Impact of exchange rates, Inflation, foreign direct investment, government spending, and economic openness on exports, imports, and economic growth in Indonesia

Abstract

Globalization and economic integration have an impact on increasing trade volume and economic growth in various countries, especially those that are open in their economies. This situation also provides ease of capital mobility between countries, which makes investment not only rely on domestic investment but also on foreign direct investment. Exchange rates and inflation also affect export growth, imports, and economic growth. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of exchange rate, inflation, foreign direct investment, government expenditure, and economic openness on export and import growth. This study used time series data during the period 1980–2021, sourced from UNCTAD, ASYB, and Indonesian Central Bank (BI). The analysis model used is multiple linear regression with the help of EViews software, which first tests classical assumptions so that the regression results are Best Linier Unbiased Estimator (BLUE). The results show that foreign direct investment and government spending can significantly increase the rate of exports and imports. Meanwhile, the depreciating rupiah against the US dollar cannot encourage an increase in both exports and imports. Furthermore, foreign direct investment, government spending, and economic openness can significantly increase economic growth. The other variables, net exports and inflation, have no effect on Indonesia’s economic growth rate.