Important Source Of Uncertainty Research Articles

Getting allometry right at the Oak Ridge free‐air CO2 enrichment experiment: Old problems and new opportunities for global change experiments

Societal Impact StatementFree‐air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments provide essential data on forest responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 for evaluations of climate change impacts on humanity. Understanding and reducing the uncertainty in the experimental results is critical to ensure scientific and public confidence in the models and policy initiatives that derive therefrom. One source of uncertainty is the estimation of tree biomass using mathematical relationships between biomass and easily obtained and non‐destructive measurements (allometry). We evaluated the robustness of the allometric relationships established at the beginning of a FACE experiment and discuss the challenges and opportunities for the new generation of FACE experiments.Summary Long‐term field experiments to elucidate forest responses to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration require allometric equations to estimate tree biomass from non‐destructive measurements of tree size. We analyzed whether the allometric equations established at the beginning of a free‐air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiment in a Liquidambar styraciflua plantation were still valid at the end of the 12 year experiment. Aboveground woody biomass was initially predicted by an equation that included bole diameter, taper, and height, assuming that including taper and height as predictors would accommodate changes in tree structure that might occur over time and in response to elevated CO2. At the conclusion of the FACE experiment, we harvested 23 trees, measured dimensions and dry mass of boles and branches, and extracted and measured the woody root mass of 10 trees. Although 10 of the harvested trees were larger than the trees used to establish the allometric relationship, measured aboveground woody biomass was well predicted by the original allometry. The initial linear equation between bole basal area and woody root biomass underestimated final root biomass by 28%, but root biomass was just 21% of total wood mass, and errors in aboveground and belowground estimates were offsetting. The allometry established at the beginning of the experiment provided valid predictions of tree biomass throughout the experiment. New allometric approaches using terrestrial laser scanning should reduce an important source of uncertainty in decade‐long forest experiments and in assessments of centuries‐long forest biomass accretion used in evaluating carbon offsets and climate mitigation.

The Absolute Age of NGC 3201 Derived from Detached Eclipsing Binaries and the Hess Diagram

We estimate the absolute age of the globular cluster NGC 3201 using 10,000 sets of theoretical isochrones constructed through Monte Carlo simulation using the Dartmouth Stellar Evolution Program. These isochrones take into consideration the uncertainty introduced by the choice of stellar evolution parameters. We fit isochrones with three detached eclipsing binaries and obtained an age independent of distance. We also fit isochrones with differential reddening corrected Hubble Space Telescope photometry data utilizing two different Hess diagram-based fitting methods. Results from three different methods analyzing two different types of data agree to within 1σ, and we find the absolute age of NGC 3201 = 11.85 ± 0.74 Gyr. We also perform a variable importance analysis to study the uncertainty contribution from individual parameters, and we find the distance is the dominant source of uncertainty in photometry-based analysis, while total metallicity, helium abundance, α-element abundance, mixing length, and treatment of helium diffusion are an important source of uncertainties for all three methods.

Stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) for prostate cancer: Improving treatment delivery efficiency and accuracy

PurposeIn stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) for prostate cancer, intrafraction motion is an important source of treatment uncertainty as it could not be completely smoothed through fractionation. Herein, we compared different arrangements and beam qualities for extreme hypofractionated treatments to minimize beam delivery time and so intrafractional errors. MethodsA retrospective dataset of 11 patients was used. Three volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) beam arrangements were compared for a prescription dose of 40 Gy/5 fractions: two full arcs, 6 MV flattening filter free (FFF); one full arc, 6 MV FFF; one full arc, 10 MV FFF. A plan quality index was defined to compare achievement of the planning goals. Plan complexity was evaluated with the modulation factor. Dose delivery accuracy and efficiency were measured with patient-specific quality assurance plans. ResultsAll treatment plans fulfilled all dose objectives. No statistical differences were found both in plan quality and complexity. Very accurate dose delivery was achieved with the three arrangements, with mean γ passing rates >96.5 % (2 %/2 mm criteria). Slightly but significantly higher γ passing rates were observed with single-arc 6 MV FFF. Contrariwise, statistically significant reductions of the delivery time were obtained with single-arc geometries: the average delivery times were 1.6 min (−46.1 %) and 1.3 min (−56.2 %) for 6 and 10 MV FFF respectively. ConclusionsThe high-quality, very fast and accurate dose delivery of single-arc plans confirmed the suitability of this arrangement for prostate SBRT. In particular, the significant reduction of delivery time would improve treatment robustness against intrafraction prostate motion.

Weather variability risks slow climate adaptation: An empirical analysis of forestry

The timing of climate adaptation decisions can have substantial consequences for the assessment of climate damages. Since weather variability can create risks for natural resource management that differ across adaptation choices, such variability has the potential to alter the speed of climate adaptation. This paper estimates the effect of weather variability on the timing of adaptation decisions of forest landowners in the Eastern United States. A discrete-choice econometric model of forest management is estimated and used in a bio-economic simulation that shows how variability in cold temperatures can significantly slow the rate of adapting from cold-tolerant natural hardwood forests to cold-sensitive, but highly valuable pine plantations. The range of weather variability in climate projections and across the landscape generates large differences in adaptation timing. Ignoring projected future decreases in weather variability results in a large downward bias in estimating future paths of climate adaptation. Since pine plantations produce fewer non-market ecosystem services than natural hardwood forests, an important source of future conservation uncertainty is the economic response of private forest landowners to changing weather variability.

Uncertainty quantification for high-temperature flame sensing using wavelength modulation spectroscopy

In this study, we explore the uncertainty of the wavelength modulation spectroscopy (WMS) technique applied to water profile measurement in a flat flame. The scanned WMS-2f/1f method is used to measure the water profile in a C2H4-O2-Ar flame, using an absorption transition line near 1391.7 nm. The Monte Carlo sampling method is used for the uncertainty quantification (UQ) analysis. The results show a non-negligible uncertainty on the water concentration with an uncertainty range from 10% to 30%, depending on the uncertainty level considered for the input parameters of the spectroscopic model. Further sensitivity analyses show that the lower state energy (E′′), the line strength, and the temperature are the most important uncertainty sources. When multiple transition lines are involved, the line strength value controls the overall influence of the other parameters associated with these specific lines. We also compared the uncertainty obtained when applying the direct absorption spectroscopy (DA) and WMS techniques for a similar flame configuration. Only a slight advantage is observed for the WMS.

Inconsistent evolutionary analysis of multi-level physical model for lithium-ion batteries considering calendering process uncertainties

Due to the variation in the calendering process, there are inconsistencies between battery cells that cannot be eliminated, which affects the energy utilization efficiency, safety, and reliability of the battery system. The deviations occur in the calendering process resulting in uncertainties in the structural parameters of the electrode. To analyze the evolutionary mechanism of inconsistency arising from the uncertainties in the calendering process, a stochastic, multi-level physical model approach combined with sparse polynomial chaos expansions is presented. The physical model is verified by voltage and temperature experiments. This approach enables to establish the relationship between calendering parameters variation and the inconsistency performance between cells. The performance of battery inconsistency has been quantified as a function of calendering process deviations at the manufacturing level. The most important uncertainty sources are identified by global sensitivity analysis. Based on the multi-level physical model approach, the battery module connected in series is constructed to study the effect of the calendering variations on the energy utilization efficiency of the battery module. The results suggest that the electrode thickness has the most significant effects on the battery capacity, resistance, and temperature. Meanwhile, the deviations of the mass load and electrode thickness need to be effectively controlled to achieve a better consistent performance between cells. Such information allows for more efficient design and targeted quality control, thereby reducing production costs.

Biofuels Induced Land Use Change Emissions: The Role of Implemented Land Use Emission Factors

Biofuels’ induced land-use change (ILUC) emissions have been widely studied over the past 15 years. Many studies have addressed uncertainties associated with these estimates. These studies have broadly examined uncertainties associated with the choice of economic models, their assumptions and parameters, and a few bio-physical variables. However, uncertainties in land-use emission factors that represent the soil and vegetation carbon contents of various land types across the world and are used to estimate carbon fluxes due to land conversions are mostly overlooked. This paper calls attention to this important omission. It highlights some important sources of uncertainty in land-use emissions factors, explores the range in these factors from established data sources, and compares the influence of their variability on ILUC emissions for several sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) pathways. The estimated land-use changes for each pathway are taken from a well-known computable general equilibrium model, GTAP-BIO. Two well-known carbon calculator models (CCLUB and AEZ-EF) that represent two different sets of emissions factors are used to convert the GTAP-BIO estimated land-use changes to ILUC emissions. The results show that the calculated ILUC emissions obtained from these carbon calculators for each examined SAF pathway are largely different, even for the same amortization time horizon. For example, the ILUC emissions values obtained from the AEZ-EF and CCLUB models for producing jet fuel from corn ethanol for a 25-year amortization period are 24.9 gCO2e/MJ and 15.96 gCO2e/MJ, respectively. This represents a 60% difference between the results of these two carbon calculators for the same set of land-use changes. The results show larger differences for other pathways as well.

Hydroclimatic Trends and Streamflow Response to Recent Climate Change: An Application of Discrete Wavelet Transform and Hydrological Modeling in the Passaic River Basin, New Jersey, USA

The exigency of the current climate crisis demands a more comprehensive approach to addressing location-specific climate impacts. In the Passaic River Basin (PRB), two bodies of research—hydroclimatic trend detection and hydrological modeling—have been conducted with the aim of revealing the basin’s hydroclimate patterns as well as the hydrologic response to recent climate change. In a rather novel application of the wavelet transform tool, we sidelined the frequently used Mann–Kendal (MK) trend test, to identify the hidden monotonic trends in the inherently noisy hydroclimatic data. By this approach, the use of MK trend test directly on the raw data, whose results are almost always ambiguous and statistically insignificant in respect of precipitation data, for instance, no longer poses a challenge to the reliability of trend results. Our results showed that, whereas trends in temperature and precipitation are increasing in the PRB, streamflow trends are decreasing. Based on results from the hydrological modeling, streamflow is more sensitive to actual evapotranspiration (ET) than it is to precipitation. In periods spanning decades with sufficient water availability, energy governs actual evapotranspiration rates, rendering streamflow more sensitive to increases in precipitation. Conversely, during meteorologically stressed decades, water availability dictates actual evapotranspiration, consequently amplifying streamflow sensitivity to fluctuations in actual evapotranspiration. We found that the choice of baseline condition constitutes an important source of uncertainty in the sensitivities of streamflow to precipitation and evapotranspiration changes and should routinely be considered in any climate impact assessment.

Numerical impact of variable volumes of Monte Carlo simulations of heterogeneous conductivity fields in groundwater flow models

The knowledge of aquifer systems, their geological setting, their structure, and subsequent modeling is highly uncertain and is usually faced through Monte Carlo-based methods in hydrogeology. One of the most important uncertainty sources for groundwater models is represented by input hydraulic conductivities, related to the aquifer’s structure. There are no specific rules when simulating hydraulic conductivity fields within Monte Carlo frameworks to instruct numerical models, and information about employed conductivity fields and their numerical convergence is often not given. This technical work aims to fill this gap by investigating the impact of employing conductivity information upon different volumes of Monte Carlo simulations applied to a real case study. Thus, this work estimates the minimum volumes of Monte Carlo hydraulic conductivity fields to be employed in groundwater flow models for achieving numerically stable (i) boundary conditions, (ii) global model performances, and (iii) local ones such as simulated hydraulic heads. The present results aim to be indicative of similar hydrogeological settings and will serve as a basis for more complex ones and for investigating transport problems.

Temperature‐Dependence Assumptions Drive Projected Responses of Diverse Size‐Based Food Webs to Warming

AbstractFood web projections are critical for evaluating potential risks to ecosystems and fisheries under global warming. The temperature dependence of biological processes and regional differences in food web structure are two important sources of uncertainty and variation in climate forced projections of fish communities, but we do not know their magnitude or relative contribution. Here we systematically evaluated a range of different assumptions about temperature‐dependence on rates, including size‐dependent effects, controlling food intake, metabolism, and non‐predation mortality in fishes using species‐resolved size spectrum food web models that link individual‐level physiological processes to population and community dynamics. We simulated the physiological effect of warming in a range of size‐structured food web models calibrated to different marine ecosystems and in simplified trait‐based models. Higher food intake in warmed conditions increased total fish biomass, catches, and mean body weight, but these effects were offset by the negative effects of warming on metabolism and mortality, which combined resulted in lower total biomasses and catches for most food webs. These effects were enhanced when warming increased metabolic rates more than food intake, and the outcomes were also sensitive to size dependency of temperature responses. Importantly, these general patterns were not uniform across all food webs—individual functional groups and fish species within food webs responded to warming in different ways depending on their position in the food web and its structure. Hence, caution is warranted when generalizing food web or species outcomes to warming because they are mediated by community interactions. Uncertainty related to temperature dependence and ecological interactions will impact food web projections and should be represented in climate change projections.

Power Production, Inter- and Intra-Array Wake Losses from the U.S. East Coast Offshore Wind Energy Lease Areas

There is an urgent need to develop accurate predictions of power production, wake losses and array–array interactions from multi-GW offshore wind farms in order to enable developments that maximize power benefits, minimize levelized cost of energy and reduce investment uncertainty. New, climatologically representative simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are presented and analyzed to address these research needs with a specific focus on offshore wind energy lease areas along the U.S. east coast. These, uniquely detailed, simulations are designed to quantify important sources of wake-loss projection uncertainty. They sample across different wind turbine deployment scenarios and thus span the range of plausible installed capacity densities (ICDs) and also include two wind farm parameterizations (WFPs; Fitch and explicit wake parameterization (EWP)) and consider the precise WRF model release used. System-wide mean capacity factors for ICDs of 3.5 to 6.0 MWkm−2 range from 39 to 45% based on output from Fitch and 50 to 55% from EWP. Wake losses are 27–37% (Fitch) and 11–19% (EWP). The discrepancy in CF and wake losses from the two WFPs derives from two linked effects. First, EWP generates a weaker ‘deep array effect’ within the largest wind farm cluster (area of 3675 km2), though both parameterizations indicate substantial within-array wake losses. If 15 MW wind turbines are deployed at an ICD of 6 MWkm−2 the most heavily waked wind turbines generate an average of only 32–35% of the power of those that experience the freestream (undisturbed) flow. Nevertheless, there is no evidence for saturation of the resource. The wind power density (electrical power generation per unit of surface area) increases with ICD and lies between 2 and 3 Wm−2. Second, EWP also systematically generates smaller whole wind farm wakes. Sampling across all offshore wind energy lease areas and the range of ICD considered, the whole wind farm wake extent for a velocity deficit of 5% is 1.18 to 1.38 times larger in simulations with Fitch. Over three-quarters of the variability in normalized wake extents is attributable to variations in freestream wind speeds, turbulent kinetic energy and boundary layer depth. These dependencies on meteorological parameters allow for the development of computationally efficient emulators of wake extents from Fitch and EWP.

Decomposing Uncertainty in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models

Abstract This paper studies the extent to which macro-finance term structure models are susceptible to predictive uncertainty. We propose a general form of arbitrage-free models and quantify the relative importance of unpredictable priced risk variance, as well as macro-finance model uncertainty and learning uncertainty in predictability. Predictive performance and relative contributions of uncertainty sources are dynamically measured based on Bayesian methods, revealing dominating priced risk variance and other important uncertainty sources at different points in time. Macro-finance model uncertainty is high for near-term forward spread forecasts and contributes up to 87% of predictive uncertainty prior to recessions, implying strong dispersion in the information content of macro variables when forming near-term monetary policy expectations. (JEL C1, C3, C5, D8, E4, G1)

Review of Smog Chamber Experiments for Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation

In this study, we reviewed smog chamber systems and methodologies used in secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation studies. Many important chambers across the world have been reviewed, including 18 American, 24 European, and 8 Asian chambers. The characteristics of the chambers (location, reactor size, wall materials, and light sources), measurement systems (popular equipment and working principles), and methodologies (SOA yield calculation and wall-loss correction) are summarized. This review discussed key experimental parameters such as surface-to-volume ratio (S/V), temperature, relative humidity, light intensity, and wall effect that influence the results of the experiment, and how the methodologies have evolved for more accurate simulation of atmospheric processes. In addition, this review identifies the sources of uncertainties in finding SOA yields that are originated from experimental systems and methodologies used in previous studies. The intensity of the installed artificial lights (photolysis rate of NO2 varied from 0.1/min to 0.40/min), SOA density assumption (varied from 1 g/cm3 to 1.45 g/cm3), wall-loss management, and background contaminants were identified as important sources of uncertainty. The methodologies developed in previous studies to minimize those uncertainties are also discussed.

Incorporating clinical trial outcomes in health economic evaluations of disease‐modifying therapies for AD

AbstractBackgroundEvidence on cost‐effectiveness of novel therapies for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is of increasing importance for patient access. Challenges involved in implementing treatment effects in health economic (HE) models is an important source of uncertainty around the value of new AD therapies. HE models are developed from observational studies that often include different patient populations and different endpoints and scales from clinical trials.MethodsThe International Pharmacoeconomic Collaboration on Alzheimer’s Disease (IPECAD) conducted a series of workshops with research groups developing HE models in AD, to systematically characterize methodological approaches to modelling and benchmark results from these models in standardized scenarios. We reviewed published models and contrasted the characteristics of these models with study design specifications of recent late‐stage clinical trials of AD DMT to highlight potential issues with incorporating efficacy data from clinical trials in existing HE models. Identified issues included: need for mapping between different scales used to assess cognition, function and other efficacy domains, incorporating effects on multiple domains, differences in trial populations and expected patient populations treated in routine care, and statistical methods for generating efficacy estimates for use in HE models.ResultsThree options were identified for translating trial efficacy estimates into HE models: 1) use actual trial data and model disease course post trial, 2) assume treatment reduces transition probabilities to more severe states, and 3) implement treatment effect as a proportional reduction of progression on the time scale.ConclusionsThe design of future clinical trials of DMT need to take into account the need to generate data to populate HE models. Pre‐specifying analyses of trial data for HE modeling purposes can reduce uncertainty and improve confidence in results.

A cloudy forecast for species distribution models: Predictive uncertainties abound for California birds after a century of climate and land-use change.

Correlative species distribution models are widely used to quantify past shifts in ranges or communities, and to predict future outcomes under ongoing global change. Practitioners confront a wide range of potentially plausible models for ecological dynamics, but most specific applications only consider a narrow set. Here, we clarify that certain model structures can embed restrictive assumptions about key sources of forecast uncertainty into an analysis. To evaluate forecast uncertainties and our ability to explain community change, we fit and compared 39 candidate multi- or joint species occupancy models to avian incidence data collected at 320 sites across California during the early 20th century and resurveyed a century later. We found massive (>20,000 LOOIC) differences in within-time information criterion across models. Poorer fitting models omitting multivariate random effects predicted less variation in species richness changes and smaller contemporary communities, with considerable variation in predicted spatial patterns in richness changes across models. The top models suggested avian environmental associations changed across time, contemporary avian occupancy was influenced by previous site-specific occupancy states, and that both latent site variables and species associations with these variables also varied over time. Collectively, our results recapitulate that simplified model assumptions not only impact predictive fit but may mask important sources of forecast uncertainty and mischaracterize the current state of system understanding when seeking to describe or project community responses to global change. We recommend that researchers seeking to make long-term forecasts prioritize characterizing forecast uncertainty over seeking to present a single best guess. To do so reliably, we urge practitioners to employ models capable of characterizing the key sources of forecast uncertainty, where predictors, parameters and random effects may vary over time or further interact with previous occurrence states.

Attribution of individual methane and carbon dioxide emission sources using EMIT observations from space.

Carbon dioxide and methane emissions are the two primary anthropogenic climate-forcing agents and an important source of uncertainty in the global carbon budget. Uncertainties are further magnified when emissions occur at fine spatial scales (<1 km), making attribution challenging. We present the first observations from NASA's Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) imaging spectrometer showing quantification and attribution of fine-scale methane (0.3 to 73 tonnes CH4 hour-1) and carbon dioxide sources (1571 to 3511 tonnes CO2 hour-1) spanning the oil and gas, waste, and energy sectors. For selected countries observed during the first 30 days of EMIT operations, methane emissions varied at a regional scale, with the largest total emissions observed for Turkmenistan (731 ± 148 tonnes CH4 hour-1). These results highlight the contributions of current and planned point source imagers in closing global carbon budgets.

Effects of Past Nd Seawater Concentrations on Nd‐Isotope Paleocirculation Reconstructions: A Bayesian Approach

AbstractNeodymium (Nd) isotope ratios are potentially valuable for paleo‐ocean circulation reconstructions because they trace water‐mass transport and mixing in the present‐day oceans. Moreover, the Atlantic and Pacific global end‐member Nd‐isotope values can be constrained through time, and at in‐between sites their proportions vary with past climate changes. However, an important source of uncertainty about Nd‐isotopes' applicability for paleo‐circulation studies arises from the inability to constrain past Nd‐concentrations of the end‐members. Here we address this “paleo‐[Nd] problem” through a Bayesian analysis. Results show that even large variability in end‐member Nd‐concentrations over the Pleistocene is unlikely to significantly impact their concentration ratio, therefore end‐member concentration changes likely have only small impacts on Nd‐isotope ratios at in‐between locations. The results support their applicability to reconstruct past Atlantic paleo‐circulation. In addition, a Nd‐isotope mass balance for Antarctic Bottom Water shows that its present‐day Nd‐isotope values are consistent with the input from its sources.

Spatio-Temporal Variation of Critical Relative Humidity Based on Multiple Datasets

Clouds remain an important source of uncertainty in climate simulations, in large part because subgrid processes are not well represented. Critical relative humidity (RHc) is an important metric for subgrid-scale variability in humidity in cloud parameterization. Based on CloudSat and CALIPSO satellite data, we explored the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of RHc, assessed the ability of ERA-5 and MERRA-2 reanalysis and CMIP-6 climate models to characterise humidity subgrid variability and further explored the influence of meteorological factors and aerosols. The statistical results showed that there was significant variation in the spatial distribution of RHc, with large variations in both latitude and altitude, as well as more pronounced monthly variations, and that there were differences in monthly variations between regions. Both the reanalysis data and the climate models were able to reproduce similar spatial and temporal distribution patterns but differed significantly in their specific values. The temporal correlations with satellite observations were also relatively poor. In addition, aerosols and meteorological conditions affected the distribution of RHc by influencing the cloud fraction at a certain relative humidity level, indicating that their influence needs to be considered in future parameterization schemes.

Recall of residential history and dietary habits during pregnancy and lactation in the distant past: reliability of questionnaire-based radiation doses for persons exposed in utero and early life.

This study evaluates the reliability of information obtained by standardized questionnaires used in by personal interviews for estimation of radiation thyroid doses of 1065 individuals in the Belarusian cohort of individuals who were exposed in utero and early life following the Chernobyl accident in April 1986. Data from two interviews conducted in 2012-2017 and in 2018-2022 with mothers, who were pregnant or gave birth shortly after the Chernobyl accident, were analysed. The most reliable answers dealt with various attributes related to residential history. In contrast, the reliability of answers regarding consumption rates of milk from privately owned cows or trade network was moderate, while the agreement in responses for consumption of milk products and leafy vegetables was fair. Information from the two interviews was used to calculate thyroid doses received by the cohort members. Specifically, 'model-based' thyroid doses due to 131I were estimated using input data on individual residential history and food consumption reported during the personal interviews and ecological data (131I ground deposition in the corresponding settlements). In addition, for a subset of cohort subjects (n = 205) whose mothers were measured for 131I thyroid activity, 'measurement-based' thyroid doses were calculated by adjusting the model-based dose using a scaling factor that is defined as the ratio of measured 131I thyroid activity to model-based 131I thyroid activity calculated for the date of measurement. A moderate agreement was observed for total (prenatal and postnatal) model-based thyroid doses due to 131I intake, the arithmetic mean ± standard deviation for the Jaccard similarity coefficient ([Formula: see text]) was 0.45 ± 0.34 (median = 0.39), while measurement-based doses showed a much better agreement with a [Formula: see text] of 0.78 ± 0.29 (median = 0.93). For model-based thyroid doses from external irradiation and from ingestion of 134Cs and 137Cs, [Formula: see text] was 0.82 ± 0.23 (median = 0.90) and 0.84 ± 0.24 (median = 0.96), respectively. Measurement-based doses due to ingestion of radiocaesium isotopes resulted in an almost perfect agreement, [Formula: see text] was 0.91 ± 0.19 (median = 1.0). The present findings suggest that long-term memory recall can be reliable, if a person is asked about unique or important life events, such as pregnancy and childbirth occurring around the time of a nuclear reactor accident. However, the substantial difference (more than 10 times) observed for model-bases doses calculated using the two questionnaires represents an important source of human factor uncertainties that needs to be considered in any dose response analyses. Other lessons learned from this study are that (i) individual measurements of radionuclides in the human body are the most valuable source of information for estimating radiation doses, and (ii) whenever a radiation accident occurs, a sample of affected people should be asked to keep a diary, if at all possible.

High uncertainty in fish bioenergetics impedes precision of fish-mediated carbon transport estimates into the ocean’s twilight zone

Mesopelagic fishes may contribute substantially to marine carbon transport by consuming organic carbon near the surface at night and releasing it in the mesopelagic zone during the day. However, the magnitude and uncertainties associated with this transport are not well understood; fish-mediated carbon flux estimates range from less than 1 % to greater than 30 % of biologically-driven carbon export out of the epipelagic zone. While total mesopelagic fish biomass is an important source of uncertainty, information on fish bioenergetics and movement might also limit the precision of carbon transport estimates. Here, we ask how uncertainties in fish bioenergetics and behaviors affect carbon flux estimation, and which processes contribute most to uncertainty. We used sensitivity analyses to reveal that modeled carbon flux was most sensitive to respiration-related parameters, and per capita fish carbon flux estimates varied six-fold over the range of plausible parameter values. Biomass estimation can add at least ten-fold variation in ecosystem-scale carbon flux estimates. We conclude that it is not currently possible to estimate fish-mediated carbon flux precisely, but estimates may be constrained through future empirical work on the most influential parameters.