Numerical impact of variable volumes of Monte Carlo simulations of heterogeneous conductivity fields in groundwater flow models

Abstract

The knowledge of aquifer systems, their geological setting, their structure, and subsequent modeling is highly uncertain and is usually faced through Monte Carlo-based methods in hydrogeology. One of the most important uncertainty sources for groundwater models is represented by input hydraulic conductivities, related to the aquifer’s structure. There are no specific rules when simulating hydraulic conductivity fields within Monte Carlo frameworks to instruct numerical models, and information about employed conductivity fields and their numerical convergence is often not given. This technical work aims to fill this gap by investigating the impact of employing conductivity information upon different volumes of Monte Carlo simulations applied to a real case study. Thus, this work estimates the minimum volumes of Monte Carlo hydraulic conductivity fields to be employed in groundwater flow models for achieving numerically stable (i) boundary conditions, (ii) global model performances, and (iii) local ones such as simulated hydraulic heads. The present results aim to be indicative of similar hydrogeological settings and will serve as a basis for more complex ones and for investigating transport problems.