Impact Of Land Research Articles

Vertical Jump of a Humanoid Robot With CoP-Guided Angular Momentum Control and Impact Absorption

Highly dynamic movements such as jumping are important to improve the agility and environmental adaptation of humanoid robots. This article proposes an online optimization method to realize a vertical jump with centroidal angular momentum (CAM) control and landing impact absorption for a humanoid robot. First, the robot's center of mass (CoM) trajectory is generated by nonlinear optimization. Then, a quasi-sliding mode controller is designed to ensure that the robot tracks the CoM trajectory accurately. To avoid unexpected spinning in the flight phase, a center-of-pressure-guided angular momentum controller is designed to stabilize the CAM. The modifications of CoM and CAM are realized by online optimization of dynamic components and inverse dynamics. Two quadratic programming optimizations are utilized to generate feasible contact force/torque and joint acceleration referring to uplevel CoM and CAM controllers. In addition, a viscoelastic model-based controller is designed to absorb the vibration caused by a large contact impact. A simulation and experiment of a 0.5-m high (foot lifting distance) vertical jump are achieved on a humanoid robot platform in this article (Fig. 1).

Research on the Strategy of Hosting the Olympic Games Based on Entropy-Weighted Gray Correlation Analysis

Regarding the issue of Olympic Games hosting strategy, first, the entropy weight method and grey correlation analysis are used to construct the overall model. Secondly, the CGE model is used to comprehensively analyze the impacts of the two Olympic policies on production, national income, and national trade by considering land, income, and trade. Thirdly, the Transformer algorithm is used to make predictions to avoid the limitations of the CGE model. Finally, the predicted growth rates of Olympic tourism and GDP for the next year are used to comprehensively evaluate the two strategies of hosting the Olympics by season and by a fixed location. The study concludes that, based on the comprehensive impact of land, income, trade, and tourism, the weights for these factors are 0.26, 0.24, 0.24, and 0.26, respectively. Meanwhile, the comprehensive scores for hosting the Olympics by season and by a fixed location are 1.3569 and 1.2414, respectively.

A high-resolution study of planktonic foraminifera during the Holocene at the Tilos-Symi sea basin in the SE Aegean Sea

High-resolution data for planktonic foraminifera and their groups of ecological interest, including Herbivores and Carnivores, combined with benthic foraminifera and a great variety of biogeochemical indices from the SE Aegean sediment core ST5, contribute to a detailed study concerning major and minor climatic episodes during Holocene. The ST5 sediment record, retrieved from the Tilos-Symi marine basin, evidences the impact of the nearby land, the local climate, and the Rhodes Gyre imprint on the eastern Mediterranean water circulation. Pronounced environmental changes are detected during a preconditioning period of ~400 years before the onset of sapropel S1 deposition and during the deposition phases S1a (10.0–8.4 ka BP) and S1b (8.0–6.1 ka BP). Major freshwater influx episodes (10.5 ka BP, 9.2–8.9 ka BP, 7.4 ka BP, 4.5–4.3 ka BP, and few additional during the Late-Holocene) are revealed, prominent oxygen deficiency time intervals (including a distinct brief anoxic period) as well as several drier, cooler and warmer climatic events. Herbivore planktonic foraminifera alternate their dominance with the Carnivores at the preconditioning period before the S1 onset and at the Late-Holocene (2.0–1.5 ka BP) when conditions of good seawater circulation, oxygenation, and productivity alternate with stratified low oxygenation waters and high freshwater influx from the land.

Impact of Reforestation After Forest Fire on Infiltration and Other Soil Physical Properties

Forest fires have become a vital issue causing various hydro-meteorological disasters. Many parties have carried out efforts. This study aimed to analyze the impact of land covers due to reforestation on infiltration rate and other soil physical properties related to hydrological conditions. The research was conducted in the Cempaka Forest area. There are four observed land covers, i.e., Timber Forest Products (TFP), Non-Timber Forest Products (NTFP), Pine, and Shrub. The results showed that land cover significantly affected the infiltration rate (p <0.05). The infiltration rate of Pine was not significantly different from NTFP but significantly different from TFP and Shrubs. The infiltration rate of Pine, NTFP, TFP, and Shrub land cover was 76.2 cm hr-1, 48.1 cm hr-1, 32.7 cm.hr-1, and 40.0 cm hr-1, respectively. The infiltration correlated with soil bulk density at two depths (0-15 cm and 16-30 cm) with r values of 0.614 and 0.595, respectively. Infiltration rate also significantly correlated with water content at pF 0 and pF 2.5 in the second soil depth. Additionally, soil bulk density is correlated with soil particle density with r = 0.621. Soil particle density also correlated with clay content with r equal to 0.726.

Individual and Combined Impacts of Land Use/Cover and Climate Change on Water Balance Components of a Tropical River Basin

Individual and Combined Impacts of Land Use/Cover and Climate Change on Water Balance Components of a Tropical River Basin

Impact of land use/cover change and slope gradient on soil organic carbon stock in Anjeni watershed, Northwest Ethiopia.

Today's agri-food systems face the triple challenge of addressing food security, adapting to climate change, and reducing the climate footprint by reducing the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG). In agri-food systems, changes in land use and land cover (LULC) could affect soil physicochemical properties, particularly soil organic carbon (SOC) stock. However, the impact varies depending on the physical, social, and economic conditions of a given region or watershed. Given this, a study was conducted to quantify the impact of LULC and slope gradient on SOC stock and C sequestration rate in the Anjeni watershed, which is a highly populated and intensively cultivated area in Northwest Ethiopia. Seventy-two soil samples were collected from 0-15 and 15-30cm soil depths representing four land use types and three slope gradients. Soil samples were selected systematically to match the historical records (30years) for SOC stock comparison. Four land use types were quantified using Landsat imagery analysis. As expected, plantation forest had a significantly (p < 0.05) higher SOC (1.94Mgha-1) than cultivated land (1.38Mgha-1), and gentle slopes (1-15%) had the highest SOC (1.77Mgha-1) than steeper slopes (> 30%). However, higher SOC stock (72.03Mgha-1) and SOC sequestration rate (3.00Mgha-1year-1) were recorded when cultivated land was converted to grassland, while lower SOC stock (8.87Mgha-1) and sequestration rate (0.77Mgha-1year-1) were recorded when land use changed from cultivation to a plantation forest. The results indicated that LULC changes and slope gradient had a major impact on SOC stock and C sequestration rate over 30years in a highly populated watershed. It is concluded that in intensively used watersheds, a carefully planned land use that involves the conversion of cultivated land to grassland could lead to an increase in soil C sequestration and contributes to reducing the carbon footprint of agri-food systems.

Spatial pattern of land use along the terrain gradient of Qinghai Tibet Plateau: a case study of Qiangtang Plateau, China

Understanding the land use and land cover (LULC) pattern of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau in China is crucial to support the structural and functional integrity of the ecological barrier of the plateau. This information has significant implications not only for the ecological environment and regional development of the plateau but also for the broader environmental impact at regional and global levels. It is critical to comprehend the spatial pattern and ascertain the underlying causes of land use and land cover in significant areas of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau. This can enable the formulation and implementation of context-specific policies and measures that can contribute to enhancing the ecological security barrier function of the plateau. This study focused on the core area of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau - the Qiangtang Plateau. Based on surface cover data from 2020 and ASTER GDEMV3 data, distribution indices and geographic detectors were used to explore the quantitative impact of land use/cover spatial patterns and terrain factors on land use/cover spatial distribution. The results showed the following: 1) The land use/cover space of the Qiangtang Plateau was dominated by grassland and bare land. Specifically, grassland had the greatest area, accounting for approximately 63.94% of the plateau area and covering an area of 449,983 km2. Grassland was widely distributed in most areas of the plateau. Bare land was the second-largest land cover type, with an area of 186,302 km2, accounting for 26.47% of the plateau area. Bare land was primarily located in the western and northern parts of the plateau. 2) The spatial differentiation of land use/cover in the Qiangtang Plateau was significant. Grasslands were primarily distributed in low mountainous areas characterized by high relief, gentle slopes, and low roughness. In contrast, bare land was mainly distributed in low mountainous areas with high relief, steep slopes, and low roughness. 3) The main drivers of the spatial distribution of land use/cover on the Qiangtang Plateau were elevation, roughness, and relief. Moreover, the interactions between these three terrain factors and other environmental variables significantly influenced the land use/cover pattern in the study area.

Effect of land use/land cover changes on water quality in the Upper Athi River sub-catchment in Kenya

The unprecedented pollution of Athi River has negatively impacted the downstream communities who depend on the river's waters. Moreover, the Upper Athi River Catchment has recently experienced an increase in human population coupled with rapid industrialisation, which has led to encroachment of wetlands, riparian areas and forests. The objective of the present study was to investigate the impact of land use/land cover changes (LULCC) on the spatial-temporal distribution of water quality (WQ) in the Upper Athi River Catchment. The research stations were each allocated a GPS position, overlaid onto a 2018 LULCC map of the area. WQ data were analysed using PCA and further subjected to Kruskai-Wallls tests that resulted in six significant WQ parameters at (p < 0.05). The multiple regression model output showed that EC, DO, Zn and Pb, with R 2 values of 0.983, 0.918, 0.938 and 0.961 respectively, were significantly associated with urban area land use (p < 0.009, p < 0.042, p < 0.031 and p < 0.02 respectively). The results of our study suggest that significant land cover degradation is expected to occur in the Upper Athi River Catchment in future if mitigation activities are not undertaken, posing a great threat to biodiversity conservation, and the survival of local communities and urban dwellers in Athi River town.

Modeling the impact of land use/land cover change on soil erosion: in Suluh River Basin, Northern Ethiopia

&lt;p&gt;&lt;span lang="EN-US"&gt;The &lt;em&gt;Suluh&lt;/em&gt; river basin is subjected to soil erosion due to land use and land cover change. Yet, the impact of land use/land cover change soil erosion has not been applied in the study area. Thus, the current study focused on the modeling of the impact of land use/land cover changes on soil erosion in the &lt;em&gt;Suluh&lt;/em&gt; river basin, the northern highland part of Ethiopia. Landsat image data sources were used to achieve the objectives. Ancillary data was also used. The nearest neighbor's fuzzy way of classification and the land change modeler for modeling, and the revised universal soil loss equation model for estimating the soil erosion rate were employed. Both qualitative and quantitative data were analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively. The study's findings confirmed that cultivated land, bare land, and built-up areas significantly increased while areas occupied by natural vegetation such as forest land, shrub lands, and grazing lands decreased at a rapid rate in between 1990 to 2018. The predicted results suggest the continuation of the trend up to 2048 if business as usual is continued. The annual mean of soil lost in the study area was about 36.31, 43.32, and 47.78 in the years 1990, 2002, 2018, and will be 56.54, and 71.62 tons per hectare per year in 2028, and 2048, respectively. When we consider 15 t ha&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt; year&lt;sup&gt;−1&lt;/sup&gt; as the maximum tolerable soil loss (TSL) rate for ease of presentation, the areas above the TSL have increased from 88.3% in 1990 to 88.6% in 2002 and to 89.6% in 2018, and are expected to increase to 89.9% and 99.8% in 2028 and 2048 periods, respectively. Thus, land use and land cover change information and its impact on soil erosion should be taken under consideration by land use planners to apply sustainable land management activities in the &lt;em&gt;Suluh&lt;/em&gt; river basin.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Lightning-Based Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Guidance

Abstract With several seasons of Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data, this work revisits incorporating lightning observations into operational tropical cyclone rapid intensification guidance. GLM provides freely available, real-time lightning data over the central and eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans. A long-term lightning dataset is needed to use GLM in a statistical–dynamical operational application to capture the relationship between lightning and the rare occurrence of rapid intensification. This work uses the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) dataset from 2005 to 2017 to develop lightning-based predictors for rapid intensification guidance models. The models mimic the operational Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme Rapid Intensification Index and Rapid Intensification Prediction Aid frameworks. The frameworks are averaged to form a consensus as a means to isolate the impact of the lightning predictors. Two configurations for lightning predictors are assessed: a spatial configuration with 0–100-km inner core and 200–300-km rainband area for the preceding 6-h predictors and a temporal configuration with an inner core only for the preceding 0–1, 0–6, and 6–12 h. When tested on the 2018–21 seasons, the temporal configuration adds skill primarily to the 12–48-h forecasts when compared to the no-lightning version and rapid intensification operational consensus. When WWLLN is replaced with GLM, minor changes to the prediction are observed suggesting that this approach is suitable for operational applications and provides a new baseline for tropical cyclone lightning-based rapid intensification aids. Significance Statement The forecasting of rare, yet critical, tropical cyclone rapid intensification events continues to be challenging. The current operational tools to anticipate rapid intensity changes use a combination of numerical weather prediction–derived environmental conditions and satellite-based cloud top temperature variations of deep convection. Here, we use freely available Geostationary Lightning Mapper data, which provide independent information about convection, in similar intensity guidance frameworks using temporal and spatial aspects of lightning variability. Our results show an improvement in short-term (12–48 h) rapid intensification forecasts by using temporal lightning information, and our investigation highlights that users of Geostationary Lightning Mapper lightning information should be cognizant of the influence and impact of land on these observations.

Impact of land use/land cover (LULC) changes on latent/sensible heat flux and precipitation over Türkiye

Impact of land use/land cover (LULC) changes on latent/sensible heat flux and precipitation over Türkiye

Solar farm policy and farmland price – A land zoning perspective

Photovoltaic or solar energy is recognized as a significant source of renewable energy on a global scale. The utilization of ground-mounted solar panels is closely associated with the use of farmland, as solar power generation typically requires vast expanses of farmland. While previous studies have explored the use of price incentives to regulate the adoption of solar panels, little is known about the impact of land zoning policies on farmland prices. The relationship between farmland use policies and farmland prices is well-documented, with policies often capitalizing into the value of the land across various countries. The deployment of ground-mounted solar panels has raised concerns about the potential loss of farmland and the degradation of the farming environment. However, the policy debate has largely overlooked the price capitalization effect of solar panel installations. In an effort to mitigate the adverse effects of solar panels on agriculture, the Taiwanese government implemented revised zoning regulations that impose stricter limitations on small-scale ground-mounted type solar panels installed on farmland. As a result of this policy reform, solar panels are no longer permitted on farmland areas measuring less than 660 square meters. While it is expected that the installation of solar panels will slow down, the resulting price effects on farmland remain poorly understood. This paper measures the impact of the land zoning regulation on farmland prices in Taiwan. By utilizing nationwide data on farmland transactions and employing the difference-in-differences method, we discover that the tightened regulations pertaining to solar panel installation have led to a 21.8% reduction in farmland prices. Furthermore, the negative price effect is found to be least pronounced in high-productivity farmland. We also find that the decline in prices commenced two months after the reform and continued to intensify over time. Additionally, we identify a distributional effect concerning price, whereby farmland with higher prices per hectare experiences the most significant impact. Consequently, our study contributes an empirical analysis that confirms the substantial price capitalization effects of land zoning policies on farmland.

Assessing Impacts of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) Change on Stream Flow and Runoff in Rur Basin, Germany

Understanding the impact of land use/land cover (LULC) change on hydrology is the key to sustainable water resource management. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to evaluate the impact of LULC change on the runoff in the Rur basin, Germany. The SWAT model was calibrated against the observed data of stream flow and runoff at three sites (Stah, Linnich, and Monschau) between 2000 and 2010 and validated between 2011 and 2015. The performance of the hydrological model was assessed by using statistical parameters such as the coefficient of determination (R2), p-value, r-value, and percentage bias (PBAIS). Our analysis reveals that the average R2 values for model calibration and validation were 0.68 and 0.67 (n = 3), respectively. The impacts of three change scenarios on stream runoff were assessed by replacing the partial forest with urban settlements, agricultural land, and grasslands compared to the 2006 LULC map. The SWAT model captured, overall, the spatio-temporal patterns and effects of LULC change on the stream runoffs despite the heterogeneous runoff responses related to the variable impacts of the different LULC. The results show that LULC change from deciduous forest to urban settlements, agricultural land, or grasslands increased the overall basin runoff by 43%, 14%, and 4%, respectively.

Impact of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on food security: bibliometric analysis and empirical evidence

Impact of coronavirus disease on sustainable growth and food security is dramatically negative. Despite significant number of publications focused on food security and coronavirus disease issues, a deeper analysis of food security damages activated by COVID-19 is necessary. This determines the main task of this research. Theoretical block of the study involves bibliometric analysis of relevant Scopus publications using VOSviewer. Empirical block of the study involves: 1) formation of Food Security Index for 15 European countries based on a combination of Principal Component Analysis, ranking, Fishburn formula and additive convolution; 2) panel data regression modelling aimed at clarifying impact of macroeconomic indicators and healthcare expenditures on food security during 2000–2021 (model 1), 2000–2019 (model 2) and 2020–2021 (model 3). Model 1 demonstrates that 1% increase in current health care expenditures leads to 0.003 units increase in Food Security Index; impact of the dummy variable characterizing COVID-19 pandemic is also positive. Model 2 demonstrates similar results. Model 3 confirms only positive and statistically significant impact of trade and agricultural land on Food Security Index. The results can be useful to government officials for adjusting political measures in food governance, political decision-making and good governance, recovery of sustainable growth in post-pandemic period.

Gust and landing impacts as critical load cases for wings with distributed propulsion

The integration of distributed electric propulsion and energy storage systems into the wing structure significantly affects the mass distribution of the wing. Compared with conventional aircraft which are designed with engines mounted on the inner wing and integral fuel tanks, this substantially changes the overall loads on the wing structure. Assuming a retrofit scenario, this paper studies the influence of transient gust and landing impact loads on the dynamic behavior and the structural integrity of the wing of a representative conventional 19-seater commuter aircraft of CS-23 category retrofitted with distributed electric propulsion. Modal and dynamic response analyses are conducted based on a beam model idealizing the wing box of three wing designs: the reference wing with one main turboprop engine per half-wing, and two wings with integrated distributed electric propulsion. The results show for both load cases that the wing section loads obtained by dynamic response analysis exceed those predicted by equivalent quasi-static calculations. Compared with the reference wing, a significant increase of the amplitudes of the plunge and twist deformation and consequently higher section loads and stresses are observed for the retrofitted wing designs. It is concluded that both load cases are critical with regard to the structural integrity of the wing. However, the gust load case is more critical than the landing load case. These conclusions suggest that for the structural sizing of the wing, in particular for wings with distributed propulsion, and with regard to gust and landing impacts, the commonly applied quasi-static analyses should be accompanied by dynamic response analyses.

Land–atmosphere feedbacks contribute to crop failure in global rainfed breadbaskets

Global crop yields are highly dependent on climate variability, with the largest agricultural failures frequently occurring during extremely dry and hot years. Land–atmosphere feedbacks are thought to play a crucial role in agricultural productivity during such events: precipitation deficits cause soil desiccation, which reduces evaporation and enhances sensible heating from the land surface; the amplified local temperatures and moisture deficits can be detrimental to crop yield. While this impact of local land–atmosphere feedbacks on agricultural productivity has recently been reported, the dependency of crop yields on upwind regions remains understudied. Here, we determine the spatio-temporal origins of moisture and heat over the world’s largest 75 rainfed breadbaskets, and illustrate the crop yield dependency on upwind regions. Further, we disentangle the role of local and upwind land–atmosphere interactions on anomalous moisture and heat transport during low-yield years. Our results indicate that crop failure increases on average by around 40% when both upwind and local land–atmosphere feedbacks cause anomalously low moisture and high heat transport into the breadbaskets. The impact of upwind land–atmosphere feedbacks on productivity deficits is the largest in water-limited regions, which show an increased dependency on moisture supply from upwind land areas. Better understanding these upwind–downwind dependencies in agricultural regions can help develop adaptation strategies to prevent food shortage in a changing climate.

Measuring the urban sprawl based on economic-dominated perspective: the case of 31 municipalities and provincial capitals

ABSTRACT Accurate measurement of urban sprawl is vital for urban planning and management. Urban planning-induced internal structure complexity affects the extent of urban sprawl. In addition, urban sprawl is closely linked to economic development. The study attempts to explore the impact of urban sprawl from an economic-dominated perspective. Thus a City-Ring road-County (CRC) scale framework based on top-down administrative divisions for urban sprawl measurement is proposed: 1) the single-index measurement based on economic activity is applied to calculate urban sprawl; 2) the spatiotemporal pattern of urban sprawl is investigated through a case study in 31 economy-dominated provincial capital cities across China from 2005 to 2015; 3) the impact of economy and land on urban sprawl is explored using correlation analysis. The results indicate that the degree of urban sprawl at the city scale shows an “inverted U-shaped” curve from 2005 to 2015, which represents that the phenomenon of urban sprawl was most severe in 2010. It finds that urban sprawl was more severe in the east and central regions relative to the provincial capitals in the western region, with the situation being most severe in the northeast region. Regions that have been transformed from suburban to urban built-up areas need to be given priority attention by the local government, including population movement, land layout, and fiscal policy, to meet the criteria of the urbanization process. Through correlation analysis, we also found that urban sprawl was influenced by the industry structure and the form of built-up area. The outcome of the study suggests that the data scale is sufficiently small in granularity to provide geographic boundaries for systematic analysis of urban sprawl in multiple administrative regions. Thus, the study helps provide a reference for differential planning policy formulation by governments at diverse economic levels.

Impacts of climate and land use/cover change on mini-hydropower generation in River Kyambura watershed in South Western part of Uganda

Abstract This study explored the combined impacts of climate and land-use change on mini-hydropower generation in the Kyambura watershed. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) was used as a hydrological model whereas the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to downscale meteorological data for the Kyambura watershed for the year 2050. The results show that there will be an increase in urban land by 11.89%, barren land by 25.78%, water by 0.49% and a reduction in percentage area coverage of vegetation by 38.17% by the year 2050. A 10.6 and 17.7% increase is anticipated in average annual hydropower generated by the year 2050. There is, therefore, a need to develop governing policies to regulate management practices to preserve the integrity of the watersheds and ensure the reliability of power production.

Impacts of land use/land cover and climate change on hydrological cycle in the Xiaoxingkai Lake Basin

Study regionThe Xiaoxingkai Lake Basin in China. Study focusWatershed hydrological simulation is a prominent aspect of hydrology, however, comprehensive analysis of lake basins based on hydrological simulation is rarely conducted. Therefore, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+) with dynamic land use/land cover (LULC) input and time-varying parameters to simulate streamflow of the Xiaoxingkai Lake Basin and estimate the impacts of LULC and climate change on streamflow during 1961–2017. We also evaluated the contributions of LULC and climate change to water volume in Lake Xiaoxingkai through a lake water balance analysis. New hydrologic insights for the regionThe simulated streamflow agrees well with observations at most stations (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency, NSE > 0.5, and goodness of fit, R2 > 0.8). Climate change has a positive effect on streamflow which dominates the streamflow variations during 1981–1995 and 2006–2017, whereas LULC change has a negative effect with a dominant role during 1996–2005. The volume of Lake Xiaoxingkai increased slightly at a rate of 0.12 × 106 m3 yr−1, with climate change contributing the most (77.25 %) to the increase, followed by direct human activities (47.50 %) and LULC change (−24.76 %). This study facilitates a better understanding of the hydrological cycle in the Xiaoxingkai Lake Basin under changing environments and is helpful for regional water resource management.

Impact of climate and land use/land cover change on Lobo reservoir inflow, West-Central of Côte d'Ivoire

Study regionLobo River Catchment (Côte d’Ivoire) Study focusIn this study, four regional climate models (RCMs) (RC4; CCLM4–8–17; RACMO22T and REMO) for the 2030 and 2050 periods compared to the reference period (1986–2005), combined with a simulation of land use and land cover (LULC) with Land Change Modeler, are used to drive the CEQUEAU model to quantify their impact on inflows to the Lobo River reservoir. 1988–2006 is used as a calibration period, whereas 2007–2015 is used for the validation. Three scenarios were used. First, varying LULC and keeping climate parameters static over the baseline period (scenario 1); in scenario 2, varying RCMs and keeping LULC static over the baseline period and in scenario 3, simultaneous variation of LULC and RCMs. New hydrological insights for the regionCEQUEAU showed good performance during calibration and validation: NSE (0.7, 0.75); R² (0.83, 0.65); PBIAS (14.1%, 12%) and RMSE (0.83, 2.15). The results show that a decrease in precipitation by 2030 (−14.6%), by 2050 (−15.2%) under scenario 2 (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and by − 6.1% under RCP 4. 5 (Scenario 3), we observe an increase in runoff of 10.8–18.87% (Scenario 1), 1.2–4.46% (RCP4.5), 3.35% and 2.7% (RCP8.5) (Scenario 2) and 6.58–11.83 (RCP 4.5), 14.83–17.72% (RCP 8.5) (scenario 3). Changes in LULC were identified as the main causes, rather than climate variability.