Impact Of Population Aging Research Articles

The impact of population aging on economic growth: a case study on China

<abstract> <p>The impact of population aging on economic growth is a very important issue in the process of population structure change. This paper first proposes research hypotheses based on a systematic literature review and theoretical analysis of the negative and positive effects of population aging on economic growth. Then, based on the data of 30 provinces in the Chinese Mainland from 2000 to 2019, this paper empirically tests the impact of population aging on economic growth and its impact mechanism using a static panel data model, a dynamic panel data model and a mediating effect model. Our empirical analysis leads to the following conclusions. First, population aging has a significant inhibitory effect on economic growth. Second, the industrial structure upgrading plays a mediating role in the process of population aging affecting economic growth; that is, population aging inhibits economic growth by affecting the overall upgrading of the industrial structure as well as the industrial rationalization and optimization. Last, some policy implications are proposed based on the research conclusions.</p> </abstract>

S-20-4: HYPERTENSION AND CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE IN ASIA

Being the most populous continent in the world, consisting of around 60% of the global population, Asia shoulders a big brunt of the hypertension and cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden in the world. Just as it is in the rest of world, hypertension remains a major modifiable risk factor in Asia for stroke, myocardial infarction, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and peripheral arterial disease; and it is a dominant risk factor implicated for cardiovascular deaths causing premature death in the region. There is generally a stronger association between elevated blood pressure (BP) and stroke than with coronary artery disease (CAD), although CAD is reported as the most dominant cause of CVD deaths in Central, Western, and Southern Asia, while stroke deaths is more common than CAD deaths in Eastern and Southeastern Asia. Of the estimated 1.13 billion people worldwide with elevated BP, around 66% live in low and middle income countries, which consist the majority of countries in Asia. In Southeast Asia (SEA), the prevalence of hypertension in the adult population is nearing 35%, and to this has been attributed the close to 1.5 million deaths in the region annually. Hypertension awareness, treatment and control remain a challenge in Asia. Awareness level is less than 50% in most countries in Asia, though it is higher (56 70%) in the higher income countries in the region. Treatment rates are generally 25% to 30% of the hypertensive population, but control rates to BP levels below 140/90 mmHg, are still dismally low. The comparatively high dietary salt intake in the region, aggravating the salt sensitive phenotype characterizing Asian hypertension is implicated as a significant risk factor leading to poor hypertension control and a relatively increased rates of strokes in the region. Salt intake ranges from 10to17 grams a day, which is 2to3 times higher compared to the 5 grams (approximately 2 grams of sodium) recommended daily salt consumption by the World Health Organization. Because of the socioeconomic, educational and cultural heterogeneity of the countries comprising Asia, the region appears to be in different transition stages of the CVD epidemic. This highlights the challenge in mapping out a one size fits all strategy in curbing hypertension and CVD in Asia. Individualized prevention and treatment strategies factoring the differing capacities for management, prevalence of unhealthy diet especially increased salt intake, smoking, obesity, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and diabetes, as well as the impact of population aging must be considered.

A study on impact of ageing population on Singapore healthcare systems using machine learning algorithms

A study on impact of ageing population on Singapore healthcare systems using machine learning algorithms

The impact of aging population on housing prices in Shaanxi Province

Taking the data from 1994 to 2020 in Shaanxi Province as a research sample,study the relationship between aging population and housing prices by multiple regression model modeling. It is found that per capita GDP has a certain explanatory effect on the rise of housing prices in Shaanxi Province, and the increase in real estate investment completed this year also promotes the rise of housing prices, and the impact of CPI on housing prices is not significant. Aging population has a restraining effect on house price increases, but with the increase of aging, population aging gradually shows a positive effect on housing prices, and intergenerational transfer can be explained. Therefore, the government should promote the development of the real estate industry in Shaanxi Province by implementing "rent-purchase equal rights", relaxing population policies, and collecting real estate taxes.

The Impact of Population Aging on Financial Services and Economic Development

The Impact of Population Aging on Financial Services and Economic Development

A study on impact of ageing population on Singapore healthcare systems using machine learning algorithms

A study on impact of ageing population on Singapore healthcare systems using machine learning algorithms

Impact of population ageing on carbon emissions: A case of China's urban households

Ageing can have a considerable ripple effect on carbon emission by affecting production and consumption of economic system. Based on an input-output structural decomposition analysis, this study analyses the impact of ageing on urban residents’ carbon emissions in China from 2002 to 2007 and 2007 to 2012, and explores the regional heterogeneity and temporal uncertainty of the impact. At the national level, older adults slowed the growth of direct carbon emissions in both periods, because their per capita energy consumption fell more in the first period, then switched from coal to gas and electricity consumption. They contributed less to the growth of indirect carbon emissions in both periods due to the minimum increase in their per capita consumption among all age groups. Moreover, the impact of ageing on carbon emissions had clear regional heterogeneity. This study is beneficial to provide suggestions regarding carbon emission reduction and adapting to demographic changes.Ageing; Household consumption; Carbon emissions; Input-output; Structural decomposition analysis.

How Population Aging Affects Industrial Structure Upgrading: Evidence from China

The question of how to proactively respond to population aging has become a major global issue. As a country with the largest elderly population in the world, China suffers a stronger shock from population aging, which makes it more urgent to transform its industrial and economic development model. Concretely, in the context of the new macroeconomic environment that has undergone profound changes, the shock of population aging makes the traditional industrial structure upgrading model (driven by large-scale factor inputs, imitation innovation and low-cost technological progress, and strong external demand) more unsustainable, and China has an urgent need to transform it to a more sustainable one. Only with an in-depth analysis of the influence mechanism of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure can we better promote industrial structure upgrading under the impact of population aging. Therefore, six MSVAR models were constructed from each environmental perspective based on data from 1987 to 2021. The probabilities of regime transition figures show that the influencing mechanisms have a clear two-regime feature from any view; specifically, the omnidirectional environmental transition occurs in 2019. A further impulse-response analysis shows that, comparatively speaking, under the new environment regime the acceleration of population aging (1) aggravates the labor shortage, thus narrowing the industrial structure upgrading ranges; (2) has a negative, rather than positive, impact on the capital stock, but leads to a cumulative increase in industrial structure upgrading; (3) forces weaker technological progress, but further leads to a stronger impact on the industrial structure upgrading; (4) forces greater consumption upgrading, which further weakens industrial structure upgrading; (5) narrows rather than expands the upgrading of investment and industrial structures; and (6) narrows the upgrading of export and industrial structures. Therefore, we should collaboratively promote industrial structure upgrading from the supply side relying heavily on independent innovation and talent, and the demand side relying heavily on the upgrading of domestic consumption and exports.

Impact Analysis of Population Aging on Public Education Financial Expenditure in China

The problem of China’s aging population is becoming increasingly serious, which brings a variety of social and economic issues. This paper constructed the theoretical framework and analyzed the impact mechanism of the population aging on local public education financial expenditure, and selected provincial panel data from 2010 to 2020 for empirical testing. It is found that population aging has a significant negative impact on local public education financial expenditure, and that with every 1% increase in old-age dependency ratio, local public education financial expenditure will decrease by 0.304%. The increase of urbanization rate has a significant positive impact on local public education financial expenditure, and with every 1% increase in urbanization rate, the local public education financial expenditure will increase by 0.215%. The test of impact mechanism shows that local government fiscal revenue and public expenditure for the elderly has the mediating effect in the impact of population aging on local public education financial expenditure, and the mediating effect of public expenditure for the elderly is stronger. The conclusions of the research can help provide policy implications for solving the declining level of local government public education financial expenditure in the context of an ageing population, and provide theoretical support to improve the rational allocation of fiscal public expenditure.

Research on the Impact of Population Aging on High-quality Economic Development in China

This paper first analyzes the current situation and characteristics of China's population aging, and analyzes the impact mechanism of population aging on China's high-quality economic development from the five levels of innovation, coordination, green, openness and sharing. Secondly, the entropy weight method is used to calculate the high-quality development level of China's economy. Thirdly, this paper uses Eviews software to carry out the experimental results. The results show that the population aging has a certain role in promoting the high-quality economic development. Finally, based on the results of empirical analysis, reasonable policy suggestions are put forward.

The Impact of Population Aging and Migration on the Labor Market in Belarus

The purpose of the study is to assess the demographic situation and migration processes that affect the functioning and transformation of the labor market in conditions of depopulation, which would allow to ensure demographic security and justify measures to improve the population employment policy. The object of the study is the patterns of transformation of the labor market in the Republic of Belarus. The subject of the study is the demographic aging of the population as the existing basis for the formation of the labor force. The hypothesis of the study is that the demographic aging of the population and the reproduction of labor resources constitute the main potential of the labor force, which forms the labor market. It is shown that the effective development of the economy in the context of digitalization should be accompanied by an increase in the quality of human potential, and the impossibility of completely replacing pensioners with persons of pre-working age can be compensated by the influx of migrants with a higher level of education and relevant qualifications. The study presents groupings of the population by age groups, reflects the dynamics of retirement, taking into account the pension reforms carried out in the country, and the possibility of actively using pensioners as a resource in the labor market. The positive net migration offsets the negative natural decline in the population of Belarus, but does not solve the problem of labor market efficiency. The article outlines the socio-economic and demographic aspects that provide justification for measures to ensure demographic security and improve state policy in the field of employment. The research is based upon economic-statistical, demographic and analytical research methods. The result and, accordingly, the scientific contribution of the study is the theoretical substantiation of the position that the situation in a country where there is no general population growth cannot be called demographically prosperous, since from an economic standpoint there will be a shortage of labor force to form effective employment in the labor market. The application of the research results would make it possible to conduct a competent policy in the labor market, taking into account the age composition of the population; carry out programs for the development of active and passive employment policies and forecasting the state of the labor market at the regional and national levels taking into account the age composition of the population; implement measures within the framework of the State Program “Labor Market and Employment Promotion” in the Republic of Belarus; to substantiate the mechanism for implementing a migration policy that ensures the quantitative and qualitative composition of the labor force in the labor market.

The Impact of Population Aging on FDI Inflow in China—An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

With the increasingly serious situation of population aging in China, the impact of population aging cannot be ignored. This study analyzes the effect of population aging on the attraction of FDI inflows in China through the construction of an empirical model. The results show that there is a significant “inverted-U” relationship between population aging and FDI inflows, and aging negatively affects foreign investment inflows after crossing the aging inflection point. Based on the findings, this study proposes policy recommendations based on the quantity and quality of the labor force, such as improving the policy of gradual delayed retirement, improving the level of human capital, and promoting the regional mobility of the labor force, to provide feasible research ideas to enhance the attractiveness of FDI in regions with different levels of aging.

The nonlinear effects of ageing on national savings rate – An Empirical Study based on threshold model

Abstract Researching the past empirical studies, we find that the empirical results of using data from the same or similar stages of economic development tend to be very close; however, there will be some discrepancies when comparing the empirical results of data samples at different stages of development. In order to explain this phenomenon, a theoretical analysis is made on the regional differences in the impact of population ageing on national saving. By analysing the areas considered in this paper as being in different stages of economic development, the combined effects of population ageing on the national saving rate are different. In order to verify the above conclusions, the thresholds and threshold effects are estimated and tested through the threshold model. The results show that the impact of population ageing on the savings rate will be different due to different levels of economic development. When per capita income is below the threshold of 9001.69, population ageing has a greater negative impact on the national savings rate. When per capita income is above the threshold of 9001.69, the negative impact of population ageing on the national saving rate is smaller.

Can dementia become the most prevalent disease at the time of death in Germany? Projections up to the year 2060 for the five most important diseases at the time of death

Data on the burden of disease in the last years of life are an important basis for health policy decisions and the allocation of health care resources. Since dementia is one of the most expensive diseases, we ask the question whether dementia will ever be the most common disease at the time of death in older people? While international cause-of-death statistics report the underlying cause of death, dementia patients generally die from complications or sequelae. Instead of using causes of death, we identified the five most prevalent disease categories at age 70 and older at the time of death using German health claims data from 2004 to 2007 and 2014–2017, and combined their prevalence rates with the estimated number of deaths at age 70 and older up to the year 2060. We developed two scenarios, first, to represent the impact of population aging and increasing life expectancy. Second, to additionally examine the impact of morbidity trends among those who died. We found that dementia was already the most prevalent disease at the time of death among German women aged 70 years and older in 2014–2017, while it was still in fifth place among German men. Population aging and increasing life expectancy will result in dementia ranking first among women and second among men if the morbidity profile at the time of death remains constant. Extrapolating the observed time trends into the projections, cancer will be the most prevalent disease at the time of death for both sexes. Dementia will be second for women, and third for men after IHD. In addition to projections of causes of death, we also need projections of diseases at the time of death to better prepare for the needs of people in their final stages of life.

The Impact of Population Aging on Environmental Quality: Does Social Security Matter?

The Impact of Population Aging on Environmental Quality: Does Social Security Matter?

Study on population aging, birth policy and long-term care insurance participation

With the deepening of the aging of Chinese society, the participation rate of long-term care insurance for the elderly is rising rapidly. However, at the same time, the implementation of China’s multi-child policy has increased the burden of families. In order to realize the balance between providing for the elderly and raising multiple children, how would different families make their decisions on purchasing long-term care insurance? Based on the data of CHARLS 2018, this paper applied Logistic regression method to empirically test the impact of population aging and the number of children on the participation of families in long-term care insurance for the elderly. The results showed that there was a significant positive correlation between the age of the elderly in the family and long-term care insurance participation. With the increase of age of the elderly, families were found to be more likely to buy long-term care insurance, and this effect remained consistent in urban and rural areas. However, the number of children inhibited the purchase of long-term care insurance. The more children a family had, the more likely it would be to reduce the purchase of long-term care insurance for the elderly. This relationship was significant in urban areas, but not in rural areas. Therefore, when China implements the multi-child policy, it is necessary to pay attention to the crowding-out effect of elderly care security.

The Role of Internet Development in China’s Grain Production: Specific Path and Dialectical Perspective

With the development of the internet in China, information asymmetry in traditional agriculture production has been alleviated, and the information on modern agricultural technologies and production factor mobility has been widely disseminated, significantly impacting the country’s grain productivity and output. The pertinence and effectiveness of food security system arrangement can be ensured by revealing the influence of the internet on grain production. Based on the panel data of 30 provincial administrative regions in China from 1997 to 2018, a mediation model and a moderation model were used to evaluate the effect of internet development on grain output and constraints. The results showed that grain output could be promoted as internet penetration directly increases, and can also be boosted by enhancing technology usage and promoting operation scale expansion through the internet. However, the positive effect of this cycle could be inhibited by rural population aging, as there are many barriers faced by the elderly using information and communication technology (ICT). Strengthening agricultural technology utilization and promoting large-scale operation can encourage the development of rural internet, consequently improving the national food security guarantee capacity. It is equally important to simplify internet usage to alleviate the adverse impact of population aging on grain output. This study contributes to three sections of literature on (i) the factors influencing grain output, (ii) the mediating effects of the information transmission function of the internet, (iii) and the potential impact of aging in the information era. Exploring agricultural growth from an innovative perspective of the internet can provide a reference for ensuring food security and agricultural informatization.

Population aging and corporate innovation: evidence from China

ABSTRACT Using a sample of Chinese listed firms from 2007 to 2017, this study documents that corporate innovation is negatively associated with population aging, indicating that the aging workforce impedes corporate innovation. We further find evidence suggesting that education and stock-based incentive plans are two ways to alleviate the negative impact of population aging on corporate innovation. Our study complements existing research investigating the determinants of corporate innovation and extends the literature examining the economic consequences of population aging. This study also sheds light on the critical role of non-executive employees on corporate innovation.

Revisiting the Existence of EKC Hypothesis under Different Degrees of Population Aging: Empirical Analysis of Panel Data from 140 Countries.

Population aging and environmental sustainability have become two hot topics in the world today. To clarify whether the Environmental Kuninets Curve (EKC) hypothesis between the economy and the environment is still valid in the context of population aging is the key to reveal the complexity of social-ecological systems in aging societies. So far, the impact of population aging on the environment has not been clear. To this end, an empirical analysis on the threshold panel model was conducted using panel data of 140 countries from 2000 to 2015. The global findings suggest that economic growth was the main reason for the increase in the ecological footprint at the beginning of aging. However, deepening aging weakened this association between economic and ecological footprints. For high-income countries, with the deepening of aging, the economic and ecological footprints were firstly negatively correlated, then positively correlated, and finally negatively correlated. In other words, the EKC hypothesis remained valid in high-income countries as aging deepened. In contrast, for the low- and middle-income group, the economic-environmental association was not affected by the degree of aging. This result sheds light on the variability of different income country groups in coping with the environmental impacts of aging. For the high-income group, policy makers should pay attention to the aging threshold in socio-ecological management. Only in this way can the development of aging and the ecological environment be reconciled to the greatest extent.

Secular incidence trends and effect of population aging on mortality due to type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus in China from 1990 to 2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

IntroductionDiabetes and population aging have become public health issues of global concern. The secular incidence trends and the impact of population aging on mortality due to type 1 diabetes mellitus...