Import Prices Research Articles

한국 사업서비스의 경제적 파급효과와 변동요인 분해 분석

Purpose - This paper aims to investigate the economic effects and structural changes of the business service sector in the Korean economy.
 Design/Methodology/Approach - We suggest the spillover effects of the business sectors of not only the Korean economy but also of OECD countries using an input-output model. We suggested production-induced spillovers, value-added spillovers, and labor-induced spillover effects in the business service sector to draw policy implications by comparing Korea and OECD countries.
 Findings - First, by the exogenous specification method for the business services sector, the effects of production inducement increased from 2015 to 2018, but the value-added inducing effects decreased since 2016. The labor-induced effects of the business service sector decreased. Second, the domestic price effects are larger than the import price effects when price rises by 10% in the business service sector. Third, as a result of the inter-industry linkage effects, the business services sector has a characteristic of comparatively larger forward linkage effects than backward linkage effects. Fourth, the growth of the business services sector was found to have driven the domestic final goods demand, final goods import substitution, exports, and technical changes. It was found that the domestic intermediate inputs of business services were replaced by imports.
 Research Implications - As the linkage between the service and manufacturing industries has been deepening, policy efforts are needed to expand R&D and introduce new technologies to strengthen the business services sector competitiveness.

Not the priciest, but the best quality: A new interpretation of high import food price in China

AbstractAgainst the background of rapid increases in food imports, high food import prices have become an important issue for China. This paper first establishes the theoretical relationship between per capita income and import price, then uses a panel data fixed effect model and an instrumental variable estimation based on highly disaggregated firm‐level import data from the General Administration of Customs to analyze food import prices. This paper studies the impact of China's per capita income on the food import price and the key role of imported food quality in price formation for imported food in China. The study finds that the increase in per capita income has a significant, positive influence on the price of imported food in China, but this positive impact on the price is due to quality upgrading. The results suggest that while the increase of per capita income in China has generally pushed up import food prices, it has been mainly due to imports of higher‐quality food. There is no evidence that Chinese consumers are being fleeced by foreign exporting country or are seeking expensive products to flaunt their wealth. Chinese consumers are upgrading their diet with higher‐quality food imports. [EconLit Citations: F13, F14, Q17, Q18].

A Supply Chain-Oriented Model to Predict Crude Oil Import Prices in South Korea Based on the Hybrid Approach

Although numerous studies have explored key variables for forecasting crude oil prices, the role of supply chain factors has often been overlooked. In the face of global risks such as COVID-19, the Russia–Ukraine war, and the U.S.–China trade dispute, supply chain management (SCM) has evolved beyond an individual company’s concern. This research investigates the impact of a supply chain-oriented variable on the forecasting of crude oil import prices in South Korea. Our findings reveal that models incorporating the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) outperform those without it, emphasizing the importance of monitoring supply chain-related variables for stabilizing domestic prices for policy makers. Additionally, we propose a novel hybrid factor-based approach that integrates time series and machine learning models to enhance the prediction performance of oil prices. This endeavor is poised to serve as a foundational step toward developing methodologically sound forecasting models for oil prices, offering valuable insights for policymakers.

The Phillips curve for an open economy: The evolution of inflation processes in Russia

Modern specifications of the Phillips curve are actively used in the study of inflation dynamics, but many of them do not consider the influence of external variables. In this paper, we use a non-linear GMM to estimate the Phillips curve equation for a small open economy which includes the expected change in the exchange rate on Russian data. Estimates show that the assignment of the new head of the Bank of Russia in 2013 and the subsequent transition to the inflation targeting regime significantly reduced the impact of expectations of a change in the ruble exchange rate on inflation which confirms the efficiency of the modification of the monetary policy regime. Another interesting result is that the outbreak of the pandemic has again led to an increase in the impact of the expected change in the exchange rate on inflation which may be a result of increased uncertainty in import prices. The empirical results also show that the pandemic caused a decrease in price rigidity in the Russian economy while the transition to an inflation targeting regime did not affect price rigidity.

Is the EUs Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism Proposal in Accordance with WTO Regulations?

The European Unions proposed Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is a cornerstone initiative of the European Green Deal, designed to address both environmental and economic challenges. At its core, the CBAM seeks to tackle carbon leakage, which occurs when businesses transfer production to countries with laxer carbon regulations. This not only undermines domestic climate policies but also threatens fair competition in global markets. This paper breaks down the dual purposes of CBAM: levelling the economic playing field by adjusting the price of imports based on their carbon content and encouraging nations to adopt stronger climate policies. It critically examines CBAMs alignment with World Trade Organisation (WTO) standards to avoid potential trade conflicts, emphasising the balance between environmental aims and trade norms. Moreover, the paper assesses CBAMs compatibility with global climate goals. Conclusively, while highlighting the mechanisms legislative intricacies, the study proposes refinements ensuring its effectiveness and compliance with international trade rules. This analysis offers policymakers a clear framework for advancing environmentally conscious strategies without violating trade agreements.

Serbian Energy Sector in a Gap Between East and West

Serbia's energy sector is heavily reliant on Russian influence. On the other hand, Serbia's status as a candidate country for joining the European Union (EU) membership requires active working toward diversifying energy sources of supply. In the past decade, Serbia has secured a reduced price for natural gas through a bilateral agreement with Russia, addressing the shortfall in its domestic production. The former agreement priced Russian gas at US$270 per thousand cubic meters and expired in 2021. The new deal links gas prices to crude oil and ranges between US$310 and US$408, maintaining its competitive position as one of Europe's lowest import prices. Furthermore, alongside the new gas pipeline for Russian gas exports, the EU is funding the construction of a new interconnector, both with entry points from Bulgaria. Serbia also faces significant dependence on crude oil, and this reliance is compounded by the inability to import it from Russia any longer. Opposite, Serbia is usually self-sufficient in electricity production which still remains under state ownership. The domestic exploration and processing of oil and gas, as well as the sole underground gas storage facility in Serbia, have partial ownership by Russian Gazprom while the transportation of gas is under the full control of the Serbian government. This Communication about the energy situation in the Republic of Serbia put particular emphasis on the evolving political dynamics in the global energy market with a specific focus on the Russia–Ukraine war. The topic is also linked to the contentious status of the southern Serbian autonomous province, recognized as an independent state by the majority of Western nations but not by Serbia. It is feared that Serbia's energy dependence on Russia could have significant ramifications for its EU candidacy.

An Assessment of Turkish Inflation Dynamics Based on Phillips Curve Variants With Import Price Index

This study aims to present an assessment on Phillips curve models based on import price index in order to account for inflation dynamics in Turkey over the period 2002Q1:2021Q1 by employing state-space approach in potential output computations. In order to deal with the expectation terms in estimating equations and to avoid the associated endogeneity issue, the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique has been used, and two distinct measures of output gap based on Hodrick-Prescott filter and Kalman Filter algorithm have been performed. First, the time varying slope coefficients regarding traditional hybrid Phillips curve (PC) have been estimated through rolling window approach for Turkey. Then, two variants of the hybrid PCs have been formulated by including import price index regressor to all of them and the forecasting performances of the models have been evaluated.

Agroecology and resilience of smallholder food security: a systematic review

Multiple covariate shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine conflict, and pre-existing climate shocks pose serious threats to smallholder livelihoods. The cascading effects of these multiple shocks, including rising prices of fertilizers and food imports, have rekindled interest in the call for a policy shift toward agroecology. Agroecology in this study is defined as a set of practices based on ecological principles of diversity, synergy, and nutrient cycling of agroecosystems, which are capable of enhancing the resilience of smallholder food security while providing ecosystem services. Proponents of the agroecology paradigm argue that it is more sustainable and resilience-enhancing. Yet, the nexus among agroecology, resilience, and food security is less understood in the literature. Therefore, this study aimed to review the existing literature to examine how agroecology could enhance the resilience and food security of smallholders. A systematic literature search was performed on Web of Science, Scopus, and PubMed based on three keywords, viz. agroecology, resilience, and food security. Following the 2020 preferred reporting items on systematic review and meta-analysis (PRISMA) guidelines for systematic literature review, 47 articles were retained for the final review. The results provide empirical evidence that supports the potential of agroecological practices in enhancing the resilience and food security of smallholders. This study proposes a framework that links agroecology, resilience, and food security, showing the interplay among all three dimensions of agroecology—the science, policy, and practices—relevant for successful agroecological transitioning or transformation while identifying gaps for further research.

US – China trade war: economic and legal aftermaths

The China-US trade war, which was the result of differences in the production structure of the two countries, systemic contradictions in foreign economic policy principles and the struggle for global leadership, has a significant impact on global trade flows and market conditions. The article aims to identify the key beneficiaries of the trade war, to assess the situation in individual industry markets, as well as global legal effects, which remain out of academic discourse. US pharmaceutical companies and manufacturers of electronic integrated circuits, diodes, transistors, semiconductors and other high-tech components are the main beneficiaries of the trade war, while US consumers are facing rising import prices. Chile, Malaysia, Argentina, Brazil, Canada are external beneficiaries due to the growth in the supply of agricultural products and metals. Malaysia, Vietnam, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Japan win in electronics, while Vietnam, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Cambodia, as well as India get additional advantages in textile production. The United States aimed at ousting China from the world rare earth metals market, forming an investment coalition consisting of Australia and Japan. The systemic spread of sanctions and trade restrictions is shifting the trade disputes resolution from the global level towards the US legal system, which seems to be relatively more efficient in resolving trade disputes.

Effect of Exchange Rate on Domestic Price Level in Nigeria

Nigeria experienced significant depreciation of her currency during the specified period of this study, mainly due to factors such as falling oil prices, external economic conditions such as slowdown in global economic growth, trade tensions which led to capital outflows from emerging markets including markets in Nigeria, tightening of global monetary policy which affected capital flows to these emerging markets, coupled with domestic macroeconomic challenges like concerns over policy consistency, governance issues and security challenges, capital flight and weakened investors’’ confidence. These conditions collectively created an adverse environment for the Nigerian economy, leading to the depreciation of Naira. Consequently, this study set out to achieve the main objective of investigating on a more recent basis, effects of exchange rate on domestic price level in Nigeria. The period covered was from January 2015 through December 2022. The study adopted the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the variables included consumer price inflation, nominal exchange rate, import prices, international crude oil prices and real output growth. We found insignificant positive impact of the nominal exchange rate on consumer price inflation in Nigeria. The import prices also proved a significant effect on consumer price inflation in Nigeria. the study recommends that Governments at all levels in the country should encourage and support the innovative ideas of business firms and individuals. This will support local production, hence, there can be substitution of imported goods for domestically produced goods and the exchange rate will be stable.

Unequal Expenditure Switching: Evidence from Switzerland

Abstract What are the unequal effects of changes in consumer prices on the cost of living? In the context of changes in import prices (driven by, e.g. changes in trade costs or exchange rates), most analyses focus on variation across households in initial expenditure shares on imported goods. However, the unequal welfare effects of non-marginal foreign price changes also depend on differences in how consumers substitute between imported and domestic goods, on which there is scant evidence. Using data from Switzerland surrounding the 2015 appreciation of the Swiss franc, we provide evidence that lower-income households have higher price elasticities. We quantify the contribution of heterogeneous elasticities for the unequal welfare effects of observed price changes between 2014 and 2015 and for counterfactual shocks to the mean and dispersion of import price changes.

글로벌 공급망 변화에 따른 식량자급률 영향

Purpose: This study analyzes the impact of changes in the global supply chain on South Korea's food self-sufficiency rate under the IPEF, and explores strategies for future food security.
 Research design, data, and methodology: Analysis of the global supply chain's impact utilizes the GTAP model, assuming the effects of import price efficiency (AMS) and export tariffs (TXS) on the food sector, with the assumption of eliminating non-tariff barriers. Additionally, the estimation of medium- and long-term ripple effects is based on the assumption of mobility in production factors.
 Results: The analysis confirms that implementation of the IPEF could lower South Korea's food import prices and diversify the supply chain, providing advantages. However, it also highlights a drawback in which the self-sufficiency rate may decrease if non-tariff barriers are completely eliminated.
 Conclusions: The government should actively engage in IPEF negotiations while requiring a more sophisticated approach in order to adjust non-tariff barriers to an appropriate level.

A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE OF TRADE LIBERALISATION DYNAMICS IN BANGLADESH: IMPACTS OF NATURAL CALAMITY RISK, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVE, RELATIVE PRICE AND TARIFF ON IMPORT DEMAND

Purpose: After the trade liberation, Bangladesh has faced the crisis of trade imbalance. Therefore, trade liberation is considered as the driving force behind the crisis. To investigate this historical allegation, this study aims at analysing the factors that determined the post trade liberalisation aggregate import demand function of Bangladesh.
 
 Design/Methodology/Approach: Based on quarterly data from trade liberalisation period to reaching the economic stability period, 1992Q1 - 2007Q4, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration and an error correction model (ECM) have been utilised to estimate the impacts of natural calamity, gross domestic product, foreign exchange reserve, relative price and tariff on aggregate import demand of Bangladesh.
 Findings: Empirical results revealed that the natural calamity is identified to be nonresponsive to the nation's aggregate import demand both in the short and long run. This indicates that Bangladesh can meet the natural crisis related demand by herself without influencing its aggregate import demand. Results also revealed that the import volume of Bangladesh is cointegrated with relative import price, actual GDP and real foreign exchange reserve of the country. The import demand of the country can largely be described by its real GDP, while it is found inversely associated with relative price ratio in the long run. The long run association among import demand and tariff rate indicates that trade liberalisation has a significant positive impact on the country's aggregate import demand, as well as real foreign exchange reserve, as explained by the reduction in tariff rate.
 
 Research Implication: Developing countries like Bangladesh and the relevant business stakeholders would have considerable implications of such empirical findings with their trade policies, particularly how they should respond to unpredictable scenarios caused by the factors such as natural calamity, foreign exchange reserve, tariff, etc.
 
 Originality Value: The originality of the study lies in its uniqueness in using the historical data and factors that no studies have so far used in analysing the import demand function of Bangladesh.
 
 Keywords: Natural calamity, import demand, foreign exchange reserve, gross domestic product, tariff, trade liberalisation, Bangladesh.
 
 Cite as: Shikha, H. A., Alam, M. M., Murad, M. W., Said, J., & Ahmed, Z. U. (2023). A historical perspective of trade liberalisation dynamics in Bangladesh: impacts of natural calamity risk, gross domestic product, foreign exchange reserve, relative price and tariff on import demand. Journal of Nusantara Studies, 8(TI), 177-208. http://dx.doi.org/10.24200/jonus.vol8issTIpp177-208

Methodology for Estimating the Cost of Construction Equipment Based on the Analysis of Important Characteristics Using Machine Learning Methods

This paper considers the current market pace, which requires a corresponding competitive advantage. This study forecasted the cost of heavy machinery depending on geolocation and essential characteristics by the field of activity. This study analyzes specific categories of heavy machinery for important price characteristics. The study classified them by keywords in the text description as essential characteristics. Accordingly, a dataset was formed based on the data obtained. The research objective is to collect and structure data from web resources for the sale of heavy equipment. This paper describes in detail the preliminary data processing. The main stages of preprocessing are presented in detail: detection and processing of missing data, removing anomalous data, coding of categorical data, and scaling. The method of the average value of a specific grouped set was applied to fill in the gaps according to the characteristics and available data. The mode value from the grouped items was used to fill in the gaps. The interquartile range and standard deviation were used to detect anomalies. We used the Kolmogorov–Smirnov, KS_Test, and Lilliefors tests to check the data for normality. In this study, the assessment of abnormal data was applied separately to each set of grouped data with the same parameters. The study built and analyzed models using machine learning methods (linear and polynomial regression, decision trees, random forest, support vector machine, and neural network). Two data encoding methods were used to achieve maximum model accuracy: Label Encoder and One Hot Encoder. The work of each algorithm is considered on the example of the created dataset. In this study, the parameter used for coding was the geolocation of heavy equipment. The study pays additional attention to the specific characteristics of heavy machinery by the sector of the economy. The existing methods and tools for price forecasting, depending on the specific characteristics of the equipment, were analyzed. The practical significance of this work lies in developing an algorithm for predicting the cost of heavy machinery by assessing several parameters.

Market share of Indonesian mangosteen in China market

The agricultural sector is the leading sector in the Indonesian economy. Mangosteen (Garcinia mangostana L) or commonly called the “queen of fruits” is one of Indonesia’s mainstay exotic fruits. Since the 1970s until now, demand for exports has continued to increase, so that it can be said that the mangosteen fruit is the prima donna of Indonesia’s mainstay exports. One of the biggest export destination countries for Indonesian mangosteen is China. Mangosteen producing countries besides Indonesia, there are Thailand and Malaysia as mangosteen producing countries which export to China. This study aims to examine and analyze the market share of mangosteens from Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia and to see the competitiveness of Indonesian mangosteens in the Chinese market. Market share is an indicator in reviewing the marketing performance of mangosteen fruit products. This market share is usually expressed as a percentage (%), which is used to determine the percentage of potential market for increased Indonesian mangosteen production. In addition, there are import volumes, import prices, and the total import value of mangosteen in the Chinese market in view of competitiveness between countries. This research was conducted using secondary data from 2011-2020.

Who's Most Exposed to International Shocks? Estimating Differences in Import Price Sensitivity across U.S. Demographic Groups

Differences in consumption patterns across demographic groups mean that international price shocks differentially affect such groups. We construct import price indexes for U.S. consumer groups that vary by age, race, sex, education, and urban status. Black consumers and college graduates experienced significantly higher import price inflation from 1996-2018 compared to other groups, such as high school dropouts, rural consumers, and consumers over 60. Sensitivity to international price shocks varies widely, implying movements in exchange rates and foreign prices, both during our sample and during the Covid-19 pandemic, drove sizable differences in import price inflation – and total inflation – across groups.

To drill or, not to drill for natural gas in Bangladesh: A comparative economic and reservoir analysis

With the growing population, Bangladesh is struggling to provide energy to meet the demands of energy-dependent sectors. Bangladesh has a total of 28 gas fields which are lagging in terms of production and fulfilling national demand. The government of Bangladesh has decided to import liquified natural gas (LNG) from the international market to pace up its energy supply. Being subjected to a highly volatile market, LNG prices are unstable and quite high compared to other natural gas alternatives. This paper examines to what extent the economic investments vary between LNG import and drilling for natural gas within Bangladesh. It also analyzes the reservoir types and characteristics of potential hydrocarbon reservoirs in both onshore and offshore Bangladesh to evaluate the prospect of future drillings. The cost analysis estimates that the price of LNG import will be 14 times higher than exploring for and producing from domestic hydrocarbon resources and reserves respectively till 2030. Even in a situation with fewer (than expected) resources in the unexplored potential zones of the country, future investments in new reserves will still be profitable for the long-term development of the energy sector in Bangladesh.

Tariff pass‐through: The case of china's WTO accession

Recent studies on the China–US trade war surprisingly find complete tariff pass‐through into import prices for both China and the United States. This paper provides additional evidence of tariff pass‐through in China. Using firm‐level monthly trade transaction data, we estimate the tariff pass‐through for Chinese imports in the period of WTO accession during 2000–2006. Consistent with evidence during the trade war, tariff pass‐through is also complete for tariff reductions induced by the WTO accession. Structural estimates of export supply elasticity also imply complete tariff pass‐through. Additionally, we find the complete pass‐through result holds regardless of firm ownership types, product end‐use, or China's market share in world imports.

Forecasting of Export Prices of Indian Shrimp: An ANN Approach

Both internal and external externalities create impediments in price determination. This is more so when a product like the Indian-farmed shrimp is entirely an export commodity. Risk and uncertainty loom large over Indian shrimp farmers at both the farm and end-consumer levels. It becomes necessary to minimize the volatility in forecasted prices to help shrimp farmers stabilize their production strategies reasonably well. Export prices of Indian Pacific white and black tiger shrimp for different count sizes were analysed for developing forecasting models for two major international markets, viz., the United States and Japan. Overall, 16 data sets were compiled for developing appropriate price forecasting models. Models were developed to forecast weekly prices of shrimp exports from India and import prices from the United States and Japan. Out of several artificial neural network (ANN) models attempted, the best ANN models were selected based on the Akaike information criterion. The ANN model captured the fibrillations and fluctuations and gave a close prediction with actual values. Since the forecasted values were accurate and in sync with real data, the values can be expected to give a correct representation of the behaviour of the markets.

Globalization and inflation dynamics: evidence from emerging economies

ABSTRACT We test the impact of globalization on the inflation process (global slack hypothesis) for 15 emerging economies over the period (1996Q1-2019Q4). The novelty of this article lies in testing the impact of globalization on the inflation process. We introduce the smooth transition regression (STR) model of the Phillips curve to capture the gradual impacts of globalization on inflation dynamics. The main results are as follows. (i) The asymmetries in inflation exist that are not captured by the linear Phillips curve. (ii) The domestic output gap remains a main driving force of inflation. (iii) Globalization based on the trade weighted average of the domestic output gap does not affect the inflation process compared to other variables like the trade openness, import prices, real exchange rate and international oil prices. Our results yield important implications that the central banks of the emerging economies can stabilize inflation and output gap in an effective way, exploiting the inflation-output gap relationship. When economic expansion of the trading partners increases, the process of inflation dynamics changes in two economies (Brazil, and China).