Identification of Mortality Predictors among Elderly Patients Admitted to Geriatrics and Gerontology Department, Ain Shams University Hospitals

Abstract

Abstract Background Elderly persons are prone to frequent hospitalization for a longer period of time. It has been reported that approximately 5% of elderly die during hospital stay, whereas 20%– 30% die within one year following hospital discharge. Many factors including aging-associated diseases, chronic diseases, drug abuse, poly pharmacy, functional disability, feeding problems, prolonged length of hospital stay are associated with increasing mortality risk. In addition, symptoms and signs are significantly variable in the elderly and usually atypically represented. Objective To identify predictive factors associated with in-hospital mortality in elderly patients admitted to Ain Shams University Geriatric hospital wards and intermediate care unit. Methods A prospective cohort study of all Egyptian elderly patients (aged 60 years old or above) admitted at Geriatric Hospital (general ward and intermediate care unit), Ain Shams University Hospitals (Cairo, Egypt), over a period of 6 months (from April 2019 to September 2019). Patients were subjected to structured interview questionnaire including data pertaining socio-demographic data, past medical history, relevant physical examination, Short-form of Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE) and SOFA score. Association between different risk factors and mortality rate was done to identify the most significant predictive factors leading to mortality in elderly in order to implement specific geriatric interventions in the future to prevent such fatal consequences. Results The present study included 140 patients, of whom 73 (52.1%) were females and 67 (47.8%) were males. Nearly, 80% of the studied sample were discharged, while 20% died during hospitalization. The most common pre-morbid conditions were hypertension (58.6%), diabetes mellitus (40%), gastrointestinal tract diseases (40.7%), cerebrovascular strokes (37.8%) and ischemic heart disease (35.7%). On admission, the mean SOFA score of the discharged group was (6±2.8) while the mean score of the deceased group was (8.9± 3.6). Evaluation of the general characteristics of the discharged and deceased groups revealed that the mortality rate is significantly associated with male gender (p = 0.018), depressive disorders (p < 0.001), hepatic diseases (p = 0.008), gastrointestinal tract diseases (p = 0.048), length of hospital stay (p = 0.001) and initial SOFA score on admission to acute care setting (p < 0.001). Conclusion Predictors of mortality during hospitalization of elderly patients include; male gender, depression, hepatic diseases, GIT diseases, length of hospital stay and initial SOFA score on admission. These factors must be evaluated to identify the potential candidates for specific geriatric interventions and specific plan of care.