Impact Risk Assessment Research Articles

Managing Municipal Austerity: Mitigation of Social Risks

The overarching objective of this article is to stimulate debate about how local authorities could and should manage their austerity measures because the speed, scale and aggregation of the UK public spending cuts risk adversely affecting already disadvantaged and vulnerable groups, exacerbating social exclusion and leading to higher costs for councils in the future. It presents the results of research conducted during 2011–2012 focusing on if and how five Scottish case study councils attempted to mitigate social risks. It found that they were using equalities impact assessment (EIA) procedures in their decision-making. However, EIAs are not fit for purpose as a risk mitigation tool and fail to take account of all groups which may also be adversely affected by service cuts. Hence, this article recommends a more innovative approach in local decision-making processes based on a social risk impact assessment (SRIA) model within a preventative approach to social policy.

Social risk screening using a socio-political ambiguity approach: the case of organic agriculture in Iran

While ecological sustainability of organic agriculture (OA) has been frequently investigated, there are limited studies on its social sustainability, especially in developing countries. Given significant benefits of OA, screening the potential social risks associated with OA seems necessary. This paper introduces a socio-political ambiguity approach based on a hybrid model of ‘risk and social impact assessment’ for screening the risks of OA. As a case study, the paper focuses on the OA development in Iran using qualitative research to elicit opinions and judgments of farmers, consumers, and policy-makers. The results of the study revealed that there are serious ambiguities and risks associated with OA. This paper demonstrates that risks (especially social risks) of OA have received too little attention and were considered as can be neglected.

Decision support system for rapid seismic risk mitigation of hospital systems. Comparison between models and countries

As it represents the final point of the whole rescue chain, hospital infrastructure is one of the most important elements of medical response to earthquakes. In order to correctly manage the emergency by providing the most efficient medical response, it is fundamental to carry out a simple, rapid and reliable risk assessment of seismic impact on hospitals. The purpose of this work was to develop a decision support system for helping the decision makers with the seismic risk mitigation of health structures.A new integrated methodology, based on a combination of two main research approaches (theory of complex systems and the rapid seismic vulnerability assessment), was implemented and applied for risk mitigation to OSMA Florence Hospital and to Santa Clara Valley Medical Center in California, US. The results of the study can serve as a support to decision makers for seismic risk mitigation of modern health structures by providing a model for estimating cost for the application of different retrofitting actions.They showed that the Leontieff model is less robust and reliable than FTA especially for high seismic intensity scenarios while simulations on risk mitigation estimated that structural interventions (Florence at M=6 and US at M=8) did not add any further appreciable improvements to the non-structural actions.

Evaluation and Analysis of the Quantitative Computing Model of the Information Security Risk Assessment

To solve the difficult quantify analysis problem in the process of information security risk assessment, on the basis of the original qualitative risk assessment method, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is put forward, in order to realize the organic combination of subjective and objective assessment of risk factors. Based on the improvement of the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy evaluation method, the two methods are organically combined. On the basis of the analysis and assessment of risk probability and impact of the incident, the risk rank of each risk factor is determined, and the information system risk control suggestions are given

Impact of Risk Assessments on Prophylactic Antiemetic Prescription and the Incidence of Postoperative Nausea and Vomiting

Clinical prediction models have been shown to have moderate sensitivity and specificity, yet their use will depend on implementation in clinical practice. The authors hypothesized that implementation of a prediction model for postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV) would lower the PONV incidence by stimulating anesthesiologists to administer more "risk-tailored" prophylaxis to patients. A single-center, cluster-randomized trial was performed in 12,032 elective surgical patients receiving anesthesia from 79 anesthesiologists. Anesthesiologists were randomized to either exposure or nonexposure to automated risk calculations for PONV (without patient-specific recommendations on prophylactic antiemetics). Anesthesiologists who treated less than 50 enrolled patients were excluded during the analysis to avoid too small clusters, yielding 11,613 patients and 57 anesthesiologists (intervention group: 5,471 and 31; care-as-usual group: 6,142 and 26). The 24-h incidence of PONV (primary outcome) and the number of prophylactic antiemetics administered per patient were studied for risk-dependent differences between allocation groups. There were no differences in PONV incidence between allocation groups (crude incidence intervention group 41%, care-as-usual group 43%; odds ratio, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.87-1.1; risk-dependent odds ratio, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.80-1.1). Nevertheless, intervention-group anesthesiologists administered more prophylactic antiemetics (rate ratio, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.6-2.4) and more risk-tailored than care-as-usual-group anesthesiologists (risk-dependent rate ratio, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.3-2.0). Implementation of a PONV prediction model did not reduce the PONV incidence despite increased antiemetic prescription in high-risk patients by anesthesiologists. Before implementing prediction models into clinical practice, implementation studies that include patient outcomes as an endpoint are needed.

Sorption effects interfering with the analysis of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) in aqueous samples

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) are severe environmental pollutants that are analyzed frequently. The risk assessment of PAH impact to groundwater can be performed using leaching tests. Therby a liquid-solid separation step including centrifugation may be required, which in turn might lead to loss of analytes due to sorption on the equipment. Thus we determined the PAH recoveries from various container materials (polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), polytetraflourethylene (PTFE), stainless steel (ES), and perflouroalkoxy (PFA)) and compared them to selected PAH properties. We found the best recoveries for PFA (68%) and PTFE (65%) containers. We found good negative correlations (-0.93 and better) between PAH recovery and log partition coefficient organic carbon-water (logKOC) for PFA, PTFE, and ES containers.

The impact of risk assessment on the implementation of venous thromboembolism prophylaxis in foot and ankle surgery.

The purpose of this prospective study was to determine whether the more frequently quoted procedure and patient specific risk factors have any impact in the implementation of venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis following foot and ankle surgery. Two hundred and sixteen patients were included in the study. A variety of operative procedures was carried out with the common denominator being a below knee cast for at least 4 weeks and nonweightbearing for an average of 6 weeks in 130 patients. The remainder of the patients (88) had hallux surgery not requiring a cast and were allowed to weightbear. No patient received any form of thromboprophylaxis postoperatively. All patients were subjected to compression ultrasonography for deep vein thrombosis (DVT) between 2 and 6 weeks postoperatively. There was a 5.09% incidence of VTE (0.9% pulmonary embolism) overall. As no VTE (neither DVT nor pulmonary embolus) developed in the hallux subgroup, i.e. patients not requiring immobilization and were allowed to weightbear, the incidence of VTE in the cast/nonweightbearing group was 8.46%. The results are descriptive and only statistically analyzed where possible, as the sample size of the VTE group was small. There was no significant difference in number of risk factors and no association between gender in the VTE and non VTE groups. 90.9% of patients in the VTE group had a total risk factor score of 5 or more and 73.7% of patients in the non VTE group had a total risk factor score of 5 or more. The average timing to the diagnosis of VTE in this current study was 33.1 days. In view of the unacceptable incidence of VTE and the average total risk factor score of 5 or more (for which thromboprophylaxis is recommended) in the majority of the patients, the authors feel that the routine use of thromboprophylaxis in foot and ankle surgery requiring nonweightbearing in combination with short leg cast immobilization, is warranted. This prophylaxis should continue until the patient regains adequate mobility either by weightbearing (in or out of the cast) or removal of cast immobilization (weightbearing or nonweightbearing), usually between 28 and 42 days.

Modeling stomatal conductance and ozone uptake of Fagus crenata grown under different nitrogen loads

A multiplicative stomatal conductance model was constructed to estimate stomatal O3 uptake of Fagus crenata exposed to O3 under different N loads to the soil. Our stomatal conductance model included environmental functions such as the stomatal responses of F. crenata to diurnal changes, chronic O3 stress (AOT0), acute O3 stress (O3 concentration), and nitrogen load to soil. The model could explain 62% of the variability in stomatal conductance. We suggest therefore that stomatal closure induced by O3 and N load-induced soil acidification must be taken into account in developing a stomatal conductance model for estimating stomatal O3 uptake for future risk assessment of O3 impact on Japanese forest tree species such as F. crenata.

Hazard-based regulation in Europe: status of impact in risk assessment

Hazard-based regulation in Europe: status of impact in risk assessment

Work related asthma. A causal analysis controlling the healthy worker effect

ObjectivesThe healthy worker effect usually leads to underestimation of the association between occupational exposure and asthma. The role of irritants in work-related asthma is disputed. We estimated the effect of...

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management.

What direction for human rights impact assessments?

This article contributes to the development of a standard of good practice for Human Rights Impact Assessment (HRIA). It charts the design, delivery and refinement of a methodology for identifying and assessing the human rights impacts of an existing mining operation. The methodology was designed to fulfil the requirements of an internal corporate standard, as well as the due diligence requirements of the United Nations Guiding Principles for Business and Human Rights. The HRIA model emphasizes the identification of human rights impacts and the assessment of the effectiveness of responses to such impacts. Four elements are central: (1) building a shared understanding of the historical and current human rights context of the operation; (2) identifying the current and potential areas of human rights impacts and prioritizing them; (3) reviewing the management systems in place to address human rights impacts; and (4) facilitating significant human rights capacity building for operational personnel responsible for managing human rights-related areas. We also consider the question: where is the most natural home for this emerging field of practice? The fields of social impact assessment, corporate accountability and risk assessment are considered. The authors conclude with key questions that require answers before the full potential of HRIA's role in the business and human rights agenda can be realized.

RISK ASSESSMENT BASED ON MATHEMATICAL MORPHOLOGY OF LANDSCAPE MODELS (CASE STUDY OF THERMOKARST PLAINS)

The paper presents a new approach for risk assessment of impact of thermokarst processes on engineering structures; it is based on the methods of mathematical morphology of landscape. The paper presents the results of the investigation of irregular (non-circular shape) thermokarst lakes. Remote sensing images of reference plots with thermokarst lakes were digitized; then, theoretical assumptions were applied and the simulation results were compared with empirical data to prove convergence. The analysis of the obtained results showed general agreement of empirical and theoretical data.

Dermal irritation of petrolatum in rabbits but not in mice, rats or minipigs

Petrolatum is widely used in cosmetics, topical pharmaceuticals and also as a vehicle in dermal toxicity studies. New Zealand white rabbits treated with white petrolatum (vehicle control) in a 2-week dermal irritation study exhibited moderate to severe erythema starting on Day 7 that subsided towards the end of the study. Histological examination of abraded and non-abraded petrolatum-treated skin obtained at termination (Day 15) revealed mild acanthosis, hyperkeratosis, dermal edema with mixed inflammatory cells in the dermis. Macroscopic and microscopic features noted in rabbits were consistent with dermal irritation to petrolatum. Wistar-Han rats, CD1 mice, C57/Bl/6J mice and Göttingen minipigs treated topically with white petrolatum did not exhibit clinical or histologic evidence of dermal irritation. Therapeutic agents developed for topical application are generally tested in rabbits during some point in development. Interpretation of skin irritation data from a single species can impact risk assessment for humans and on product labeling.

Expression of Flavonoid 3′,5′-Hydroxylase and Acetolactate Synthase Genes in Transgenic Carnation: Assessing the Safety of a Nonfood Plant

For 16 years, genetically modified flowers of carnation ( Dianthus caryophyllus ) have been sold to the floristry industry. The transgenic carnation carries a herbicide tolerance gene (a mutant gene encoding acetolactate synthase (ALS)) and has been modified to produce delphinidin-based anthocyanins in flowers, which conventionally bred carnation cannot produce. The modified flower color has been achieved by introduction of a gene encoding flavonoid 3',5'-hydroxylase (F3'5'H). Transgenic carnation flowers are produced in South America and are primarily distributed to North America, Europe, and Japan. Although a nonfood crop, the release of the genetically modified carnation varieties required an environmental risk impact assessment and an assessment of the potential for any increased risk of harm to human or animal health compared to conventionally bred carnation. The results of the health safety assessment and the experimental studies that accompanied them are described in this review. The conclusion from the assessments has been that the release of genetically modified carnation varieties which express F3'5'H and ALS genes and which accumulate delphinidin-based anthocyanins do not pose an increased risk of harm to human or animal health.

Guinean environmental impact potential risks assessment of oil spills simulation

This work analyses the specific potential spill scenarios for future oil exploitation and transportation activity in Guinean waters. The analysis was carried out by using the DEEPBLOW and (OSCAR) 3-dimensional model system from SINTEF. A spill using 100t as a “worst case” reference scenario of marine crude oil demonstrates the rapidity with which such a spill will dissipate naturally. Guinean southwest (SW) and north–northwest (NNW) winds directions were selected. A comprehensive environmental impact assessment has been carried out, including the assessment of the impact from oil spills. The modeling identified environmentally sensitive areas which could potentially be influenced by an oil spill. Also, the potential of surface contaminant risk and maximum concentration were modeled; the total area of the oil spill and area of thick oil concentration were predicted; spill mass balance area and sediment risks and maximum concentration scenarios are shown. The simulation results demonstrate the usefulness of the models as tools for guidance of environmental impact risk assessment of spilled oil during an actual blowout event; and its application will help to set up an eventual spill planning response strategies and protect the country's marine environment against oil spill accidents and manage oil exploitation and transport.

Soundscape-focusing on resources

In contrast to many other environmental problems, noise pollution continues to grow, and it is accompanied by an increasing number of complaints from people exposed to the noise. The growth in noise pollution involves direct, as well as cumulative, adverse health effects. It also adversely effects future generations, and has socio-cultural, aesthetic, and economic effects. Therefore, the concept of noise annoyance needed to be broaden to an integrated environmental, psychosocial, and socioeconomic assessment of the community situation to reach a more realistic basis for environmental impact and health risk assessments. Soundscape research represents a timely paradigm shift in that it combines physical, social, and psychological approaches and considers environmental sounds as a “resource” rather than a “waste” to satisfy human needs and wants. Moreover, balancing between the expertise from people living in respective areas and acoustic measurements, architectural planning will lead to a new understanding of a concept of an environment under “noise control” as soundscape suggests exploring noise in its complexity, its ambivalence, and its approach toward sound and quality of life.

The Merapi 2010 eruption: An interdisciplinary impact assessment methodology for studying pyroclastic density current dynamics

The large explosive eruption of Merapi volcano, Indonesia, in 2010 presented a key, and rare, opportunity to study the impacts of a major explosive eruption in a densely populated area. Pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) produced throughout the 2010 eruption were unusually destructive, causing near complete devastation across a 22km2 swath of the densely populated southern flanks and casualties to the end of their runout at 15.5km from the volcano. The majority (>120) of the more than 200 fatalities occurred more than 12km from the volcano, where many people were caught in PDCs as they were evacuating. The 2010 eruption (VEI 4) exhibited a range of PDC behaviour in a complex multi-stage event that marked a change in eruption behaviour at Merapi, being the first eruption of this magnitude and style since 1872. This shift in style may mark a change in regime, and so understanding the potential impact of such large explosive eruptions is essential for future risk-assessment at Merapi. We describe a new impact assessment methodology that allowed us to collect important empirical geological, damage and casualty information and reconstruct impact dynamics associated with the PDCs. In contrast to previous PDC impact studies, we combined remote, field, laboratory and GIS assessments and were able to enter the affected areas safely and before their disturbance by rains or human activity. By integrating the results of our geological, damage and medical studies, we could reconstruct the spatial and temporal dynamics of the PDCs and their main hazard characteristics. Our interdisciplinary methods and preliminary findings are discussed here. In the areas damaged by PDCs, we used empirical damage data and calculations of material and structural resistance to lateral force to estimate approximate dynamic pressures. Dynamic pressures associated with the 5 November paroxysm exceeded 15kPa more than 6km from source and rapidly attenuated over a distance of less than 1km at the end of the PDC runouts. Analysis of thermal indicators, such as deformed plastic, and correlation with information on burns injuries and fires provided estimates of ambient temperatures associated with the PDCs. Even at the relatively low temperatures estimated for the PDCs (200–300°C) they were lethal to people inside as well as outside buildings, in part because of the building design that enabled the PDCs to rapidly infiltrate inside. Such detailed quantitative data can be used to support numerical PDC and impact modelling and risk assessment at dome-forming volcanoes, providing an improved understanding of the complexity of PDCs and their associated impacts on exposed populations.

Characterization and assessment of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions from typical industries

VOCs play an increasingly important role in affecting air quality and threatening human health in China in recent years, where industry activities show a significant contribution to VOCs emission. In this article we report our long term study of industrial VOCs emissions of six major industries (vehicle manufacturing, printing, equipment coating, electronic manufacturing, furniture manufacturing and bio-pharming) on the aspects of emission characteristics, environmental impact and health risk assessment, and control challenge analysis with the purpose to obtain in-depth understanding of industry VOCs emissions and offer some original basements for national control and management of industry VOCs emissions. This study shows that all these industries give middle or low emission with total VOCs concentration less than 1000 mg/m3 at each exhaust pipe. Benzenes, esters, alcohols, ketones, alkanes, chloroalkanes and alkenes were detected as the major emission components and the most frequently monitored VOCs were benzenes, which varied obviously with different processes and industries. The environmental impact assessments indicate that vehicle manufacturing and benzenes should be prior controlled with the purpose to reduce air pollution. While, health risk assessments suggest that furniture manufacturing and chloroalkanes should be firstly controlled. Control analysis indicates that developing technologies with low cost and high efficiency and establishing and completing specific industry emission standards/regulations are the two key issues in VOCs emission management at present stage.

이산화탄소의 해양지중저장과 환경 안전성 평가 방안

이산화탄소 포집 및 저장기술(CCS)은 기후변화에 대응하는 효과적인 온실가스 저감기술로서 평가받고 있다. 국내에서는 이산화탄소 포집 및 해양지중저장사업이 2020년 실증화를 목표로 빠르게 진행되고 있다. 하지만 CCS 기술을 실제 환경에 적용하는 과정에서는 수송, 저장과정에서의 CO₂ 누출 문제나 영구적인 격리에 대한 불확실성 등의 환경 안전성 관리를 위한 제도적 기반은 마련되어있지 않은 실정이다. 이로 인하여 CCS 사업시행 과정에서 주민이나 이해당사자의 사업 거부 및 이로 인한 사업의 지연 등의 문제가 발생할 수 있다. 원활한 사업 진행에 필요한 사회적 수용성을 강화하기 위해서는 환경 안전성에 대한 국가 차원의 관리 체계 마련이 매우 중요하다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 환경 안전성 관리 체계의 가장 기본적인 제도라 할 수 있는 환경영향평가와 환경위해성평가 등의 국내외 관련 제도 및 규정 등을 살펴보고, 선진국에서 수행되고 있는 CCS 사업에 대한 환경영향평가기술과 사례를 조사하여, 국내의 제도개선 방향과 기술개발 및 관리방안에 대해 제안하고자 하였다.