophrenia was identified as a risk factor for in-hospital mortality and reduced prescription of cardioprotective medications in non-elderly patients hospitalized with HF. These findings highlight the necessity for differentiated care and management of HF in patients with severe mental illnesses.

Gastrectomy for cancer beyond life expectancy. A comprehensive analysis of oncological gastric surgery in Germany between 2008 and 2018.

Major gastric surgery for distal esophageal and gastric cancer has a strong impact on the quality of life, morbidity, and mortality. Especially in elderly patients reaching their life expectancy, the responsible use and extent of gastrectomy are imperative to achieve a balance between harm and benefit. In the present study, the reimbursement database (German Diagnosis Related Groups (G-DRG) database) of the Statistical Office of the Federal Republic of Germany was queried to evaluate the morbidity and mortality of patients aged above or below 75 years following gastrectomy. All patients in Germany undergoing subtotal gastrectomy (ST), total gastrectomy (T), or gastrectomy combined with esophagectomy (TE) for gastric or distal esophageal cancer (International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems Version 10 (ICD-10) C15.2, C15.5, and C16.0-C16.9) between 2008 and 2018 were included. Intraoperative and postoperative complications as well as comorbidities, in-hospital mortality, and the extent of surgery were assessed by evaluating ICD-10 and operation and procedure key (Operationen- und Prozedurenschlüssel) codes. A total of 67,389 patients underwent oncologic gastric resection in Germany between 2008 and 2018. In total, 21,794 patients received ST, 41,825 received T, and 3,466 received TE, respectively. In 304 cases, the combinations of these, in fact, mutually exclusive procedures were encoded. The proportion of patients aged 75 years or older was 51.4% (n = 11,207) for ST, 32.6% (n = 13,617) for T, and 28.1% (n = 973) for TE. The in-hospital mortality of elderly patients was significantly increased in all three groups. (p < 0.0001) General complications such as respiratory failure (p = 0.0054), acute renal failure (p < 0.0001), acute myocardial failure (p < 0.0001), and the need for resuscitation (ST/T: p < 0.0001/TE: p = 0.0218) were significantly increased after any kind of gastrectomy. Roux-en Y was the most commonly applied reconstruction technique in both young and elderly patients. Regarding lymphadenectomy, systematic D2 dissection was performed less frequently in older patients than in the younger collective in the case of ST and T as well as D3 dissection. Peritonectomy and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy were uncommon in elderly patients alongside ST and T compared to younger patients (p < 0.0001). The clinical outcome of major oncological gastric surgery is highly dependent on a patient's age. The elderly show a tremendously increased likelihood of in-hospital mortality and morbidity.

Development and deployment of interpretable machine-learning model for predicting in-hospital mortality in elderly patients with acute kidney disease

Background Acute kidney injury (AKI) is more likely to develop in the elderly admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). Acute kidney disease (AKD) affects ∼45% of patients with AKI and increases short-term mortality. However, there are no studies on the prognosis of AKD in the elderly. Methods Data from 2666 elderly patients with AKD in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV were used for model development and 535 in the eICU Collaborative Research Database for external validation. Based on 5 machine learning algorithms, 33 noninvasive parameters were extracted as features for modeling. Results In-hospital mortality of AKD in the elderly was 29.6% and 31.8% in development and validation cohorts, respectively. The comprehensive best-performing algorithm was the support vector machine (SVM), and a simplified online application included only 10 features employing SVM (AUC: 0.810 and 0.776 in the training and external validation cohorts, respectively) was deployed. Model interpretation by SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values revealed that the difference (AKD day – ICU day) in sequential organ failure assessment (delta SOFA), Glasgow coma scale (GCS), delta GCS, delta peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2), and SOFA were the top five features associated with prognosis. The optimal target was determined by SHAP values from partial dependence plots. Conclusions A web-based tool was externally validated and deployed to predict the early prognosis of AKD in the elderly based on readily available noninvasive parameters, assisting clinicians in intervening with precision and purpose to save lives to the greatest extent.

Heart failure and in-hospital mortality in elderly patients after elective noncardiac surgery in Spain

BackgroundPatients with heart failure (HF) undergoing noncardiac surgical procedures is rising worldwide. This study was aiming at analyzing the impact of heart failure (HF) on the outcomes (mortality, complications, readmissions, and length of stay) of elderly patients undergoing elective major noncardiac surgical procedures in Spain. MethodsA retrospective observational study of patients undergoing noncardiac surgery was conducted. The Minimum Basic Data Set (MBDS) was used to collect information about the demographic characteristics of patients discharged from hospitals of the Spanish National Health System (SNHS), variables related to patients’ medical conditions and surgeries conducted during the episode. ResultsA total of 996,986 selected procedures in the discharge record were identified in the period 2007–2015. HF was recorded as a secondary diagnosis in 22,367 discharges (2.24%). The mean age of patients was 76.6±7.27 years, with a difference in patients without and with HF: 76.5 (95% CI: 76.47–76.50) vs 82.8 (95% CI: 82.71–82.90). The number of selected surgical procedures increased by 13.2% (117,487 in 2015 vs. 103,744 in 2007), and the proportion of presence HF as a comorbidity increased by 24.4% (2.4% in 2015 v 1.9% in 2007). The proportion of women was higher in the HF group: 53.2% (95% CI: 53.18–53.22) vs 64.3% (95% CI: 64.20–64.44), with a longer average length of stay: 7.9 (95% CI: 7.9–7.9) vs 14.9 (95% CI 14.7–15.0) days, and women had a higher proportion of comorbidities. HF was found to be an independent risk factor in-hospital mortality in the multilevel risk adjustment model (OR=2.3; 95% CI: 2.2–2.4). ConclusionsPatients with HF undergoing any of the selected surgical procedures are older; there was women predominance and there is also an important burden of comorbidities than patients without HF undergoing these surgical procedures. HF in the selected procedures, increasing in-hospital mortality, mean length of stay, and the occurrence of adverse events in the Spanish population. The percentage of patients with HF who underwent the selected surgical procedures increased in the study period.

Incidence and interaction factors of delirium as an independent risk of mortality in elderly patients in the intensive units: a retrospective analysis from MIMIC-IV database.

As delirium is a common problem in critcal elderly patients, the aim of the study was to investigate the interaction factors of delirium as an independent risk of mortality in elderly patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). Elderly patients (age ≥ 65) were selected from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV database. Demographics data were collected on the 1st day of admission to ICU. The main outcome is in-hospital mortality. Propensity score matching analysis (PSMA) was used to remove the influence of comfounding factors between survival and nonsurvival groups. Chi-square test and logistic regression analysis was used to identify the association between delirium and in-hospital death. Stratified analysis and interaction analysis was used to evaluate the interaction factors of delirium as a risk of in-hospital mortality. 22,361 patients were selected, and in which 2809 patients died. 5453 patients had delirium (about 24.4%). There is a significant difference in delirium between the survival and nonsurvival groups before and after PSMA(p = 0.000 and p = 0.030). Logistic regression showed delirium, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), and hemoglobin were all significantly related to in-hospital death (p = 0.000). SOFA score and hemoglobin concentration were proved to be remarkable interaction factors of delirium (p = 0.000, and p = 0.041). Significant correlation between delirium and hospital mortality was inhibited when SOFA was more than 12 or hemoglobin was higher than 15g/dL. In-hospital mortality (49.1% vs. 10.5%, p = 0.000) and shock incidence (87.9% vs. 15.8%, p = 0.000) of the patients with SOFA ≥ 12 was much higher than that of the patients with SOFA ≤ 11. SOFA and hemoglobin are interaction factors of delirium as an independent risk of in-hospital mortality in elderly patients in the intensive care unit.

In-hospital mortality prediction using frailty scale and severity score in elderly patients with severe COVID-19.

BackgroundElderly patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have a high disease severity and mortality. However, the use of the frailty scale and severity score to predict in-hospital mortality in the elderly is not well established. Therefore, in this study, we investigated the use of these scores in COVID-19 cases in the elderly.MethodsThis multicenter retrospective study included severe COVID-19 patients admitted to seven hospitals in Korea from February 2020 to February 2021. We evaluated patients’ Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score; confusion, urea nitrogen, respiratory rate, blood pressure, 65 years of age and older (CURB-65) score; modified early warning score (MEWS); Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score; clinical frailty scale (CFS) score; and Charlson comorbidity index (CCI). We evaluated the predictive value using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.ResultsThe study included 318 elderly patients with severe COVID-19 of whom 237 (74.5%) were survivors and 81 (25.5%) were non-survivors. The non-survivor group was older and had more comorbidities than the survivor group. The CFS, CCI, APACHE II, SOFA, CURB-65, and MEWS scores were higher in the non-survivor group than in the survivor group. When analyzed using the ROC curve, SOFA score showed the best performance in predicting the prognosis of elderly patients (area under the curve=0.766, P<0.001). CFS and SOFA scores were associated with in-hospital mortality in the multivariate analysis.ConclusionsThe SOFA score is an efficient tool for assessing in-hospital mortality in elderly patients with severe COVID-19.

Clinical Characteristics and Predictors of Mortality in Elderly Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19 in Bangladesh: A Multicenter, Retrospective Study.

Purpose Elderly patients are at high risk of fatality from COVID-19. The present work aims to describe the clinical characteristics of elderly inpatients with COVID-19 and identify the predictors of in-hospital mortality at admission. Materials and Methods In this retrospective, multicenter cohort study, we included elderly COVID-19 inpatients (n = 245) from four hospitals in Sylhet, Bangladesh, who had been discharged between October 2020 and February 2021. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were extracted from hospital records and compared between survivors and nonsurvivors. We used univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis to explore the risk factors associated with in-hospital death. Principal Results. Of the included patients, 202 (82.44%) were discharged and 43 (17.55%) died in hospital. Except hypertension, other comorbidities like diabetes, chronic kidney disease, ischemic heart disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were more prevalent in nonsurvivors. Nonsurvivors had a higher prevalence of leukocytosis (51.2 versus 30.7; p=0.01), lymphopenia (72.1 versus 55; p=0.05), and thrombocytopenia (20.9 versus 9.9; p=0.07). Multivariable regression analysis showed an increasing odds ratio of in-hospital death associated with older age (odds ratio 1.05, 95% CI 1.01–1.10, per year increase; p=0.009), thrombocytopenia (OR = 3.56; 95% CI 1.22–10.33, p=0.019), and admission SpO2 (OR 0.91, 95% CI 0.88–0.95; p=0.001). Conclusions Higher age, thrombocytopenia, and lower initial level of SpO2 at admission are predictors of in-hospital mortality in elderly patients with COVID-19.

Outcomes of emergency laparoscopy in the elderly.

This paper assessed the association between operative approach and postoperative in-hospital mortality in elderly patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery. Patients undergoing emergency laparotomy have high morbidity and mortality rates. One-third of patients requiring emergency surgery are over 75 years old, and their in-hospital mortality rate exceeds 17%. Fewer than 20% of emergency abdominal operations in the UK are attempted laparoscopically, and only 10% are completed laparoscopically. Little is known about how laparoscopic emergency surgery in the elderly might affect outcomes. An observational UK study was performed using the prospectively maintained National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) database. Operative approach, NELA risk-prediction score and in-hospital mortality were recorded. The effect of operative approach on in-hospital mortality was analysed, both on a national basis and in a high-volume laparoscopic centre. A total of 47,667 patients were included in the study, of whom 15,068 were over 75 years of age. Nationally, surgery was completed by the laparoscopic approach in 7.8% of patients aged over 75; both crude mortality (9.2%) and risk-adjusted mortality (7.1%) were significantly reduced (p<0.0001). In our unit, surgery was completed laparoscopically in 48.4% of patients aged over 75; both crude mortality (6.6%) and risk-adjusted mortality (3.3%) were significantly reduced (p<0.0001). Laparoscopy in emergency surgery has been shown in this study to significantly reduce in-hospital mortality in elderly patients and should be embraced in every centre dealing with emergency abdominal surgery.

Methicillin‐resistant Staphylococcus aureus among elderly patients with community-acquired pneumonia

IntroductionThe 2019 American Thoracic Society/Infectious Diseases Society of America guidelines for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) recommend methicillin‐resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) coverage for patients with prior sputum isolation of MRSA. This study aimed to determine the impact of MRSA coverage on in-hospital mortality in elderly patients with CAP among whom MRSA was isolated. MethodsConsecutive elderly patients who were admitted for CAP and had positive sputum culture for MRSA were retrospectively included, and the association between MRSA coverage and in-hospital mortality was analyzed. ResultsTwenty (18%) of 111 patients received MRSA coverage. Although patients who received MRSA coverage tended to have more frequent prior isolation of MRSA compared to those who did not, no significant difference in in-hospital mortality was observed between both groups (2/20, 10% vs. 8/91, 9%). MRSA coverage was not associated with in-hospital mortality (odds ratio: 1.15; 95% CI: 0.23–5.89, p = 0.864); however, advanced age, hemoglobin level, a high A-DROP score, and C-reactive protein levels were associated with in-hospital mortality. MRSA coverage may not improve the prognosis of elderly patients with CAP who had positive sputum culture for MRSA. ConclusionsA randomized control study is required to determine the efficacy of MRSA coverage on the management of CAP in elderly patients.

Association between sputum conversion and in-hospital mortality in elderly patients with pulmonary tuberculosis: a retrospective study

BackgroundNon-conversion of sputum culture or smear within 2 months after the start of treatment is a known poor prognostic factor of pulmonary tuberculosis. In elderly patients, sputum conversion may be delayed because of the age-related decline in immune competence. This study aimed to assess how a long interval to sputum conversion predicts in-hospital mortality in elderly patients with pulmonary tuberculosis.MethodsConsecutive elderly patients (age > 65 years) who were admitted to our institution for bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis were included. The association between sputum conversion within 30, 60, 90, or 120 days from the start of treatment and in-hospital mortality were analyzed by Cox proportional-hazards regression after adjustment for other potential variables.ResultsThis study included 262 patients, and 74 patients (28%) died during hospitalization. Multivariate analyses showed that sputum non-conversion within 90 days (adjusted hazard ratio 0.424, 95% CI 0.252–0.712, p = 0.001) or 120 days (0.333, 0.195–0.570, p < 0.001) was independently associated with in-hospital mortality, whereas that within 60 days was not (p = 0.890).ConclusionsIn elderly patients with tuberculosis, 2 months may be insufficient when evaluating sputum conversion as a prognostic factor. Sputum non-conversion within 90 days or longer may predict in-hospital mortality more accurately.

ST yükselmesiz miyokard enfarktüslü yaşlı hastalarda hastane içi mortaliteyi öngörmek için yüksek duyarlı modifiye Glasgow prognostik skoru

Aim: Inflammation and malnutrition are poor prognostic markers in acute coronary syndromes. In this study, we aimed to investigate the association between high sensitive modified Glasgow prognostic score (HS-mGPS), derived from C-reactive protein and serum albumin levels, and in-hospital mortality of elderly patients with non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI).&#x0D; Material and Methods: Included subjects were recruited from three different tertiary health centers. Totally, 282 eligible patients aged &gt;65 years with diagnosis of NSTEMI were retrospectively enrolled. Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score for in-hospital mortality and HS-mGPS was calculated for each patient. Subjects were categorized according to their inflammation-based scores ((high HS-mGPS group (HS-mGPS ≥1, n=124) vs. low HS-mGPS group (HS-mGPS =0, n=158)). &#x0D; Results: Both groups were similar regarding admission blood pressure levels, coronary angiography findings, treatment modalities and GRACE scores. Patients with high HS-mGPS had higher admission heart rate and longer hospitalization duration compared to low HS-mGPS group. In-hospital mortality rates were higher in high HS-mGPS group compared to low HS-mGPS group (21.8% (n=27) vs. 3.2% (n=5), respectively, P

14 Prognostic Factors for In-hospital Mortality of Geriatric Burns from the US National Inpatient Sample 2016-2018

IntroductionOlder adults experience a disproportionately higher rate of hospitalization and mortality due to burns. However, national estimates of in-hospital mortality in geriatric patients with acute burns outside of the recognized burn centers are lacking. The purpose of this study is to characterize such national estimates and identify the prognostic factors associated with in-hospital mortality in elderly patients with acute burn injuries.MethodsPatients ≥50 years with an acute burn diagnosis in the United States National Inpatient Sample from 2016 to 2018 were identified by using International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification codes (T20.0-T31; initial encounters only). Trend weights were used from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality to generate national estimates. Factors associated with in-hospital mortality were evaluated by multivariable logistic regression.ResultsA total of 60,515 weighted discharges met inclusion criteria. For age groups 50-64 (reference category), 65-74, 75-84, and ≥85, the numbers of discharges were 33,100, 15,295, 7,880, and 4,240, respectively; the in-hospital mortality rates were 3.3%, 5.3%, 6.6%, and 9.9%, respectively. The full list of significant variables of the multivariable regression can be seen in Table 1. Specifically, variables associated with increased in-hospital mortality include age 75-84 (odds ratio [OR], 3.91; p< 0.001), age ≥85 years (OR, 11.94; p< 0.001), total body surface area (%TBSA) 10-19% (OR, 2.93; p=0.017), and %TBSA ≥20% (OR, 27.78; p< 0.001). Intentional burns were associated with an increased risk of mortality (OR, 7.86; p=0.005), whereas hot liquids and vapor burns were associated with a decreased risk of mortality (OR, 0.33; p=0.043). Respiratory distress/failure (OR, 5.78; p< 0.001), aspiration pneumonia/pneumonitis (OR, 5.01; p=0.004), shock (OR, 4.58; p=0.004), and acute renal failure (OR, 2.85; p=0.005) were associated with an increased risk of mortality. One or more surgical excisions were associated with a reduced risk of mortality (OR, 0.26; p< 0.001).ConclusionsAge ≥75 years, %TBSA ≥10%, intentional burn as the mechanism of injury, and certain comorbidities and complications were significant risk factors for in-hospital mortality in geriatric burn patients.

Heart failure and in-hospital mortality in elderly patients after elective noncardiac surgery in Spain

BackgroundPatients with heart failure (HF) undergoing noncardiac surgical procedures is rising worldwide. This study was aiming at analyzing the impact of heart failure (HF) on the outcomes (mortality, complications, readmissions, and length of stay) of elderly patients undergoing elective major noncardiac surgical procedures in Spain. MethodsA retrospective observational study of patients undergoing noncardiac surgery was conducted. The Minimum Basic Data Set (MBDS) was used to collect information about the demographic characteristics of patients discharged from hospitals of the Spanish National Health System (SNHS), variables related to patients’ medical conditions and surgeries conducted during the episode. ResultsA total of 996,986 selected procedures in the discharge record were identified in the period 2007–2015. HF was recorded as a secondary diagnosis in 22,367 discharges (2.24%). The mean age of patients was 76.6±7.27 years, with a difference in patients without and with HF: 76.5 (95% CI: 76.47–76.50) vs 82.8 (95% CI: 82.71–82.90). The number of selected surgical procedures increased by 13.2% (117,487 in 2015 vs. 103,744 in 2007), and the proportion of presence HF as a comorbidity increased by 24.4% (2.4% in 2015 v 1.9% in 2007). The proportion of women was higher in the HF group: 53.2% (95% CI: 53.18–53.22) vs 64.3% (95% CI: 64.20–64.44), with a longer average length of stay: 7.9 (95% CI: 7.9–7.9) vs 14.9 (95% CI 14.7–15.0) days, and women had a higher proportion of comorbidities. HF was found to be an independent risk factor in-hospital mortality in the multilevel risk adjustment model (OR=2.3; 95% CI: 2.2–2.4). ConclusionsPatients with HF undergoing any of the selected surgical procedures are older; there was women predominance and there is also an important burden of comorbidities than patients without HF undergoing these surgical procedures. HF in the selected procedures, increasing in-hospital mortality, mean length of stay, and the occurrence of adverse events in the Spanish population. The percentage of patients with HF who underwent the selected surgical procedures increased in the study period.

Prognostic Accuracy of the qSOFA Score for In-Hospital Mortality in Elderly Patients with Obstructive Acute Pyelonephritis: A Multi-Institutional Study.

Prognostic accuracy of the quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) score for mortality may be limited in elderly patients. Using our multi-institutional database, we classified obstructive acute pyelonephritis (OAPN) patients into young and elderly groups, and evaluated predictive performance of the qSOFA score for in-hospital mortality. qSOFA score ≥ 2 was an independent predictor for in-hospital mortality, as was higher age, and Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) ≥ 2. In young patients, the area under the curve (AUC) of the qSOFA score for in-hospital mortality was 0.85, whereas it was 0.61 in elderly patients. The sensitivity and specificity of qSOFA score ≥ 2 for in-hospital mortality was 80% and 80% in young patients, and 50% and 68% in elderly patients, respectively. For elderly patients, we developed the CCI-incorporated qSOFA score, which showed higher prognostic accuracy compared with the qSOFA score (AUC, 0.66 vs. 0.61, p < 0.001). Therefore, the prognostic accuracy of the qSOFA score for in-hospital mortality was high in young OAPN patients, but modest in elderly patients. Although it can work as a screening tool to determine therapeutic management in young patients, for elderly patients, the presence of comorbidities should be considered at the initial assessment.

Controlling nutritional status (conut) score as a predictive marker of in-hospital mortality in elderly patients: a pooled analysis of cohort studies

Rationale: The controlling nutritional status (CONUT) score assesses nutritional status and is associated with short-term and long-term prognosis in some diseases, but the significance of CONUT score for the prognosis of in-hospital mortality in elderly patients is unknown.

Dementia and in-hospital mortality: retrospective analysis of a nationwide administrative database of elderly subjects in Italy.

To evaluate the relationship between comorbidity and in-hospital mortality in elderly patients affected by dementia. Data were obtained from the Italian Ministry of Health and included all discharge records from Italian hospitals concerning subjects aged ≥ 65years admitted to acute Internal Medicine or Geriatrics wards between January 2015 and December 2016 (3.695.278 admissions). The variables analyzed included age, sex, and in-hospital death. Twenty-five homogeneous clusters of diseases were identified in discharge codes according to the ICD-9-CM classification. Patients with dementia represented 7.5% of the sample (n. 278.149); they were older, more often males (51.9%), and had a higher in-hospital mortality (24.3%) compared to patients without dementia (9.7%). Dementia per se doubled the odds of death (OR 1.98; 95% CI 1.95-2.00), independent of age, sex, and comorbidities. Seven clusters of disease (pneumonia, heart failure, kidneys disease, cancer, infectious diseases, diseases of fluids/electrolytes and general symptoms) were associated with increased in-hospital mortality, independent of the presence/absence of dementia. Among patients with dementia, heart failure, pneumonia and kidney disease on their own substantially doubled/tripled mortality risk. The risk increased from 10.1% (none of selected conditions), up to 28.9% when only one of selected comorbidities was present, rising to 52.3% (OR: 9.34; p < 0.001) when two or more comorbidities were simultaneously diagnosed, besides general symptoms. Our study confirmed an important increase of in-hospital mortality in older subjects with dementia.Despite a different comorbidity, the conditions associated with in-hospital mortality were substantially the same in patients with or without dementia. Heart failure,pneumonia, and kidney disease identified a high risk of in-hospital mortality among subjects with dementia.

The association between abnormal serum magnesium levels and prognosis of elderly patients with community-acquired pneumonia

To investigate the association between abnormal serum magnesium levels and the prognosis of elderly patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Methods: A retrospective study was conducted on 1381 elderly patients with CAP in the First Hospital of Qinhuangdao between January 2015 and December 2018. Serum magnesium concentrations in the range of 0.75-1.25 mmol/L were defined as normal. Patients were assigned into normal, hypomagnesemia, and hypermagnesemia groups. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality, indicating whether a patient died at the time of discharge from the hospital. The percentages of respiratory failure and mechanical ventilation were 18.6% and 10.6 % in the normal group, 29% and 16.5 % in the hypomagnesemia, and 42.9% and 35.7% in the hypermagnesemia groups. The occurrence of shock was 8.5% and 4.5% in the hypomagnesemia group and the normal group. The percentages of the length of stay at ICU were 14.9%, 18.8%, and 57.1% in the hypomagnesemia, normal, and hypermagnesemia groups. The in-hospital mortality rate was 5.3%, 9.1%, and 35.7% in the normal, hypomagnesemia, and hypermagnesemia groups, respectively. The results of univariate analysis showed that the in-hospital mortality in the hypomagnesemia group was 1.790 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.009∼3.176, P=0.046) times higher than that in the normal group; in the hypermagnesemia group, it was 9.947 (95% CI: 3.238-30.556, P<0.001) times higher than that in the normal group. The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that after adjusting for gender, age, diabetes, heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, cancer, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), glucose, and CURB-65 score, in the hypomagnesemia group, the in-hospital mortality was 1.746 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.956∼3.186, P=0.070) times higher than that in the normal group, and 5.689 (95% CI: 1.583- 20.446, P=0.008) times higher in the hypermagnesemia group than that in the normal group. Abnormal serum magnesium levels are strongly associated with in-hospital mortality in elderly patients with CAP. The measurement of serum magnesium levels in elderly patients with CAP at admission may assist clinicians to determine the prognosis of such patients.

Nonlinear Association of Hospital Length of Stay and In-hospital Mortality of Elderly Patients Admitted Emergently for Colon Cancer: Analysis of 40,421 Patients

Nonlinear Association of Hospital Length of Stay and In-hospital Mortality of Elderly Patients Admitted Emergently for Colon Cancer: Analysis of 40,421 Patients

Identification of Mortality Predictors among Elderly Patients Admitted to Geriatrics and Gerontology Department, Ain Shams University Hospitals

Abstract Background Elderly persons are prone to frequent hospitalization for a longer period of time. It has been reported that approximately 5% of elderly die during hospital stay, whereas 20%– 30% die within one year following hospital discharge. Many factors including aging-associated diseases, chronic diseases, drug abuse, poly pharmacy, functional disability, feeding problems, prolonged length of hospital stay are associated with increasing mortality risk. In addition, symptoms and signs are significantly variable in the elderly and usually atypically represented. Objective To identify predictive factors associated with in-hospital mortality in elderly patients admitted to Ain Shams University Geriatric hospital wards and intermediate care unit. Methods A prospective cohort study of all Egyptian elderly patients (aged 60 years old or above) admitted at Geriatric Hospital (general ward and intermediate care unit), Ain Shams University Hospitals (Cairo, Egypt), over a period of 6 months (from April 2019 to September 2019). Patients were subjected to structured interview questionnaire including data pertaining socio-demographic data, past medical history, relevant physical examination, Short-form of Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE) and SOFA score. Association between different risk factors and mortality rate was done to identify the most significant predictive factors leading to mortality in elderly in order to implement specific geriatric interventions in the future to prevent such fatal consequences. Results The present study included 140 patients, of whom 73 (52.1%) were females and 67 (47.8%) were males. Nearly, 80% of the studied sample were discharged, while 20% died during hospitalization. The most common pre-morbid conditions were hypertension (58.6%), diabetes mellitus (40%), gastrointestinal tract diseases (40.7%), cerebrovascular strokes (37.8%) and ischemic heart disease (35.7%). On admission, the mean SOFA score of the discharged group was (6±2.8) while the mean score of the deceased group was (8.9± 3.6). Evaluation of the general characteristics of the discharged and deceased groups revealed that the mortality rate is significantly associated with male gender (p = 0.018), depressive disorders (p &amp;lt; 0.001), hepatic diseases (p = 0.008), gastrointestinal tract diseases (p = 0.048), length of hospital stay (p = 0.001) and initial SOFA score on admission to acute care setting (p &amp;lt; 0.001). Conclusion Predictors of mortality during hospitalization of elderly patients include; male gender, depression, hepatic diseases, GIT diseases, length of hospital stay and initial SOFA score on admission. These factors must be evaluated to identify the potential candidates for specific geriatric interventions and specific plan of care.