Increasing intensity of enterovirus outbreaks projected with climate change

Abstract

Pathogens of the enterovirus genus, including poliovirus and coxsackieviruses, typically circulate in the summer months suggesting a possible positive association between warmer weather and transmission. Here we evaluate the environmental and demographic drivers of enterovirus transmission, as well as the implications of climate change for future enterovirus circulation. We leverage pre-vaccination era data on polio in the US as well as data on two enterovirus A serotypes in China and Japan that are known to cause hand, foot, and mouth disease. Using mechanistic modeling and statistical approaches, we find that enterovirus transmission appears positively correlated with temperature although demographic factors, particularly the timing of school semesters, remain important. We use temperature projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to simulate future outbreaks under late 21st-century climate change for Chinese provinces. We find that outbreak size increases with climate change on average, though results differ across climate models depending on the degree of wintertime warming. In the worst-case scenario, we project peak outbreaks in some locations could increase by up to 40%.