Important Weather Systems Research Articles

Consecutive Northward Super Typhoons Induced Extreme Ozone Pollution Events in Eastern China

Typhoons are one of the most important weather systems that can cause severe ozone (O3) pollution in eastern China. While the effects of individual typhoons on O3 concentrations have been extensively studied, the effects of consecutive northward typhoons and the underlying mechanisms remain unclear, partly due to the complex processes involved. Here, Typhoons Maysak and Haishen, two consecutive northward typhoons in 2020, are selected to investigate their impact on the O3 pollution in eastern China. The results show that consecutive northward typhoons not only produced and maintained meteorological conditions conducive to O3 generation (e.g., elevated temperatures and intensified solar radiation), but also facilitated local accumulation and cross-regional transport of O3. These factors jointly led to a 30% increase in O3 concentration in eastern China with a prolonged period of O3 pollution. Our work underscores the significance of complex meteorological conditions in O3 pollution occurrences during extreme weather events, advancing our understanding of how consecutive northward typhoons affect air quality.

A Diagnostic Study on a Southward Southwest Vortex Track Forecasted by CMA-GFS: The Role of Initial Field

Abstract It is known that the southwest vortex (SWV) is an important weather system that may induce severe weather. The southward deviation of an SWV track forecasted by the Global Assimilation and Prediction System of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA-GFS) is systematically diagnosed in this study. The southward shift of the SWV is directly attributed to the deviation of the steering flow caused by the weak forecast of the upper-level trough. According to the diagnosis of potential tendency, the underestimation of the initial vorticity advection forecasted by CMA-GFS dominates the weak development of the upper-level trough. The underestimation of the vorticity advection is eventually sourced to the weak geostrophic wind caused by the weak initial meridional and zonal gradients of the midlevel height in front of the trough. The assimilation process on the initial field of the CMA-GFS acts a negative effect on forecasting this SWV track. It weakens the π field at midmodel level, resulting in the weak midlevel height gradient in front of the trough. A verified numerical experiment initialized by a more reasonable field is carried out and the southward shift of the SWV is obviously modified. This study suggests that a reasonable analysis field is crucial for the accurate forecast of the SWV track. Significance Statement The important impact of initial field deviation in key regions on the forecast in the late period is highlighted. A systematic diagnosis process for identifying and addressing forecast issues on SWV track is proposed. This research provides a comprehensive approach for diagnosing the forecast deviation associated with SWV track.

Characteristics of Western Disturbance intensification and associated induced circulations over the Indian Region

Western Disturbances (WD) are significantly important weather systems causing precipitation in the Western Himalayan region during Indian Winter months. WDs have two major components-the eastward propagating upper-level trough originating in the mid-latitudes and the low-level Induced Circulation (IC) prevailing over the Northern Indo-Pak region. The present work aims to study the genesis and movement of these upper-level systems using composite analysis of 10 WD events during the Indian winter season that caused extreme precipitation over the western Himalayan region with emphasize on associative mechanisms leading to the IC. Further, we find that the Meridional Temperature Gradient (MTG) is responsible for the development of extra-tropical storms initiated by frontal genesis over the mid-latitude regions. The frontal genesis occurs due to the polar cold air outbreak (CAO) over higher latitudes, causing meandering of the jet stream and leading to the development of the upper-level perturbation that intensifies into a trough. Prior to the IC intensification, the upper-level moisture transport dominates, and during the intensification process, the combined effect of the upper-level trough and IC facilitates a drastic increase in moisture flux from the Arabian Sea at the lower levels. The moisture transport from the Arabian Sea is, therefore, a primary precursor to heavy precipitation in the Himalayan vicinity due to rapid vertical ascent and intense cloud formation because of orographic effects.

Objective Identification Method of Cold-Front Precipitation in Winter Half Years over East Asia

Cold front is an important weather system that produces precipitation in East Asia. Under the background of global warming, extreme precipitation caused by cold fronts presents a significant increasing trend. Hence, it is very important to quantify the cold-front precipitation that may cause great damages. In this study, an objective identification method is proposed for cold-front precipitation, which can objectively identify the precipitation area affected by cold fronts. Then, the climatological characteristics and trends of cold-front precipitation over East Asia in the winter half years from 1989 to 2018 are investigated by using the ERA-5 reanalysis dataset. Based on the dataset of cold fronts and frontal zones, this method automatically distinguishes the precipitation area affected by cold fronts to quantitatively estimate cold-front precipitation. The results show that this identification method can well describe cold-front activities and associated precipitation during an extreme cold wave event that occurred in southern China in January 2016. In the past 30 years, cold fronts have significantly contributed to the precipitation in East Asia in winter half years. The areas with the maximum cold-front precipitation and maximum contribution rate of cold-front precipitation to total precipitation are located in the North Pacific storm track, cold-front precipitation exceeds 700 mm, and the contribution of cold-front precipitation to total precipitation exceeds 60%. In addition, the contribution rates of cold-front precipitation are also relatively large in the midlatitudes of East Asia, especially in North China and Northeast China, where cold-front precipitation accounts for 50%–60% of total precipitation. In East Asia, the total precipitation in autumn is greater than that in winter; however, cold-front precipitation and its contribution rate in winter are significantly more and larger than those in autumn. As the cold-frontal activity is more frequent and intense in winter, the rainfall in winter depends more on cold fronts. In the past 30 years, the trends of cold-front precipitation and total precipitation are consistent in most parts of East Asia, indicating that cold-front precipitation makes a great contribution to the trend of total precipitation in winter half years.

Physical and Optical Properties of Clouds in the Southwest Vortex from FY-4A Cloud Retrievals

Abstract The southwest vortex (SWV) is a critical weather system in China, but our knowledge of this system remains incomplete. Here, we investigate the cloud properties in the SWV. First, we search for the SWVs with time steps and center locations that are consistent between the SWV yearbook and ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Second, we supplement these SWVs’ life spans and movement paths. Third, we relocate the Fengyun (FY) satellite FY-4A cloud retrievals in the 10° × 10° region centered on each SWV and analyze the cloud occurrence frequency (COF), cloud-top height (CTH), and cloud optical thickness (COT). A distribution mode of cloud types is summarized from the COFs, with water clouds, supercooled clouds, mixed clouds, ice clouds, cirrus clouds, and overlap clouds occurring sequentially from west to east. The CTH probability density (PD) distribution features a significant north–south difference. In addition, the COT PD distributions exhibit a common trend: with increasing COT, the PD increases rapidly and then slowly before peaking, whereupon the PD decreases abruptly. From spring to summer, the region with the highest convective COF shifts from the northeast to the northwest, and an east–west gradient of the convective COF appears in autumn and winter. Furthermore, we investigate the cloud properties during SWV-related heavy rainfall. Heavy rain occurs mainly in the west of the SWV, and convective clouds are mainly in the northwest, partly in the southwest and near the SWV center. The average CTH in heavy rainfall is generally higher than 6 km, and the average COT is greater than 20. Significance Statement The southwest vortex (SWV) is an important weather system in China. However, we do not yet comprehensively know this weather system. The cloud properties can indicate the structures of weather systems and are key parameters in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Thus, investigating cloud properties is necessary and meaningful to understand the SWV and accurately predict SWV-related precipitation in NWP models. In this paper, a typical distribution mode of six cloud types in the SWV is summarized from the cloud occurrence frequency, and the distribution features of convective clouds, cloud-top height, and cloud optical thickness in the SWV are analyzed. Furthermore, the cloud properties in SWV-related heavy rain are also studied.

Characteristics of Transient Eddies During Ural Blocking Events With Different Lifetime in Winter

Ural blocking high (hereafter UB) is one of the most important weather systems influencing the weather and climate of China, with its onset and development closely connected with transient eddies. Herein, we classified the wintertime UB events during 1979–2015 into three types according to their lifetime, i.e., short, medium, and long lifetime UB events and further analyzed the characteristics of momentum and heat fluxes transported by transient eddies during the three types of UB events. The results show that the eddy momentum and heat transport by transient eddies over the Ural regions is strong, while the westerly is weak, favorable for the establishment and maintenance of the UB. Before the onset of all the UB events there are enhanced lower-level temperature disturbances, decelerated westerly and convergence of transient momentum and heat fluxes. After the onset of the UB, the upper-level jet stream is accelerated and eddy flux convergence is enhanced. Furthermore, it is found that the duration and position of convergence could be one of important factors determining the lifetime of UB event. The long-time strong convergence of transient eddies favors the maintenance of UB. During long UB events, the polar jet and the convergence of eddy momentum fluxes have the strongest intensity and northward shifted position. The convergence is further strengthened until Day +2 and weakened since Day +7, favorable for the long-time maintenance of UB. There is convergence on Day -3 of both short and medium UB events, which disappears on Day +4 during short events, while strengthened after the onset of medium events, leading to a long-time maintenance of UB. Furthermore, among the three types of UB events, the upward propagation of wave activity and E-P flux divergence are the strongest and most long-lasting during long UB events, while the weakest and shortest during short UB events, which can also verify strong atmospheric baroclinicity and long-lasting strong convergence of transient eddies are favorable for long duration of the UB.

Development of Tropical Cyclone over the Bay of Bengal during South West Monsoon

South West Monsoon (SW Monsoon) and Tropical Cyclone (TC) are two important weather systems for Bangladesh. During SW Monsoon i.e. during rainy season Bangladesh gets 70% to 85% of her annual rainfall. TC accompanied with strong gale winds, tornadoes, torrential rains and storm surges is considered as a deadly natural disaster. TC’s are mostly formed during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon season, but not uncommon during SW monsoon. This study consults the best track data (cyclone e-atlas) of India Meteorological Department (IMD) containing tracks of cyclones and depression over North Indian Ocean (NIO) for the years 1891 to 2020 i.e. of 130 years. In these 130 years, among total 1219 storms, 608 had formed during SW monsoon. If only Cyclonic Storms (CS) and Severe Cyclonic Storms (SCS) are considered then, 150 storms formed during SW Monsoon. This paper studied two cyclogenesis factors; vertical wind shear and upper level anticyclone for eight cases of tropical storms formed during SW Monsoon. Besides cyclogenesis factors, influence of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is also studied. Threat analysis associated with tropical storms during SW Monsoon has been done which might help in planning of National Disaster Management Program. The Dhaka University Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Vol. 10(1), 2021, P 57-65

Prediction of polar vortex intensity signal based on convolution smoothing and long short-term memory

Polar vortex is an important weather system that affects the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere and the climate change in the Arctic. The intensity variation of polar vortex is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and many other climate phenomena. However, there are few researches on the prediction of polar vortex intensity change, our study analyzes and predicts the intensity variation of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex, and further uses convolution smoothing and depth learning methods to improve the accuracy of the prediction. The result shows that the long-short time memory network method’s prediction accuracy is not enough high. After the convolution smoothing of the time series of intensity signal, the prediction accuracy of neural network has been significantly improved. The average absolute error of the traditional long short-term memory network method is 18.29, while the average absolute error of the smoothed prediction intensity and the actual intensity is 13.77. In addition, the correlation between the predicted results and the real values is also as high as 0.9981.

Analysis of the Interactions between the 200 hPa Jet and Air Pollutants in the Near-Surface Layer over East Asia in Summer

The rapid economic development in East Asia has led to serious air pollution problems in the near-surface layer. Studies have shown that there is an interaction between air pollution and the East Asian upper-level jet, which is an important weather system controlling the climate in East Asia. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the relationship between the surface layer air pollutants and the upper-level jet stream in East Asia. Based on the daily wind and vertical velocity data provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research as well as the surface pollutant and meteorological variable data provided by the Science Data Bank, we use statistical analysis methods to study the relationship between the East Asian upper-level jet and the high-concentration area of near-surface air pollutants in summer. Meanwhile, the mechanisms of the interaction are preliminarily discussed. The results show that the North China Plain and the Tarim Basin are the high-value areas of the particulate matter (PM) in summer during 2013–2018, and the ozone (O3) concentration in the near-surface atmospheric layer in the North China Plain is also high. The average concentrations of the PM2.5, PM10 and O3 in the North China Plain are 45.09, 70.28 and 131.27 μg·m−3, respectively, and the days with the concentration exceeding the standard reach 401, 461 and 488, respectively. During this period, there is an increasing trend in the O3 concentration and a decreasing trend in the PM concentration. The average ratio of the PM2.5 to PM10 is approximately 0.65 with a decreasing trend. The air pollutant concentration in this region has a significant relationship with the location of the East Asian upper-level jet. The low wind speed at the surface level under the control of the upper-level jet is the main reason for the high pollutant concentration besides the pollutant emission. They relate to each other through the surface humidity and the meridional and zonal wind. Meanwhile, the concentrations of the PM2.5 and PM10 are high in the near-surface layer in the Tarim Basin, and the average concentrations are 45.19 and 49.08 μg·m−3, respectively. The days with the concentration exceeding the standard are 265 and 193, respectively. The interannual variation in the PM concentration shows an increasing trend first and then a decreasing trend. The average ratio of PM2.5 to PM10 in this region reaches approximately 0.9. The ratio reaches the highest in 2013 and 2014 and then decreases to and maintains at approximately 0.85. The concentration of air pollutants in the basin has a significant relationship with the intensity of the upper-level jet in East Asia. The weakening of the upper-level jet will lead to a decrease in the surface humidity in the northern part of the basin, an increase in the surface temperature in the western part of the basin and a decrease in the surface zonal wind in the eastern part of the basin, which will result in a higher PM concentration.

Microphysical Processes of a Cold Vortex during Its Movement to the East: A Case Study

A cold vortex is an important weather system that can cause low temperatures and large amounts of rainfall. Many scientific studies have focused on the climatological features of the cold vortex along with its formation, maintenance, structure, circulation features and precipitation distribution from a synoptic perspective. However, not many studies have been conducted related to the microphysical processes in a cold vortex. In this paper, a model study is presented on the microphysical features in a cloud system associated with a cold vortex system which lasted for four days. The system formed, strengthened, split into two and dissipated while it moved towards the east and brought extensive precipitation to the influenced area. The type and amount of precipitation were not evenly distributed: liquid precipitation covered the whole area influenced by the cloud system, while solid precipitation mainly covered high latitudes north of 48° N. In this case, the cloud system was very cold and the 0 °C; level was very low, with the result that the microphysical features were dominated by cold cloud processes. The mixing ratio of liquid particles was very small, and liquid particles only covered limited areas in the clouds. Due to the low temperature, there were insufficient cloud droplets throughout the whole system for the efficient production of rain droplets by coalescence. The snow mixing ratio was largest, and ice and snow covered the whole cloud area, with very little graupel, which occurred in only a small area. The distribution of the solid particles was influenced by their growth through aggregation, the Bergeron process or accretion, resulting in many snow particles. There were insufficient liquid particles to support the formation of very large particles such as graupel. Liquid precipitation was primarily caused by the melting of snow particles precipitating out of the clouds; solid precipitation was also primarily caused by snow particles that did not melt, along with some graupel.

Relative Roles of Eurasian Snow Depth and Sea Surface Temperature in Indian and Korean Summer Monsoons Based on GME Model Simulations

AbstractIndian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) are the most important weather systems in India and Korea respectively. The interannual variations of ISM and EASM largely depend on the anomalies of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of Tropical Equtorial Pacific and Indian Ocean and also on the Eurasian Snow Depth/Cover. In this study, the relative roles of these two most important surface boundary conditions on the Indian and Korean monsoons have been examined using the high resolution (40 km) global numerical weather prediction model of German Weather Service (GME). Four sets of experiments were carried out by varying the climatological and observed values of SSTs and snow. This study shows that there is a negative (positive) relationship between the Western (Eastern) Eurasian snow depth and ISMR, whereas a positive (negative) relationship between the Western (Eastern) Eurasian snow depth and Korean monsoon rainfall has been observed. Results show that when observed SST and snow are prescribed to the model as boundary conditions, the simulated winds and rainfall are close to the NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed winds and GPCP rainfall, respectively. This study reveals that the model simulated summer monsoons in Indian and Korean domains are not good enough unless an observed Eurasian snow is prescribed in addition to the observed SST.

The storm activities in the West Pacific from 1980 to 2018

The storm is an important weather system that significantly affects socioeconomics and human living. This study uses the global tropical cyclone best track data from IBTrACS, along with other meteorological states from ECMWF ERA-5 reanalysis from 1980 to 2018. In the West Pacific, storms are more likely to occur in summer (July, August and September). During the 39-year period, the occurrence of storm activities tends to be less frequent in summer, accompanied by increased sea surface temperature, total precipitation and total column water. It is also found that the storm number exhibited a high correlation with sea surface temperature, surface pressure, total precipitation and total column water in the middle West Pacific as well as the sea of Okhotsk in summer.

Trends and low frequency variability of East Coast Lows in the twentieth century

East Coast Lows (ECLs) are important weather systems that affect the eastern seaboard of Australia. They have attracted research interest for both their destructive nature and water supplying capability. In this paper, three objective ECL tracking methods are applied to the twentieth century reanalysis ensemble (20CRV2C) for the period of 1851–2014 to identify historical trends and variability in ECLs. While the ensemble mean is unsuitable for tracking ECLs, when all methods are applied to the full 56-member ensemble there is large agreement between tracking methods as to the low-frequency variability and trends in ECLs. The uncertainty between 56 ensemble members has dramatically decreased in recent decades. For comparison, the three tracking methods are also applied to ERA-I reanalysis dataset for the overlapping time period (1980-2009). The inter-annual variability and monthly distribution of ECLs agrees well between different reanalysis for each of tracking methods. The most recent decade has had relatively low numbers of ECLs compared to the previous century.

Trends and low frequency variability of East Coast Lows in the twentieth century

East Coast Lows (ECLs) are important weather systems that affect the eastern seaboard of Australia. They have attracted research interest for both their destructive nature and water supplying capability. In this paper, three objective ECL tracking methods are applied to the twentieth century reanalysis ensemble (20CRV2C) for the period of 1851–2014 to identify historical trends and variability in ECLs. While the ensemble mean is unsuitable for tracking ECLs, when all methods are applied to the full 56-member ensemble there is large agreement between tracking methods as to the low-frequency variability and trends in ECLs. The uncertainty between 56 ensemble members has dramatically decreased in recent decades. For comparison, the three tracking methods are also applied to ERA-I reanalysis dataset for the overlapping time period (1980-2009). The inter-annual variability and monthly distribution of ECLs agrees well between different reanalysis for each of tracking methods. The most recent decade has had relatively low numbers of ECLs compared to the previous century.

A WRF-Based Tool for Forecast Sensitivity to the Initial Perturbation: The Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations versus the First Singular Vector Method and Comparison to MM5

AbstractA forecast sensitivity to initial perturbation (FSIP) analysis tool for the WRF Model was developed. The tool includes two modules respectively based on the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method and the first singular vector (FSV) method. The FSIP tool can be used to identify regions of sensitivity for targeted observation research and important influential weather systems for a given forecast metric.This paper compares the performance of the FSIP tool to its MM5 counterpart, and demonstrates how CNOP, local CNOP (a kind of conditional nonlinear suboptimal perturbation), and FSV were detected using their evolutions of cost function. The column-integrated features of the perturbations were generally similar between the two models. More significant differences were apparent in the details of their vertical distribution. With Typhoon Matsa (2005) in the western North Pacific and a winter storm in the United States (2000) as validation cases, this work examined the tool’s capability to identify sensitive regions for targeted observation and to investigate important influential weather systems. The location and pattern of the sensitive areas identified by CNOP, local CNOP, and FSV were quite similar for both the Typhoon Matsa case and the winter storm case. The main differences were mainly in their impact on the growth of forecast difference and the details of their vertical distributions. For both cases, the wind observations might be more important than temperature observations. The results also showed that local CNOP was more capable of capturing the influence of important weather systems on the forecast of total dry energy in the verification area.

Dynamics of the perfect storms: La Niña and Australia’s extreme rainfall and floods of 1974 and 2011

An ensemble of general circulation model simulations and dynamical mode analyses of important weather systems contributing to Australia’s severe rainfall and flooding events, in January 1974 and January 2011, are described. Dispersion relation techniques have also been used to extract the leading weather systems in observations and general circulation model (GCM) simulations, including Kelvin waves and intraseasonal oscillations. We find that the severe rainfall and flooding events over northern Australia in January 1974 and January 2011 coincided with significant intraseasonal oscillation and Kelvin wave activity that constructively interfered on the critical days of very high rainfall. The CSIRO Mk3L spectral GCM has been used to simulate both events. Particular simulations from 1870 to 2011, forced by observed SSTs and increasing CO2, agree well with observations in both the timing and patterns of these disturbances. The growth and structures of the leading dynamical normal modes have also been determined within a two-level primitive equation instability model. Our results show explosively growing intraseasonal oscillations and atmospheric Kelvin waves convectively coupled in the Australian monsoonal region. Monsoon disturbances, associated blocking over the Tasman Sea, and tropical–extratropical interactions also significantly contributed to the heavy rainfall. Model simulations and analyses of the dynamical modes are consistent with the synoptic situation seen in observational data for both severe precipitation events, and provide a more complete description of the reasons for the extreme impact of both events.

Identifying East Coast Lows with climate hazards on the eastern seaboard

East Coast Lows are an important weather system that can produce severe wind, wave and rainfall events along the eastern seaboard of Australia. While a number of databases of these systems have been produced, this information has historically not been readily accessible to potential users outside the research sec-tor. This paper details the development of a new product, Maps and Tables of Climate Hazards on the Eastern Seaboard (MATCHES), that bridges this gap. It combines a new database of East Coast Lows with weather impacts across the eastern seaboard. Through use of user-defined impacts thresholds and an intuitive front-end interface, this new tool provides an easy way to link East Coast Lows with their weather impacts.

Microphysical processes and hydrometeor distributions associated with thunderstorms over India: WRF (cloud-resolving) simulations and validations using TRMM

Thunderstorms are one of the disastrous weather events that affect various parts of the Indian region during the pre-monsoon summer months of March–April–May (MAM). Keeping this societal impact in account, this paper has documented the vertical distribution of cloud microphysical properties and dynamical fields associated with number of thunderstorms over different thunderstorm-prone regions of India. The main objective of this study was to bring out the spatial heterogeneity in the structure of thunderstorms during MAM. In spite of being such an important weather system, the present-day skill of forecasting such systems is particularly poor. This as such prompts us to ponder whether any existing microphysical scheme is able to capture the inherent heterogeneous structure of thunderstorms over different parts of India. To find an answer to this question, the regions are divided based on pre-monsoon lightning distribution obtained from the tropical rainfall measuring mission lightning imaging sensor data. Keeping this observation in background, cloud-resolving simulations are performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research Weather Model (version 3.2) along with three explicit microphysical schemes for a number of thunderstorm cases those occurred over five different regions of India. The composite structure of all thunderstorms simulated over a region is compared with observation to identify the systematic model bias. It is clearly brought out that the Thompson scheme with the present form is not able to capture different phases of thunderstorms over different parts of the country. However, WDM6 and Morrison are able to capture some of the features reasonably well, along with some degree of uncertainty. The inner structure of thunderstorms is very well brought out by contour frequency altitude diagram. This study therefore provides a framework and a basis of further modifications of WDM6 and Morrison for improving the model forecast for thunderstorms over the Indian region.

Identifying East Coast Lows with climate hazards on the eastern seaboard

East Coast Lows are an important weather system that can produce severe wind, wave and rainfall events along the eastern seaboard of Australia. While a number of databases of these systems have been produced, this information has historically not been readily accessible to potential users outside the research sec-tor. This paper details the development of a new product, Maps and Tables of Climate Hazards on the Eastern Seaboard (MATCHES), that bridges this gap. It combines a new database of East Coast Lows with weather impacts across the eastern seaboard. Through use of user-defined impacts thresholds and an intuitive front-end interface, this new tool provides an easy way to link East Coast Lows with their weather impacts.

Analysis of Precipitation and Flood Processes Caused by Cyclone and Cold Front in Dahuofang Reservoir

Cyclone and cold front are the important weather systems causing storm floods in Dahuofang reservoir. Through analyzing the precipitation daily distribution and flood processes affected by cyclone and cold front weather systems, the influence of different weather systems on reservoir flood control has been summarized. The study results show that flood processes caused by compound weather systems are the most serious threat to reservoir flood control, while flood processes caused by single cold front system have the least risk to reservoir flood safety and the flood threat caused by single cyclone is intermediate.