Impact Of Climate Change Research Articles

A scenario–neutral approach to climate change in glacier mass balance modeling

Abstract Scenario–neutral methods are commonly used to rapidly compare system responses to changes in climate. Using glacier mass balance as a system response, we present a bottom-up, scenario–neutral method as an effective tool for preliminary and overview studies on glacier sensitivity and a complementary approach to traditional top–down methods. The method's main characteristic is its visual result: two–dimensional response surfaces depicting glacier mass balance. Their axes represent perturbations in temperature and precipitation relative to a baseline. The simplicity of our approach makes it applicable to all global glaciers. As a proof–of–concept, the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) is used to perform a scenario–neutral glacier sensitivity analysis for four glaciers. In addition, the integration with a top–down approach is demonstrated by overlaying temperature and precipitation from four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Finally, the benefits of the method are discussed for decision–making and science communication. Assessing results shows that overall, this scenario–neutral method can provide useful information for the research of climate change impact on glacier mass, from aiding study design to science communication.

Estimation of above-ground biomass in dry temperate forests using Sentinel-2 data and random forest: a case study of the Swat area of Pakistan

Accurate mapping of above-ground biomass (AGB) is essential for carbon stock quantification and climate change impact assessment, particularly in mountainous areas. This study applies a random forest (RF) regression model to predict the spatial distribution of AGB in Usho (site A) and Utror (site B) forests located in the northern mountainous region of Pakistan. The predicted maps elucidate AGB variations across these sites, with non-forest areas excluded based on an normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) threshold value of <0.4. Three different combinations of input datasets were used to predict the biomass, including spectral bands (SBs) only, vegetation indexes (VIs) only, and a combination of both spectral bands and vegetation indexes (SBVIs). Utilizing SBs, the biomass ranged between 150 and 286 mg/ha in site A and 99 and 376 mg/ha in site B. Meanwhile, using VIs indicated a biomass range of 163 Mg/ha–337 Mg/ha and 131–392 Mg/ha for sites A and B, respectively. The combination of spectral bands and vegetation indexes yielded AGB values of 145–290 Mg/ha in site A and 116–389 Mg/ha in site B. The northern and western regions of site A, characterized by higher altitudes and lower forest density, notably showed lower biomass values than other regions. Conversely, similar regions in site B, situated at lower latitudes, demonstrated different biomass ranges. The RF model exhibited robust accuracy, with R2 values of 0.74 and 0.83 for spectral bands and vegetation indexes, respectively. However, with a combination of both, an R2 of 0.79 was achieved. Furthermore, altitudinal gradients significantly influence the biomass distribution across both sites, with specific elevation ranges yielding optimal results. The AGB variation along the slope further corroborated these findings. In both sites, the western aspects showed the highest biomass across all combinations of input datasets. The variable importance analysis highlighted that ARVI8a, NDI45, Band12, Band11, TSAVI8, and ARVI8a are significant predictors in sites A and B. This comprehensive analysis enhances our understanding of AGB distribution in the mountainous forests of Pakistan, offering valuable insights for forest management and ecological studies.

Photosynthetic temperature responses in leaves and canopies: why temperature optima may disagree at different scales.

Understanding how canopy-scale photosynthesis responds to temperature is of paramount importance for realistic prediction of the likely impact of climate change on forest growth. The effects of temperature on leaf-scale photosynthesis have been extensively documented but data demonstrating the temperature response of canopy-scale photosynthesis are relatively rare, and the mechanisms that determine the response are not well quantified. Here, we compared leaf- and canopy-scale photosynthesis responses to temperature measured in a whole-tree chamber experiment and tested mechanisms that could explain the difference between leaf and crown scale temperature optima for photosynthesis. We hypothesised that 1) there is a large contribution of non-light saturated leaves to total crown photosynthesis; 2) photosynthetic component processes vary vertically through the canopy following the gradient in incident light; and 3) seasonal temperature acclimation of photosynthetic biochemistry has a significant role in determining the overall temperature response of canopy photosynthesis. We tested these hypotheses using three models of canopy radiation interception and photosynthesis parameterized with leaf-level physiological data and estimates of canopy leaf area. Our results identified the influence of non-light saturated leaves as a key determinant of the lower temperature optimum of canopy photosynthesis, which reduced the temperature optimum of canopy photosynthesis by 6-8°C compared to the leaf scale. Further, we demonstrate the importance of accounting for within-canopy variation and seasonal temperature acclimation of photosynthetic biochemistry in determining the magnitude of canopy photosynthesis. Overall, our study identifies key processes that need to be incorporated in terrestrial biosphere models to accurately predict temperature responses of whole-tree photosynthesis.

Major distribution shifts are projected for key rangeland grasses under a high-emission scenario in East Africa at the end of the 21st century

Grassland landscapes are important ecosystems in East Africa, providing habitat and grazing grounds for wildlife and livestock and supporting pastoralism, an essential part of the agricultural sector. Since future grassland availability directly affects the future mobility needs of pastoralists and wildlife, we aim to model changes in the distribution of key grassland species under climate change. Here we combine a global and regional climate model with a machine learning-based species distribution model to understand the impact of regional climate change on different key grass species. The application of a dynamical downscaling step allows us to capture the fine-scale effects of the region’s complex climate, its variability and future changes. We show that the co-occurrence of the analysed grass species is reduced in large parts of eastern Africa, and particularly in the Turkana region, under the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario for the last 30 years of the 21st century. Our results suggest that future climate change will alter the natural resource base, with potentially negative impacts on pastoralism and wildlife in East Africa.

Seasonal Variations in Multiple Sclerosis Relapses in Oman: A Single Tertiary Centre Experience

(1) Background and Aims: The seasonal factors influencing multiple sclerosis (MS) relapses remain elusive. This study aims to investigate the seasonal variation of MS relapses in Oman and compare it globally. (2) Subject and Methods: This retrospective study was conducted on N = 183 Omani MS patients treated at Sultan Qaboos University Hospital, a tertiary hospital in Muscat, Oman, over sixteen-year period (2007–2022). Demographic and clinical data of all MS patients were juxtaposed with the monthly weather data during this period, using descriptive and inferential statistical techniques. (3) Results: Among the N = 183 MS patients studied, 508 relapses were recorded during the study period. The average number of relapses per patient was 2.8 (range: 1–15). There were significant seasonal variations in MS relapse rate, with the highest prevalence in the winter months of January and February. However, no correlation was found between MS relapses and other climatic parameters (humidity, temperature, and rainfall). (4) Conclusion: The seasonal patterns of MS relapses in Oman differ from other parts of the world, which the local clinicians should take into account while diagnosing and making management decisions. The potential impact of climate change on the anomalous changes in the seasonality of MS relapses warrants further investigation.

Climate emotions, thoughts, and plans among US adolescents and young adults: a cross-sectional descriptive survey and analysis by political party identification and self-reported exposure to severe weather events.

Climate change has adverse effects on youth mental health and wellbeing, but limited large-scale data exist globally or in the USA. Understanding the patterns and consequences of climate-related distress among US youth can inform necessary responses at the individual, community, and policy level. A cross-sectional descriptive online survey was done of US youth aged 16-25 years from all 50 states and Washington, DC, between July 20 and Nov 7, 2023, via the Cint digital survey marketplace. The survey assessed: climate-related emotions and thoughts, including indicators of mental health; relational aspects of climate-related emotions; beliefs about who or what has responsibility for causing and responding to climate change; desired and planned actions in response to climate change; and emotions and thoughts about the US Government response to climate change. Respondents were asked whether they had been affected by various severe weather events linked to climate change and for their political party identification. Sample percentages were weighted according to 2022 US census age, sex, and race estimates. To test the effects of political party identification and self-reported exposure to severe weather events on climate-related thoughts and beliefs we used linear and logistic regression models, which included terms for political party identification, the number of self-reported severe weather event types in respondents' area of residence in the past year, and demographic control variables. We evaluated survey responses from 15 793 individuals (weighted proportions: 80·5% aged 18-25 years and 19·5% aged 16-17 years; 48·8% female and 51·2% male). Overall, 85·0% of respondents endorsed being at least moderately worried, and 57·9% very or extremely worried, about climate change and its impacts on people and the planet. 42·8% indicated an impact of climate change on self-reported mental health, and 38·3% indicated that their feelings about climate change negatively affect their daily life. Respondents reported negative thoughts about the future due to climate change and actions planned in response, including being likely to vote for political candidates who support aggressive climate policy (72·8%). In regression models, self-reported exposure to more types of severe weather events was significantly associated with stronger endorsement of climate-related distress and desire and plans for action. Political party identification as Democrat or as Independent or Other (vs Republican) was also significantly associated with stronger endorsement of distress and desire and plans for action, although a majority of self-identified Republicans reported at least moderate distress. For all survey outcomes assessed in the models, the effect of experiencing more types of severe weather events did not significantly differ by political party identification. Climate change is causing widespread distress among US youth and affecting their beliefs and plans for the future. These effects may intensify, across the political spectrum, as exposure to climate-related severe weather events increases. Avaaz Foundation.

Validating the Climate Resiliency Framework for Road Projects in KPK, Pakistan

This study validates a recently developed framework aimed at assessing the climate resiliency of road projects, recognizing the increasing impact of climate change on infrastructure, especially transportation networks such as roads. The framework provides a standardized and systematic approach for evaluating how well road projects can withstand and adapt to climate change impacts, including challenges like flooding, extreme temperatures, and rising sea levels. Conducting the research through a case study approach, we applied the framework to three specific road projects: Drabo Road, Chino Road, and Shahi-Barawal Road. The results revealed the resiliency scores for each project—Drabo Road scored 55.5%, indicating a partially resilient status; Chino Road received a score of 47.9%, signifying an acceptable status with room for improvement, also classified as partially resilient; Shahi-Barawal Road obtained a score of 50.2%, placing it in an acceptable and partially resilient category. This investigation showcases the framework's effectiveness in identifying vulnerabilities and recommending adaptation measures. The research contributes to the development of a practical tool that can assist engineers, planners, and policymakers in making informed decisions regarding the design, construction, and maintenance of road infrastructure in the face of climate change. Ultimately, the goal is to enhance the overall resilience of road projects and minimize potential damage caused by climate change impacts.

Effects of Urbanization on Community Composition and Conditions of Birds in Wetland Ecosystems

Urbanization in wetlands has negatively impacted bird species diversity and populations. It is important to be able to predict the consequences for avian biodiversity and to identify wetlands of special value to the maintenance of local wetland communities. This study involved conducting point counts across four permanent urban wetlands at the University of Florida and three retention ponds in the Gainesville, FL vicinity to observe patterns in wetland bird species diversity and populations. This study also utilized data from the Florida Museum of Natural History (FLMNH) to explore differences in phenotypes of wetland bird specimens. The local wetlands showed trends where specific species thrived in one type of area versus the other. Egrets were frequently observed in larger wetlands, and double-crested cormorants were observed more frequently in smaller ones. Additionally, retention ponds showed promise as a conservation method, dependent on their depth and size. The largest retention pond attracted many bird species in great numbers, showing promise for methods to negate negative the impact of human activity and climate change. Characterization for data collected at the FLMNH on both weight and species analyzed across numerous regional locations showed a negative trend between specimen weight and time progression.

Factors Affecting the Sustainability of Corporates in Polluting Sectors

Corporate sustainability performance is gaining ever greater importance. The negative impact of climate change is manifested through heavy air, water and soil pollution. Polluting sectors, as the major players, are characterized by large amounts of emissions, waste and consumption of resources, and therefore have a larger negative impact on the environment. Companies operating in polluting sectors are recognized globally as the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions; thus, their performance is widely debated. Despite their character, such companies strive for higher profitability, better financial performance and operational efficiency. However, higher financial resources create the potential for innovation investments in companies. It is widely accepted that research and experimental development (R&D) expenditures enable new business ideas, models, products, services, and processes. However, while pursuing sustainability targets, financial results could be directed towards sustainability performance. The purpose of this paper is to analyze how the financial and innovation results of companies in polluting sectors interact with sustainability performance scores. For it, we have identified three essential pillars of sustainability: environmental, governance, and social. Using ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions, models were developed for each pillar of sustainability, including corporate financial performance indicators and R&D expenditures. The obtained results provide the insights that a company operating in polluting sector size and turnover significantly interacts with all pillars of sustainability. However, we also found that the corporate debt ratio, earnings ratio, and current liquidity have a significant relation only with environmental and social sustainability indicators.

Projection of climate change impact on main climate variables and assessment of the future of Köppen–Geiger climate classification in Iran

AbstractHuman society and the environment are facing significant challenges due to climate change. Climate change is projected to impact main climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation. Changes in main climate variables affect climate classification and alter climate zone maps. In this research, first, the projection of temperature and precipitation in 30 main stations of Iran under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6) for the end of the twenty-first century (2071–2099) was carried out. Then, the future of climate zone maps was assessed in Iran by Köppen-Geiger climate classification. The evaluation of the model data based on observation data for the period of 1991–2020 showed an acceptable correlation, with R-square and RMSE values in the ranges of 0.67–0.96 and 2.44–8.38, respectively. Results showed that the temperature in the future period (2071–2099) will increase by 1–4.7 °C under all scenarios compared to the historical study period (1991–2020), while the precipitation will either increase or decrease depending on the season and the specific climate change scenario. Assessment of future climate classifications revealed that the BW (arid desert) and BS (semi-arid steppe) categories will increase, as classified by Köppen-Geiger, will increase. At the same time, Ds and Cs (dry summer) classifications will decrease in during the study period over Iran. These findings provide policymakers with some insights into how to deal with the impacts of climate change in the future and implement some measures now.

The Synergistic Effect of the Same Climatic Factors on Water Use Efficiency Varies between Daily and Monthly Scales

The coupled processes of ecosystem carbon and water cycles are usually evaluated using the water use efficiency (WUE), and improving WUE is crucial for maintaining the sustainability of ecosystems. However, it remains unclear whether the WUE in different ecosystem responds synchronously to the synergistic effect of the same climate factors at daily and monthly scales. Therefore, we employed a machine learning-driven factor analysis method and a geographic detector model, and we quantitatively evaluated the individual effects and the synergistic effect of climate factors on the daily mean water use efficiency (WUED) and monthly mean water use efficiency (WUEM) in different ecosystems in China. Our results showed that (1) among the 10 carbon flux monitoring sites in China, WUED and WUEM exhibited the highest positive correlations with the near-surface air humidity and the highest negative correlation with solar radiation. The correlation between WUEM and climate factors was generally greater than that between WUED and climate factors. (2) There were significant differences in the order of importance and degree of impact of the same climate factors on WUED and WUEM in the different ecosystems. Among the 10 carbon flux monitoring sites in China, the near-surface air humidity imposed the greatest influence on the WUED and WUEM changes, followed by the near-surface water vapor pressure. (3) There were significant differences in the synergistic effects of the same climate factors on WUED and WUEM in the different ecosystems. Among the 10 carbon flux monitoring sites in China, the WUED variability was most sensitive to the synergistic effect of solar radiation and photosynthetically active radiation, while the WUEM variability was most sensitive to the synergistic effect of the near-surface air humidity and soil moisture. The research results indicated that synchronous responses of the WUE in very few ecosystems to the same climate factors and their synergistic effect occurred at daily and monthly scales. This finding enhances the understanding of sustainable water resource use and the impact of climate change on water use efficiency, providing crucial insights for improving climate-adaptive ecosystem management and sustainable water resource utilization across different ecosystems.

Physical climate change exposure and firms' adaptation strategy

AbstractResearch SummaryThis article examines whether and how firms adapt to physical exposures to climate change. I build a novel dataset that compiles information on the adaptation strategies of publicly traded companies around the globe and merge it with climate science data. I find that firms are sensitive to the nature and level of forecasted climate change exposures, and that they adapt more often and more completely to those most salient to their business. Increased physical climate exposure heightens the perceived impact of climate change, leading to a higher degree of adaptation. Furthermore, the positive relationship between firms' climate change exposure and their adaptation is stronger for firms with greater environmental, social, and corporate governance capabilities and those with longer time horizons.Managerial SummaryCompanies are increasingly exposed to the physical impacts of climate change, yet little is known about how they adapt to these long‐term, systemic, and uncertain changes. This study investigates corporate adaptation strategies in response to climate change. By analyzing climate science data and climate change disclosure information from publicly traded companies worldwide, I find that most firms do not adapt to different physical climate change exposures. They adapt more often and more completely when facing higher forecasted climate exposures. Furthermore, firms' environmental, social, and corporate governance capabilities and their time horizons influence their adaptation to greater climate exposures. These findings suggest that targeted interventions may be necessary to improve corporate adaptation to climate change.

Assessing the Impact of Urbanization and Climate Change on Hydrological Processes in a Suburban Catchment

Global urbanization, population growth, and climate change have considerably impacted water resources, making sustainable water resource management (WRM) essential. Understanding the changes in hydrological components is important for effective WRM, particularly in cities such as Higashi-Hiroshima, which is known for its saké brewing industry. This study used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with Hydrological Response Units (HRUs) to achieve high spatial precision in assessing the impacts of land use change and climate variability on hydrological components in a suburban catchment in western Japan. Over the 30-year study period (1980s–2000s), land use change was the main driver of hydrological variability, whereas climate change played a minor role. Increased surface runoff, along with decrease in groundwater recharge, evapotranspiration, and baseflow, resulted in an overall reduction in water yield, with a 34.9% decrease in groundwater recharge attributed to the transformation of paddy fields into residential areas. Sustainable WRM practices, including water conservation, recharge zone protection, and green infrastructure, are recommended to balance urban development with water sustainability. These findings offer valuable insights into the strategies for managing water resources in rapidly urbanizing regions worldwide, emphasizing the need for an integrated WRM system that considers both land use and climate change impacts.

Inhibiting or Contributing? How Global Liberal Forces Impact Climate Change Skepticism

Although climate change remains a top environmental threat, significant portions of the global population continue to exhibit climate change skepticism. Currently, an extensive literature identifies the micro-level determinants of climate skepticism, often manifesting as a form of populist “backlash” to the adverse effects of globalization. However, the potential of macro-level global cultural forces—particularly embeddedness in liberal world society—to counter such pushback is unclear. Using multilevel modeling to analyze International Social Survey Program data spanning 37 countries from 2000 to 2020, we find that in general, increased embeddedness is linked to reduced climate skepticism. However, when global liberal forces encounter anti-liberal undercurrents within nation-states, a situation we refer to as cultural dissonance, the impact of liberal world society on tempering skepticism varies. Embeddedness mitigates skepticism at the national level, particularly within authoritarian regimes, but not at the individual level, especially among right-wing individuals. Paradoxically, world society also heightens ideological polarization of individual worldviews on climate change. By illuminating the contradictory role of liberal world society, which simultaneously exacerbates and inhibits anti-liberal, populist attitudes about climate change, we advance existing work examining the post-liberal turn and holds promise for making sense of other issue domains where liberal perspectives are contested.

Impact of climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution on the incidence and manifestation of depressive and anxiety disorders

Impact of climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution on the incidence and manifestation of depressive and anxiety disorders

Quantifying Soil Loss in the Brazilian Savanna Ecosystem: Current Rates and Anticipated Impact of Climate Changes

ABSTRACTThe Brazilian Savanna (Cerrado) is the second‐largest South American biome that corresponds to almost two‐third of the national agricultural production. Extensive agricultural‐driven land‐use changes have significantly altered the landscape, causing increased soil erosion. Furthermore, projections of climate change effects on the Cerrado raise concerns about the potential exacerbation of soil loss and its consequences on ecosystem sustainability. This study investigated soil loss for the Cerrado ecosystem by assessing current rates and projecting the potential effects of future climate change. Current soil loss was based on experimental plots (100 m2) during 7 years maintained under typical main land cover in Brazil (sugarcane, pasture, Cerrado, and bare soil). Erosivity, by using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), was estimated from observations, parameters of erodibility, and land cover. To assess the future soil loss (2100), we used the calibrated USLE equation with yearly erosivity derived from 12 downscaled and bias‐corrected SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios of CMIP6 climate model projections. Current agricultural practices induce considerable erosion, where sugarcane has 3.4 times higher soil loss as compared with the natural soil cover. Regarding future SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios (2100), we estimated an increase of 4.9% and 7.6% in soil loss, respectively, for all land covers. The observed soil loss rates underscore the critical importance of implementing sustainable land management practices to mitigate further soil degradation. Climate change may impose additional stress on the Cerrado ecosystem, amplifying the urgency for adaptive measures to safeguard this important biome.

The impact of climate change on banks loan portfolios and strategies for effective climate risk management

As extreme weather events continue to impact every continent and the world moves towards establishing a lower-carbon economy, the banking industry is expected to incorporate climate risk into their risk management practices. Climate change poses significant risks to bank loan portfolios through increased physical and transition risks. This study systematically analysed the literature to identify effective strategies for managing these risks. Our findings reveal that climate-related events can lead to substantial loan defaults and credit losses. To mitigate these impacts, banks can integrate climate risk into their risk management frameworks, adopt sustainable lending practices, and diversify their portfolios. Some banks have already implemented measures to mitigate climate risk through insurance policies, while others are incorporating sustainability criteria into their lending practices, such as financing green projects. By proactively addressing climate risks, banks can protect their portfolios, enhance financial resilience and contribute to a low-carbon economy.

Understanding the local implications of climate change: Unpacking the experiences of smallholder farmers in Thulamela Municipality, Vhembe District, Limpopo Province, South Africa

Climate change is experienced locally. However, climate change impact assessments are often done at the international, regional and national levels. Local level impacts are less prolific. When international, regional and national level predictions are applied to the local level, they are out of context. Therefore, it is important to understand the local impact of climate change to enhance formulation of suitable adaptation strategies. This study aimed to understand the local impacts of climate change on smallholder farmers in Thulamela Municipality, Vhembe District, Limpopo Province, South Africa. The actual experiences of smallholder farmers were unpacked. Face-to-face interviews with farmers in the region were conducted to solicit data on the climatic changes experienced, the impacts on crop and livestock production and social wellbeing. Data on the intensity of the impacts was also solicited. Results show that the experienced climatic changes emanated from temperature changes and shifts in rainfall patterns. The impacts on crop and livestock production as well as social wellbeing are all negative. Farmers indicated that the impacts were mostly average to high. It is concluded that smallholder farmers are aware that climate change impacts are negatively affecting their livelihoods. Investments towards building the capacity of smallholder farmers are pertinent.

Climate Change Impact on Fruit Crops and Mitigation through Climate-Smart Production Practices

Climate change poses significant threats to fruit crops worldwide, affecting growth, development, and productivity. Warmer temperatures disrupt flowering patterns, reduce fruit set, and increase pollination failures, leading to lower yields and decreased fruit quality. Climate change also alters suitable production areas, chilling hours, and pest dynamics, further exacerbating the issue. To address these challenges, this study highlights the importance of implementing climate resilience strategies, such as cultivating climate-ready crops, adopting low-chill and drought-tolerant varieties, selecting suitable rootstocks, and utilizing agro-techniques like fruit bagging and mulching. Additionally, specific chemicals like chitosan and the Bordeaux mixture can help mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on fruit crops. By adopting these strategies, fruit producers can enhance crop resilience, reduce physiological disorders, and promote sustainable productivity in the face of climate change.

Impact of Human Activities and Climate Change on Grassland Productivity in Xilingol League

Impact of Human Activities and Climate Change on Grassland Productivity in Xilingol League