Impending Changes Research Articles

Anticipating the consequences of climate change for Canada’s boreal forest ecosystems

Canadian boreal woodlands and forests cover approximately 3.09 × 106 km2, located within a larger boreal zone characterized by cool summers and long cold winters. Warming since the 1850s, increases in annual mean temperature of at least 2 °C between 2000 and 2050 are highly probable. Annual mean temperatures across the Canadian boreal zone could be 4–5 °C warmer than today’s by 2100. All aspects of boreal forest ecosystem function are likely to be affected. Further, several potential “tipping elements” — where exposure to increasing changes in climate may trigger distinct shifts in ecosystem state — can be identified across the Canadian boreal zone. Approximately 40% of the forested area is underlain by permafrost, some of which is already degrading irreversibly, triggering a process of forest decline and re-establishment lasting several decades, while also releasing significant quantities of greenhouse gases that will amplify the future global warming trend. Warmer temperatures coupled with significant changes in the distribution and timing of annual precipitation are likely to cause serious tree-killing droughts in the west; east of the Great Lakes, however, where precipitation is generally nonlimiting, warming coupled with increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide may stimulate higher forest productivity. Large wildfires, which can cause serious economic losses, are expected to become more frequent, but increases in mean annual area burned will be relatively gradual. The most immediate threats could come from endemic forest insect pests that have the potential for population outbreaks in response to relatively small temperature increases. Quantifying the multiple effects of climate change will be challenging, particularly because there are great uncertainties attached to possible interactions among them, as well as with other land-use pressures. Considerable ingenuity will be needed from forest managers and scientists to address the formidable challenges posed by climate change to boreal ecosystems and develop effective strategies to adapt sustainable forest management practices to the impending changes.

Work Motivation Factors and Attitude towards Organizational Change

The purpose of the study was to highlight the importance of an in depth understanding of the work motivation and attitudes towards organizational change, and the factors that influence and drive such motivations and attitudes hoping to mitigate the negative and bolster the positive effects of organizational change on employees. The work motivation included drive, control, challenge, relationships, and rewards, while attitudes towards organizational change were focused on cynicism to change, fear of change and acceptance of change. Using the descriptive correlation method with descriptive statistics and Pearson r, it was established in the study that there is no significant relationship between the two variables. The study concludes that employees’ work motivation is not influenced or driven by their attitudes towards impending organizational change. The results suggest that the organization must institutionalize measures to sustain and upgrade level of work motivation.Keywords: Public administration, motivation, organizational change, descriptive-correlation,Davao City

Late-modern hipsters

The article deals with the cultural significance of a new figure in late-modern Western culture: the hipster. The current hipster culture, so I argue, can be used as a magnifying glass that makes impending changes to our conception of culture and of cultural development visible. It ushers in broader cultural and social changes: different relations among generations, new ways of relating to technology and media, new ways of being together, and new phenomenologies and sensibilities. After a first outline of the figure of the hipster, I mark out two salient traits to hipster culture: its redemptive gesture toward the objects of the recent past and its predilection for irony. The article seeks to unfold hipster culture and sociality in an ongoing dialogue with sociological theory in general and conventional ways of thinking subculture in particular.

Extracting Value From Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery

Extracting Value From Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery

A New Definition of Intelligence

Intelligence is widely misunderstood. Too much is made of secrecy, and of covert operations and counter-intelligence (action domains informed by intelligence rather than integral to it). Intelligence is often focused on threats, missing opportunities for advantage. A standard definition is proposed for better understanding of intelligence by the academy, media and public. Intelligence is a corporate capability to forecast change in time to do something about it. The capability involves foresight and insight, and is intended to identify impending change which may be positive, representing opportunity, or negative, representing threat. Definitions which converge with this proposal are found in several intelligence settings.

In situ genetic association for serotiny, a fire‐related trait, in Mediterranean maritime pine (Pinus pinaster)

Wildfire is a major ecological driver of plant evolution. Understanding the genetic basis of plant adaptation to wildfire is crucial, because impending climate change will involve fire regime changes worldwide. We studied the molecular genetic basis of serotiny, a fire-related trait, in Mediterranean maritime pine using association genetics. A single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) set was used to identify genotype : phenotype associations in situ in an unstructured natural population of maritime pine (eastern Iberian Peninsula) under a mixed-effects model framework. RR-BLUP was used to build predictive models for serotiny in this region. Model prediction power outside the focal region was tested using independent range-wide serotiny data. Seventeen SNPs were potentially associated with serotiny, explaining approximately 29% of the trait phenotypic variation in the eastern Iberian Peninsula. Similar prediction power was found for nearby geographical regions from the same maternal lineage, but not for other genetic lineages. Association genetics for ecologically relevant traits evaluated in situ is an attractive approach for forest trees provided that traits are under strong genetic control and populations are unstructured, with large phenotypic variability. This will help to extend the research focus to ecological keystone non-model species in their natural environments, where polymorphisms acquired their adaptive value.

Is social protection in Greece at a crossroads?

ABSTRACTThis paper critically examines the limitations and deadlocks of welfare patterns embedded in the statist-familialist regime that for a long-time has been pivotal for the institutional set up and processes of social redistribution in Greece. Changes to social protection under the combined effect of conflicts and impasses of this regime, and of an intractable sovereign debt crisis (largely due to accumulated deadlocks) that has engulfed the country since the late 2000s are our main focus. Current welfare reforms across major policy areas are examined, with the aim to foreshadow the direction of impending change; and, particularly, to trace any indications of whether reform can bolster ‘inclusive solidarity’ and improve redistribution or, instead, will bring about heightened insecurity.

Discrepancies in discrepancy meetings: Results of the UK national discrepancy meeting survey

To present the findings of the UK national discrepancy meeting survey of radiology departments across England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland regarding the way in which discrepancy meetings are currently conducted. This is in the setting of impending changes required for revalidation. One hundred and fourteen (114) out of 195 (55%) of departments surveyed replied to an anonymous survey of 10 questions requesting information regarding the proportion of departments adopting a regular meeting, the consultant hours spent at the meeting, the system used and people involved in the identification of discrepancies, whether a grading system was used, and whether discrepancies were recorded on consultants appraisals. Ninety-seven percent of responders reported that their department has a regular discrepancy meeting. Among the responders, the average consultant attendance was 68%. Seven percent of departments did not record attendance. In departments that conduct discrepancy meetings, the number of cases discussed per month averaged 10. The average time spent per case was 6 min. Seventeen percent of departments ensure discrepancies form part of a consultant's appraisal. Twenty-seven percent reported not having a grading system, whereas those that do, use varying systems. Ninety-four percent reported that the majority of errors were identified by radiologists. Ten percent of departments undertake a systematic consultant review of random reported cases. Discrepancy meetings provide a crucial role in clinical governance by facilitating an improvement in the quality of service provided by the radiology department. After more than a decade since the introduction of discrepancy meetings in the UK, there remains a great variety in implementation across the country, and important considerations, such as the need for grading and recording discrepancies in consultant appraisals. Reflection on discrepancies and also attendance at discrepancy meetings is required for impending revalidation.

Digital Market Manipulation

Jon Hanson and Douglas Kysar coined the term “market manipulation” in 1999 to describe how companies exploit the cognitive limitations of consumers. Everything costs $9.99 because consumers see the price as closer to $9 than $10. Although widely cited by academics, the concept of market manipulation has had only a modest impact on consumer protection law. This Article demonstrates that the concept of market manipulation is descriptively and theoretically incomplete, and updates the framework for the realities of a marketplace that is mediated by technology. Today’s firms fastidiously study consumers and, increasingly, personalize every aspect of their experience. They can also reach consumers anytime and anywhere, rather than waiting for the consumer to approach the marketplace. These and related trends mean that firms can not only take advantage of a general understanding of cognitive limitations, but can uncover and even trigger consumer frailty at an individual level.A new theory of digital market manipulation reveals the limits of consumer protection law and exposes concrete economic and privacy harms that regulators will be hard-pressed to ignore. This Article thus both meaningfully advances the behavioral law and economics literature and harnesses that literature to explore and address an impending sea change in the way firms use data to persuade.

State of the Industry

adiology has always been one of edicine’s most dynamic discilines, sitting at the cutting edge of linical and technological advanceents since its very inception. Howver, now more than ever, radiology nds itself in the crucible of change, ith a set of powerful external forces hat are leading to tectonic shifts in he radiologic landscape. A confluence of pressures arising from an untenable cost structure, the emphasis on clinical quality, and an evolving landscape shaped by consumerism, demographics, and politics are forcing dramatic change in the health care system. We are no longer asking whether radiology as we know it will change; it is now only a matter of when. And the “how” will be guided by legislation, patients and providers, and technology. The rumblings and uncertainty today have many pondering the transformative winds, wondering how radiologists’ practice patterns will be affected. Many radiologists wonder about the impact of the great recession, of past and future health care reform, and of impending changes in autonomy. A 2012 survey in Diagnostic Imaging revealed that close to 70% of respondents had some degree of worry over being acquired by a hospital or health system. This concern is not unwarranted, considering the declining independence of physician practices: in 2008, 49.5% of physician practices were hospital owned [1], and estimates suggest that only 36% of physician practices will be independent by the end of 2013 [2]. Just as temperature and pressure exert great influence on a physical ob-

Northern Colorado Plateau piñon‐juniper woodland decline over the past century

The vegetation of Dinosaur National Monument and surrounding lands (∼298,000 ha) was reconstructed using General Land Office (GLO) survey records. This historical dataset was compared to two modern digital datasets to determine how vegetation has changed over 90 years. Net declines of 3–7% occurred in piñon‐juniper woodland and 12–19% in montane shrubland, along with corresponding 16–26% increases in sagebrush shrublands. Shorter natural and human‐caused fire rotations of 188–216 years appear to be driving woodland contraction. Piñon‐juniper expansion was concentrated, but not strictly confined to areas near historical piñon‐juniper‐sagebrush ecotones, and was particularly favored at elevations of 2000–2400 m and on slopes of 10–30%. Shorter recent fire rotations in sagebrush appear linked to cheatgrass expansion. Fire exclusion has had no net effect on fire rotations in the study area, as these rotations are generally shorter, not longer than historical rotations. If trends continue, a landscape outside the historical range of variability with significantly more early seral sagebrush and grassland and less piñon‐juniper woodland will emerge. Declines of piñon‐juniper in the study area are similar to the recent loss of woodland in Mesa Verde National Park, Colorado, and suggest that historical woodlands on the Colorado Plateau may be declining due to an excess of fire since Euro‐American settlement. If the goal is to maintain and restore the integrity of the natural vegetation and landscape of the study area, managers could suspend further resource‐management burning, reduce unintentional human‐set fires, and seek direct control of cheatgrass. Spatially complex patterns of woodland stability, recovery, contraction, and expansion show that century‐scale data are needed across large landscapes to discern net trends in landscape change needed for ecological restoration, management, and understanding impending future change.

Differential Response of Plant and Soil Processes Under Climate Change: A Mini-review on Recent Understandings

Climate change is now the single gravest threat in the current century. Its impact is being intensely felt by the countries which largely depend on agriculture, and India being recognized among the worst-hit countries of the world. In this review, both the climatic and biological effects of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and temperature on plant and soil, representing the most important constituents of the agricultural ecosystem have been discussed. Rising CO2 promotes photosynthetic carbon assimilation and adversely affects the photorespiratory activity with alteration in stomatal behaviour. Higher level of atmospheric CO2 is likely to affect C3 and C4 plants differentially. Atmospheric CO2 enrichment enhances the growth rate of all plant species but enhancement is much significant in C3 plants. The C4 plant system represents an evolutionary adaptation to low CO2 environment with lower CO2 compensation point. On the contrary, rise in temperature beyond a critical limit would result in retardation of growth, physiological development and suppression of metabolic activities. The C4 plants, being adapted to warmer environment may show less harmful effects than C3 plants. Thus, a differential benefits to both types of plants may balance the overall effect of climate change as far as the plant processes are concerned. Soil processes simultaneously may have direct changes in soil carbon content, nutrient cycling and microbial diversity which will cumulatively have obvious impact on soil quality with several indirect ones like soil water balance and salinity, etc. Both plant and soil processes are interrelated, and under impending climate change how these components respond is extremely important to understand and develop strategies and technologies for mitigation and adaptation, and to minimize the impact on total agriculture of India.

Novel Color Stimuli for Studying Spatial Attention

The effects of covert spatial attention on color processing are not well known. Although feature-based attention to color is known to improve discrimination performance, no studies (we know of) have examined the effects of spatial cueing on color processing. Here, we report results using a novel color stimulus that incorporates many of the desirable features found in visual motion stimuli commonly used in spatial attention tasks. The stimuli were circular patches (3.23° radius) comprised of ~660 squares, each with a color randomly drawn from a Gaussian distribution along one axis of DKL space, plus a randomly chosen luminance increment or decrement. Similar to dot-motion stimuli, each square was reborn after a fixed "lifetime" with a new color and luminance. By varying the mean and standard deviation of the Gaussian distribution, we defined stimuli that differed from one another in discriminability. We used these stimuli in a spatial attention task. In the main experiment, human subjects were shown 4 patches (1 in each quadrant at 8° eccentricity) while maintaining central fixation, and the mean color in one of the patches changed during the trial. The task was to report the "direction" of the color change (2AFC). In 50% of trials (cued block), a pre-stimulus cue indicated (100% valid) the location of the impending change; otherwise, the change could occur at any of the 4 patches (uncued block). In a control experiment, subjects performed the same 2AFC task with a single patch. Results from 3 subjects show that thresholds in the cued block were significantly lower than those in the uncued block, and nearly identical to those in the single-patch control. These results demonstrate that spatial cues can selectively enhance the processing of color stimuli, and illustrate the usefulness of these novel stimuli for studying spatial attention to color. Meeting abstract presented at VSS 2013

The application of ARP modelling to adaptive reuse projects in Hong Kong

Protecting the heritage of our increasingly ageing building stock is becoming more important but difficult, particularly as citizens look for ways to minimize their impact on scarce resources and fragile environments in the context of impending climate change. Adaptive reuse is an efficient way to reuse existing buildings that have become obsolete by ‘recycling’ them in-situ through giving them a new functional purpose. In this paper, using Hong Kong as a case study of dense urban development with immense redevelopment pressure, adaptive reuse potential (ARP) modelling is deployed to test the processes underway in Hong Kong for the adaptive reuse of 14 existing publicly owned historic buildings with various degrees of heritage protection, and rank these buildings to determine the most effective time to undertake adaptive reuse intervention. The best and worst projects are then investigated in further detail to provide insight into the validity of the modelling process. This research illustrates that the ARP model works well for the two in-depth studies, and recommends further use of this technique by government authorities to help manage the daunting task of where best to prioritize its resources for heritage protection.

Chest Pain and Syncope in Children: A Practical Approach to the Diagnosis of Cardiac Disease

Chest pain and syncope are common in children, accounting for numerous provider visits and leading to a considerable amount of testing. 1 Driscoll D.J. Glicklich L.B. Gallen W.J. Chest pain in children: a prospective study. Pediatrics. 1976; 57: 648-651 PubMed Google Scholar , 2 Danduran M.J. Earing M.G. Sheridan D.C. Ewalt L.A. Frommelt P.C. Chest pain: characteristics of children/adolescents. Pediatr Cardiol. 2008; 29: 775-781 Crossref PubMed Scopus (48) Google Scholar , 3 Friedman K.G. Kane D.A. Rathod R.H. Renaud A. Farias M. Geggel R. et al. Management of pediatric chest pain using a standardized assessment and management plan. Pediatrics. 2011; 128: 239-245 Crossref PubMed Scopus (86) Google Scholar , 4 Verghese G.R. Friedman K.G. Rathod R.H. Meiri A. Saleeb S.F. Graham D.A. et al. Resource utilization reduction for evaluation of chest pain in pediatrics using a novel Standardized Clinical Assessment and Management Plan (SCAMP). J Am Heart Assoc. 2012; 1 Crossref PubMed Scopus (36) Google Scholar , 5 DiVasta A.D. Alexander M.E. Fainting freshmen and sinking sophomores: cardiovascular issues of the adolescent. Curr Opin Pediatr. 2004; 16: 350-356 Crossref PubMed Scopus (10) Google Scholar , 6 McLeod K.A. Syncope in childhood. Arch Dis Child. 2003; 88: 350-353 Crossref PubMed Scopus (64) Google Scholar , 7 Ritter S. Tani L.Y. Etheridge S.P. Williams R.V. Craig J.E. Minich L.L. What is the yield of screening echocardiography in pediatric syncope?. Pediatrics. 2000; 105: E58 Crossref PubMed Scopus (80) Google Scholar The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services projects that health care spending will exceed 20% of the US Gross Domestic Product by 2018. 8 Borger C. Smith S. Truffer C. Keehan S. Sisko A. Poisal J. et al. Health spending projections through 2015: changes on the horizon. Health Aff (Millwood ). 2006; 25: w61-w73 Crossref PubMed Scopus (166) Google Scholar Considering the looming crisis in health care finance and impending changes in the US health care delivery system, provider-driven methods to optimize resource utilization are critical. Careful evaluation of current practices, with particular attention to use of expensive and overutilized resources, is needed.

Journey to excellence

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to provide details on how the Capital Projects Division within Alberta Infrastructure, in the provincial government of Alberta, started its journey to excellence by following Excellence Canada's framework. The framework focusses on systematic approach to excellence and widespread implementation in the organization. This paper provides comprehensive information on the division's processes, trends and impending changes for leadership that demonstrates quality and commitment of business excellence through quality improvements based on experience.Design/methodology/approachIn partnership with Excellence Canada, Capital Projects Division of Alberta government embarked on a journey to excellence using the Progressive Excellence Program® framework for quality. Equally important, the division explored ways it can invest wisely in innovative ideas that will reshape the current organization and prepare staff for a very exciting future. That meant using the most comprehensive approach to review existing processes and strive for efficient and innovative ideas for continuous improvement over the longer term.FindingsFirst, incorporating quality in the workplace is about the journey, not the destination, so leadership plays a vital role in its success. Second, the strategies on how to achieve quality primarily originate from the people within the organization. A key to achieving quality is to provide a framework for these ideas and strategies to emerge.Originality/valueThis paper focuses on the perseverance and leadership required in the development of a framework to support and encourage quality in the organization.

Neonatal Resuscitation Plan: What's New and How to Implement Guideline Changes

Purpose for the Program In 2010, the American Academy of Pediatrics significantly changed the Neonatal Resuscitation Program (NRP) guidelines by incorporating emerging evidence of best practices for the delivery of oxygen to the neonatal population. Women and Infants Hospital (WIH) delivers more than 9,000 infants annually; the neonatal intensive care unit resuscitation team attends approximately 3,000 deliveries and performs supportive measures on approximately 900 infants. Proposed Change Creating a comprehensive educational design would become paramount in successful dissemination of the impending practice changes. Three objectives were identified: (a) negotiate a uniform local interpretation of key NRP recommendations in the context of institutional standard practices; (b) create an educational intervention to efficiently and effectively disseminate changes to more than 760 multispecialty staff; and (c) assess the adoption of new practices in clinical resuscitation events. Implementation, Outcomes, and Evaluation The use of educational video recordings has served this institution well. With the extensive vastness of varying units in contact with neonates, multiple scenarios would need to be explored. Staff members were recruited for the video productions. To assist in strengthening the information being supplied, an outlined PowerPoint presentation was created, which fostered continuity of instruction. A “train‐the‐trainer” model was developed to facilitate the needs of a large hospital‐wide staff. A subcommittee of seven NRP instructors would act as the frontline educators of this instructional venture. Each department provided targeted champions who would be trained and tasked as “super‐users.” Trainers introduced the material on January 9. By January 25, the targeted goal of disseminating the information among 80% of WIH staff was attained. A committed group trained 610 neonatal resuscitation providers within 16 days! Compliance data collection was initiated to assess the success of creating a culture change in neonatal practices. Implications for Nursing Practice As children, we all had an opportunity to play the game of telephone; the premise being that one person share a piece of information with another and that piece of information is shared with another, and so forth. By the end of the communication, it is found that the final message in no way resembles the original message. It is with this concept in mind that many struggle when the task is disseminating information to large groups of employees. Feedback from this endeavor has been fruitful—corroborating data, reported by event observations, has spoken to retention and implementation of theory into practice and affirmation of a job well done. In 2010, the American Academy of Pediatrics significantly changed the Neonatal Resuscitation Program (NRP) guidelines by incorporating emerging evidence of best practices for the delivery of oxygen to the neonatal population. Women and Infants Hospital (WIH) delivers more than 9,000 infants annually; the neonatal intensive care unit resuscitation team attends approximately 3,000 deliveries and performs supportive measures on approximately 900 infants. Creating a comprehensive educational design would become paramount in successful dissemination of the impending practice changes. Three objectives were identified: (a) negotiate a uniform local interpretation of key NRP recommendations in the context of institutional standard practices; (b) create an educational intervention to efficiently and effectively disseminate changes to more than 760 multispecialty staff; and (c) assess the adoption of new practices in clinical resuscitation events. The use of educational video recordings has served this institution well. With the extensive vastness of varying units in contact with neonates, multiple scenarios would need to be explored. Staff members were recruited for the video productions. To assist in strengthening the information being supplied, an outlined PowerPoint presentation was created, which fostered continuity of instruction. A “train‐the‐trainer” model was developed to facilitate the needs of a large hospital‐wide staff. A subcommittee of seven NRP instructors would act as the frontline educators of this instructional venture. Each department provided targeted champions who would be trained and tasked as “super‐users.” Trainers introduced the material on January 9. By January 25, the targeted goal of disseminating the information among 80% of WIH staff was attained. A committed group trained 610 neonatal resuscitation providers within 16 days! Compliance data collection was initiated to assess the success of creating a culture change in neonatal practices. As children, we all had an opportunity to play the game of telephone; the premise being that one person share a piece of information with another and that piece of information is shared with another, and so forth. By the end of the communication, it is found that the final message in no way resembles the original message. It is with this concept in mind that many struggle when the task is disseminating information to large groups of employees. Feedback from this endeavor has been fruitful—corroborating data, reported by event observations, has spoken to retention and implementation of theory into practice and affirmation of a job well done.

Mentorship, knowledge transmission and female professionals in Canadian water research and policy

We face multiple water challenges: droughts, floods, crumbling infrastructure and disappearing natural hydrosystems. Technological interventions will help but these challenges also require social solutions and good governance. Identifying and implementing both technical and social solutions demands a resilient water research and policy community (WRPC). The WRPC must include diverse perspectives as the challenges increase in intensity, frequency and scope and as decision processes accelerate. Will the WRPC be able to effectively address this evolving water context? Possibly, but we argue that the WRPC's effectiveness will be partially determined by its ability to respond to impending demographic changes and the erosion of valuable knowledge resources. Generating stronger social ties between water professionals from different generations is critical to transfer these knowledge resources. Mentorship has been recognized for both its individual benefits and its organizational benefits, yet it has been under-explored within the WRPC. Using a qualitative analysis of a Canadian case and focusing on a female professional sub-population, we argue that mentorship has significant potential to develop and sustain intergenerational ties and knowledge resource transmission within a WRPC. Our findings suggest that long-term mentorship investments will directly contribute to the WRPC's resilience and its ability to effectively address water challenges.

The association between diurnal temperature range and emergency room admissions for cardiovascular, respiratory, digestive and genitourinary disease among the elderly: A time series study

ObjectivesTo evaluate the short-term effect of diurnal temperature range (DTR) on emergency room (ER) admissions among elderly adults in Beijing. MethodsAfter controlling the long-time and seasonal trend, weather, air pollution and other confounding factors, a semi-parametric generalized additive model (GAM) was used to analyze the exposure–effect relationship between DTR and daily ER admissions among elderly adults with different lag structures from 2009 to 2011 in Beijing. We examined the effects of DTR for stratified groups by age and gender, and conducted the modifying effect of season on DTR to test the possible interaction. ResultsSignificant associations were found between DTR and four major causes of daily ER admissions among elderly adults in Beijing. A 1°C increase in the 8-day moving average of DTR (lag 07) corresponded to an increase of 2.08% (95% CI: 0.88%–3.29%) in respiratory ER admissions and 2.14% (95% CI: 0.71%–3.59%) in digestive ER admissions. A 1°C increase in the 3-day and 6-day moving average of DTR (lag 02 and lag 05) corresponded to a 0.76% (95% CI: 0.07%–1.46%) increase in cardiovascular ER admissions, and 1.81% (95% CI: 0.21%–3.45%) increase in genitourinary ER admissions, respectively. The people aged 75years and older were associated more strongly with DTR than the 65–74 age group. The modifying effect of season on DTR was observed and it was various in four causes. ConclusionsThis study strengthens the evidence that DTR is an independent risk factor for ER admissions among elderly persons. Some prevention programs that target the elderly and other high risk subgroups for impending large temperature changes may reduce the impact of DTR on people's health.

Reducing Features to Improve Code Change-Based Bug Prediction

Machine learning classifiers have recently emerged as a way to predict the introduction of bugs in changes made to source code files. The classifier is first trained on software history, and then used to predict if an impending change causes a bug. Drawbacks of existing classifier-based bug prediction techniques are insufficient performance for practical use and slow prediction times due to a large number of machine learned features. This paper investigates multiple feature selection techniques that are generally applicable to classification-based bug prediction methods. The techniques discard less important features until optimal classification performance is reached. The total number of features used for training is substantially reduced, often to less than 10 percent of the original. The performance of Naive Bayes and Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifiers when using this technique is characterized on 11 software projects. Naive Bayes using feature selection provides significant improvement in buggy F-measure (21 percent improvement) over prior change classification bug prediction results (by the second and fourth authors [28]). The SVM's improvement in buggy F-measure is 9 percent. Interestingly, an analysis of performance for varying numbers of features shows that strong performance is achieved at even 1 percent of the original number of features.