Impact Of Exchange Rate Research Articles

The Impact of FDI, Portfolio Investment, Tourism, Inflation, Net Exports, and Exchange Rate on Asean-6 Balance of Payments: The Moderating Role of Corruption Perception Index from an Islamic Perspective

The Impact of FDI, Portfolio Investment, Tourism, Inflation, Net Exports, and Exchange Rate on Asean-6 Balance of Payments: The Moderating Role of Corruption Perception Index from an Islamic Perspective

Impact of exchange rates, Inflation, foreign direct investment, government spending, and economic openness on exports, imports, and economic growth in Indonesia

Globalization and economic integration have an impact on increasing trade volume and economic growth in various countries, especially those that are open in their economies. This situation also provides ease of capital mobility between countries, which makes investment not only rely on domestic investment but also on foreign direct investment. Exchange rates and inflation also affect export growth, imports, and economic growth. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of exchange rate, inflation, foreign direct investment, government expenditure, and economic openness on export and import growth. This study used time series data during the period 1980–2021, sourced from UNCTAD, ASYB, and Indonesian Central Bank (BI). The analysis model used is multiple linear regression with the help of EViews software, which first tests classical assumptions so that the regression results are Best Linier Unbiased Estimator (BLUE). The results show that foreign direct investment and government spending can significantly increase the rate of exports and imports. Meanwhile, the depreciating rupiah against the US dollar cannot encourage an increase in both exports and imports. Furthermore, foreign direct investment, government spending, and economic openness can significantly increase economic growth. The other variables, net exports and inflation, have no effect on Indonesia’s economic growth rate.

The impact of external debt and exchange rate on foreign direct investment in emerging investment markets: new evidence using a PMG-ARDL panel data analysis

The impact of external debt and exchange rate on foreign direct investment in emerging investment markets: new evidence using a PMG-ARDL panel data analysis

Impact of exchange rate on economic growth in Nigeria

This study examined the effect of exchange rate dynamics on economic growth in Nigeria from 1985 to 2021. The study utilized secondary data sources from the World Development Indicators (WDI) and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. It employed real gross domestic product as a measure of economic growth. In addition to the official exchange rate as a proxy for exchange rate dynamics, the study integrated other domestic factors that can affect economic growth, such as trade openness and external reserves. The econometric techniques employed in the study were unit root tests, cointegration, and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)/bound techniques. Following the outcome of the bound test, it was reported that a long-run relationship exists between economic growth, exchange rate, trade openness, and external reserves. The long-run ARDL results reveal that the exchange rate had a positive and statistically significant effect on real GDP in Nigeria, with a unit increase in the exchange rate raising the real GDP by 0.3986 units in the long run; trade openness had a positive and not statistically significant impact on real GDP in Nigeria, suggesting that a unit increase in trade openness increases real GDP by 0.0025 units in the long run; and external reserves had a positive and statistically significant impact on real GDP in Nigeria, indicating that a unit increase in external reserves increases real GDP by 0.4007 units in the long run. Based on the results, the study recommends that the government should develop policies that stabilize the exchange rate. This could involve enhancing foreign exchange reserves management, improving the transparency and predictability of foreign exchange interventions, and possibly considering a more flexible exchange rate regime that can adapt to external shocks while maintaining stability. Policies should focus on gradually opening up the economy to international trade through strategic trade agreements that protect key domestic industries while promoting sectors where Nigeria has a competitive advantage. This approach will help mitigate any negative short-term impacts while capitalizing on long-term benefits. Keywords: Exchange Rate, Trade Openness, External Reserves and Real Gross Domestic Product.

The impact of gross domestic product, exchange rates and ACFTA implementation on Indonesia’s trade intensity index

The impact of gross domestic product, exchange rates and ACFTA implementation on Indonesia’s trade intensity index

How does exchange rate fluctuation affect the efficiency of Chinese enterprises' overseas mergers and acquisitions

With the changes in the global trade environment, the impact of exchange rate on cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) of enterprises cannot be ignored. Taking Chinese listed enterprises as the research sample, we establish a model of the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the efficiency of overseas mergers and acquisitions. The findings are as follows: (1) Exchange rate fluctuation significantly affects the completion rate of M&A. (2) Exchange rate fluctuations play an important role in shortening the time of overseas M&A. (3) Exchange rate volatility significantly affects M&A efficiency in high-income countries and highly competitive industries.

Assessing the Impact of Inflation and Exchange Rate on Nigerian Gross Domestic Product (1981-2022)

This study evaluated the impact of inflation and exchange rate on the Nigerian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 1981 to 2022. The data for this study were obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. Multiple Linear Regression model was adopted for the study to determine the relationship between the GDP, the inflation and exchange rates and the result showed that there is a significant relationship with the p-value (0.005). The result also showed with Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method that inflation rate has a negative impact on the Nigerian GDP while exchange rate is significant with (p-value <0,005) over the years of study. The value of the coefficient of variation R2 for this research is 92.2% indicating that inflation and exchange rate account for about 92% of the variation in the GDP over the years of study. It was observed there was an increase in exchange rate and price level is also detrimental to the economic growth, this means it contributes to the growth of Nigerian GDP over the period of study.

The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Real Effective Exchange Rate and Systemic Risks --Based on TVP-VAR Modeling

Today's international situation is complex and volatile, and the impact of economic policy uncertainty on systemic financial risk has attracted much attention. In this essay, the TVP-VAR model is used to investigate the mechanism of economic policy uncertainty on systemic financial risk and real effective exchange rate. It is found that its effect on both was characterized by time-varying and nonlinear, and the impact on systemic financial risk is mainly long-term, while the impact of real effective exchange rate is mainly short- and medium-term as long as. Meanwhile, the impact of economic policy uncertainty on systemic financial risk and real effective exchange rate under some specific risk events is more lasting.

Symmetric and Asymmetric Association Between Foreign Direct Investments and Macroeconomic Variables: An Ardl Approach

Objectives: The main objective of the study is to investigating the dynamic relationship between FDI and different Macro Economic Variables (MEVs) using the ARDL procedure, providing a more comprehensive understanding of the association between FDI and MEVs and to evaluate their relative importance for FDI. Methods: This study utilizes annual data from 1991 to 2021 from the World Bank (2021) and the Reserve Bank of India (2021). Data on GDP, Export, Inflation and interest rate, and FDI are collected from the World Bank. Autoregressive Distributive lag Model procedure has been used for the study in order to establish relationship between Macro economic variables and FDI. Results: Our methodological approach using ARDL model and finds: (a) a positive correlation between exports and FDI, (b) a negative impact of inflation and exchange rates on FDI in the long run. Non-linear ARDL analysis reveals the asymmetric impact of inflation and interest rate on FDI, which includes the effect of positive and negative shock of interest rate and inflation on FDI. d) 1% increase in inflation reduces FDI by 0.4% and if Inflation is reduced by 1%, FDI is increased by 0.2%. At the same time, the non-linear estimation of interest rates concludes that there is an asymmetric and significant association between interest rates and FDI. e) If Interest rate has increased by 1% FDI is decreased by 0.9% and if interest rate has reduced by 1% FDI has deceased by 1.63%. f) The causality analysis reveals that exports, GDP, and exchange rates are the significant economic variables that affect FDI. Conclusion: The study's findings have practical implications for policymakers and investors looking to attract more FDI in India. The results indicate that exports play a critical role in attracting FDI and that the government should focus on improving export performance to increase FDI inflows. Additionally, the study highlights the importance of controlling inflation and exchange rates to attract more foreign investment. The finding that interest rates have an asymmetric relationship with FDI suggests that policymakers should be cautious when implementing monetary policies that may impact interest rates. Overall, the study provides valuable insights for policymakers and investors looking to attract more FDI in India and highlights the importance of considering the country's macroeconomic conditions when making investment decisions.

Evaluating the Impact of Inflation and Exchange Rates on the Net Active Value (NAV) of Conventional Mutual Funds in Indonesia

The growing development in the financial industry and the current high inflation rate are a great worry for investment prospects, especially mutual funds. Conventional mutual funds in Indonesia have experienced significant growth in the capital market. In the last 10 years, the number of domestic mutual funds has continued to increase. One measure of investment performance in mutual funds is proxied by the Net Asset Value (NAV) of mutual funds. Therefore, the objective of this study is to evaluate the influence of macroeconomics variables on the NAV of conventional mutual funds in Indonesia. In this study, using commercial bank data in Indonesia, we estimate an empirical model of the effect of inflation and exchange rates on the NAV of conventional mutual funds in Indonesia during the period 2012–2022. We employ a time series model using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS). The main findings show that while inflation has no effect on the NAV of conventional mutual funds, the exchange rate has a significant effect on it because there are many instruments in conventional mutual funds that have invested abroad due to changes in exchange rates that appear with dominant results that do not affect the growth of the NAV of conventional mutual funds. Keywords: macroeconomics, net active value (NAV), mutual funds

Analyzing the Impact of Exchange Rates on Trade Performance in Tanzania: A VECM Approach

This paper investigates the relationship between exchange rates and trade performance in Tanzania using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis. The background discusses the importance of exchange rates in international trade and how fluctuating exchange rates can impact trade performance. The methodology section explains the research design, model specification, and estimation techniques employed, such as unit root tests, co-integration analysis, and VECM. The findings highlight a long-run positive relationship between exchange rates, foreign direct investment, GDP, and labor forces with trade performance, while inflation rate shows a negative impact. Granger causality tests reveal causal relationships between different variables and trade performance. The conclusions suggest policy recommendations for the government to enhance trade performance through fiscal and monetary policies and encourage further research in the field.

Analisis Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Dolar Amerika Serikat, Inflasi, Dan Produksi Terhadap Ekspor Ikan Hias Provinsi Jawa Timur

This study aims to determine and analyze the effect of the United States dollar exchange rate, inflation, and production on ornamental fish exports in East Java province. The researchers' strategy for this study is quantitative research, and they use statistical formulas to aid in the analysis of the data and information collected. The information used in this study is a subset of secondary data collected from organizations or organizations related to it and then reprocessed. The Central Bureau of Statistics of East Java and the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries are the organizations involved in this research. The Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries of East Java and the Central Bureau of Statistics are the organizations involved in this research. Documentation, or finding information about a subject or variable in the form of notes, books, papers or articles, journals, etc., is a strategy used to collect data for the study. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) conducted using SPSS software is an analytical technique used to assess the impact of the US dollar exchange rate, inflation, and production on ornamental fish exports in East Java Province. The results of this study show that the BLUE test conducted on export variables has no correlation, statistical analysis shows that simultaneously exchange rate variables, inflation, production affect ornamental fish exports, partial analysis reveals that exchange rates have little influence on ornamental fish exports, partial analysis shows that ornamental fish exports are significantly positively affected by inflation. Partial analysis on ornamental fish production has a significant impact on ornamental fish exports.

Effect of exchange rate uncertainty, energy prices and sectoral spending on agriculture value added, household consumption, and domestic investment

The agricultural value chain is underpinned by the interdependence of agricultural value added, household consumption and domestic investment. Understanding the complex interactions between these microeconomic outcomes and the uncertainties in the macroeconomic variables of exchange rates, energy prices and sectoral spending remains under-researched. Therefore, this study examines the impact of exchange rate, energy prices and sectoral spending on agricultural value added, household consumption and domestic investment in Nigeria from 1981 to 2020. Using Kernel regularized least squares (KRLS), the results show that the average pointwise marginal effects of exchange rate and agricultural spending are positive, while the average pointwise marginal effect of energy price is significantly negative for the agricultural value-added model. The results also show that the exchange rate, energy prices and agricultural expenditure all have a positive effect on household consumption. Regarding domestic investment, the effect of the exchange rate is positive and statistically insignificant, while the effects of energy prices and agricultural expenditure are negative and statistically significant. The study recommends the need to strengthen the social safety nets currently in place in Nigeria to support households that are vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations. In addition, incentives should be given to households and farmers to help use renewable energy sources such as solar or wind power for agricultural activities. Also, investment in value chains and agribusiness initiatives should be encouraged rather than just in crop production.

Factors Impact of the Stock Market Performance During the Covid-19 Crisis

Research originality: This research adds the exchange rate variable and the use of the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model that can add to the financial literature.Research Objectives: This study examines how macroeconomics can impact a business during a crisis. The stock market has associated access with new COVID-19 cases and new deaths in Indonesia. During the pandemic, the exchange rate is critical, so this study observes the exchange rate of IDR against USD. This paper investigates the relationship between new cases, new deaths, and the exchange rate with the stock market index.Research Methods: The study retrieves the daily data from March 2, 2020, to June 30, 2022, from Our World in Data, Indonesia's stock exchange, and Indonesia's Statistic Central Bureau. We have used the ADF, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model, impulse response function, and the Toda Yamamoto causality test. Empirical Results: The findings reveal a significant negative impact of new COVID-19 cases, new deaths, and exchange rates on the stock market. Toda Yamamoto's causality analysis reveals substantial evidence of unidirectional daily growth of new COVID-19 deaths in the stock market and a bidirectional causality of new COVID-19 cases and new COVID-19 deaths.Implications: The policy implications of this study are to stabilize markets, impact overall financial stability, support entrepreneurship, and develop a competitive market environment that can encourage innovation. JEL Classification: C5, E31, F31How to Cite:Goh, T. S., Henry, H., & Erika, E. (2024). Factors Impact of the Stock Market Performance During the Covid-19 Crisis. Etikonomi, 23(1), 47 – 62. https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v23i1.32005

Impact of Exchange Rate on the CSE All Share Price Index in Bangladesh: A Vector Error Correction Model-Based Study

Impact of Exchange Rate on the CSE All Share Price Index in Bangladesh: A Vector Error Correction Model-Based Study

Impact of Exchange Rate on Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria

The effect of the exchange rate on GDP growth in Nigeria from 1985–2021, according to this analysis. The World Bank's World Development Indicator (WDI) and the Central Bank of Nigeria's (CBN) Statistical Bulletin were used as secondary sources of data. The real exchange rate served as a stand-in for the actual exchange rate, while real gross domestic product was used to gauge economic growth. We used the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test to find out how integrated the series was. The bound test was used to test for cointegration. The bound test found that the exchange rate and economic growth are related in the long term. This research used the autoregressive distributed lag technique to estimate the short- and long-term effects of the exchange rate on GDP growth. The ARDL analysis shows that there is a weak negative correlation between the exchange rate and GDP growth. According to the research, trade openness has a small but favorable effect on GDP growth. Furthermore, the research indicated that foreign exchange reserves significantly and positively impacted economic development. There was also a negative and statistically significant relationship between interest rates and GDP growth. The analysis found that the exchange rate did not have a significant role in determining Nigeria's economic development. Given the importance of a stable and predictable exchange rate in boosting economic development, the research suggests that monetary authorities implement a policy primarily aimed at stabilizing exchange rates.

THE EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH EFFECT IN TÜRKİYE: FOURIER SHIN COINTEGRATION APPROACH (2006-2023)

In this research, the relationship between currency exchange rates and inflation in the context of Türkiye is investigated, covering the period 2006:Q1-2023:Q1. To achieve this objective, unit root tests on the variables are conducted using both Fourier KPSS and Standard KPSS methods. Additionally, Fourier SHIN and Standard SHIN cointegration tests are employed to determine the presence of a long-term connection between these variables. Furthermore, DOLS, FMOLS, and CCR estimators are utilized to estimate both long-term and short-term coefficients. The findings, which are obtained through all three estimation techniques, consistently indicate that increases in the exchange rate lead to higher inflation levels, whether in the long-term or the short-term. This result underscores the significant impact of exchange rates on inflation rates within the Türkiye economy. When Türkiye's economic structure is examined, it becomes evident that there is a substantial reliance on foreign exchange. This underscores the critical importance of maintaining exchange rate stability. Ultimately, the results emphasize the necessity of not only preserving exchange rate stability but also strengthening efforts to generate foreign exchange.

Exchange Rate And National Output Performances: The Implication On Nigeria’s Economy

The study investigated the effect of exchange rate on economic growth in Nigeria using annual time series data from 1970 to 2021. The data were obtained from Statistical Bulletin published by the Central Bank of Nigeria 2021. The empirical studies reviewed had divergent views on the impact of exchange rate on economic growth in Nigeria. The study began with the test of unit root using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Philip-Peron (PP) unit root tests, followed by Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM). The VECM indicated that exchange rate appreciation contracts output. The granger causality tests revealed that exchange rate and economic growth reinforce one another. However, based on these findings, it becomes imperative to build adequate foreign reserve to cushion-off trade shocks, promote import substitute industries, diversification of economy and enhance export oriented industries and reduction in cost of borrowing to enable domestic firms to benefit from the theoretical advantages of exchange rate variation. These measures promote the performances of macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. 
 

Influence Analysis of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Trade Balance Data Using Feature Important Evaluation Methods

This study delves into the intricate relationship between fluctuations in the real exchange rate and the trade balance, situated within the framework of a ‘two-country’ trade theory model. Despite a wealth of prior research on the impact of exchange rates on international trade, the precise extent of this influence remains a contentious issue. To bridge this gap, our research adopts a pioneering approach, employing three distinct artificial intelligence-based influence measurement methods: Mean Decrease Impurity (MDI), Permutation Importance Measurement (PIM), and Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP). These sophisticated techniques provide a nuanced and differentiated perspective, enabling specific and quantitative measurements of the real exchange rate’s impact on the trade balance. The outcomes derived from the application of these innovative methods shed light on the substantial contribution of the real exchange rate to the trade balance. Notably, the real exchange rate (RER) emerges as the second most influential factor within the ‘two-country’ trade model. This empirical evidence, drawn from a panel dataset of 78 nations over the period 1992–2021, addresses crucial gaps in the existing literature, offering a finer-grained understanding of how real exchange rates shape international trade dynamics. Importantly, our study implies that policymakers should recognize the pivotal role of the real exchange rate as a key determinant of trade flow.

The Impacts of the Interest Rate, the Exchange Rate, and the Market Index on the Stock Returns of the Brazilian Banks

Abstract This paper aims to analyze the impact of interest rate, exchange rate, and market on the returns and volatility of the stocks of banks listed on the Brazilian Stock Exchange. This analysis used two statistical models: the linear model estimated using Ordinary Least Squares and the ARCH/GARCH time series volatility models. The econometric studies considered the daily data of 15 financial institutions listed on the stock exchange during the period from January 2009 to December 2021. Regarding the market effect, the Ibovespa index for the period was considered; for the interest rate, the CDI (Certificate of Interbank Deposit) was used; and, about the exchange rate, the dollar rate was adopted as a reference. The results indicate that the distribution of stock returns is asymmetrical, with an elongated tail on the right. It was observed, based on the econometric model applied, that the daily returns of the shares are significantly influenced by the market, and the interest rate exerts the least impact on the returns. These findings are relevant to the scientific community exploring the topic and provide valuable insights for bankers, analysts, market investors, regulatory authorities, and society in the decision-making process. JEL classification numbers: C32, G00, G21. Keywords: Banking, Interest rates, Exchange rate, Bank stocks.