Implications Of Climate Change Research Articles

Water-level changes impact angler effort in a large lake: Implications for climate change

Climate change is expected to influence aquatic habitats and associated fish populations, yet we know little about the impact on recreational anglers. Our goal was to explore whether interannual fluctuations in waterbody surface area and other explanatory variables could be used as indicators of changes in angler fishing effort. Our approach leveraged a combination of remotely sensed waterbody surface area, environmental and fish population data, and onsite angler survey monitoring data for Devils Lake, North Dakota, USA during the open-water fishing period (May 1st to August 31st) for 9 years (1992–2021). The information was used to develop a dynamic waterbody size-angler effort model. Changes in waterbody surface area reliably predicted changes in angler effort (r2 = 0.60). Increases in waterbody surface area led to increases in angler effort, and decreases in waterbody surface area led to decreases in angler effort. Our findings show promise that remotely sensed fluctuations in waterbody surface area could be used as an indicator of interannual angler effort dynamics. Dynamic waterbody size-angler effort models could provide managers the ability to predict changes in angler effort via climate-related hydrological cycles that affect the size and distribution of waterbodies on the landscape.

Surface carbonate dynamics in a temperate coastal system in the Northern Yellow Sea, China

The carbon sink/source in estuaries and coastal seas may have significant implications for regional climate change. This study investigated seawater carbon dioxide partial pressure (pCO2), aragonite saturation state (Ωarag), and related carbonate parameters in the Yalu River estuary and the adjacent Northern Yellow Sea, China, in September 2023. The results indicate that seawater pCO2 ranged from 261 to 1121 μatm, while Ωarag ranged from 0.49 to 3.34 in the study area. High pCO2 were observed in the estuarine and northwestern areas, whereas low pCO2 were found in the southern offshore area. In the estuarine area, high pCO2 levels were attributed to the input of diluted water from the Yalu River. In the southern areas, low pCO2 were a result of primary production, while community respiration played an important role in increasing seawater pCO2 in the northwestern area. On the other hand, seawater Ωarag was extremely low in the estuarine area, and greater than 1.5 in the southern offshore area. Ωarag in the study area was mainly controlled by water mixing and temperature. The study area acted as a source of atmospheric CO2 with an average air-sea CO2 flux of 6.2 mmol m−2d−1 in autumn, which was relatively high compared with other marginal seas. The high pCO2 and low Ωarag associated with diluted water inputs and community respiration could weaken the ability of coastal oceans to uptake CO2. Therefore, it is crucial to explore ways to reduce CO2 levels in riverine and adjacent coastal seas.

Do climate adaptation programmes potentially exacerbate rural inequality? Identifying beneficiaries of a drought mitigation scheme in Maharashtra, India

ABSTRACT The adverse implications of climate change can exacerbate socially uneven distributions of vulnerability. Therefore, climate adaptation programs are maladaptive if benefits are captured by privileged social groups, contributing to heightened socio-economic inequality and leaving the plight of highly vulnerable population segments unaddressed. This paper examines this potential using the case of Birsa Munda Krishi Kranti Yojana, an irrigation subsidy program for Scheduled Tribe farmers administered by the Government of Maharashtra, India. We investigated this scheme in Talasari block, an impoverished rural sub-administrative area 135 km north of Mumbai. The research shows that benefits from the scheme tended to flow towards more well-off agricultural households, notwithstanding checks-and-balances within the program that sought to prioritise the needs of poorer farmers. In turn, these distributional effects contributed to intensified agrarian class stratification by providing more well-off farmers with enhanced capabilities to respond to climate stresses, shedding important conceptual insights into the interplay of climate change and government policy for class mobility within smallholder and tribal populations. The evidence from this paper highlights the imperative for inclusive agricultural development and raises questions about agricultural subsidy programs as policy levers to address climate adaptation.

Understanding the Economic Drivers of Climate Change in Southeast Asia: An Econometric Analysis

This study analyses macroeconomic trends in Southeast Asian countries and their implications for climate change, focusing on urbanisation, GDP per capita, energy intensity, FDI, inflation, and trade. Using panel data from 1970 to 2020, we investigate climate change drivers across Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand through panel ARDL with PMG and MG analyses, along with Hausman tests. Our results highlight the need for tailored urbanisation policies for sustainability, as the consistent positive correlation between GDPs per capita and emissions, underscores the challenge of decoupling economic growth from emissions. Urbanisation’s varying impact calls for proactive planning, and mixed FDI results suggest nuanced investment approaches aligned with sustainability. Inflation’s negative impact hints at environmental benefits during price increases, necessitating integrated economic and climate policies. The positive relationship between trade openness and emissions emphasises the need for eco-conscious trade agreements to mitigate emissions from industrial activity. Our study stresses the importance of considering macroeconomic heterogeneity in crafting climate policies. Policymakers must adopt multifaceted approaches that prioritise sustainability across economic growth, energy efficiency, technology adoption, and trade to balance development with environmental preservation. This approach enables Southeast Asian countries to contribute effectively to global climate change mitigation.

Exploring Water Source Preferences and Agricultural Water Use in Rural Communities in the Changing Climate in Yobe State

In the face of a changing climate, rural communities in Yobe State, Nigeria, are experiencing increased water scarcity, impacting agricultural productivity and livelihoods. Despite the abundance of studies on rural water use, gaps remain in understanding the interplay between economic factors, traditions, and agricultural practices in shaping these preferences and utilization. Therefore, this study investigates water source preferences and agricultural water use among rural households in Yobe State, examining the implications of climate change on these dynamics. A mixed-methods approach combining surveys, interviews, and focus groups was employed to collect data from 300 rural households. Statistical Analysis, such as logit, and multinomial regressions were used for the data analysis. Results show that rural households prefer traditional water sources like rivers and wells over modern sources like boreholes and piped water. However, climate change has altered the reliability and quality of these traditional sources, forcing households to adapt their water use strategies. The study reveals a significant shift towards groundwater use for irrigation, increasing the risk of over-extraction and land degradation. The findings highlight the need for climate-resilient water management strategies, improved water infrastructure, and sustainable agricultural practices to ensure food security and livelihood resilience in rural Yobe State. This research contributes to understanding the complex relationships between water sources, agricultural water use, and climate change in rural communities, informing policy and interventions to support climate adaptation and sustainable development.

Exploring climate change discourses on the internet: a topic modeling study across ten years

This study examines online discourses about climate change using automated text analysis. Samples of web contributions from various sources, such as blogs, online newspaper articles, readers’ comments, tweets, and others, were collected in 2013, 2019, and 2023. The major themes people talk about when discussing climate change on the internet were identified using structural topic modeling. The study also explored how people discuss climate change differently when using different types of media channels and how the main themes change over time. Six major topics were identified for each point in time; associations between topics and media types were examined. Three topics emerged repeatedly: Dispute over the reality and the implications of climate change, discussions about aspects of the science of climate change, and discussions about causes and consequences of global warming such as sea level rise. In 2019 and 2023, the topic of action (what to do) and the topic of looming disaster showed up repeatedly. Topics limited to one specific corpus were policy discussions, debates about emissions, about renewable energies, about agricultural implications, and expressions of despair. The topical structure could be organized in two general groups, one group containing more science-related topics, and another group containing expressions of dispute, disagreement, and affect. A significant correspondence between media type and prevalent topic could be detected. Media such as Twitter/X and comments are dominated by dispute and despair expressions, whereas media such as blogs and journalistic online articles are primarily concerned with scientific topics in general, as well as with specific topics concerning global warming or renewable energies. In sum, we found noteworthy topical invariances across ten years, and systematic correspondences between topics and media types. The study contributes to the understanding of online discourses about climate change and highlights the role of media type in shaping these discourses.

Identification of genes used by Escherichia coli to mitigate climatic stress conditions

IntroductionIncreasing temperature and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could impact the survival of stress-adapted bacteria. Method and resultsIn this study, RNA sequencing was performed to quantify Escherichia coli BL21 (DE3) gene expression in culture media under environmental temperature (27 °C and 42 °C) and carbon dioxide (0.2 % and 6 % v/v) conditions. Differential gene expression analysis between low temperature and different carbon dioxide conditions revealed up-regulated genes such as ldtC and bioA, optimising cell wall integrity and nutrient uptake. While, the downregulation of genes such as malK suggested a metabolic adaptation. Low temperature and high carbon dioxide levels enhanced bacterial tolerance to environmental stress. Under optimal temperatures, Escherichia coli adapts through various metabolic pathways while engaging in different processes at low temperatures and carbon dioxide levels, with temperature having a greater impact on gene expression than carbon dioxide levels. This study shows that complex metabolic activities are activated when both temperatures and carbon dioxide levels are combinsed, affecting antimicrobial resistance, nutrient acquisition, and adaptation strategies. ConclusionEach condition exhibited mechanisms to enhance cellular resilience and adaptation to stress, focusing on cellular integrity, optimising energy utilisation, and activating stress response pathways. Impact statementThe findings stress the importance of continued research to understand the implications of climate change on microbial transcriptomes comprehensively.

Increasing intensity of enterovirus outbreaks projected with climate change

Pathogens of the enterovirus genus, including poliovirus and coxsackieviruses, typically circulate in the summer months suggesting a possible positive association between warmer weather and transmission. Here we evaluate the environmental and demographic drivers of enterovirus transmission, as well as the implications of climate change for future enterovirus circulation. We leverage pre-vaccination era data on polio in the US as well as data on two enterovirus A serotypes in China and Japan that are known to cause hand, foot, and mouth disease. Using mechanistic modeling and statistical approaches, we find that enterovirus transmission appears positively correlated with temperature although demographic factors, particularly the timing of school semesters, remain important. We use temperature projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to simulate future outbreaks under late 21st-century climate change for Chinese provinces. We find that outbreak size increases with climate change on average, though results differ across climate models depending on the degree of wintertime warming. In the worst-case scenario, we project peak outbreaks in some locations could increase by up to 40%.

Fit for purpose? Climate change, security and IR

As the contributions to this special issue suggest, IR has had a problematic relationship with environmental issues. Indeed it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that IR has treated environmental change almost as a distraction from important concerns of global politics, and gives us few significant resources for understanding these challenges or addressing them effectively. This is perhaps most starkly evident in the subfield of security studies, despite increasing recognition that environmental change warrants consideration as a security issue. This paper examines this engagement with a particular focus on climate change. Ultimately, the paper advances two arguments. First, examinations of the climate change–security relationship located in traditional security studies struggle to come to terms with the nature of the Anthropocene challenge and more specifically with the questions of who needs securing; what the nature of the threat posed is; and who is capable of or responsible for addressing this threat. Second, however, we can see progressive potential in engagement with the security implications of climate change in IR where such scholarship parts ways with traditional accounts of security; does not allow existing configurations of power to define the conditions for thinking about agency and sites of politics; and reflexively and self-consciously draws on insights from beyond the IR discipline. The increasing volume of work consistent with this more critical engagement is grounds for hope for this field of study in engaging productively even with a challenge as complex and significant as climate change.

Energetic sustainability in the Amazon region: Exploring impacts, environmental solutions, and rebound effect analysis

The Amazon, a vital global ecosystem, renowned for biodiversity and climate regulation, faces unprecedented challenges due to escalating non-renewable energy consumption. This article sheds light on climate change's implications, exploring the intricate interplay in Amazon sustainability. The focus is on comprehending the impacts and exploring potential solutions to mitigate adverse effects. The research spans from 2002 to 2022, covering countries such as Brazil, Bolivia, Colombia, Peru, Venezuela, and Ecuador. This broad geographic and temporal scope provides valuable insights into the dynamic changes occurring in the Amazon region over the years. Employing a robust methodological approach, double log regression analysis is utilized as a powerful tool for a precise examination of the complex relationships between energy consumption, environmental preservation, and sustainable development. The study incorporates various estimators, including Non-Renewable Energy (EnR), Forest Area (FA), Forest Income (FI), Endangered Mammals (EM), Endangered Birds (EB), Endangered Fish (EF), Endangered Plants (EP), Freshwater Capitation (FC), Greenhouse Gases (GHG), Socioeconomic Factors (SF), Water Availability (WA). This comprehensive list enhances clarity and transparency, ensuring a thorough understanding of the research methods. The study uncovers the wide-ranging impact of growing non-renewable energy demand on Amazon biodiversity, forests, and species vulnerability, driven by direct rebound effects. It highlights both the backfire and super conservation effects, emphasizing the need for strategic, holistic approaches to energy and environmental management. Navigating this balance, the research informs decisions for a sustainable Amazon future, fostering awareness and inspiring action toward environmental stewardship and global conservation.

The Effect of Climate Change Threat on Public Attitudes towards Ethnic and Religious Minorities and Climate Refugees

How does climate change threat affect attitudes towards ethnic and religious minorities and climate change refugees? We show that threatening climate change can have deep psychological effects even among social majority groups in relatively prosperous and peaceful societies. Using three survey experiments with self-identified White British participants ( N = 616, N = 587, and N = 535), we demonstrate that social majority members who are exposed to threatening information about climate change (vs. neutral information) and, at the same time, feel little national efficacy over climate change, evaluate more negatively certain ethnic and religious minorities, especially Muslims and Pakistanis. We found the same trend in the evaluation of climate refugees, although it reached statistical significance only in one of the experiments. We explain these reactions as pertaining to groups that are perceived as threatening the salient ingroup and its collective agency. Our research significantly contributes to the literature on the social and political implications of (climate change) threat, especially by focusing on boundary conditions, namely the perception of collective control in case of complex and large threats.

Adapting to the shifting landscape: Implications of climate change for malaria control: A review.

Malaria, a global public health challenge, continues to affect millions of lives, particularly in regions where its transmission is endemic. The interplay between climate change and malaria dynamics has emerged as a critical concern, reshaping the landscape of this vector-borne disease. This review publication, titled "Adapting to the shifting landscape: Implications of climate change for malaria control," explores the multifaceted relationship between climate change and the control of malaria. The paper begins by dissecting the influence of climate change on malaria dynamics, including alterations in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic factors that impact the habitat and life cycle of malaria vectors. It delves into the evolving ecology and behavior of malaria vectors in response to changing climatic conditions, emphasizing the importance of understanding these adaptations. As a response to this shifting landscape, the review discusses adaptive strategies for malaria control, ranging from vector control measures to the utilization of climate data in early warning systems. Community engagement and education are highlighted as essential components of these strategies, recognizing the vital role of local communities in effective malaria control efforts. The paper also identifies future directions and research needs, underscoring the importance of staying ahead of the evolving climate-malaria relationship. This review underscores the urgency of adapting to the changing landscape of malaria transmission driven by climate change. It emphasizes the significance of proactively addressing climate-related challenges to enhance malaria control and protect the health and well-being of vulnerable populations.

Late Triassic (Norian) strontium and oxygen isotopes from the Baoshan block, southwestern China: Possible causes and implications for climate change

The Norian Stage (Late Triassic) has long been regarded as an interval of stable climates, but, in fact, there are only sparse studies of the paleoclimate variations during this longest (>20 Myr) stage of the Phanerozoic. Here, oxygen and strontium isotopes have been measured on conodont apatite from the open-marine shelf succession at the Xiquelin section (Baoshan block, Yunnan Province, China). Magnetostratigraphy linked to conodont biostratigraphy indicates that the succession was deposited during the Sevatian substage, upper Norian. The δ18Oapatite values from conodonts indicate that low-latitude average sea-surface temperatures in eastern Tethys were ∼32 °C during the earliest Sevatian, cooled to ∼25 °C through the middle Sevatian, and then increased again to ∼29 °C by the late Sevatian. The seawater 87Sr/86Sr values maintained a high plateau through the entire Sevatian, with very little variation between inferred warm and cool episodes. The possible explanation for the observed trends in sea-surface temperature and 87Sr/86Sr during Sevatian is an enhanced weathering of silicates exposed during the closure of the Paleo-Tethys Ocean at the zenith of Pangea supercontinent assembly.

Germination response to winter temperature changes with seed shape and length of temperature exposure.

In many regions, the climate is changing faster during winter than during the other seasons, and a loss of snow cover combined with increased temperature variability can expose overwintering organisms to harmful conditions. Understanding how species respond to these changes during critical developmental times, such as seed germination, helps us assess the ecological implications of winter climate change. To address this concern, we measured the breaking of seed dormancy and cold tolerance of temperate grassland species in the lab and field. In the lab, we ran germination trials testing the tolerance of 17 species to an extreme cold event. In the field, we deployed seeds of two species within a snow manipulation experiment at three locations and measured germination success biweekly from seeds subjected to ambient and reduced snow cover from winter into spring. From lab trials, cold tolerance varied among species, with seed germination decreasing <10%-100% following extreme cold events. Cold tolerance was related to seed traits, specifically less round seeds, seeds that required cold stratification, and seeds that mature later in the season tended to be more impacted by extreme cold temperatures. This variation in seed cold tolerance may contribute to altered community composition with continued winter climate change. In the field, germination increased through late winter, coinciding with the accumulation of days where temperatures were favorable for cold stratification. Through spring, germination success decreased as warm temperatures accumulated. Collectively, species-specific seed cold tolerances and mortality rates may contribute to compositional changes in grasslands under continued winter climate change.

Probabilistic analysis of drought impact on wheat yield and climate change implications

Drought is projected to intensify under warming climate and will continuously threaten global food security. Assessing the risk of yield loss due to drought is key to developing effective agronomic options for farmers and policymakers. However, little has been known about determining the likelihood of reduced crop yield under different drought conditions and defining thresholds that trigger yield loss at the regional scale in Australia. Here, we estimated the dependence of yield variation on drought conditions and identified drought thresholds for 12 Australia's key wheat producing regions with historical yield data by developing bivariate models based on copula functions. These identified drought thresholds were used to investigate drought statistics under climate change with an ensemble of 36 climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We found that drought-induced yield loss was region-specific. The drought thresholds leading to the same magnitude of wheat yield reduction were smaller in regions of southern Queensland and larger in Western Australia mainly due to different climate and soil conditions. Drought will be more frequent and affect larger areas under future warming climates. Based on our results, we advocate for more effective crop management options, particularly in regions where wheat yield is vulnerable to drought in Australia. This will mitigate potential drought impacts on crop production and safeguard global food security.

Challenges for ticks and tick-borne diseases research in Southeast Asia: Insight from the first international symposium in Cambodia.

Ticks, as critical vectors of a variety of pathogens, pose a significant public health challenge globally. In Southeast Asia (SEA), ticks are responsible for transmitting a diverse array of pathogens affecting humans and animals. The geographical and ecological diversity of SEA provides a unique environment that supports a wide range of tick species, which complicates the management and study of tick-borne diseases (TBDs). This article synthesizes findings from the first international symposium on ticks and TBDs in Southeast Asia, held in Phnom Penh on June 22 and 23, 2023. It highlights regional efforts to understand tick ecology and pathogen transmission. This paper proposes to present a summary of the various presentations given during the symposium following 3 main parts. The first one is devoted to the state of knowledge regarding ticks and TBDs in SEA countries, with presentations from 6 different countries, namely Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. The second part focuses on the development of new research approaches on tick-borne pathogens (TBPs) and TBDs. The last part is a summary of the round table discussion held on the final day, with the aim of defining the most important challenges and recommendations for researches on TBP and TBD in the SEA region. Key topics discussed include advancements in diagnostic tools, such as MALDI-TOF MS and proteomics, and the development of sustainable strategies for tick management and disease prevention. The symposium facilitated the exchange of knowledge and collaborative networks among experts from various disciplines, promoting a unified approach to tackling TBDs in the region. The symposium underscored the need for enhanced surveillance, diagnostics, and inter-regional cooperation to manage the threat of TBDs effectively. Recommendations include the establishment of a regional database for tick identification and the expansion of vector competence studies. These initiatives are crucial for developing targeted interventions and understanding the broader implications of climate change and urbanization on the prevalence of TBDs.

Recovery of metabolites via subnivean photosynthesis in Arctic tundra plants: Implications for climate change

AbstractPlants have evolved numerous strategies for surviving the harsh conditions of the Arctic. One strategy for Arctic evergreen and semi‐evergreen species is to photosynthesize beneath the snow during spring. However, the prevalence of this photosynthesis and how recent photosynthates are used is still unknown. Here we ask, how is newly acquired carbon beneath the snow allocated? To answer this question, we delivered isotopically labeled 13CO2 to tussock tundra plants before snowmelt. Soluble sugars and starches were preferentially enriched with 13C in all five species tested, with lipids having comparatively low 13C enrichment. These results provide evidence of the recovery of metabolites used over the long winter. Additionally, these new soluble sugars may function in photoprotection and cold tolerance as plants release from snow cover. Climate change, by reducing the duration of subnivean photosynthesis of these species, will limit metabolite production before snowmelt, which may lead to a reduction in the ability of these species to compete effectively during the growing season, potentially leading to changes in community structure.

Climate change and terrorism: Exploring Boko Haram’s recruitment in Nigeria

The typical threats to human security such as terrorism and insurgency as witnessed in Nigeria have attracted global attention. However, the security implications of climate change as they impact terrorism are of increasing relevance to international peace and security. Since the inception of Boko Haram in Nigeria in 2009, more than 40,000 people have been killed by the terrorist group and over two million displaced from their homes. The group has at various points cashed in on the drastic effects of climate change to recruit foot soldiers, male and female alike, and their operations have continued to have devastating impacts on the security of lives and socio-economic development of Nigeria. This study, therefore, examined the impact of climate change on Boko Haram’s recruitment drive in Nigeria. It adopted Delanda’s account of assemblages and social complexity to draw the connections between climate change, terrorism and Boko Haram’s recruitment in Nigeria. The study relied largely on data from secondary sources collected through the documentary method. It examined how climate change-induced environmental stress such as drought, desertification and shrinkage of Lake Chad create conditions that enable the recruitment of terrorists. It argued that climate change has exacerbated the loss or collapse of rural livelihoods in Nigeria’s northeast, heightening affected populations’ vulnerability to recruitment by Boko Haram.

The Role of Political Uncertainty in Climate-Related Disaster Impacts on Financial Markets

This research presents a new model for analyzing the effects of government policies on climatic disasters on financial markets. Using Fama–MacBeth rolling regressions and the construction of model-proposed risk factors, three major risk factors are found to be significant in explaining stock returns. First, there is the risk of climate disasters. Second, there is the risk of uncertainty regarding government actions. Third, there is the risk of government response to climatic disasters. Through the increase in the cost of capital from climate disasters and the uncertainty of government response, the future cost of capital is higher, leading to less investment and lower productivity. However, the government’s actions to compensate for losses due to climate damage help offset the damages from disasters. This implies that the previous estimates of economic damages due to climate risk have been underestimated. This work adds to the literature by providing a fuller estimate of the economic implications of climate change

Impact of Biomass Burning, Wildfires, and Wind Events on Aerosol Optical Depth: Implications for Climate Change

In this article, we describe multiannual variations of the atmospheric aerosol optical depth values in the widely understood area of the Baltic Sea. We present the trends in the changes and depict unusual aerosol situations. As a result of analyses, we focus on 2019, since unusually high values of aerosol optical depth were recorded in several stations around the Baltic. We match the high aerosol levels with an unusually high number of wildfires across Europe in spring and summer, which emitted large quantities of aerosols into the atmosphere that were distributed over vast European areas in part by the wind. We then connect this case with the climate change consequences. Since aerosols influence the radiative budget of the planet by directly affecting the atmospheric radiation budget, it is obvious that human well-being is in danger due to wildfires, as well as from the atmospheric perspective. Climate change will lead to more frequent fires; thus, humans need to develop solutions to decrease the risk of fire outbreaks.