Impact Of Land Cover Change Research Articles

Dam Siltation in the Mediterranean Region Under Climate Change: A Case Study of Ahmed El Hansali Dam, Morocco

Dams are vital for irrigation, power generation, and domestic water needs, but siltation poses a significant challenge, especially in areas prone to water erosion, potentially shortening a dam’s lifespan. The Ahmed El Hansali Dam in Morocco faces heightened siltation due to its upstream region being susceptible to erosion-prone rocks and high runoff. This study estimates the siltation at the dam from its construction up to 2014 using bathymetric data and the Brown model, which is a widely-used empirical model that calculates reservoir trap efficiency. Additionally, the study evaluates the impact of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes and projected future rainfall until around 2076 based on siltation rates. The results indicate that changes in LULC, particularly temporal variations in precipitation, have a significant impact on the siltation of the Ahmed El Hansali dam. Notably, rainfall is strongly correlated with the siltation rate, with an R2 of 0.92. The efficiency of sediment trapping (TE) is 97.64%, meaning that 97.64% of the sediment in the catchment area is trapped or deposited at the bottom of the dam. The estimated annual specific sediment yield is about 32,345.79 tons/km2/yr, and the sediment accumulation rate is approximately 4.75 Mm3/yr. The dam’s half-life is estimated to be around 2076, but future precipitation projections may extend this timeframe due to the strong correlation between siltation and precipitation. Additionally, soil erosion driven by land management practices plays a crucial role in future siltation dynamics. Hence, this study offers a comprehensive assessment of the siltation dynamics at the Ahmed El Hansali dam, providing essential information on the long-term effects of erosion, land use changes, and climate projections. These findings may assist decision makers in managing dam reservoir sedimentation more effectively, ensuring the durability of the dam and extending the reservoir life.

Impacts of Land Use and Land Cover Change on Non-Point Source Pollution in the Nyabarongo River Catchment, Rwanda

The Nyabarongo river catchment in Rwanda has experienced significant changes in its land use and land cover (LULC) in recent decades, with profound implications for non-point source pollution. However, there are limited studies on non-point pollution caused by nutrient loss associated with land use and land cover changes in the catchment. This study investigates the spatiotemporal impacts of these changes on water quality considering nitrogen and phosphorus within the catchment from 2000 to 2020 and 2030 as a projection. The SWAT model was used in analysis of hydrological simulations, while the CA–Markov model was used for the future projection of LULC in 2030. The results revealed (1) the important changes in LULC in the study area, where a decrease in forestland was observed with a considerable increase in built-up land, grassland, and cropland; (2) that the R2 and NSE of the TN and TP in the runoff simulation in the catchment were all above 0.70, showing good applicability during calibration and validation periods; (3) that from 2000 to 2020 and looking to the projection in 2030, the simulated monthly average TN and TP levels have progressively increased from 15.36 to 145.71 kg/ha, 2.46 to 15.47 kg/ha, 67.2 to 158.8 kg/ha, and 9.3 to 17.43 kg/ha, respectively; and (4) that the most polluted land use types are agriculture and urban areas, due to increases in human activities as a consequence of population growth in the catchment. Understanding the patterns and drivers of these changes is critical for developing effective policies and practices for sustainable land management and protection of water resources.

Impact of land use land cover changes on urban temperature in Jakarta: insights from an urban boundary layer climate model

Urbanization is one of the important drivers of increasing local temperatures. As cities and urban areas evolve, extensive land use and land cover (LULC) changes alter the physical characteristics of surface materials. This modification results in reduced evapotranspiration rates, ultimately contributing to higher surface and air temperatures. This study investigated the impact of urbanization on urban temperature in Jakarta. Urban temperature was simulated for a 20-year time period (1995–2014) by the urban boundary layer climate model UrbClim, using LULC data for both 1995 and 2014. Temperature changes were analysed by assessing the temperature anomaly across different LULC change classes divided into four main classes namely no built-up changes (BB), no green spaces changes (GG), built-up to green spaces (BG), and green spaces to built-up (GB). The study revealed that the conversion of green spaces to built-up areas (GB) had the most significant impact on the increase in air temperature. This was indicated by the mean values of the temperature anomaly of GB of about 0.24°C followed by GG, BB, and BG with the mean values of the temperature anomaly of about 0.20°C, 0.19°C, 0.17°C, respectively. The different temperature anomalies of the LULC change classes indicate that green spaces have an important role in maintaining local climate. Hence, it is important for local government to effectively manage the composition, the quantity, as well as the distribution of green spaces within a city. By looking at temperature anomalies of LULC change classes, the present study provides an alternative approach to many existing methods that provide general information about temperature changes, without specifically analyzing the effects of LULC transformations.

Impacts of land use and land cover change on the landscape pattern and ecosystem services in the Poyang Lake Basin, China

ContextDecades of intensifying human activities have led to drastic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) in the Poyang Lake Basin (PLB), resulting in significant changes in landscape pattern and ecosystem service value (ESV), thereby affecting regional sustainability.ObjectivesWe focused on understanding the impact of LULC changes on the landscape pattern and ESV of the PLB and used the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model (PLUS) to predict LULC changes in 2050.MethodsWe evaluated landscape patterns using landscape metrics and calculated ESV using the ecosystem service equivalent factor method. The Pearson correlation coefficient was used to analyze the correlation between landscape patterns and ESV from 1990 to 2020. Then, we combined the PLUS model and the ecosystem service equivalent factor method to calculate the ESV under multiple scenarios from 2020 to 2050.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2020, the LULC of the PLB changed to varying degrees. The PLB has undergone a rapid process of landscape fragmentation, and the total ESV of the PLB has decreased. The total ESV was positively correlated with the CONTAG index and negatively correlated with the SHDI index. Between 2020 and 2050, the ESV of the PLB is projected to decrease under the NDS (nature development scenario) and EDS (economic development scenario) and increase under the EPS (ecological protection scenario).ConclusionsESV responded to changes in landscape pattern. We recommend that the PLB should increase patch connectivity. Additionally, future development in the PLB should prioritize ecological protection to prevent further declines in ESV.

Impact of rapid anthropogenic land use and land cover change on basin hydrology and sediment loads

Impact of rapid anthropogenic land use and land cover change on basin hydrology and sediment loads

Land Cover Simulation and Carbon Storage Assessment in Daqing City based on FLUS-InVEST Model

Considering Daqing City as the research area, the impact of land cover change on carbon storage in the future was discussed, and the hot spots of carbon sequestration capacity were identified. The future land use simulation （FLUS） model was used to simulate the land cover pattern of a natural succession scenario, ecological protection scenario, urban development scenario, and comprehensive development scenario in 2030, and the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs （InVEST） model was combined to estimate carbon storage in 2010, 2020, and 2030. Finally, the hot spot analysis tool was used to identify the cold hot spots of carbon sequestration capacity. The results showed the following： ① From 2010 to 2020, the area of cultivated land, water, and artificial surface increased, whereas the area of other land cover types decreased, and the total carbon storage decreased by 8.6×105 t. ② The land cover change of the natural succession scenario and urban development scenario in 2030 was similar to that of 2010-2020, with carbon storage decreasing by 1.16×106 t and 1.20×106 t, respectively. The carbon storage of the comprehensive development scenario decreased by 1.00×106 t compared with that in 2020, and carbon storage of the ecological protection scenario was 5.677 7×108 t, which increased by 2.53×106 t compared with that in 2020. ③ The conversion of grassland and wetland to cultivated land was the main cause of carbon storage loss, and the main contributor of carbon storage in the ecological protection scenarios was wetland. ④ The hot spots of carbon sequestration capacity were mainly located in the wetland area, and the cold spots were mainly distributed in the central part of Daqing City. The carbon sequestration capacity of cultivated land was not significant. According to the research results, to realize the urban transformation of Daqing City, we should insist on returning farmland to forest and grass, increase the intensity of returning moisture, improve the utilization rate of urban land, and increase green infrastructure in the main urban area.

Impacts of Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Biomass and Carbon Sequestration in Coastal Kinondoni, Tanzania

Impacts of Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Biomass and Carbon Sequestration in Coastal Kinondoni, Tanzania

Influence of urban functional zone change on land surface temperature using multi-source geospatial data: A case study in Nanjing City, China

The urban heat island effect is a prevalent urban concern, and studies on its influencing factors are essential to mitigate its negative effects and promote sustainable urban development. Although many studies have revealed the impact of land cover change on land surface temperature (LST) during urbanization, most have focused only on built-up areas without considering the relationship between urban internal functional structure and LST. To clarify the influence of changes in urban functional zones (UFZs) on LST, focusing on the downtown area of Nanjing City, China, this study proposed an effective framework using multi-source geospatial data for qualitative and quantitative analysis. Specifically, very high spatial resolution images and point of interest data were jointly used to generate UFZ maps using an advanced deep learning approach, and LST distribution maps were retrieved from Landsat 8 images using the radiative transfer equation. The UFZ and LST maps were then overlaid and analyzed to reveal the impact of UFZ change on LST. The results showed that in 2013, 2018, and 2022, the residential region constituted the largest proportion of area, comprising 23.52%, 24.52%, and 27.28%, respectively. The areas of unused region and transport region experienced the most rapid decrease and increase of 6.08% and 4.05% from 2013 to 2022, respectively. Furthermore, the area of sub-high temperature zone decreased the most, by 3.47%, whereas that of the high-temperature zone increased the most, by 6.05%. In the study area, water and green space maintained relatively low LSTs, whereas residential region and unused region exhibited higher LSTs. From 2013 to 2022, UFZ changes contributed to a 0.71°C increase in LST. Transfers from green space, water, commercial region, transport region, and industrial region mostly resulted in a higher LST, which was associated with a decrease in fractional vegetation cover (FVC). Transfers from unused region, residential region, and public service region mostly contributed to reducing LST, which was caused by the increase in FVC. The findings and the proposed framework can provide reliable references for urban managers to optimize urban spatial layout and promote sustainable urban development.

Assessing the impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change on Land Surface Temperatures and SUHI: Case of Pune, India

The emergence of urban heat islands and rising land surface temperatures in developing countries like India is becoming a crucial concern for urban planners and policymakers. This study attempts to assess the impact of Land use and land cover (LULC) change on the Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Surface Urban Heat Islands (SUHI) in Pune, India, using remote sensing and Geographic information systems (GIS). A spatiotemporal analysis of the Landsat satellite imagery from 2000 – 2023 has been used to trace the LULC trends and compute LST variations across the years in land cover types. The thermal band, 10 of the Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), is used for computing LST. Spatial indicators such as normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalized differentiated built index (NDBI) are also calculated. Results indicate that there has been a 30% decline in vegetation across the city over the years, alongside an increase of 16.64°C in LST due to urbanization-induced LULC changes. Furthermore, this study attempts to identify the thermal hotspots in the city. The results of this study can enable the assessment of urbanization and the formulation of informed climate-sensitive urban planning strategies. Keywords: Land Surface Temperature, Pune, Remote Sensing, GIS, Local Climate Zone, SUHI

Examining the impact of land use and land cover changes on land surface temperature in Herat city using machine learning algorithms

Examining the impact of land use and land cover changes on land surface temperature in Herat city using machine learning algorithms

The Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Ecosystem Services Value in Laos between 2000 and 2020

The Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Ecosystem Services Value in Laos between 2000 and 2020

Assessing the impact of land use and land cover change on the Densu Delta wetland using Markov chain modeling and artificial neural networks

This study investigates the dynamics of land use and land cover (LULC) changes in the Densu Delta wetlands, a critical ecosystem in Ghana. Here, satellite images spanning from 1998 to 2023 were used to analyse the spatio-temporal patterns of LULC changes and their implications for water bodies, wetlands, vegetations, bare lands and urban areas in the Densu Delta wetland. Employing advanced techniques such as Markov chain modelling and artificial neural networks (ANNs), the research assesses and predicts LULC alterations. Significantly, the largest loss of LULC is observed in the Densu Delta wetland, where wetlands transition to waterbody cover type (14.02 km²). Model validation for 2023 attests to the accuracy of the model, boasting a correctness percentage of 70% and a kappa value of 0.74. In-depth analyses explore regional variations in the Densu Delta wetlands, revealing distinct patterns in the rates of LULC change before and after 2013. Notably, urbanization emerges as a prominent factor post-2013, with urban areas experiencing remarkable rates of change in the wetland. Transition matrices underscore the intricate interplay of different land cover classes over the years. Simulated LULC predictions for 2033 and 2043 highlight the urban land cover type as having the highest positive change, recording approximately 0.39% for the Densu Delta wetland. The wetland land cover in the Densu Delta wetland exhibit negative changes of about −0.52%. The synthesis of LULC data enhances our understanding of the complex interactions shaping these critical ecosystems. This research offers valuable insights for sustainable environmental conservation, emphasizing the pivotal role of informed urban planning policies. It also unveils potential challenges posed by climate change, advocating for a holistic approach to preserve these vital wetland ecosystems.

Disproportionate contributions of land cover and changes to ecosystem functions in Kazakhstan and Mongolia

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) have profoundly altered land surface properties and ecosystem functions, including carbon and water production. While mapping these changes from local to global scales has become more achievable due to advancements in earth observations and remote sensing, linking land cover changes to ecosystem functions remains challenging, especially at regional scale. Our study attempts to fill this gap by employing a computationally efficient method and two types of widely used high-resolution satellite images. We first investigated the contribution of landscape composition to ecosystem function by examining how land cover and proportion affected gross primary production (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) at six macro-landscapes in Mongolia and Kazakhstan. We hypothesized that both ecosystem and landscape GPP and ET are disproportionate to their composition and, therefore, changes in land cover will have asymmetrical influences on landscape functions. We leveraged a computational-friendly linear downscaling approach to align the coarse spatial resolution of MODIS (500 m) with a fine-grain and localized land cover map developed from Landsat (30 m) for six provinces in countries where intensive LULCC occurred in recent decades. By establishing two metrics—function to composition ratio (F/C) and function to changes in composition change (ΔF/ΔC)—we tested our hypothesis and evaluated the impact of land cover change on ecosystem functions within and among the landscapes. Our results show three major themes. (1) The five land cover types have signature downscaled ET and GPP that appears to vary between the two countries as well as within each country. (2) F/C of ET and GPP of forests is statistically greater than 1 (i.e., over-contributing), whereas F/C of grasslands and croplands is close to or slightly less than 1 (i.e., under-contribution). F/C of barrens is clearly lower than 1 but greater than zero. Specifically, a unit of forest generates 1.085 unit of ET and 1.123 unit of GPP, a unit of grassland generates 0.993 unit of ET and GPP, and a unit of cropland produces 0.987 unit of ET and 0.983 unit of GPP. The divergent F/C values among the land cover classes support the hypothesis that landscape function is disproportionate to its composition. (3) ΔET/ΔC and ΔGPP/ΔC of forests and croplands showed negative values, while grasslands and barrens showed positive values, indicating that converting a unit of forest to other land cover leads to a decrease in ET and GPP, while converting units of grassland or barren to other land cover classes will result in increased ET and GPP. This linear downscaling approach for calculating F/C and ΔF/ΔC is labor-saving and cost-effective for rapid assessment on the impact of land use land cover change on ecosystem functions.

Impact of land cover changes on land surface temperature variations in Adama City, Ethiopia

ABSTRACT Land surface temperature (LST) is becoming a serious environmental issue, since it is an essential controller of city climate. Currently, addressing this challenge in urban planning has gained worldwide importance. The study aims to analyze the effect of land cover dynamics on LST using geographic information system and remote sensing techniques. In this study, Landsat 7 ETM+ (2002) and Landsat 8 TIRS (2022) data were used. The LST was retrieved from Landsat datasets. The correlation analyses were conducted on LST, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and normalized difference built-up index (NDBI). The findings suggested that there was a negative correlation between LST and the NDVI, while a positive correlation existed with the NDBI. Moreover, NDBI was found to be a better predictor of LST than NDVI. Additionally, it was revealed that the proportion of dense and sparse vegetation cover was reduced from 24.14 km2 (17.47%) in 2002 to 18.17 km2 (13.15%) in 2022. Similarly, the average LST increased from 28.25 to 31.78°C. This indicated that the rapid growth of urban development was the primary factor behind the rise in LST. Therefore, it was deemed crucial to create a smart urban land use plan to mitigate the impacts of microclimate change.

Biogenic Volatile Organic Compound Emission and Its Response to Land Cover Changes in China During 2001–2020 Using an Improved High‐Precision Vegetation Data Set

AbstractBiogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) are regarded as important precursors for ozone and secondary organic aerosol, mainly from vegetation emissions. In the context of the expanding trend of vegetation greening, the development of high‐precision vegetation data and accurate BVOC emission estimates are essential to develop effective air pollution control measures. In this study, by integrating the multi‐source vegetation cover data, we established a high‐resolution vegetation distribution (HRVD) data set to develop a high spatio‐temporal resolution emission inventory and investigated the impact of different land cover data sets on emission simulation and impact of land cover change on BVOC emissions during 2001–2020. The annual total BVOC emissions in China for 2020 was 15.66 Tg, which were mainly from trees. The emissions simulated by CNLUCC and MODIS data sets were 1.53% and 1.72% higher than those simulated by HRVD data sets, respectively. The spatial distribution of emission differences was consistent with that of land cover differences. The simulated BVOC emissions by the HRVD data set had the best accuracy as they improved the bias between modeling and observation from 69.06% to 65.35% and decreased the underprediction of observations by a factor of 2.13 compared with simulation by MEGAN default vegetation data. The annual BVOC emissions caused by changing vegetation distribution and LAIv (LAI of vegetation covered surfaces) enhanced at a rate of 72.06 Gg yr−1 during 2001–2020. LAIv was the main driver of emission variations. The total OH reactivity of the resulted BVOC emissions increased at a rate of 1.59 s−1 yr−1, with isoprene contributed the most.

Identification of High-Quality Vegetation Areas in Hubei Province Based on an Optimized Vegetation Health Index

This research proposes an optimized method for identifying high-quality vegetation areas, with a focus on forest ecosystems, using an improved Vegetation Health Index (VHI). The study introduces the Land Cover Vegetation Health Index (LCVHI), which integrates the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and the Temperature Condition Index (TCI) with land cover data. Utilizing MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite imagery and Google Earth Engine (GEE), the study assesses the impact of land cover changes on vegetation health, with particular attention to forested areas. The application of the LCVHI demonstrates that forests exhibit a VHI approximately 25% higher than that of croplands, and wetlands show an 18% higher index compared to grasslands. Analysis of data from 2012 to 2022 in Hubei Province, China, reveals an overall upward trend in vegetation health, highlighting the effectiveness of environmental protection and forest management measures. Different land cover types, including forests, wetlands, and grasslands, significantly impact vegetation health, with forests and wetlands contributing most positively. These findings provide important scientific evidence for regional and global ecological management strategies, supporting the development of forest conservation policies and sustainable land use practices. The research results offer valuable insights into the effective management of regional ecological dynamics.

Impact of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) Changes on Carbon Stocks and Economic Implications in Calabria Using Google Earth Engine (GEE).

Terrestrial ecosystems play a crucial role in global carbon cycling by sequestering carbon from the atmosphere and storing it primarily in living biomass and soil. Monitoring terrestrial carbon stocks is essential for understanding the impacts of changes in land use on carbon sequestration. This study investigates the potential of remote sensing techniques and the Google Earth Engine to map and monitor changes in the forests of Calabria (Italy) over the past two decades. Using satellite-sourced Corine land cover datasets and the InVEST model, changes in Land Use Land Cover (LULC), and carbon concentrations are analyzed, providing insights into the carbon dynamics of the region. Furthermore, cellular automata and Markov chain techniques are used to simulate the future spatial and temporal dynamics of LULC. The results reveal notable fluctuations in LULC; specifically, settlement and bare land have expanded at the expense of forested and grassland areas. These land use and land cover changes significantly declined the overall carbon stocks in Calabria between 2000 and 2024, resulting in notable economic impacts. The region experienced periods of both decline and growth in carbon concentration, with overall losses resulting in economic impacts up to EUR 357.57 million and carbon losses equivalent to 6,558,069.68 Mg of CO 2 emissions during periods of decline. Conversely, during periods of carbon gain, the economic benefit reached EUR 41.26 million, with sequestered carbon equivalent to 756,919.47 Mg of CO 2 emissions. This research aims to highlight the critical role of satellite data in enhancing our understanding and development of comprehensive strategies for managing carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystems.

Conservation of the Mount Bawakaraeng Water Resources Area as a Form of Water Resources Management Through Sustainable and Environmentally Sound Development Strategies

Objective: To assess the impact of land cover change on the problems of erosion, sedimentation, flooding, and water scarcity in the Jeneberang watershed and to formulate comprehensive policy and strategy recommendations for the conservation and sustainable management of water resources in the Mount Bawakaraeng area. Metode: This research use of method of conducting legal research known as normative – empirical method, which combine aspects of normative law with data or empirical components. This method is also used to learn how normative legal provisions (laws) are applied to each specific legal event that takes place in community. Results: The change in land use has led to an increase in erosion, sedimentation, flooding, and water scarcity in the Jeneberang Watershed. Deforestation and forest degradation in the upstream area of the Jeneberang watershed have caused various problems related to unsustainable water resource management. Conclusion: the need for a comprehensive and integrated approach in water resources management in the Mount Bawakaraeng area, guided by Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the principles of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM). This includes: Strengthening legal and regulatory frameworks for forest and land conservation, Promoting sustainable land management practices among local communities, Improving coordination and collaboration among stakeholders in watersheds, Improving monitoring, data collection, and evidence-based decision-making, Providing alternative livelihood opportunities to reduce pressure on natural resources.

Analysis Of Land Use And Land Cover Changes In Port Harcourt Metropolis Using Geospatial Techniques

The study examined Land Use and Land Cover Changes in Port Harcourt Metropolis Using Geospatial Techniques from 1990 to 2020. The study made use of geospatial and longitudinal data sourced from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), employing Google Earth Engine to analyse Landsat and Google Earth Imagery of the area. Utilizing satellite imagery with a spatial resolution of 30 meters by 30 meters, supplemented with high-resolution Google Earth imagery, the study offers an extensive concept of the dynamic changes in land use in the four epochs of 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020. The methodology entails processing and analysing satellite images to identify and classify different land use and land cover types as well as tracking their changes over time. This technique allows for precise mapping and assessment of the trend, extent, rate, and spatial patterns of land use changes. The study employed supervised classification, change detection, and temporal analysis, to ensure robust and accurate results. ANOVA statistics was deployed to test the stated hypothesis for the study. The findings revealed a drastic reduction in land use coverage for the various land use classes in the epochs studied. Open spaces showed a reduction from 62,262.2ha (58.92%) in 1990 to 41,832ha (39.32%) in 2020; farmland reduced from 21,172.5ha (20.04%) in 1990 to 1,474.65ha (1.4%) in 2020; built-up area increased from 9,006.03ha (8.52%) in 1990 to 41,502.8 (39.28%) in 2022; water bodies increased from 1,529.73ha (1.45%) in 1990 to 3,424.32ha (3.24%) in 2020. These changes have profound implications for environmental sustainability, urban planning, and resource management in the area. The study concludes that there has been substantial land use and land cover changes in Port Harcourt metropolis, driven primarily by urbanization. Thus, it is recommended that the government implement stricter urban planning and sustainable land management practices to mitigate the impact of rapid land use and land cover changes in Port Harcourt

Addressing the impact of land use land cover changes on land surface temperature using machine learning algorithms

Over the past two and a half decades, rapid urbanization has led to significant land use and land cover (LULC) changes in Kabul province, Afghanistan. To assess the impact of LULC changes on land surface temperature (LST), Kabul province was divided into four LULC classes applying the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm using the Landsat satellite images from 1998 to 2022. The LST was assessed using Landsat data from the thermal band. The Cellular Automata-Logistic Regression (CA-LR) model was applied to predict the future patterns of LULC and LST for 2034 and 2046. Results showed significant changes in LULC classes, as the built-up areas increased about 9.37%, while the bare soil and vegetation cover decreased 7.20% and 2.35%, respectively, from 1998 to 2022. The analysis of annual LST revealed that built-up areas showed the highest mean LST, followed by bare soil and vegetation. The future simulation results indicate an expected increase in built-up areas to 17.08% and 23.10% by 2034 and 2046, respectively, compared to 11.23% in 2022. Similarly, the simulation results for LST indicated that the area experiencing the highest LST class (≥ 32 °C) is expected to increase to 27.01% and 43.05% by 2034 and 2046, respectively, compared to 11.21% in 2022. The results indicate that LST increases considerably as built-up areas increase and vegetation cover decreases, revealing a direct link between urbanization and rising temperatures.