Impending Changes Research Articles

Extreme warming challenges sentinel status of kelp forests as indicators of climate change.

The desire to use sentinel species as early warning indicators of impending climate change effects on entire ecosystems is attractive, but we need to verify that such approaches have sound biological foundations. A recent large-scale warming event in the North Pacific Ocean of unprecedented magnitude and duration allowed us to evaluate the sentinel status of giant kelp, a coastal foundation species that thrives in cold, nutrient-rich waters and is considered sensitive to warming. Here, we show that giant kelp and the majority of species that associate with it did not presage ecosystem effects of extreme warming off southern California despite giant kelp's expected vulnerability. Our results challenge the general perception that kelp-dominated systems are highly vulnerable to extreme warming events and expose the more general risk of relying on supposed sentinel species that are assumed to be very sensitive to climate change.

Construction of Heritage: Small and Medium Towns of Gurgaon District

Global discourses around heritage are grappling with idea of including dissonant, non-compliant voices and expanding the definition of heritage from the physical to a cultural process, pushing beyond the authorized heritage discourse. The dialogical model of heritage is presented as a means to break down the divide between laypersons and experts, suggesting new models for decision-making in the future. It is problematic to contextualize this discourse in the Indian context, more so in small and medium towns where this intellectual debate has never been formalized. Yet, there are existing ways in which the local stakeholders maintain and use sites or structures from the past that they value. Identification of these ways of keeping and using could be a step towards demystifying the construct of heritage in the local community. The Gurgaon district has witnessed an unprecedented urban growth rate from 2001 to 2011 and the eight historic small and medium towns of the district are on the verge of being enveloped in the rapid urban development. This impending change calls for a need to examine the heritage sites of these towns. Studying the historic structures in six of these towns points to the role of history and religion as connectors to heritage. This role has been explored on ground and at an ideological level, as an attempt towards understanding the construct of heritage as a process in play.

The Power of a Leadership Philosophy

Over the past 27 years as a nurse and nurse leader, I have reflected many times on the importance of nursing leadership. Nursing leadership creates a safe workplace environment where nurses can be and perform at their best to provide for an excellent patient experience of care. I have been blessed with great mentors along my journey as a nursing leader. I have been faced with significant challenges as a nurse leader as well. It is through these relationships and challenges that I have gained knowledge and experiences as a nurse and nurse leader that have shaped my leadership philosophy, guiding how I choose to respond to people and situations. Here is my leadership philosophy: 1I believe that being a leader carries the responsibility of being a positive example in the workplace. To accomplish this, it is important for me to be accessible, approachable, and highly visible with our people and to lead at every interaction. I schedule time each day to complete Leadership Rounds to our people and patients. 2I believe leaders have the responsibility to Inspire A Shared Vision, recognizing the current state and our future related to the mission, vision, core values, and the key priorities of our hospital. 3I believe in Professional Governance where staff are empowered to challenge our current policies, procedures, and practices, making important decisions to improve the workplace environment and the patient's experience of care. None of us are as smart as all of us. 4I believe in Our People First. I have the responsibility to reward, recognize, and celebrate the contributions of individuals and teams. I believe our people will perform at their best depending on the tools they have. As leaders, we have to assure our people are well cared for and have the tools they need. People work for people, not organizations. 5I believe in Safety Above All with our patients, visitors, and each other. To accomplish this, it is important that I am approachable. People need to feel comfortable and safe reporting unsafe practices. 6I believe in Our Mission Always. I use our mission to guide the actions and decision-making of our teams. 7I believe in a Culture of Ownership. In the spirit of “proceed until apprehended,” I encourage people to be creative and innovative and to exceed the basis of their roles and responsibilities. I do not tolerate a lack of ownership, indecision, or being unprepared. 8I believe in Lifelong Learning. I take complete responsibility for my own growth and development by staying involved in professional organizations, maintaining appropriate certifications, and reading pertinent material to stay ahead of impending changes to the healthcare environment. 9I believe Communication is Key! I believe in open, honest, and ethical communication and being completely transparent. I will be upfront, above board, and direct with courtesy, professionalism, and mutual respect. I do not tolerate open hostility, anger, and failure to treat people with courtesy and respect. 10I believe in Excellence. I have the responsibility of working with our teams to establish SMART goals for measuring progress (not perfection) toward our key priorities. I believe results are very important. 11I believe in Interprofessional Collaboration. I have the responsibility to ensure we have adequate representation in an environment of inclusivity to accomplish our shared vision and goals. 12I believe the most important role of a leader is in Relationship Management. A leader's circle of influence is more important than authority or control. Leadership is about discipline and intelligence, not about who has the heavier hand.

Contradictions in surgical work teams

ABSTRACTTeamwork and communication are essential to effective work groups in health care. This project investigated how an impending technology change spurred the staff in an ophthalmological surgical department to improve their teamwork and communication processes. Data were gathered using focus groups, key informant interviews, and workplace observations involving 56 employees. Qualitative, interpretive analysis indicated that lack of communication impacted team processes and job satisfaction. Participants indicated that sharing knowledge and developing policy knowledge were problematic, especially as those processes concerned job duties. Results were interpreted using structurating activity theory. Analysis identified system-level and structural-level contradictions that hindered activity accomplishment. Several practical implications of findings are offered, including using the experience of work team contradictions as opportunities to transform practices, implementing ongoing inter-professional training for work teams, and providing opportunities for work team members to be reflective about their team experiences. Future research suggestions are offered for extending findings.

The Builders of Socialism: Eastern Europe's Cities in Recent Historiography

When the angry homeowners of a popular Seattle neighbourhood recently decided to rise in protest against the impending changes in the urban development code, they claimed that their chief goal was to protect the district from turning into an ‘Eastern Bloc city’. If the City Council allowed the new legislation to pass, reportedThe Seattle Times, Seattle was ‘in danger of becoming the Soviet Warsaw or East Berlin of the Pacific Northwest’. ‘I've been to Poland’, one protester said, ‘I know what they [Polish cities] look like. They're bleak. They're dead.’

Enhancing the Diagnosis, Treatment, Surveillance, and Control of Infectious Diseases in the ACA Era.

As US public health faces increasing threats from outbreaks, impending changes to the healthcare landscape in the United States may alter the way that health departments are able to detect and control some of the most common infectious diseases. The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) has made significant changes in the way health care is provided in the United States. While many of the clinical, economic, and policy implications of the ACA are well described, there has been limited analysis of changes, if any, in the surveillance and control of infectious diseases of public health importance-such as tuberculosis, sexually transmitted infections, and HIV-that are anticipated or occurring as the ACA is implemented across the United States. To address these questions, we reviewed the literature for evidence of changing trends and conducted 66 semi-structured, not-for-attribution interviews with 82 participants from healthcare systems; academia; federal, state, and local public health agencies; and professional and nongovernmental organizations across the United States. This analysis identifies several ways in which ACA implementation has not fully addressed the public health needs associated with diagnosis, treatment, surveillance, and control of infectious diseases of public health importance.

How Blockchain Could Disrupt Wall Street!

The financial markets are not only changing internally but also externally as blockchain starts to change the infrastructure landscape. The falling fees for investment management is creating a more accountable financial industry and forcing the stock market to also question its broader role in the society. Blockchain eliminates third party. Stock Exchanges are third parties. The idea of long term stock exchange, raised by Eric Ries in “The Lean Startup” were never so relevant. The author explores the historical context of stock exchanges and why they are not ready for the impending change. The foundation stones of the stock exchange business like liquidity and price discovery are worth revisiting in the blockchain context. The exchanges should get ready for disruption in their space and beginning of evolution of the stock exchange business in possibly less than a decade.

Modeling the cost-effectiveness of stormwater best management practices in an urban watershed in Las Vegas Valley

The Las Vegas Valley is one of the fastest growing urban areas in the United States. Any future urbanization and climate change, especially if the climate becomes wetter and there are more intense and frequent storm events, will undoubtedly cause excessive urban stormwater runoff and exacerbate flooding in the Valley. Stormwater management is therefore one of the key challenges to the local government. The main goal of this study was to ascertain the utility of Best management Practices (BMPs) in mitigating stormwater runoff in the Duck Creek watershed in the Las Vegas Valley. The cost-effectiveness of different BMPs were also compared so as to determine the best BMP arrangement under the current and future climate and land use change conditions. By applying SUSTAIN (System for Urban Stormwater Treatment and Analysis INtegration) as a comprehensive GIS-based modeling and decision support system in the BMP analyses, modeling results show that although the installation of the existing three detention basins in the watershed can provide a 9% flow reduction, these three detention basins alone will not be adequate in the future with the impending changes in climate and land use. To alleviate the potential problems of water resources, SUSTAIN was further used to determine the number of additional BMPs required, the optimal types of BMPs (such as, detention and infiltration BMPs), and their locations in reducing storm runoff in the watershed under the future land-use and climate regimes. By comparing the performances of five potential BMP implementation scenarios, it was found that a mixed implementation of one additional detention BMP and one infiltration BMP to the existing detention BMPs in the downstream area of the watershed would be the most cost-effective stormwater runoff control solution in face of future urbanization and climate change. Depending on the locations of the new detention and infiltration BMPs, surface flow, even without BMP retrofit options, could be reduced by 27–31%. The cost for such installations would range from $1,141,000 to $1,319,000. This information may be useful to local planners and water resource managers in their efforts to develop alternative stormwater management plans in the arid Southwest.

Cancer, Cognitive Impairment, and Work-Related Outcomes: An Integrative Review.

Cancer survivors often report concerns regarding their memory, attention, and ability to process information and make decisions. These problems, which have also been demonstrated on objective neuropsychological assessments, may have a significant impact on work-related outcomes. . A literature review was conducted using the following electronic databases. Articles were evaluated by two independent researchers. . Twenty-six studies met the inclusion criteria. Ten were qualitative, 15 were quantitative, and 1 had a mixed-methods design. Quantitative articles were synthesized using the integrative methodology strategies proposed by Whittemore and Knafl. Synthesis of qualitative articles was conducted using the criteria established by the Swedish Agency for Health Technology Assessment and Assessment of Social Services. . To date, research in this context has been limited by cognitive assessments focusing primarily on patient self-assessments of attention, concentration, and memory. Additional research is needed to examine the impact of cognitive performance and to expand work-related outcomes measures to include perceived work ability, productivity, and actual performance. . Lack of information regarding cognitive impairment inhibits survivors' ability to prepare, understand, and accept impending cognitive changes and how they may affect work ability. Oncology nurses can assist cancer survivors by preparing and educating them on how to better manage impairment associated with cancer and its treatment.

Frequent neuromonitoring loss during the completion of vertebral column resections in severe spinal deformity surgery

Background ContextIntraoperative monitoring (IOM) is an essential method for preventing postoperative spinal deficits during posterior vertebral column resection (VCR) surgery for treatment of severe spine deformities, but the IOM features directing at VCR procedures are rarely reported and need to be further clarified. PurposeTo evaluate an important surgical point that will lead to the IOM loss frequently, and then remind the surgeons to pay close attention to impending monitoring changes during posterior VCR surgery. Study Design/SettingRetrospective study. Patient SampleA total of 77 patients with severe spine deformities who underwent posterior VCR and deformity correction surgeries from January 2012 to May 2015 are retrospectively analyzed in our spine center. Outcome MeasuresIOM (motor-evoked potentials [MEP] and somatosensory-evoked potentials) was used for intraoperative spinal function assessment. MethodsPatients were divided into 2 groups according to their preoperative spinal function, including 27 patients with preoperative spinal deficits and 50 patients with spinal normal. And the IOM data during surgery, especially among VCR procedures, were mainly analyzed in the present study. ResultsWith the VCR procedure almost complete, most patients showed varying degrees of IOM loss that included 37 cases showing obvious IOM degenerations and 21 cases showing significant IOM loss with alerts immediately. Moreover, the patients with preoperative spinal deficits have more significant decreasing percentage in MEP amplitude (81% vs. 68%, p<.05) than those patients without. ConclusionsWith the VCR procedure almost complete, surgeons must pay closely attention to the IOM signals and should be ready to take corresponding surgical measures to deal with the impeding monitoring loss.

An efficient and inexpensive method for measuring long-term thermoregulatory behavior

Thermoregulatory ability and behavior influence organismal responses to their environment. By measuring thermal preferences, researchers can better understand the effects that temperature tolerances have on ecological and physiological responses to both biotic and abiotic stressors. However, because of funding limitations and confounders, measuring thermoregulation can often be difficult. Here, we provide an effective, affordable (~$50 USD per unit), easy to construct, and validated apparatus for measuring the long-term thermal preferences of animals. In tests, the apparatus spanned temperatures from 9.29 to 33.94°C, and we provide methods to further increase this range. Additionally, we provide simple methods to non-invasively measure animal and substrate temperatures and to prevent temperature preferences of the focal organisms from being confounded with temperature preferences of its prey and its humidity preferences. To validate the apparatus, we show that it was capable of detecting individual-level consistency and among individual-level variation in the preferred body temperatures of Southern toads (Anaxyrus terrestris) and Cuban tree frogs (Osteopilus septentrionalis) over three-weeks. Nearly every aspect of our design is adaptable to meet the needs of a multitude of study systems, including various terrestrial amphibious, and aquatic organisms. The apparatus and methods described here can be used to quantify behavioral thermal preferences, which can be critical for determining temperature tolerances across species and thus the resiliency of species to current and impending climate change.

Implications of Climate Change for Wetland-Dependent Birds in the Prairie Pothole Region

The habitats and food resources required to support breeding and migrant birds dependent on North American prairie wetlands are threatened by impending climate change. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) hosts nearly 120 species of wetland-dependent birds representing 21 families. Strategic management requires knowledge of avian habitat requirements and assessment of species most vulnerable to future threats. We applied bioclimatic species distribution models (SDMs) to project range changes of 29 wetland-dependent bird species using ensemble modeling techniques, a large number of General Circulation Models (GCMs), and hydrological climate covariates. For the U.S. PPR, mean projected range change, expressed as a proportion of currently occupied range, was −0.31 (± 0.22 SD; range − 0.75 to 0.16), and all but two species were projected to lose habitat. Species associated with deeper water were expected to experience smaller negative impacts of climate change. The magnitude of climate change impacts was somewhat lower in this study than earlier efforts most likely due to use of different focal species, varying methodologies, different modeling decisions, or alternative GCMs. Quantification of the projected species-specific impacts of climate change using species distribution modeling offers valuable information for vulnerability assessments within the conservation planning process.

Highlights from the Ocean Sciences Session: “Impacting Policy by Communicating and Incorporating Ocean Science Through Ecosystem‐Based Management”

Highlights from the Ocean Sciences Session: “Impacting Policy by Communicating and Incorporating Ocean Science Through Ecosystem‐Based Management”

Effects of climate change on yak production at high altitude

Yak is considered the life-line of highland pastoral nomads who raise them on high altitude ranges under transhumance. Yak production at high-altitude alpine ranges may be affected due to the gradual increase of environmental temperature as a result of impending climate change. The mean environmental temperature of yak habitat at 3,000 m above mean sea level in Northeastern Indian Himalaya, varying from 1.2 to 11.1°C and 7.9 to 19.7°C during winter and summer seasons, respectively, evidencing the heat stress to the yaks in summer with THI more than 52. When environmental temperature exceeds 13°C, adaptive mechanisms of body accelerate respiration rate and heart rate to cope with heat stress in yaks. It was reported that the climate change is already witnessed at high altitude with average rise of environmental temperature 0.01 to 0.04°C/year and the expected increase of 2– 3°C have potentially catastrophic for high-altitude animals and ecosystem. The alpine pasture decreased in vegetative above ground biomass and composition which results in starvation or loss of body condition appeared to be manifested as reduced fertility in yak with low milk yield. Further, climate change may result in increase of pests and diseases at the lower permanent settlements of sub-alpine region thereby making these areas incompatible for yaks. Mitigation of heat stress in yak possibly can be done through three means by physical modification of the environment, improved nutritional management and genetic development of strains that would be less sensitive to heat stress.

ADAPTIVE LEADERSHIP 101

Govindarajan explains that adaptive leaders “anticipate change, prepare for it, and often make change happen in the direction they want to go.” They are attuned to “weak signals,” which “operate similarly to the needle on a barometer, where movement indicates impending change.” Adaptive leaders also discover and make the best use of mavericks and change agents within their organizations. Using an example from IBM, he also points out that adaptive leaders make small bets before making big ones. This form of leadership cuts across structural boundaries; it can work not just in companies like IBM, Keurig, and Hasbro, but also in the likes of Illinois's Willow Creek Community Church.

Breast Imaging: The Face of Imaging 3.0

In preparation for impending changes to the health care delivery and reimbursement models, the ACR has provided a roadmap for success via the Imaging 3.0 ®platform. The authors illustrate how the field of breast imaging demonstrates the following Imaging 3.0 concepts: value, patient-centered care, clinical integration, structured reporting, outcome metrics, and radiology’s role in the accountable care organization environment. Much of breast imaging’s success may be adapted and adopted by other fields in radiology to ensure that all radiologists become more visible and provide the value sought by patients and payers.

Gender, Age and Season as Modifiers of the Effects of Diurnal Temperature Range on Emergency Room Admissions for Cause-Specific Cardiovascular Disease among the Elderly in Beijing.

Background: Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is an important index of climate change and variability. It is also a risk factor affecting human health. However, limited evidence is available to illustrate the effect of DTR modification on cause-specific cardiovascular disease among the elderly. Methods: A semi-parametric generalized additive model (GAM) was used to analyze the exposure-effect relationship between DTR and daily emergency room (ER) admissions for cause-specific cardiovascular diseases among the elderly from 2009 to 2011 in Beijing. We examined the effects of DTR for stratified groups by gender and age, and examined the effects of DTR in the warm season and cold season for cause-specific cardiovascular diseases. Results: Significant associations were found between DTR and ER admissions for all cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease among elderly males, while DTR was significantly associated with ER admissions for all cardiovascular disease, ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease among elderly females. People aged 75 years and older were more vulnerable to DTR. DTR caused greater adverse effects on both genders in the warm season, whereas the effect estimates on females were higher in cold season than in warm season. Conclusions: A short-term increase of DTR was significantly associated with ER admissions for cause-specific cardiovascular disease among the elderly in Beijing. Gender, age and season may modify the acute health effect of DTR. Some prevention programs that target the high risk subgroups in the elderly for impending large temperature changes may reduce the impact of DTR on people’s health.

An introduction to the prospect of the Chinese RMB as a reserve currency

On October 1, 2016, the Chinese RMB (yuan) will be included in the SDRs of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Reserve currencies are select currencies that have special drawing rights (SDRs). This article examines some of the aspects of this impending change of including the Chinese RMB as a select currency. The U.S. dollar is expected to continue to dominate as a select currency, after October 1, 2016, for the foreseeable future. This article has been written so as to provide general economists with some understanding of special drawing rights (SDR) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and how the addition of the Chinese RMB will fit in, as of October 1, 2016

Expert-derived monitoring thresholds for impacts of megaherbivores on vegetation cover in a protected area

Monitoring is meant to inform conservation authorities, yet managers often don't know when to respond to monitoring results. One of the reasons is that management often lacks consensus on monitoring thresholds for intervention. This results in aimless monitoring without a clear directive on when monitoring indicates a trajectory towards an unacceptable state or impending change, which possibly necessitates intervention. Although experts rarely provide simple, measureable and quantifiable monitoring thresholds as required by management, they are often more comfortable expressing opinions on whether a specific area is desirable or not. This allows thresholds to be reverse engineered: by getting experts to identify sites as desirable and undesirable, field variables can subsequently be measured to derive the boundary between subjectively identified desirable and undesirable states. Such a boundary provides a defendable point for management to assess and consider intervention. Here we describe the identification of monitoring thresholds by defining the limits of desirable canopy cover, derived from expert stakeholder preferences, in the Sundays Spekboom Thicket vegetation of the Addo Elephant National Park, South Africa. The park has experienced variable utilization intensity by large herbivores, especially elephant. For years managers have grappled with the question of what percentage shrub canopy cover is desirable as a management target, but science has failed to provide this. Using experts to assess pre-selected sites as desirable or undesirable across a range of canopy covers, we showed that a canopy cover of ∼65% (±15%) would be desirable for expert stakeholders. We then used satellite imagery to map canopy cover, providing managers for the first time with a large-scale map of canopy cover, indicating desirability status. This approach was useful for facilitating joint-decision making between conservation agencies and stakeholders on tangible indicators of achieving goals, and may be useful in fostering relationships, trust, mutual understanding and transparency, characteristics critical for managing complex socio-ecological systems.

Behavioral response to temperature change by the freshwater crab Neostrengeria macropa (H. Milne Edwards, 1853) (Brachyura: Pseudothelphusidae) in Colombia

We analyzed experimental behavioral data on temperature preference for the pseudothelphusid crab Neostrengeria macropa (H. Milne Edwards, 1853) in the Sabana de Bogota (Bogota Plain), Colombia to predict its likely behavioral response to temperature shocks and climate change. We used location data and the results of our behavioral assays to determine likely geographic range and how that range may be affected by impending climate change in the next century. We determined the temperature tolerance range of the crab to be between 10.5 and 26°C based on behavioral assays, along with mapping the likely effect of climate change on its biogeographic range using this temperature tolerance and the history of collections to inform a MaxEnt model. We found that N. macropa is not likely to change its geographic range in the next 70 years. It has a relatively wide temperature tolerance range (15.5°C) for a tropical animal, probably due to the wide daily temperature swing present on the Bogota Plain. This work also provides a sense of the tolerance range and probable effect of climate change for more inaccessible pseudothelphusid crab species in Colombia since the country is mountainous and understudied for this group in rural areas. Increased development in Colombia combined with climate change could be devastating to these species.