Impact Of Climate Change Research Articles

Triple planetary crisis: why healthcare professionals should care

Humanity currently faces an ecological crisis with devastating consequences to all living species. While climate change is estimated to lead to 250,000 extra deaths per year between 2030 and 2050, pollution is known to cause 9 million premature deaths: a figure much greater than the deaths caused by AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria combined. The healthcare sector is both burdened by, and contributes to, the impact of climate change and environmental degradation. Amidst glaring evidence of the interdependence of human health and the eco system, there is an urgent call for healthcare professionals to concern themselves with the triple planetary threat humanity currently faces. Without immediate mitigative measures, the future seems uncertain. Some healthcare systems at local, national and global levels have taken numerous initiatives to address, mitigate and adapt to these changes, however, these are not sufficient. A lack of awareness among healthcare professionals of the ecological crisis, its interconnectedness, and the role of healthcare in it, plays a significant role in the lack responsibility of healthcare professionals in this space. Therefore, this paper presents a discussion of the current landscape of the triple threat of climate change, loss of biodiversity, and pollution, while emphasising the contribution of healthcare professionals to it. Furthermore, interrelated concepts such as planetary health and eco-anxiety are briefly discussed. This perspective paper also presents several key prospective research areas that may lay the foundation for motivating healthcare professionals to play an active role in preventing and mitigating the ecological crises humanity currently faces.

Flammable Futures – Storylines of climatic impacts on wildfire events and palm oil plantations in Indonesia

Abstract Wildfire events are driven by complex interactions of climate and anthropogenic interventions. Predictions of future wildfire events, their extremity, and their impact on the environment and economy must consider the interactions between these drivers. Economic policy and land use decisions influence the susceptibility of an area to climate extremes, the probability of burning, and future decision making. To better understand how climate-driven drought events and adaptation efforts affect burned area, agricultural production losses, and land use decisions, we developed a storyline approach centered on Indonesia’s 2015 fire events, which saw significant (>5%) production losses of palm oil. We explored analogous events under three warming conditions and two storylines (multi-model ensemble mean climate change and high impact). We employed a model chain consisting of CMIP6 climate modeling to quantify climate change impacts, a wildfire climate impacts and adaptation model (FLAM) to predict burned areas, and the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) to predict resultant production losses and socio-economic consequences in the oil palm sector in Indonesia and, by extension, the EU. FLAM is a mechanistic fire model used to reproduce and project wildfires based on various criteria and input variables; GLOBIOM is a global economic land use model, which assesses land use competition and provides economic impacts based on scenario data. We found that total burned area and production loss can increase by up to 25% and lead to local price increases up to 70%, with only minor differences beyond 2.5 degrees of warming. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interactions of future warming, drought conditions, and extreme weather events when predicting their impacts on oil palm losses and burned area. This study sets the stage for further exploration on the impacts of land management policies on local and international environments and economies in the context of global warming.

Four decades in the vineyard: the impact of climate change on grapevine phenology and wine quality in northern Italy

The wine sector, among the most profitable agricultural segments, has been markedly affected by the ongoing climate change impacts, such as warmer climate conditions with higher frequency of extreme temperatures and a trend of decreasing precipitation. All this results in higher evaporative demand and therefore higher occurrence of water stress events leading to advancement of temperature-sensitive phenological stages (e.g., budburst and ripening). Such negative effects eventually affect berry development and quality, especially in historically valuable viticultural areas, forcing winegrowers to work within a compressed harvest period to maintain wine typicity. In this work we examined the relationship between environmental variables (air and soil temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and solar radiation), phenology, berry, and wine quality for the two varieties (Chardonnay and Teroldego) in Trentino Alto-Adige/South Tyrol (Italy) over 36 years. Huglin Index (a bioclimatic heat index), growing degree days (measure of heat accumulation), and overall mean temperature showed linear increase (p < 0.001) in the last years, while no variations were recorded for precipitations. Despite no major effects being observed for phenological interval lengths, the onset of most of the phenological stages for both varieties had significantly (p < 0.001) advanced. However, i) early budburst pushed the budburst-flowering interphase by -1.2 days every two years toward putative colder periods with increased late frost probability and potential slower phenological progression towards flowering, and ii) early veraison shifted the veraison-ripening interphase by 0.25 day per year into warmer periods that oppositely impose faster phenological advancement. Hence, a substantial equilibrium in the seasonal growing length over years was maintained. Potential carry-over effects from the previous season were observed, particularly associated with heat requirements to unlock early phenological events, raising additional concerns on the additive effects of climate change to viticulture. Generally, white wine quality increased (p < 0.05) over the years, while red and sparkling wines remained unaffected. This was putatively related to accurate harvest date decision-making dictated by berry quality parameters: sugar-to-acidity ratio for Chardonnay and bunch sanitary status for Teroldego. Overall, this work provides evidence of the dynamics involved in climate change, and, to our knowledge, its overlooked effects on viticulture, thus providing new insights that can contribute to further developing adaptive strategies.

The role of wealth inequality in community management of a common-pool resources through voluntary sanctioning

Climate change is forecasted to drastically alter freshwater fish and mussel species distribution. Hydropower dam reservoirs, which modify downstream thermal regimes, may interact with climate change's impact on species distribution. This distribution shift may feedback, affecting hydropower operation costs through environmental compliance. We investigated how freshwater species distribution will shift due to climate change and hydropower reservoirs in the conterminous United States (CONUS), and how this will affect biodiversity mitigation costs for privately-owned hydropower plants. In general, using environmental niche modeling, we found that climate change increased the range of both freshwater fish and mussel species on average. For fish, this was mainly due to the expanded habitat for warm-water and cool-water fish species despite the diminish in habitat for cold-water species. Compared to climate change, thermal stratification of hydropower reservoirs had a small impact on the future range changes of these species in the tailwaters but showed an interaction with the effect of climate change on species range. Geographically, we projected an increase of species richness in the west and a decrease in the central and east of CONUS for fish, while projecting uniform increase for mussels. With this shift in species distribution, we estimated that the Northwest region will face the largest increase in mitigation cost, while the majority of plants in the Southeast will experience a decrease in cost.

Chromosomal-level reference genome assembly of muskox (Ovibos moschatus) from Banks Island in the Canadian Arctic, a resource for conservation genomics

The muskox (Ovibos moschatus), an integral component and iconic symbol of arctic biocultural diversity, is under threat by rapid environmental disruptions from climate change. We report a chromosomal-level haploid genome assembly of a muskox from Banks Island in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. The assembly has a contig N50 of 44.7 Mbp, a scaffold N50 of 112.3 Mbp, a complete representation (100%) of the BUSCO v5.2.2 set of 9225 mammalian marker genes and is anchored to the 24 chromosomes of the muskox. Tabulation of heterozygous single nucleotide variants in our specimen revealed a very low level of genetic diversity, which is consistent with recent reports of the muskox having the lowest genome-wide heterozygosity among the ungulates. While muskox populations are currently showing no overt signs of inbreeding depression, environmental disruptions are expected to strain the genomic resilience of the species. One notable impact of rapid climate change in the Arctic is the spread of emerging infectious and parasitic diseases in the muskox, as exemplified by the range expansion of muskox lungworms, and the recent fatal outbreaks of Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae, a pathogen normally associated with domestic swine and poultry. As a genomics resource for conservation management of the muskox against existing and emerging disease modalities, we annotated the genes of the major histocompatibility complex on chromosome 2 and performed an initial assessment of the genetic diversity of this complex. This resource is further supported by the annotation of the principal genes of the innate immunity system, genes that are rapidly evolving and under positive selection in the muskox, genes associated with environmental adaptations, and the genes associated with socioeconomic benefits for Arctic communities such as wool (qiviut) attributes. These annotations will benefit muskox management and conservation.

Effectiveness of wetlands as reservoirs for integrated water resource management in the Ruzizi plain based on water evaluation and planning (WEAP) approach for a climate-resilient future in eastern D.R. Congo

It is widely predicted that climate change’s adverse effects will intensify in the future, and along with inadequate agricultural practices, settlement development, and other anthropic activities, could contribute to rapid wetland degradation and thus exert significant negative effects on local communities. This study sought to develop an approach based on the Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) in the Ruzizi Plain, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where adverse effects of the climate change are increasingly recurrent. Initially, we analyzed the trends of climate data for the last three decades (1990–2022). Subsequently, the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) approach was employed on two contrasting watersheds to estimate current and future water demands in the region and how local wetlands could serve as reservoirs to meeting water demands. Results indicate that the Ruzizi Plain is facing escalating water challenges owing to climate change, rapid population growth, and evolving land-use patterns. These factors are expected to affect water quality and quantity, and thus, increase pressure on wetland ecosystems. The analysis of past data shows recurrence of dry years (SPI ≤ − 1.5), reduced daily low-intensity rainfall (Pmm < 10 mm), and a significant increase in extreme rainfall events (Pmm ≥ 25 mm). The WEAP outcomes revealed significant variations in future water availability, demand, and potential stressors across watersheds. Cropland and livestock are the main water consumers in rural wetlands, while households, cropland (at a lesser extent), and other urban uses exert significant water demands on wetlands located in urban environments. Of three test scenarios, the one presenting wetlands as water reservoirs seemed promising than those considered optimal (based on policies regulating water use) and rational (stationary inputs but with a decrease in daily allocation). These findings highlight the impact of climate change in the Ruzizi plain, emphasizing the urgency of implementing adaptive measures. This study advocates for the necessity of the IWRM approach to enhance water resilience, fostering sustainable development and wetland preservation under changing climate.

Spatiotemporal change of lake shrinkage and its response to the unprecedented heat waves in the middle and lower Yangtze River Basin

ABSTRACT Due to the joint influence of human activities and climate change, lakes experience significant shrinkage or expansion, posing enormous challenges for water resource management and the ecological balance of lake ecosystems. As an important region abundant in water resources in China, the balance of water resources in the middle and lower Yangtze River Basin (MLY) is crucial for region sustainable development. However, to date, few studies have quantitatively analysed the lake area during heat waves in the MLY. To fill this gap, this study selected the summer of 2022, which encountered unprecedented heat waves, to analyse the changes of lake area in the MLY. Specifically, Sentinel-1 images were used as data sources, and the Random Forest (RF) model was applied to extract the monthly area of 62 lakes (area >10 km2) in the MLY from 2019 to 2022. The results showed that: (1) Compared to the Support Vector Machine (SVM) model and the Otsu method, the RF model had the highest accuracy, with its accuracy and Kappa coefficient in the testing samples of 97.14% and 0.94, respectively. During the period from June to September in 2022, the total area of 62 lakes decreased by 3475.50 km2. (2) Compared to the same period in the summer of 2019–2021, 23 lakes (37.10%) were observed to experience shrinkage. Among them, the area of Poyang Lake and Dongting Lake decreased to the level of the previous winter dry seasons in August 2022. (3) Temperature was the most important meteorological factor that caused changes in the lake area in the MLY, compared to precipitation, evaporation, and runoff. This research can help understand the impact of climate change on lakes and provide references for decision-making in the MLY to formulate the strategies of water resource management under the changing climate.

Changes in the air temperature regime across the Dniester River basin at the beginning of the 21st century

The relevance of the chosen topic is based on the goals and objectives of the Water Strategy of Ukraine until 2050 that provides for promotion of studies on the impact of climate change on the water content of Ukrainian rivers. The Dniester River is a transboundary river. It supplies water to Moldova and several regions of Ukraine. Predicting possible changes in the Dniester River's runoff due to global warming will help our society adapt to new climate conditions and take preventive measures. The research of the mountainous part of the watershed is of particular importance, as it is the area of runoff formation. Warming can change contribution of the snow component to the river's feed pattern and affect the total river flow. The object of the study: changes in air temperature due to global warming. The subject of the study: assessment of changes in the temperature regime within the Dniester watershed and impact of such changes on formation of its mountainous part's runoff. The study is aimed at assessing the changes in the air temperature regime within the Dniester River watershed at the beginning of the 21st century and assessing the impact of warming during winter season on formation of mountain rivers' spring floods. The main research methods include the method of difference integral curves and the method of regression analysis. The research materials include average monthly and annual air temperatures at 13 meteorological stations located within the Dniester watershed for the period of 1947-2021. The research indicated that the Dniester watershed is subject to warming. Statistically significant changes in air temperature began in 1988. Fluctuations in average annual air temperatures occur synchronously. Positive statistically significant trends over the entire observation period (1947-2021) were found for average annual air temperatures, average monthly temperatures of both warm and cold periods, and for the winter season. When considering two measurement periods (before 1989 and after), it was found that no statistically significant trends were observed before 1989. They were formed after 1989. It was also discovered that mountainous watersheds of the Ukrainian Carpathians respond to warming by forming negative trends in the fluctuations of average monthly runoff of spring floods.

Overview of Startups Developing Artificial Intelligence for the Energy Sector

The energy industry is experiencing a major change due to fast progress in artificial intelligence (AI). Startup companies in this revolution use AI technologies like Machine Learning (ML), predictive analytics, and optimization algorithms to improve energy efficiency, optimize grid management, and incorporate renewable energy sources. AI-powered solutions allow for a more accurate prediction of demand, immediate monitoring, and automated decision-making processes, significantly enhancing operational efficiency and sustainability. Through promoting a more effective energy system, these advancements play a vital role in the worldwide battle against climate change and carbon dioxide emissions. Adding to the progress of AI, quantum computing (QC) shows great potential despite being a nascent area. The collaboration of AI and QC is poised to transform the energy industry by offering unmatched computational capabilities. This blend of technologies can tackle intricate energy obstacles like enhancing power grids and enhancing battery storage, which traditional computers cannot currently handle. Combining QC with AI speeds up innovation, providing advanced solutions that improve the resilience and efficiency of energy networks. This paper discusses the latest advancements, possible effects, and upcoming paths of new companies leading in AI and QC innovations within the energy industry. Their joint responsibility is highlighted in advancing a sustainable and intelligent energy future, as well as tackling crucial environmental issues and lessening the impact of climate change.

Optimizing climate model selection in regional studies using an adaptive weather type based framework: a case study for extreme heat in Belgium

AbstractSelecting climate model projections is a common practice for regional and local studies. This process often relies on local rather than synoptic variables. Even when synoptic weather types are considered, these are not related to the variable or climate impact driver of interest. Therefore, most selection procedures may not sufficiently account for atmospheric dynamics and climate change impact uncertainties. This study outlines a selection methodology that addresses both these shortcomings. Our methodology first optimizes the Lamb Weather Type classification for the variable and region of interest. In the next step, the representation of the historical synoptic dynamics in Global Climate Models (GCMs) is evaluated and accordingly, low-performing models are excluded. In the last step, indices are introduced that quantify the climate change signals related to the impact of interest. Using these indices, a scoring method results in assessing the suitability of GCMs. To illustrate the applicability of the methodology, a case study of extreme heat in Belgium was carried out. This framework offers a comprehensive method for selecting relevant climate projections, applicable in model ensemble-based research for various climate variables and impact drivers.

Impact of climate change on productivity growth in India

Impact of climate change on productivity growth in India

Impacts of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Three Cytospora Species in Xinjiang, China

Impacts of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Three Cytospora Species in Xinjiang, China

Comprehensive Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on River Water Availability for Irrigation, Wheat Crop Area Coverage, and Irrigation Canal Hydraulic Capacity of Large-Scale Irrigation Scheme in Nepal

Comprehensive Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on River Water Availability for Irrigation, Wheat Crop Area Coverage, and Irrigation Canal Hydraulic Capacity of Large-Scale Irrigation Scheme in Nepal

Increased global warming potential during freeze-thaw cycle is primarily due to the contribution of N2O rather than CO2

While freeze-thaw cycle (FTC) can influence greenhouse gas emissions, the specific greenhouse gas that responds most strongly to FTC, as well as the underlying mechanisms, remain unclear. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis to explore the responses of global warming potential (GWP) and the fluxes of CO2 and N2O to FTC. Our results showed that FTC treatment significantly increased GWP, N2O flux, cumulative GWP, and cumulative N2O emissions by 23.1 %, 53.2 %, 14.5 %, and 164.6 %, respectively, but did not affect CO2 flux, indicating that the enhanced GWP during the FTC period may be primarily due to the contribution of N2O flux rather than CO2 flux. The responses of GWP (+68.6 %), CO2 (21.0 %), and N2O fluxes (136.3 %) in croplands was higher than those in other ecosystems, exhibiting a strong dependence on ecosystem types. The effect size of FTC treatment on greenhouse gas emissions escalated with decreasing freezing temperature and diminished with increasing FTC frequency. Moreover, mean annual temperature (MAT) and FTC patterns were key factors influencing GWP during the FTC period. These findings provide critical insights into the variations in greenhouse gas emissions due to FTC and its influencing factors, allowing for more accurate predictions of the future impact of global climate change on GWP.

Climate change impact on water scarcity in the Hub River Basin, Pakistan

The Hub River Basin (HRB), a critical transboundary water source for Sindh and Baluchistan provinces in Pakistan, may face worsening water scarcity due to climate change and population growth. This study aims to assess the current state of water scarcity in the HRB and assesses its vulnerability to these pressures in future. To evaluate the baseline water scarcity in the HRB, a calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was established. Five General Circulation Models (GCMs) were employed to project the future climate under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) for the HRB. Sector-specific indicators were also used to assess the temporal and altitudinal sensitivity of the basin to climate change. These climate projections were incorporated in the SWAT model to simulate flows for three different periods: Early Future (EF; 2010–2039), Mid Future (MF; 2040–2069), and Far Future (FF; 2070–2099). The SWAT model results indicate significant increase in mean flows simulated by SWAT, ranging from 15.27 to 52.78 m3/s under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 compared to baseline flows at HRB. Additionally, the study examines the temporal variation in basin stress and scarcity levels using Falkenmark and Water scarcity indicators. The findings indicate a general decrease in the basin's stress and scarcity levels, potentially benefiting water users of the HRB, especially under RCP8.5. This study offers crucial insights for shaping policies and strategies to adapt to climate change and population growth, ultimately aiming to minimize their impacts on HRB's water resources. By informing water managers and promoting sustainable water management practices, this research can help prevent future conflicts over water allocation and infrastructure development linked with the HRB.

Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Geographical Distribution of Tea (Camellia sinensis L.) in Kenya with Maximum Entropy Model

Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Geographical Distribution of Tea (Camellia sinensis L.) in Kenya with Maximum Entropy Model

Predicting possible distribution of rice leaf roller (Cnaphalocrocis medinalis) under climate change scenarios using MaxEnt model in China

The relationship between climate conditions and pest life is a key determinant of their distribution. Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee, a major rice pest, exhibits outbreaks and its distribution patterns closely linked to meteorological factors. By using 244 actual distribution and occurrence data of C. medinalis along with 8 bioclimatic data, and employing the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS, combined with the latest SSPs climate scenario data, this study evaluated the risk region distribution status in the current period and predicted changes in China from 2040 to 2100. The results indicate that an overall increase in the risk area for C. medinalis, particularly under SSP245 scenario during 2040–2060. While Low-risk areas are expected to decrease, Medium and High-risk areas are projected to increase significantly, with worsening pest infestations anticipated in southern Hubei, eastern Hunan, most of Jiangxi, central Fujian, northern Guangdong, and southern Jiangsu. Regions such as central Liaoning are expected to reach the minimum survival standard for C. medinalis in future, leading to the northward shift in risk areas. Difference plots highlighted areas of increased and decreased suitability, providing actionable insights for policymakers. Regions with increased suitability align with the predicted northward shift of many agricultural pests, necessitating enhanced monitoring, specific pest control measures, and updated agricultural policies to address changing risk profiles. Additionally, the centroid analysis showed a northwest shift direction in future, primarily located at the junction of Shaoyang City and Loudi City, situated around 27–28 °N degrees north latitude and 111–113 °E. The study underscores the significant impact of climate change on the distribution of rice leaf roller, providing valuable insights for agricultural planning and management. The northward and westward expansion of risk areas necessitates adaptive strategies to mitigate potential impacts on agriculture. Enhanced monitoring, integrated pest management, and the development of pest-resistant crops are essential for addressing future challenges posed by climate change.

Bolstering community resilience through health-focused climate change adaptation: moving from talk to action in Western Canadian communities

ABSTRACT The impacts of climate change have been recognized as a global health emergency. Worsening climate stressors are resulting in injury, illness and death. As this threat to health grows, so does the need to adapt. Climate change adaptation has been noted to reduce the risk of disease transmission, chronic illness exacerbation, physical trauma, and the mental health impacts associated with climate change. Cities across Western Canada have initiated the process of implementing health-focused climate change adaptation; however, progress has been slow, leaving communities vulnerable to health threats. Exploring five case study communities in Western Canada, this research sheds light on factors that enable and constrain progress on health-focused climate change adaptation. Research objectives are addressed through analysis of 16 key actor interviews (with experts in public health, planning, local governance, and other related fields), and a scan of relevant strategic planning documents. Results indicate that political will, expertise, and awareness has resulted in the development of health-focused climate change adaptation policy/ plans. However, implementation of these plans lags in practice. This lag stems from a lack of implementation detail in climate change adaptation plans, limited understanding of the impact of climate change on health, and jurisdictional confusion.

Risk perceptions of Italian paediatricians for the impact of climate change on children’s health

BackgroundsThis study delves into the risk perceptions of Italian pediatricians concerning climate change's impact on children's health. Given children's heightened vulnerability to climate-related health risks, comprehending these perceptions is crucial. A review of pertinent literature establishes the framework, emphasizing six key factors influencing children's susceptibility to climate-related health hazards.MethodsMethodologically, the study utilized a survey tool developed collaboratively with the Italian Society of Pediatrics (SIP), garnering responses from a representative sample of Italian pediatricians.ResultsFindings indicate a high level of awareness among respondents regarding climate change and its health implications, with a majority attributing it primarily to human activity. Pediatricians recognize various current and anticipated health impacts of climate change, notably concerning illnesses linked to outdoor air quality. Despite acknowledging their role in addressing climate-related health concerns, respondents also cite barriers to engagement, including time constraints and knowledge gaps. However, they express interest in resources like professional training and policy statements to bolster their capacity for effective communication and advocacy.ConclusionsComparisons with prior studies highlight the consistency of findings across diverse contexts and underscore the significance of integrating climate and environmental health education into medical training. Overall, this study sheds light on pediatricians' perspectives in tackling the convergence of climate change and children's health, pinpointing avenues for enhancing their involvement in climate advocacy and mitigation efforts.

Framework for resilience strategies in agricultural supply chain: assessment in the era of climate change

Climate change is significantly and enduringly impacting global agricultural supply chains (ASCs), underscoring the urgent need to enhance their climate resilience. This study aims to identify key strategies for building agricultural supply chain resilience (ASCRes) in the context of climate change and their interrelationships. Through a comprehensive literature review and expert consultations, a framework of 12 strategies was developed. Using survey data from 312 Chinese ASC companies, BP-DEMATEL-ISM and PLS-SEM methods were employed to conduct causal analysis and factor level evaluation. The results indicate that “diversification of agricultural products and supply chain (SC) networks,” “Agriculture 4.0 and digital transformation,” and “taking proactive climate action” are critical strategies to enhance ASCRes in the context of climate change. These findings can provide theoretical basis for farmers, ASC companies, and governments to cope with the impact of climate change, so as to build more robust ASC systems.