Abstract
The paper presents a new approach for risk assessment of impact of thermokarst processes on engineering structures; it is based on the methods of mathematical morphology of landscape. The paper presents the results of the investigation of irregular (non-circular shape) thermokarst lakes. Remote sensing images of reference plots with thermokarst lakes were digitized; then, theoretical assumptions were applied and the simulation results were compared with empirical data to prove convergence. The analysis of the obtained results showed general agreement of empirical and theoretical data.
Highlights
One of the urgent modern tasks in assessment of the risk associated with development of exogenous geological processes
The time required to obtain such data is comparable with the time of operation of an engineering structure, risk assessment is needed at the design stage of construction
Let us compute the probability of damage of a linear structure of a given length (L)
Summary
One of the urgent modern tasks in assessment of the risk associated with development of exogenous geological processes. The most common risk assessment parameters are: The probability of some degree of damage to engineering structures from exogenous process. The probability distribution of damage of an engineering structure by a hazardous exogenous process. The difficulty is associated with the fact that processes, which allow assessing the probability and the size of damage are poorly studied. The time required to obtain such data is comparable with the time of operation of an engineering structure, risk assessment is needed at the design stage of construction.
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