Impending Crisis Research Articles

The Politics of Resilience

The integration of the resilience concept into contemporary international development agendas is increasingly gaining acclamation amongst policy makers and international development agencies. It has been conceived as an operational trajectory for shock and crisis management especially for socio-economically vulnerable and deprived communities in Africa and beyond, and has surpassed boundaries, becoming more visible in various domains of development intervention including health, financial and environmental discourses. This paper discusses succinctly the malleability of the resilience paradigm within the sustainable development discourse and seeks to underscore the propensity of resilience to navigate across sectors by identifying the various contextualization and pathways in which it intersects with development. It highlights some positive variables of resilience but also denotes some contextual shortcomings, precisely the assumption that the concept is a constructive approach to poverty alleviation. However, the paper concludes that the in depth application of resilience with regards to context is imperative for a more sustainable anticipation of impending threats and crisis for vulnerable communities and societies.
 

Direct Conversion of Natural Date Pulp to Hierarchically Porous Carbon Spheres As Efficient and Stable Oxygen-Reduction Electrocatalysts

The impending global energy crisis and environmental concerns associated with the excessive use of fossil fuels have prompted us to explore highly sustainable alternative energy sources as well as highly efficient eco-friendly energy conversion and storage technologies. Fuel cells are electrochemical energy conversion devices with energy conversion efficiencies two times greater than those of conventional fire powered plants. Such electrochemical devices normally involve an oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) over their positive electrode; unfortunately, the sluggish ORR kinetics at room temperature significantly limit their efficiency and performance, and thus have become a major obstacle towards their practical applications. The development of efficient electrocatalysts for promoting the ORR is the key to realize the practical use of such advanced technologie. Carbon materials are promising alternatives to noble metal catalysts for oxygen reduction reactions (ORR) in energy conversion devices. Here we report hierarchically porous carbon spheres with a trace amount of encapsulated cobalt as highly active and stable electrocatalysts for the ORR under both alkaline and acidic conditions. We use renewable natural date pulp as the carbon precursor and a facile hydrothermal carbonization method with in situ formed cobalt as a template for the synthesis. These catalysts yield competitive catalytic activity (a small Tafel slope of 53 mV dec-1) and superb durability and methanol tolerance compared to the benchmark Pt/C catalyst in alkaline electrolyte. Even under harsh acidic conditions, the catalysts deliver a satisfactory catalytic performance and good stability, indicating their extensive applicability. This performance is mainly attributed to the rich surface defects and the hierarchically porous structure that provide abundant active sites for the ORR. In situ formed cobalt nanoparticles are critical to the creation of the abundant mesopores, high specific surface area, and catalytically active defect sites over the carbon material. The encapsulated cobalt residual further enhances the ORR activity of the catalysts, while having a negligible effect on the cost due to its trace level (0.2 at.%).

A laggard in good times and bad? The limited impact of EU membership on Ireland’s climate change and environmental policy

ABSTRACTIreland has remained broadly immune to pressure for convergence resulting from EU membership in the fields of climate and environmental policy. Neither the Global Financial Crisis nor the impending ecological crisis has significantly impacted its status as a ‘laggard’ country when it comes to implementation of EU legislation and policies in the field of climate change and environment. The reasons suggested for this are similar to those in other EU states where European environmental law has been inadequately implemented: lack of institutional capacity on accession, mismatch between national and supranational regulatory structures, significant veto players, and rapid economic growth. In the field of climate policy, Ireland repeatedly tops lists for worst performance among EU member states, though there has been some success in the field of renewable energy. While Brexit represents a new crisis for both Ireland and the EU, and the UKs departure may well have implications for EU climate policy, we argue that it is unlikely to impact on the approach taken in Ireland. The few recent positive developments in the field of climate policy appear to be driven by increased domestic concerns about the impact of climate change, as opposed to the impact of EU membership.

SOP myasthenic crisis

IntroductionThe overall prevalence of myasthenic crisis is quite low at 30/1 million inhabitants because myasthenia gravis is a rare disease per se. But it should be noted that 15–20% of patients with myasthenia gravis experience at least one crisis in their lives. Most often, the crisis occurs within the first 2 years of the disease or is even the first manifestation of a yet undiagnosed myasthenia gravis in up to 20%.Median duration of MC is about 2 weeks (median 12–14 days of ventilation) under sufficient treatment, but prolonged courses are not uncommon and often due to comorbidities and complications, so that about 20% are still mechanically ventilated after 1 month.The lifetime risk of recurrence of a crisis is approx. 30%. Data on mortality differ between about 2–5% to even more than 16%. Lethal outcomes are almost never caused by the crisis itself, but because comorbidities or complications eventually become limiting.DefinitionMyasthenic crisis (MC) is the life-threatening maximal manifestation of myasthenia gravis (MG) necessitating mechanical ventilation, supportive feeding and (neuro-)intensive care. Weakness may develop within minutes to days and encompass flaccid tetraparesis with immobility, severe dyspnea, respiratory insufficiency and aspiration. Globus events may be life threatening due to rapidly exhausting coughing and swallowing.First steps: immediate measures● Check and secure vital functionsComments● not applicableConclusionThe main symptom of (imminent) myasthenic crisis is the rapidly progressive weakness of the respiratory and bulbar muscles, which lead to a decompensation with aspiration and respiratory insufficiency. Clinical examination and clinical history should lead early to the diagnosis of MG with (impending) crisis. The detection of red flags and the dynamic deterioration of symptoms entail admission to the intensive care unit. Due to bulbar symptoms with aspiration and/or respiratory insufficency, early intubation to secure the airway is essential. Therapy includes symptomatic treatment with pyridostigmine or neostigmine and acute causal treatment by immunoadsorption/plasmapheresis or alternatively with immunoglobulins. If used early, intubation may still be prevented and clinical improvement can be achieved within a few days. At the same time, immunosuppression with corticosteroids and azathioprine should be initiated or optimized. For escalation rituximab is an option. The early diagnosis and consequent treatment of infections and other complications such as delirium influence the further course.

Coalition formation strategies for cooperative operation of multiple microgrids

Energy cooperation among microgrids (MGs) by enabling local energy exchanges among them, is an appealing new solution to cope up with the impending energy crises. Specifically, energy can be wheeled among MGs to supply their deficits using the surplus of others. This study, therefore, presents an interactive model for the coordinated energy management of a distribution network with clustered MGs. Each MG not only schedules its local power generation and load consumption but also trades energy with neighbouring MGs in the distribution network. The power exchanges among the MGs, and that between the MGs and the distribution network are coordinated using a cooperative coalitional game theoretic approach. The framework aims at alleviating the distribution power losses while ensuring that all system variables, such as bus voltages, line flows, and reactive power requirements are within specified limits. Various system intermittencies are captured through scenario generation and reduction processes. Case studies on the IEEE-33 bus and PG & E-69 bus test systems with multiple coalitions forming MGs demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in improving network payoffs, voltage profiles and alleviating the network losses and curtailment of available non-dispatchable resources.

The influence of grasshopper (Schistocerca gregaria) powder enrichment on bread nutritional and sensorial properties

The world is facing an impending food crisis by 2050, and insects are a possible sustainable and nutritional solution for this problem. As a result, ways of integrating them into common foods are investigated. The objective of this study is to examine the rheological properties, nutritional value and sensorial quality of bread enriched with 100, 200 g/kg grasshopper powder (GP) and 200 g/kg defatted grasshopper powder (DGP). GP contains 350 g/kg protein and 130 g/kg fat and has higher water and oil holding capacity values compared to wheat flour. The addition of GP decreased the specific volume of grasshopper-based bread and resulted in softer texture. Moreover, the inclusion of 200 g/kg GP to the bread recipe increased the protein content by up to 60%. Sensory panel scored 100 g/kg enriched grasshopper bread similarly to wheat bread, while bread enriched with 200 g/kg received a lower score mainly due to its distinctive odor. According to the results, GP may serve as a supplement bread up to 100 g/kg without alterations in sensorial aspects.

MON-069 OVERCOMING SHORTAGE OF PERITONEAL DIALYSIS SOLUTION IN NEPAL

Shortage of medical supplies has a negative impact on the health of people. Though manufacturers and suppliers apprehend shortages due to increased demands, it may be inevitable in circumstances such as war, earthquakes, and hurricane. There are some circumstances when companies halt production for various reasons. Continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) as an option for end-stage kidney disease patient in Nepal started in 2007. The PD Solution was purchased from Baxter, India. The supply was severely disrupted twice in 2018 (for 45 days in February-March and 58 days in May-June of 2018) when Baxter, India halted its production. To address this shortage, suppliers had to purchase from Baxter, Phillipines. This study describes the impact of the shortage and how the patients overcome the period of shortage In this retrospective study after the period of the shortage, the patients were interviewed face to face or on phone by a single CAPD coordinator. Those willing to give their information for the study were recruited. Name, age, sex, the indication of CAPD, PD vintage, actual prescription and modified prescription, the source of PD solution at the time of shortage, manipulations, switch to hemodialysis, and any complications encountered were noted. There were 113 patients between the age of 9 and 82 years (mean 51 +/- 1.76 years) who participated in the study. Sixty-eight were male patients and 45 female patients who were registered at 10 different centers of 6 cities. Most of the patients (74.33%) claimed to have been self-motivated for CAPD while 21.24% of the patients had taken CAPD as their hemodialysis access were exhausted. Three patients had started CAPD within a month while one had been on CAPD for last 7 years. Most of the patients (85.84%) of the patient were performing 3 bag/ day exchange before the crisis. 9.73% of the patients were performing 4 bags/day. All the patients seemed to be unaware of the impending crisis of PD solution and running out of fluid for a few days to weeks. Average number of days patients did not have adequate PD solution was 24.58 +/- 1.42 days. All of the patients reduced the number of exchanges per day to minimize the number of bags used. Three patients purchased Icodextrin though it is not readily available and expensive than dextrose-based PD Solution. At the time of crisis, 23.89% of the patients had turned to their doctor for solution while 19.47% consulted their CAPD coordinator. Two patient reported burrowing from other patients or hospital. Fifty-four patients purchased from alternative sources including black-market and from the neighboring country, India. When the modified CAPD prescription seemed inadequate, the patient were put on hemodialysis. Nine patients received few sessions of hemodialysis to bridge the gap. Out of 113 patients, 30 patients had to be admitted for 8.8 days due to different complications. Some of the complications included peritonitis, fluid overload, dyselectrolytemia, and death. Nine of the patients had died during the period. The incidence of peritonitis had also increased with 16 patients having peritonitis during the period of crisis. Shortage of PD solution should be perceived and prepared for. Crisis due to the shortage of PD solution is detrimental to the health of the patient leading to different complications and even death of the patients.

The Law (and Politics) of Forced Displacement: Towards a History of the Present

Coerced transfer of populations, it is often noted, is illegal under international law. This talk aims to challenge this basic premise. A certain tradition of international law fosters a much more ambiguous position towards the collective transfer of groups. Through several types of instruments allowing for collective transfer, historical and contemporary, international law has constantly played a key role in the transnational governance of populations. It is worthwhile to reevaluate the history of international law as a mode of population governance. With multiple unfolding and impending climate crises, the ambiguous role of international law in the mass movement of populations is likely to become ever-more-important.

Expanding global commodities trade and consumption place the world’s primates at risk of extinction

As a consequence of recent human activities. populations of approximately 75% of the world’s primates are in decline, and more than 60% of species (n = 512) are threatened with extinction. Major anthropogenic pressures on primate persistence include the widespread loss and degradation of natural habitats caused by the expansion of industrial agriculture, pastureland for cattle, logging, mining, and fossil fuel extraction. This is the result of growing global market demands for agricultural and nonagricultural commodities. Here, we profile the effects of international trade of forest-risk agricultural and nonagricultural commodities, namely soybean, oil palm, natural rubber, beef, forestry products, fossil fuels, metals, minerals, and gemstones on habitat conversion in the Neotropics, Africa, and South and Southeast Asia. Total estimated forest loss for these regions between 2001 and 2017 was ca 179 million ha. The average percent of commodity-driven permanent deforestation for the period 2001–2015 was highest in Southeast Asia (47%) followed by the Neotropics (26%), South Asia (26%), and Africa (7%). Commodities exports increased significantly between 2000 and 2016 in all primate range regions leading to the widespread conversion of forested land to agricultural fields and an increase in natural resource extraction. In 2016, US $1.1 trillion of natural-resource commodities were traded by countries in primate range regions. The Neotropics accounted for 41% of the total value of these exports, Southeast Asia for 27%, Africa 21%, and South Asia 11%. Major commodity exporters in 2016 were Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and South Africa, countries of high primate diversity and endemism. Among the top 10 importers were China, the US, Japan, and Switzerland. Primate range countries lag far behind importer nations in food security and gross domestic product per capita, suggesting that trade and commodity-driven land-use have done little to generate wealth and well-being in primate habitat countries. Modeling of land-use and projected extinction of primate species by 2050 and 2100 under a business as usual scenario for 61 primate range countries indicate that each country is expected to see a significant increase in the number of species threatened with extinction. To mitigate this impending crisis, we advocate the “greening” of trade, a global shift toward a low-meat diet, reduced consumption of oil seed, diminished use of tropical timber, fossil fuels, metals, minerals, and gemstones from the tropics, accompanied by a stronger and sustained global resolve to regulate and reverse the negative impacts of growing unsustainable global demands and commodity trade on income inequality, and the destruction of primates and their habitats.

Breaking the silence: Burnout among gynecologic oncology trainees is an impending crisis

Breaking the silence: Burnout among gynecologic oncology trainees is an impending crisis

Resistant Organisms and Their Approach to Management in Clinical and Emergency Care

This review describes the multi-drug-resistant pathogens that lead to the most life-threatening infections, and the current state of prevention and management strategies used in clinical and emergency care. New methods of early detection and screening, novel combination antibiotics, and adjuvant therapy with a better understanding of the mechanisms employed by multi-drug-resistant bacteria are in the forefront of this impending public health crisis. The incidence of infections caused by multi-drug-resistant pathogens is rising. A robust and concerted international response from the medical and public health communities is needed. The early identification of antibiotic-resistant pathogens and the appropriate targeted antibiotic therapy are the major determinants of decreased mortality. Antibiotic stewardship to slow the rate of antibiotic resistance and research and development of novel antibiotics must be encouraged and supported financially. Providers must also be vigilant with hand hygiene and environmental decontamination in all healthcare settings.

Rethinking Automated Investment Adviser Disclosure

Today, investment advisers, including robo-advisers, push dense disclosures to consumer investors who may not be able to fully comprehend their import. Tomorrow, robo-advisers and their innovative technology, if embraced by regulators and consumers, can facilitate and cultivate a trusted collaborative relationship between investor and adviser where the adviser learns from the investor and provides education tailored to the investor, helping to solve vexing consumer protection issues and lessen the impending retirement crisis. More and more of us are comfortable making decisions without human involvement and entirely through a digital interface. Despite consumers’ increasing comfort relying upon machines to direct and guide their decisions, most Americans nevertheless lack basic foundational knowledge in finance and investing. Even those Americans who are able to save for retirement lack financial sophistication and may not be able to understanding the complex products in which they are invested. Robo advice may not be the solution for these problems, as robo-advisers present a potential black box problem where the digital investment advisers may not be capable of explanation beyond the information input and advice output. In such a world, it is not only the new technology that should be questioned. The existing standards through which the new technology is regulated should similarly be explored. An understanding of potential benefits and potential harms may provide lessons that better allow us to protect consumer investors and better prepare for the so-called retirement crisis. This essay explores the parameters of the pre-existing regulatory regime as applied to a new landscape of investing with a focus on the key regulatory tool of disclosure. This short essay examines the challenges of delivering appropriate disclosures in a new world of robo-advisory advice. It suggests a reconceptualization of the aim of disclosure to capitalize on robo-advisers’ ability to truly know their clients and shift the burden of investor education from the customer to a fiduciary level adviser capable of tailoring advice and education to each investor at a level she is capable of understanding. The essay concludes with a recommendation: robo-advisers and investor collaboration via an active and iterative disclosure regime that encourages investor comprehension, understanding, and learning.

A global risk assessment of primates under climate and land use/cover scenarios.

Primates are facing an impending extinction crisis, driven by extensive habitat loss, land use change and hunting. Climate change is an additional threat, which alone or in combination with other drivers, may severely impact those taxa unable to track suitable environmental conditions. Here, we investigate the extent of climate and land use/cover (LUC) change-related risks for primates. We employed an analytical approach to objectively select a subset of climate scenarios, for which we then calculated changes in climatic and LUC conditions for 2050 across primate ranges (N=426 species) under a best-case scenario and a worst-case scenario. Generalized linear models were used to examine whether these changes varied according to region, conservation status, range extent and dominant habitat. Finally, we reclassified primate ranges based on different magnitudes of maximum temperature change, and quantified the proportion of ranges overall and of primate hotspots in particular that are likely to be exposed to extreme temperature increases. We found that, under the worst-case scenario, 74% of Neotropical forest-dwelling primates are likely to be exposed to maximum temperature increases up to 7°C. In contrast, 38% of Malagasy savanna primates will experience less pronounced warming of up to 3.5°C. About one quarter of Asian and African primates will face up to 50% crop expansion within their range. Primary land (undisturbed habitat) is expected to disappear across species' ranges, whereas secondary land (disturbed habitat) will increase by up to 98%. With 86% of primate ranges likely to be exposed to maximum temperature increases >3°C, primate hotspots in the Neotropics are expected to be particularly vulnerable. Our study highlights the fundamental exposure risk of a large percentage of primate ranges to predicted climate and LUC changes. Importantly, our findings underscore the urgency with which climate change mitigation measures need to be implemented to avert primate extinctions on an unprecedented scale.

Predicting currency crisis in Indonesia based on real output and Indonesia Composite Index (ICI) indicators

The currency crisis that occurred in the middle of 1997, 1998 and 4th quarter of 2008 was caused by disturbances in the currency system. When there is disturbance in the system then the cause indicators will experience fluctuations and changes in conditions. High fluctuation can be modeled using volatility model, while the changes in condition can be modeled using Markov switching model. Therefore, combination of volatility and Markov switching models is very appropriate to explain the crisis. In this paper, we use real output and ICI indicators on the period of January 1990 until December 2016 to explain the crisis as well as to forecast the possibility of an impending crisis. The results show that the appropriate model is ARCH (1) and Markov switching with 3 states, called SWARCH (3,1) model. This model can catch the crisis that happened in 1998 and 1999 for real output indicator. Meanwhile ICI indicator can explain the crisis in August to December 1997, 1998 and September to December 2008. Based on SWARCH (3,1) model, it can be predicted that Indonesia does not experience currency crisis in one year later.

Integrando mecanismos evolutivos y dinámica de poblaciones de plantas: una perspectiva desde la demografía animal

Paniw, M. 2019. Perspectives from animal demography on incorporating evolutionary mechanism into plant population dynamics. Ecosistemas 28(1):60-68. Doi.: 10.7818/ECOS.1640 With a growing number of long-term, individual-based data on natural populations, it has become increasingly evident that environmental change affects populations through complex, simultaneously occurring demographic and evolutionary processes. Analyses of population-level responses to environmental change must therefore integrate demography and evolution into one coherent framework. Integral projection models (IPMs), which can relate genetic and phenotypic traits to demographic and population-level processes, offer a powerful approach for such integration. However, a rather artificial division exists in how plant and animal population ecologists use IPMs. Here, I argue for the integration of the two sub-disciplines, particularly focusing on how plant ecologists can diversify their toolset to investigate selection pressures and eco-evolutionary dynamics in plant population models. I provide an overview of approaches that have applied IPMs for eco-evolutionary studies and discuss a potential future research agenda for plant population ecologists. Given an impending extinction crisis, a holistic look at the interacting processes mediating population persistence under environmental change is urgently needed.

Algaeculture: An Alternative to Solving Energy Sustainability Crises in Developing Countries

There is an impending need to reduce the dependency on fossil fuels in these areas of the world considering the ever depleting conventional oil resources and climate change, induced by greenhouse gas emissions. Algae are currently being prompted as a potential next generation bioenergy feedstock due to the fact that they do not compete with food or feed crops. They also produce much higher areal oil yields than the current agricultural crops. They can be produced on barren lands and have broad bioenergy potentials as they can be used to produce liquid transportation and heating fuels such as biodiesel and ethanol, or anaerobically digested to produce biogas. Algae are fast growing organisms capable of fixing high amount of carbondioxide through photosynthesis to produce biomass. Diverse technologies are currently being pursued to produce algae for bioenergy applications. The successful culture of algae could serve as a solution to the impending energy crises in both developed and developing countries.

Conflicts in adaptation: case studies from Nepal and the Maldives

PurposeAdaptation appears to be regarded as a panacea in policy circles to reduce the risk of impending crises resulting from contemporary changes, including but not restricted to climate change. Such conceptions can be problematic, generally assuming adaptation as an entirely positive and non-conflictual process. The purpose of this paper is to challenge such uncritical views, drawing attention to the conflictual nature of adaptation, and propose a theoretical framework facilitating the identification and analysis of conflicts in adaptation.Design/methodology/approachThe study is based on case study research using first-hand narratives of adaptation in Nepal and the Maldives collected using qualitative interviews, participant observation and document analysis.FindingsThe findings identify conflicts between actors in, and around, communities that are adapting to changes. These conflicts can be categorized along three dimensions: qualitative differences in the type of conflict, the relative position of conflicting actors and the degree of manifestation of the conflict.Originality/valueThe three-dimensional Adaptation Conflict Framework facilitate analysis of conflicts in adaptation, allowing for a critical examination of subjectivities inherent in the adaptation discourses embedded in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation research and policy. Such an inquiry is crucial for interventions supporting community adaptation to reduce disaster risk.

GS-08-The prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in young adults: An impending public health crisis?

GS-08-The prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in young adults: An impending public health crisis?

Texas County Pilots Telehealth Crisis Response Program

The use of an iPad can extend the expertise of psychiatrists and other mental health professionals when Harris County deputies encounter situations that involve people with mental illness.

Economic Religion and the Worship of Progress

AbstractIn contemporary thought, the terms “secular” and “religious” are polar opposites. They are held to occupy separate domains. But that view is mistaken. Religious belief organizes society around fundamental ideas about ethics and existence. This article examines the way economic belief systems function as religions. Economic thought in various forms (Marxist, Keynesian, neoclassical) is brimming with implicit religious meaning. Instead of belief in an afterlife and heaven, modern economics promises heaven on earth in the form of continuous material progress. Adherents of competing economic ideologies often promote them with the energy of religious zealots. Thus, modern societies are still organized around religious principles, but they are now hidden from sight. This article shows how the religious dimension of the modern worship of economic progress is rooted in Christian theology: Calvinism in the United States and Lutheranism in the Nordic countries, which are famous for their own brand of social democracy. In recent decades, secular faith in the religion of economic progress has begun to falter. The failures of mainstream economics to warn of impending crisis has reduced its credibility, even among economists. More importantly, the rise of environmentalism as a religion has vastly increased the number of citizens who question the goal of material progress. The attack on economic religion may have also undermined the credibility of mainstream political parties, partially explaining Brexit in England and the election of Donald Trump in the United States.