Ecosystem services response to future land use/cover change (LUCC) under multiple scenarios: A case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China

Abstract

Ecosystem service functions are significant in responding to future LUCC for urban sustainability. Unfortunately, the present works are absent from the coupling effects of resource utilization intensity, climate and environmental changes, and various socio-economic development patterns, failing to clarify the dynamic response of ecosystem service functions to LUCC. To address this gap, we propose a new integrated framework to achieve multi-scenario simulation of future LUCC and assessing ecosystem services from the dual perspectives of land demand structure and function. On this basis, taking the BTH region as an example, we first explore ecosystem services response to future LUCC under multiple scenarios, then discuss the impact of LUCC on ecosystem services across different situations, and provide recommendations and research directions. The main findings show that: (1) The coupling of the multi-objective programming (MOP) and system dynamics (SD) models can better predict the future development trend from the dual perspectives of structure and function. (2) The SSP126 scenario is optimal in terms of preserving farmland, forest, and grassland or restricting built-up land expansion, which aligns better with the development of LUCC under the coordinated development. (3) With regard to ecosystem services, the SSP126 scenario outperforms the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios.