Impact Of Land Use Cover Changes Research Articles

Spatio-temporal variations of habitat quality in the Greater Bay Area around Hangzhou Bay, based on LUCC and simulation

Context Habitat quality (HQ) is vital for achieving sustainable regional development. Understanding the spatial patterns and temporal evolution of HQ in the context of land use–cover change (LUCC) is crucial for promoting ecological civilisation and high-quality growth, especially for regions with rapid economic development. Aims In order to analyse the impact of LUCC on habitat quality in the coastal areas with frequent human activities. Methods This study focused on the Greater Bay Area around Hangzhou Bay and analysed the HQ on the basis of LUCC data during 2010–2020 by using the InVEST model and spatial autocorrelation analysis. Additionally, land-use data for multiple scenarios in 2030 were predicted using the PLUS model, and the variations in land use and HQ in the study region during 2020–2030 were assessed. Key results During 2010–2020, the construction land in the region expanded by 1932.79 km2, primarily at the expense of cropland and water areas. The mean HQ values were 0.6287, 0.6181 and 0.6037 for 2010, 2015 and 2020 respectively, indicating a continuous decline. Spatially, HQ exhibited strong clustering during this period. However, there was a clear trend of fragmentation and reduction in ‘high–high’ cluster areas along the coast, mostly owing to the transformation of water areas and wetlands into construction land and cropland. In the projected scenarios (natural development, ND; economic development, ED; crop protection, CP; and ecological protection, EP) for 2030, the mean HQ values are estimated to be 0.5881, 0.5837, 0.5915 and 0.5965 respectively. Compared with 2020, there will be a certain decrease in HQ, with the EP scenario showing the lowest decrease of 0.0052. Conclusions The HQ changes were closely linked to LUCC, the construction-land expansion was the main cause of HQ destruction in the Greater Bay Area around Hangzhou Bay. To alleviate the trend of declining HQ, it is essential to select appropriate development scenarios for each city in the region and coordinate the development of the cities. Implications These findings provide valuable insights for promoting sustainable economic growth in the Greater Bay Area around Hangzhou Bay.

Hydrological responses to historical and predicted land use/land cover changes in the Welmel watershed, Genale Dawa Basin, Ethiopia: Implications for water resource management

Study regionWelmel watershed, Genale-Dawa Basin, Ethiopia. Study focusThis study aimed to analyze the hydrological impacts of land use/land cover (LULC) changes in the Welmel watershed for 1990–2020 and to predict the LULC change impact on the hydrological status in the year 2050. The hybrid land use classification technique for classifying Landsat images; Cellular-Automata Markov (CA-Markov) for prediction of the 2035 and 2050 LULC; and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for hydrological modeling were employed in the analyses. New hydrological insights for the regionThe findings revealed that from 1990 to 2020, significant alterations in the hydrological regime occurred due to historical LULC changes in the Welmel watershed, which are expected to continue in the 2035 and 2050 periods. Forest cover loss and expansion of agricultural areas, which occurred from 1990 to 2020, have resulted in increased annual flow (6.18%), wet seasonal flow (10.21%), and surface runoff (25.32%), and reduced dry seasonal flow (6.34%), groundwater flow (17.17%, and evapotranspiration (0.36%). The 2035 and 2050 LULC indicate further increased annual flow, wet seasonal flow, and surface runoff, and reduced dry seasonal flow, groundwater flow, and evapotranspiration. The study also stated the hydrological impacts of the LULC changes at the sub-watershed scales. More noticeable changes in hydrological components have been observed at the sub-watershed scale, mainly associated with the uneven spatial distribution of LULC changes. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, water resource managers, and local communities in formulating strategies to enhance water resource management practices in the Welmel watershed and similar regions. It could also be for researchers and Academia who can be benefited and it can be used to supplement global goals like Sustainable Development Goal 6 (SDG 6): ensure the availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all.

Assessing the Impacts of Future Climate and Land-Use Changes on Streamflow under Multiple Scenarios: A Case Study of the Upper Reaches of the Tarim River in Northwest China

Climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC) are two major factors that alter hydrological processes. The upper reaches of the Tarim River, situated in the northwest region of China, experience a dry and less rainy climate and are significantly influenced by human activities. This study comprehensively assessed the impacts of individual and combined climate changes and LUCCs on streamflow. Three general circulation models (GCMs) were utilized to predict future climate changes under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP119, SSP245, and SSP585). Cellular Automata–Markov (CA–Markov) was employed to predict future LUCC under three scenarios (i.e., ecological protection, historical trend, and farmland development). Streamflow for the period 2021–2050 was simulated using the calibrated MIKE SHE model with multiple scenarios. The results showed that from 2021 to 2050, increments in both average annual precipitation and average annual temperature under the three SSPs were predicted to lead to an increased streamflow. In comparison to the conditions observed in 2000, under three LUCC scenarios for 2030, the grassland area decreased by 1.04% to 1.21%, while the farmland area increased by 1.97% to 2.26%, resulting in reduced streamflow. The related changes analysis indicated that the variation in streamflow during winter is most significant, followed by spring. The study predicted that climate change would increase streamflow, while LUCC would decrease it. Due to the greater impact of LUCC, considering the combined effect of both factors, runoff would decrease. The contribution analysis indicated that climate change contributed between −7.16% and −18.66%, while LUCC contributed between 107.16% and 118.66%.

Assessing the spatio-temporal impact of landuse landcover change on water yield dynamics of rapidly urbanizing Kathmandu valley watershed of Nepal

Study RegionThe Kathmandu valley watershed (KVW), capital region of Nepal, which is one of the rapidly urbanizing areas not only in Nepal but in South Asia. Study FocusHaphazard landuse practice coupled with the lack of stringent landuse policies has put stress on already scarce resources like water, land, agriculture, etc. of the Kathmandu valley watershed (KVW). Given the underlying problem of unscientific landuse practice as a result of the rapid urbanization and the consequent water stress, this study has attempted to predict future landuse and hence comprehensively assess the spatio-temporal dynamics of water yield components in KVW from the past to the future. New Hydrological Insights for the regionA forecast of future land use indicates that nearly half of KVW will be covered by built-up areas by 2040. Land use changes are expected to significantly affect water yield components, particularly at the sub-basin level. Subbasin responses to land use and land cover (LULC) changes are most prominent for surface runoff, followed by groundwater flow, lateral flow, with the least impact on evapotranspiration (ET). Anticipated outcomes include a substantial 70% reduction in groundwater flow and a potential 200% increase in surface runoff in certain subbasins. These findings emphasize the urgent need to regulate land use practices and develop effective strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of uncontrolled urban expansion.

The impact of LUCC on the spatial pattern of ecological network during urbanization: A case study of Jinan City

Urbanization, driven by rapid economic growth, has resulted in dramatic land use/cover change (LUCC), posing substantial risks to urban ecological security. While constructing ecological networks is a productive strategy for achieving a balance between ecological protection and urbanization, the limited research conducted on the impacts of LUCC on the spatial patterns of ecological networks during urbanization poses a hindrance to the scientific construction of ecological networks. Therefore, this study focuses on Jinan City, an important city situated in the downstream region of the Yellow River Basin, China. The study utilized simulation approaches, including MSPA, MCR, InVEST model and gravity model, to investigate and analyze the ecological networks of Jinan City from 2000 to 2020. A set of patterns capturing the changes in ecological network elements was proposed to explore the evolutionary characteristics of the spatial pattern of ecological networks. Finally, Geodetector was utilized to investigate the impact mechanism of LUCC on the spatial pattern of ecological networks. The study findings indicate that: (1) During the last two decades, the urban development in Jinan City has witnessed an expansion of approximately 588.83 km2, and the proportion of ecological land has also increased, but the overall structure and spatial distribution of construction and ecological land are not balanced. (2) Despite the expansion of ecological areas, the escalation of ecological resistance has resulted in significant degradation of the functional capacity of ecological corridors, with a decrease of 8.37 % in the number of primary corridors. The reduced spatial connectivity of the ecological networks has impeded the efficient cycling of ecological processes between ecosystems. (3) The complex interactions and cumulative effects of LUCC during urbanization led to the evolution of the spatial pattern of ecological networks. The transformation of cropland and construction into ecological land has improved the composition elements of the ecological network, while the encroachment on ecological land and disorderly changes in internal types are the principal factors causing the degradation of ecological network composition elements. (4) The spatial pattern of ecological networks in Jinan City is influenced by the coupling of urban expansion and ecological protection policies. However, there is a need for the government to strengthen policy coordination and optimize spatial layout to better manage and conserve ecological networks. This study holds the potential to offer valuable scientific insights and references for guiding spatial planning, ecological protection, and the formulation of sustainable development policies throughout the urbanization process.

Impact of land use/cover change (LUCC) on sediment connectivity in small watersheds based on a revised index algorithm

Soil erosion is an important cause of global land degradation and other ecological and environmental problems. Revealing the influence mechanism of land use/cover change (LUCC) on sediment yield can provide a scientific basis for efficient comprehensive and decision-making management of watersheds. As an important indicator of sediment yield and transport capacity, sediment connectivity has been widely studied in recent years. However, the existing index of sediment connectivity (IC) ignores the influence of upslope land use/cover on confluence and the corresponding changes in downslope sediment transport. Moreover, a formula describing the upslope and downslope components does not establish an effective correlation with existing soil erosion formulas. Therefore, the index is not closely related to the erosion process and does not reflect the physical process of sediment transport and sediment deposition. In addition, there have been few reports concerning the effect of LUCC on sediment connectivity inside (on-site impact) and outside (off-site impact) the changed patches. Consequently, by based on addition of the revised parameters of the effective confluence area (Ar) and the runoff velocity factor (v) of the sediment delivery distributed (SEDD) model, an improved sediment connectivity index (ICZQ) is proposed. The results indicate that ICZQ has a significant linear relationship with annual runoff depth or sediment yield modulus in small watersheds within 100 km2 in the Loess Plateau, except for feature years containing rainstorm events (daily rainfall exceeding 50 mm). Therefore, the runoff and sediment transport capacity of small watersheds can be characterized by ICZQ under the influence of LUCC and rainfall change. In 1982–2020, driven by LUCC with an enhancement in vegetation (forest and grass), the ICZQ decreased in 90% of the area and decreased by a significant or extremely significant level over 48% of the area. To better understand the effects of LUCC on sediment connectivity, we analyzed on-site and off-site impacts with rainfall remaining unchanged to control the variables. The contribution rates of the on-site and off-site impacts caused by LUCC on sediment connectivity in Lvergou were 61% and 39%, 48% and 52%, respectively, over two typical periods (1985–1990 and 2015–2020). Due to the large proportion that off-site impacts occupied in the sediment connectivity change, the impact of LUCC on sediment connectivity cannot be ignored, especially when the associated scale is relatively small. The present study provides a quantitative method for the optimization of land use/cover patterns, such as vegetation restoration in watersheds along with a reference for further revealing the impact mechanism of erosion and sediment yield in watersheds.

Spatiotemporal Analysis and Multi-Scenario Prediction of Ecosystem Services Based on Land Use/Cover Change in a Mountain-Watershed Region, China

Land use/cover change (LUCC) accompanied by climate change and human activities will have unpredictable impacts on watershed ecosystems. However, the extent to which these land use changes affect the spatial and temporal distribution of ecosystem services (ESs) in different regions remains unclear. The impact of LUCC on ESs in the Qingjiang Watershed (QJW), an ecologically sensitive area, and LUCC’s role in future ESs under different land use scenarios are crucial to promoting ecological conservation and land use management. This paper assessed water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), carbon storage (CS) and habitat quality (HQ) using the InVEST model, and their responses to LUCC in the QJW from 1990 to 2018 using the geodetector and multiscale geographically weighted regression. We predicted land use patterns using the Logistic–CA–Markov model and their effects on ESs in 2034 under business as usual (BAU), ecological land protection (ELP), arable land protection (ALP) and ecological economic construction (EEC) scenarios. From 1990 to 2018, the area of cropland and woodland decreased by 28.3 and 138.17 km2, respectively, while the built-up land increased by 96.65 km2. The WY increased by 18.92%, while the SC, CS and HQ decreased by 26.94%, 1.05% and 0.4%, respectively. The increase in the arable land area led to a increase in WY, and the decrease in forest land and the increase in construction land led to a decrease in SC, CS and HQ. In addition to being influenced by land use patterns, WY and SC were influenced mainly by meteorological and topographical factors, respectively. In 2034, there was an obvious spatial growth conflict between cropland and construction land, especially in the area centered on Lichuan, Enshi and Yidu counties. Under four scenarios, WY and SC were ranked ALP > BAU > EEC > ELP, while CS and HQ were ranked ELP > EEC > BAU > ALP. Considering the sustainable eco-socio-economic development of the QJW, the EEC scenario can be chosen as a future development plan. These results can indicate how to rationally improve the supply of watershed ESs through land resource allocation, promoting sustainable regional development in mountainous watershed areas.

Changes in the economic value of ecosystem services in rapidly growing urban areas: the case of Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Assessing the effects of land use patterns on ecosystem services can provide a conceptual foundation and point of reference for spatial planning strategies. The benefits ecosystems bring to individuals' lives and general well-being are referred to as ecosystem services. Land use/land cover (LULC) could influence various ecosystems and have implications for natural habitats and the quality of life. LULC has changed dramatically in Bangladesh during the past few decades, notably in the Dhaka Metropolitan Area. However, no attempt has been made to examine the co-evolution of LULC variations and values of ecosystem services (ESV) in the Dhaka Metropolitan Area. The study's objective is to evaluate the impact of LULC changes and different socio-demographic factors on ESV. LULC data sets were extracted from Landsat OLI and TIRS images using maximum likelihood classification. Analyses were conducted on both ESV estimations and driving forces, and the influence of LULC dynamics on the ESV was assessed. Data from 1991, 2001, 2011, and 2021 were used to estimate ESVs. LULC in the major metropolitan area of Dhaka has seen considerable changes between 1991 and 2021, with the most important change being the declination of water bodies, vegetation, and agricultural land. Vegetation and agricultural land proportions dropped from 22.50% and 19.29%, respectively, to 6.45% and 10.60%. Overall, there was a US$25.11M drop in ESV during 1991-2021. The study emphasizes the value of integrated land use planning for tightly regulating and controlling the growth of built-up regions. This will be essential for maintaining ecological sustainability and contributing to ecosystem resilience.

Assessing the link between land use/land cover changes and land surface temperature in Himalayan urban center, Srinagar.

The rapidly growing urbanization and the consequent land use/land cover (LULC) changes have resulted in unsustainable growth of cities in Indian subcontinent especially in Himalayan region which are highly sensitivity to condition like climate change. Using multi-temporal and multi-spectral satellite datasets, this study analyzes the impact of LULC changes on land surface temperature (LST) in the Himalayan city of Srinagar from 1992 to 2020. For LULC classification, the maximum likelihood classifier technique was utilized, and to extract LST from Landsat 5 (TM) and Landsat 8 (TM) (OLI), spectral radiance was employed. The results show that, among various LULC classes, built-up area has seen a maximum increase of 14% while agriculture has decreased by about 21%. On the whole, Srinagar city has witnessed an increase in LST by 4.5°C with maximum increase of 5.35°C especially over marshes and a minimum increase of 4°C on agriculture landscape. Other LULC categories of built-up, water bodies, and plantation saw an increase in LST by 4.19°C, 4.47°C, and 5.07°C, respectively. The transformation of marshes into built-up saw a maximum increase in LST by 7.18°C followed by water body to built-up (6.96°C) and water body to agriculture (6.18°C) while minimum increase was seen in the conversion of agriculture to marshes by about 2.42°C followed by agriculture to plantation (3.84°C) and plantation to marshes (3.86°C). The findings may be useful to urban planners and policymakers in terms of land use planning and city thermal environment control.

Land use/land cover dynamics driven changes in woody species diversity and ecosystem services value in tropical rainforest frontier: A 20-year history

Land use/land cover (LULC) change is a prominent problem in tropical forests. However, the fundamental question of how much woody species diversity was lost and ecosystem services value (ESV) changed in response to LULC conversion has rarely been studied. Therefore, the objective of this study was to assess the impact of LULC change on woody species diversity and ecosystem service value in the last two decades in the tropical rainforest frontier taking the case of Sheka Forest Biosphere Reserve (SFBR), Southwest Ethiopia. Supervised image classification with a maximum likelihood approach was employed and 90 quadrants were laid for the woody species inventory. Diversity indices and descriptive statistics were computed and the non-parametric test (Kruskal-Wallis) was used to test the effect of LULC change on woody species diversity. The benefit transfer method was used to estimate the monetary value of ecosystem services adopting coefficients from empirical studies. The woody species richness, diversity, and evenness varied (X2 = 71.887, p < 0.05) across LULC types. The highest diversity was observed in the forest followed by cropland, coffee plantation, homegarden, and tea plantation. The estimated total ecosystem service value (ESV) was reduced by 21.56% from 309.11 million US$ in 1999 to 242.47 million US$ in 2020. Transition to mono-crop like tea plantations to maximize income not only altered native woody species but also induced the expansion of exotic species and reduced ESV, indicating a detrimental impact of LULC change on ecosystem integrity and stability in the future. Although LULC conversion destruct woody species diversity, cropland, coffee plantation and the homegardens were the refuge for some endemic and conservation priority species. Further, addressing contemporary challenges of LULC conversion through introducing mechanisms such as payment for ecosystem services that increase the economic and livelihood benefits of natural forests to local communities is important. Effective conservation and sustainable use approaches in which such species are systematically integrated into land use practices have to be planned and implemented. This could contribute to strengthening the conservation effectiveness of the SFBR of UNESCO and serve as a showcase for such conservation areas around the globe. The LULC challenges, particularly those emanating from local livelihood needs, could impede our efforts to conserve biodiversity, jeopardize the reliability of future projections, and have an impact on the conservation of threatened ecosystems, if it is not adequately addressed in time.

Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use/Cover Change on the Net Primary Productivity of Vegetation in the Qinghai Lake Basin.

The Qinghai Lake Basin acts as a natural barrier, preventing the western desert from spreading eastward. This is an important link in preserving the ecological stability of the northeastern region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Therefore, quantitative research into the net primary productivity (NPP) of vegetation and its driving force in the Qinghai Lake Basin is required. The effects of land use/cover change (LUCC) and climate change on NPP in the Qinghai Lake Basin were studied using R-contribution ratio and partial correlation analysis methods using MOD17A3H products, Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) data, and meteorological data. (1) The LULC of the Qinghai Lake Basin showed a trend that "the area of grassland, cultivated land, and unused land continued to decrease, while the area of other LULC types increased" from 2000 to 2020, according to the study's findings. Grassland, water bodies, construction land, and unused land dominated the mutual transformation of LULC types. (2) The NPP of the basin showed a growing trend, with a growth rate of 3.93 gC·m-2·a-1 before 2010 and 0.88 gC·m-2·a-1 after 2010. Significant regional heterogeneity was found in NPP, with gradients decreasing from southeast to northwest. (3) The impact of LUCC on overall NPP changes had gradually increased. Climate change has been the primary driver of NPP changes in the Qinghai Lake Basin over the last 20 years.

Risk assessment of urban rainstorm flood disaster based on land use/land cover simulation

AbstractUnder the urbanization context, land use/land cover (LULC) changes rapidly which affects both the probability of urban flood disaster and its consequence. In order to explore the impact of LULC changes on rainstorm flood disaster risk in the future, a framework of rainstorm flood disaster risk assessment is constructed from natural‐social perspective through LULC simulation based on the patch‐generating land use simulation (PLUS) model in this study. Specifically, the spatial LULC under three future development scenarios (inertia development scenario, economic priority scenario and sustainable development scenario) for the year 2030 is simulated, and then assessment model of rainstorm flood disaster risk is constructed through obtaining inundation depth and social vulnerability based on simulated LULC. Jingdezhen City in China is selected as an example. The results show that proposed risk assessment framework based on PLUS model can be used to detect the risk changes in different development scenarios. The risk of urban rainstorm flood disaster under economic priority scenario is most severe and risk under the sustainable development scenario is the lowest under the same return period rainstorm. Under the sustainable development scenario, green land including forest land, grassland and open water increases, which reduces the surface runoff and decrease the risk of rainstorm flood disaster effectively, however the reduction is limited with the greater rainstorm return period. Therefore, adaptive measures should be implemented together with land use planning to prevent and control urban flood risk. This study provides a framework to predict the future risk of urban rainstorm flood under different development scenarios, which can support for flood disaster risk prevention and urban sustainable development.

Evaluation of Urban Thermal Comfort and Its Relationship with Land Use/Land Cover Change: A Case Study of Three Urban Agglomerations, China

With the acceleration of urbanization in China, the urban surface thermal environment has undergone significant changes. This work aims to calculate the urban thermal comfort index using a temperature and humidity model with the land surface temperature and relative humidity. It also aims to explain the association between the land use/land cover change (LUCC) and urban surface thermal environment of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) Region, the Guangdong–Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) and the Yangtze River Delta (YZD) in 2020, 2015, 2010 and 2005 using geographically weighted regression. The results reveal that (1) the three urban agglomerations have substantial heat island intensity regions, which are clustered and zonally distributed, and the annual average rates of the heat island area growth in the three regions are 1.01%, 1.41% and 1.09%, respectively. (2) Many uncomfortable areas exist in the three urban agglomerations, with an exponential growth trend in summer, and the annual average proportion of the uncomfortable areas in the three regions are 60.8%, 56.8% and 49.4%, respectively. (3) From the spatial point of view, the high-thermal comfort index areas of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao expand to the coast, and the high-index areas of the Yangtze River Delta expand to the inland. In terms of time, the annual distribution of thermal comfort in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei is discrete, but the annual distribution of thermal comfort in Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao and the Yangtze River Delta is concentrated. (4) In LUCC, the change intensity in construction land has a remarkable effect on the change in thermal comfort. The areas where the thermal comfort index increases positively correlate with the areas where the construction land increases. This study enriches the research on the impact of LUCC on urban ecological performance, and thus provides the necessary scientific basis for urban environment construction.

Integration of LULC change/prediction and hydrological modeler for assessment of the effect of LULC Change on peak discharge in Sari Watershed, Sumbawa Island, Indonesia

Flood is the main hazard that frequently occurs in Sari Watershed, Sumbawa Island, West Nusa Tenggara Province, Indonesia. The Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change, especially from the forest into non-forest coverage, may have contributed to the increased surface runoff and flooding frequency downstream. Because of the contradicting effects that these processes have on the risk of flooding, it is difficult to predict what the long-term impact of LULC changes will be on flooding in Sari Watershed. This study evaluated the effect of LULC change and prediction on peak discharge in the Sari watershed from 1990 to 2030. LULC maps of 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 were obtained by Landsat images classification, whereas 2025 and 2030 were from prediction. LULC change and prediction analysis used the ANN (Artificial Neural network)-CA (Cellular Automata) Markov model. Peak discharge for each year was calculated using the HEC-HMS model. The relationship between LULC change and peak discharge was analyzed with correlation analysis. The result showed that the trend of peak discharge dynamic was consistent with the tendencies of LULC change, particularly from forest coverage to non-forest coverage. Based on correlation analysis, the peak discharge dynamic correlated with the shift in LULC during the analysis period. The study result may provide a reference for flood risk reduction and LULC planning in Sari Watershed.

Effects of Land Use/Cover Change on the Ecosystem Service Values in the Greater Bay Area of China Accounting for Spatiotemporal Complexity

With the rapid development of the economy, the land use/cover change (LUCC) in the Greater Bay Area (GBA) has undergone tremendous changes, which have had directly negative effects on ecosystem functions and services. The development of sustainable land use strategies to quantitatively evaluate ecosystem services is required. Based on multitemporal land use data (2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020), the equivalent coefficients table method was used to assess the ecosystem service values (ESVs), and the impact of LUCC on ecosystem services was analyzed. A future land use simulation (FLUS) model and multiscenario simulations were employed to predict land use change in 2030. Our results indicated that the loss of ESVs decreased by 14.29 billion yuan from 2005 to 2020. The spatial distribution of the high-value ecosystem services was concentrated around the peripheral area of the northern regions in the GBA, and those areas had less land use development and human activity. Compared with those in 2020, the total ESVs of the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, socioeconomic development (SED) scenario, and cultivated protection priority (CPP) scenario in 2030 decreased, while they increased in the ecological protection priority (EPP) scenario. In the CPP scenario, regulating, supporting, provisioning, and cultural services increased slightly, but they decreased in the other scenarios. The patterns of LUCC were the main reasons for the decrease in ESVs, such as the loss of land with high ecological value. Additionally, a four-quadrant analysis is introduced to determine which land use simulation will be expected to be adopted by the government. The findings of this study provide valuable information for decision-making and policy development in the coastal zones and for the sustainable management of ecosystems.

Spatio-temporal variations of ecosystem service values in response to land use/cover change in Luoyang city

Land-use/cover change (LUCC) caused by human activities is an important factor in changes in global ecosystems; however, the impact of LUCC on ecosystem service value (ESV) has never been previously assessed in Luoyang City, China. This paper explores spatial and temporal evolution patterns of land use pattern change, ESV change and response to LUCC in Luoyang City from 2010 to 2019 through GIS and remote sensing techniques, and employing transfer matrix, ESV spatial autocorrelation analysis and elastic coefficient change. During the study period: 1) Between 2010 and 2019, land-use changes in Luoyang City showed a trend of “two increases and four decreases,” specifically, built-up land and forest areas increased, while the extent of cropland, grassland, water, and unused land areas decreased. 2) The recorded land-use conversion in Luoyang City is complex, with forest and cropland land uses increasing and decreasing fastest, respectively, with the proportion of forest increasing by 10.19% and cropland decreasing by 3.37% — the reason for this change is the transition from cropland and grassland to forest and occupation of cropland by built-up land. 3) The ESV change in Luoyang City was U-shaped, with the total ESV increasing 1.96% from ¥44.78 billion to ¥45.66 billion; additionally, the ESV provided by forest areas increased by 23.83%. 4) From 2010 to 2019, Luoyang’s hydrological regulation, climate regulation and soil and water conservation contributed the most to Luoyang’s ESV, accounting for 63.89% of the total ESV in 2019. 5) The overall ESVs of the townships in Luoyang City have obvious clustering and are not completely randomly spatially distributed. With the optimization of land-use allocation, the ESV high–high clusters have expanded. 6) The overall elasticity coefficient is high in Luoyang City and ESV responds intensely to LUCC, with the most significant response shown by the forests of Luolong District. The findings of this survey are practical for helping Luoyang City to optimize land resource usage scientifically.

Response and multi-scenario prediction of carbon storage to land use/cover change in the main urban area of Chongqing, China

Carbon storage services play an important role in maintaining ecosystem stability. Land use/cover change (LUCC) is the dominant factor generating changes in the ecosystem carbon storage. Demonstrating the impact of LUCC on regional carbon storage changes and predicting future carbon storage under different land use scenarios is of great significance for promoting regional carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. Taking the main urban area of Chongqing as an example, this study analyzes carbon storage changes from 2000 to 2020 and the response to LUCC. The Markov-FLUS model is employed to predict the land use pattern of the main urban area in 2035 under four scenarios, and the InVEST model is used to assess carbon storage in 2035 under different scenarios. The results can be summarized as follows: 1) In the past 20 years, the area of cultivated land in the main urban areas of Chongqing decreased by 743.29 km2, and the area of construction land increased by 773.48 km2. About 18.8 % of the main urban area of Chongqing was transferred, the conversion of cultivated land to construction land being the most important type of transfer. 2) In 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, the carbon storage in the main urban area was 59.85, 59.29, 57.90, 56.95, and 54.07 Tg, respectively, showing an annually decreasing trend with a cumulative decrease of 5.78 Tg. The cultivated land occupation by construction land is the leading factor for the rapid decrease of carbon storage. The spatial distribution of carbon storage in the main urban area differs significantly, exhibiting a low in the middle and high in the surrounding areas. 3) In 2035, the carbon storage in the main urban area shows different degrees of decline in the Natural Trend Scenario (NTS), the Food Security Scenario (FSS) and the High Urbanization Scenario (HUS), decreasing by 3.37, 0.59, and 5.25 Tg, respectively. The only increase by 1.51 Tg is found in the Ecological Security Scenario (ESS). Therefore, under the background of the “Dual Carbon” targets and the important positioning of Chongqing as an important ecological barrier in the Yangtze River Basin, the ESS can be considered in the future development planning of the main urban area of Chongqing, which can both increase carbon sink and ensure ecological security.

Optimal Operation of Nashe Hydropower Reservoir under Land Use Land Cover Change in Blue Nile River Basin

Changes in LULC (land use land cover), which significantly influence the spatial and temporal distribution of hydrological processes and water resources in general, have a substantial impact on hydropower generation. The utilization of an optimization approach in order to analyze the operation of reservoirs is an important concern in the planning and management of water resources. The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and the HEC-ResPRM (Hydrologic Engineering Center reservoir evaluation system Prescriptive Reservoir Model) were combined to model and optimize the Nashe hydropower reservoir operation in the Blue Nile River Basin (BNRB). The stream flow into the reservoir was determined using the SWAT model, considering the current and future impacts of LULC changes. The HEC-ResPRM model has been utilized in order to generate the optimal hydropower reservoir operation by using the results of the SWAT calibrated and validated stream flow as input data. This study proposes a method for integrating the HEC-ResPRM and SWAT models to examine the effects of historical and future land use land cover change on the watershed’s hydrological processes and reservoir operation. Therefore, the study aimed to investigate the current and future optimal reservoir operation scenarios for water resources management concerning hydropower generation under the effect of LULC changes. The results reveal that both the 2035 and 2050 LULC change scenarios show the increased operation of hydropower reservoirs with increasing reservoir inflows, releases, storage, and reservoir elevation in the future. The effects of LULC change on the study area’s hydrological components reveal an increase in surface runoff until 2035, and its decrease from 2035 to 2050. The average annual reservoir storage and elevation in the 2050 LULC scenario increased by 7.25% and 2.27%, respectively, when compared to the current optimized scenario. Therefore, changes in LULC have a significant effect on hydropower development by changing the total annual and monthly reservoir inflow volumes and their seasonal distribution. Reservoir operating rule curves have been commonly implemented in the operation of hydropower reservoirs, since they help operators to make essential, optimal decisions with available stream flow. Moreover, the generated future reservoir rule curves can be utilized as a reference for the long-term prediction of hydropower generation capacity, and assist concerned authorities in the successful operation of the reservoir under the impact of LULC changes.

Land Zoning Management to Achieve Carbon Neutrality: A Case Study of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration, China

Land use/cover change (LUCC) has been identified as a crucial driver of changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. However, few studies have proposed land use optimization to identify key zones for launching ecological engineering projects. Adopting multi-source data and spatial analysis, we estimate the impact of LUCC on CO2 emissions and ecological support capacity. Importantly, the spatial evolution and inequality of carbon sources and sinks are evaluated. The results suggest that (1) the growth of urban areas due to urbanization has exceeded 5293 km2 over the last 18 years and that the number of closed forest areas increased by 1444 km2 while decreases of 16,418, 9437, and 1250 km2 were observed in the water body, cropland, and grassland land-use types, respectively; (2) CO2 levels rose dramatically in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration, increasing from 8.7 × 107 tCO2 in 2000 to 26 × 107 tCO2 in 2018; (3) there is increasing inequality in the emission levels among cities; and (4) the spatial differences in the carbon sink and ecological support capacity are huge. Our findings have the potential to improve the government’s understanding of how to take action to optimize land-use types and how to launch engineering projects in key zones to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality, as well as to provide a new perspective for studies on the controls and mitigation of CO2 emissions.

Impact of LUCC on landscape pattern in the Yangtze River Basin during 2001–2019

Evaluating the influences of LUCC (Land Use/Land Cover Change) on landscape pattern is significant for understanding and improving ecological environment system management. This study used landscape pattern as an important indicator to estimate the impacts of the LUCC in the Yangtze River Basin from 2001 to 2019. Based on the remote sensing images of LULC (Land Use/Land Cover) in the Yangtze River Basin in 2001–2019, the dynamic attitude and transfer matrix of LULC, and landscape pattern indices were employed to analyze the LUCC and the impact of LULC on the landscape pattern of the Yangtze River Basin. The results of LUCC show that the main LUCC in the Yangtze River Basin during 2001–2019 is mainly manifested by the increase of water body, forest, wetland, crop/natural vegetation mosaic (NVM) and urban, among which the forest increased the most by 62,635 km2. The areas of grassland and cropland are decreasing, with the grassland decreasing the most. Forest, crop/NVM and cropland are transformed into grassland, which complements the lack of grassland to some extent. LUCC in the Yangtze River Basin is most intense between grassland and forest. Landscape pattern shows: Grassland occupies an important advantage in the whole landscape structure. Forest, grassland and urban landscapes are seriously fragmented, and their LSI (Landscape Shape Index) is more complex than others. The connectivity between various landscape types is weakened, and the degree of landscape fragmentation is increased, but the LULC structure is becoming more and more abundant. The areas with high landscape fragmentation value have richer landscape diversity and diverse LULC types. There is a strong correlation between grassland and the four landscape pattern indices. The change of landscape pattern in the Yangtze River Basin is influenced by natural factors and LUCC in the Yangtze River Basin, and the change caused by human activities is the main driving factor of LUCC.