Impact Of El Nino Southern Oscillation Research Articles

Impact of ENSO and trends on the distribution of North American wintertime daily temperature

Abstract The effect of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection and climate change trends on observed North American wintertime daily 2-m temperature is investigated for 1960–2022 with a quantile regression model, which represents the variability of the full distribution of daily temperature, including extremes and changes in spread. Climate change trends are included as a predictor in the regression model to avoid the potentially confounding effect on ENSO teleconnections. Based on prior evidence of asymmetric impacts from El Niño and La Niña, the ENSO response is taken to be piecewise linear, and the regression model contains separate predictors for warm and cool ENSO. The relationship between these predictors and shifts in median, interquartile range, skewness, and kurtosis of daily 2-m temperature are summarized through Legendre polynomials. Warm ENSO conditions result in significant warming shifts in the median and contraction of the interquartile range in central-northern North America, while no opposite effect is found for cool ENSO conditions in this region. In the southern U.S., cool ENSO conditions produce a warming shift in the median, while warm ENSO has little impact on the median, but contracts the interquartile range. Climate change trends are present as a near-uniform warming in the median and across quantiles and have no discernable impact on interquartile range or higher-order moments. Trends and ENSO together explain a substantial fraction of the interannual variability of daily temperature distribution shifts across much of North America and, to a lesser extent, changes of the interquartile range.

Quantifying ENSOs Impact on Australia's Regional Monthly Rainfall Risk

AbstractThe El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is considered an important driver of rainfall variability in Australia, amongst many other global locations. Despite knowledge of the expected modulation of seasonal rainfall by ENSO, there is no consistently used method to quantify the role that specific ENSO events play in driving the observed anomalous rainfall. In this manuscript we adapt the Fraction of Attributable Risk (FAR) method, commonly used to identify the anthropogenic impact on a particular event, to quantify the impact of ENSO on the occurrence of monthly rainfall anomalies. We also explicitly calculate the ENSO induced change in risk and the FAR for all observed spring rainfall rates for our eastern Australian regions. A prominent role for ENSO in driving the large spring 2022 rainfall anomalies is identified. Though we choose to focus on ENSOs impact on rainfall in various Eastern Australian regions, the results are applicable to other climate modes, regions and climatic variables.

Impact of Solar Activity and ENSO on the Early Summer Asian Monsoon During the Last Millennium

AbstractThe Asian Monsoonal rainfall accounts for the majority of annual regional precipitation in East and South Asia and could be remotely regulated by El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Besides, several paleoclimate records and simulations have indicated solar signals in the Asian Monsoon, implying the impact of solar activity on the regional monsoon precipitation. By conducting multi‐linear regression analysis to the solar irradiance forced single‐forcing experiment in the last millennium, this study presents the comparison of solar and ENSO effects on monsoonal precipitation in South and East Asia during early summer (May–June). Increased total solar irradiance during high solar activity years tends to trigger a favorable environment for developing monsoon onset, leading to more precipitation against ENSO‐related patterns over Southeast and South Asia before peak‐summer (July–August). The result supports reconstructed terrestrial records and underlines considerable influences of the solar cycle on the variation of the Asian Summer Monsoon.

Mutating ENSO Impact on Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones Under Global Warming

AbstractA prominent feature of the western North Pacific tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) anomaly in response to El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a distinct west‐east dipole structure in the present‐day (PD) climate. Here, large ensemble high‐resolution simulations show that the current dipole may transform into a monopole under global warming (GW). In the PD climate, the ENSO‐induced dipole effect on TCGF is mainly observed in late autumn. However, GW accelerates this effect into the summer by amplifying atmospheric circulation anomalies. Consequently, this leads to a significant increase in the coastal TCGF during the development phase of El Niño under GW. Meanwhile, it weakens the anomalous anticyclonic circulation during late autumn, leading to an increase in coastal TCGF during the mature phase of El Niño, and vice versa. Therefore, the combined effect suggests a potential trend toward spatial homogenization during ENSO phases under GW.

The impact of ENSO and NAO initial conditions and anomalies on the modeled response to Pinatubo-sized volcanic forcing

Abstract. Strong, strato-volcanic eruptions are a substantial, intermittent source of natural climate variability. Initial atmospheric and oceanic conditions, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), also naturally impact climate on interannual timescales. We examine how initial conditions of ENSO and NAO contribute to the evolution of climate in the period following a Pinatubo-type eruption using a large (81-member) ensemble of model simulations in GISS model E2.1-G. Simulations are initialized from sampled conditions of ENSO and NAO using the protocol of the coordinated CMIP6 Volcanic Model Intercomparison Project (VolMIP) – where aerosols are forced with respect to time, latitude, and height. We analyze paired anomalous variations (perturbed – control) to understand changes in global and regional climate responses under positive, negative, and neutral ENSO and NAO conditions. In particular, we find that for paired anomalies there is a high probability of strong (∼1.5 ∘C) warming of northern Eurasia surface air temperature in the first winter after the volcanic eruption for negative NAO ensembles coincident with decreased lower stratospheric temperature at the poles, decreased geopotential height, and strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. Climate anomalies (relative to average conditions across the control period), however, show no mean warming and suggest that the strength of this response is impacted by conditions present in the selected period of the control run. Again using paired anomalies, we also observe that under both +ENSO and −ENSO ensembles sea surface temperature decreases in the first post-eruptive boreal winter coinciding with surface cooling from volcanic aerosols. Neutral ENSO ensembles, on the other hand, show variability in their response with no clear trend in post-eruptive warming or cooling. In general, paired anomalies from unperturbed simulations give insight into the evolution of the climate response to volcanic forcing; however, when compared with anomalies from climatological conditions, it is clear that paired anomalies are significantly affected by sampled initial conditions occurring at the time of the volcanic eruption.

Atmospheric modes fiddling the simulated ENSO impact on tropical cyclone genesis over the Northwest Pacific

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is crucial to the interannual variability of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP). However, most state-of-the-art climate models exhibit a consistent pattern of uncertainty in the simulated TC genesis frequency (TCGF) over the WNP in ENSO phases. Here, we analyze large ensemble simulations of TC-resolved climate models to identify the source of this uncertainty. Results show that large uncertainty appears in the South China Sea and east of the Philippines, primarily arising from two distinct atmospheric modes: the Matsuno-Gill-mode (MG-mode) and the Pacific-Japan-like pattern (PJ-mode). These two modes are closely associated with anomalous diabatic heating linked to tropical precipitation bias in model simulations. By conditionally constraining either of the modes, we can significantly reduce model uncertainty in simulating the dipole structure of the TCGF anomalies, confirming that it is the atmospheric circulation bias in response to tropical precipitation bias that causes uncertainty in the simulated WNP TCGF.

Evolution of ENSO‐related seasonal precipitation anomalies in East Asia: A robustness revisit

AbstractThe El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of seasonal climate predictability and a key predictor for East Asian precipitation. However, the impacts of ENSO on East Asian precipitation are extremely complex and still controversial. Thus, it is necessary and significant to use various (observational and model) data sources to further examine the robustness of the impacts. This study revisits the evolution of the ENSO‐related seasonal precipitation anomalies in East Asia, including symmetric and asymmetric impacts of El Niños and La Niñas, the differences in the influences of eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niños, and the interdecadal change of ENSO influences. The ENSO impact on East Asian precipitation has weakened (strengthened) in the ENSO's developing (decay) phase in the recent two decades. The ENSO impacts are robust in (i) southern China‐lower reaches of the Yangtze River‐southern Japan around the ENSO's mature phase, (ii) western North China in the developing phase and (iii) southwestern China in the decay phase. The distribution of East Asian precipitation anomalies is asymmetric in El Niño and La Niña years. The model simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature generally reproduce the observed evolution of seasonal precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO and confirm the robust impact of ENSO in East Asia. These results indicate the necessity to consider the asymmetric impact of El Niños and La Niñas, to distinguish the El Niño flavours for their impact on the East Asian climate, and to include the interdecadal variation of ENSO influence in addressing East Asian climate anomalies.

Impacts of Strong El Niño–Southern Oscillation Events on Wintertime Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks in Two Pacific Decadal Oscillation Phases during 1950–2010

Northern Hemisphere storm track activities (NHSTs) not only influence the weather and climate along their paths, but they also play a crucial role in climate systems by systematically transporting heat, momentum, and moisture. Distinguish from previous studies focusing on atmospheric circulation anomalies, this study provides further evidence of wintertime NHSTs variation under the influence of strong El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) variation with ERA-20C reanalysis data, from two mathematical aspects of linear superposition and nonlinear modulation. While ENSO warm/cold events lead the entire NHSTs to a general south/north shift, the ENSO impact in two PDO phases exhibits a remarkable difference with the PDO phase. The Pacific storm track (PST) anomalies largely strengthen equatorward and downstream when both ENSO and PDO are in phase, but its anomalies tend to be weakened when ENSO and PDO are out of phase. Generally, the opposite situation occurs with Atlantic storm track (AST) anomalies, which display a strengthening dipole pattern when ENSO and PDO are out of phase. Apparently, the result is roughly a linear superposition of ENSO and PDO-only impacts. Nevertheless, further analyses indicate that the nonlinear modulation of PDO on the ENSO impact on NHSTs exists. With respect to the PST, it exhibits approximately parallel bands of south-north dipole anomalies when ENSO is in the PDO positive phase, but only the south branch remains when ENSO is in the PDO negative phase. Generally, a similar situation occurs to AST anomalies over the Atlantic Ocean. The modulation may be mainly associated with the atmospheric mean flow anomalies and the midlatitude sea surface temperature anomalies to ENSO in different PDO phases. To some extent, the results may be beneficial for understanding the variation of extreme weather events brought by NHSTs.

Variation in the Impact of ENSO on the Western Pacific Pattern Influenced by ENSO Amplitude in CMIP6 Simulations

AbstractThe Western Pacific pattern (WP) is one of the most consequential atmospheric teleconnections during boreal winter, as it profoundly influences weather extremes and climate variability across Eurasia and North America. The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is suggested to be a crucial external forcing of WP variability. In this study, we meticulously evaluated the capability of 56 coupled climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6th phase (CMIP6) in replicating the winter ENSO‐WP connection. Our results reveal notable diversities in the portrayal of the winter ENSO‐WP relation across CMIP6 models. This model diversity in the ENSO‐WP connections primarily stems from the spread of the models' simulated ENSO amplitude. Specifically, models with enhanced ENSO amplitudes exhibit intensified sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial central‐eastern Pacific. This enhancement of SST anomalies faciliates stronger atmospheric convective anomalies, especially in the extratropical eastern Pacific and the tropical western North Pacific. Of particular note is the intensified atmospheric convective anomalies in the tropical western North Pacific, which exert a pivotal role in shaping the WP through initiating a distinct atmospheric teleconnection pattern.

Changes in biogenic volatile organic compound emissions in response to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation

Abstract. Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) from the terrestrial biosphere play a significant role in major atmospheric processes. BVOCs are highly reactive compounds that influence the atmosphere's oxidation capacity and also serve as precursors for the formation of aerosols that influence global radiation budgets. Emissions depend on the response of vegetation to atmospheric conditions (primarily temperature and light), as well as other stresses, e.g. from droughts and herbivory. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring cycle arising from anomalies in the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific. ENSO perturbs the natural seasonality of weather systems on both global and regional scales and is considered the most significant driver of climate variability. Several studies have evaluated the sensitivity of BVOC fluxes during ENSO events using historical transient simulations. While this approach employs realistic scenarios, it is difficult to assess the impact of ENSO alone given the multiple types of climate forcing, e.g. from anthropogenic emissions of CO2 and aerosol. In this study, a global atmospheric chemistry–climate model with enabled interactive vegetation was used to conduct two sets of simulations: (1) isolated ENSO event simulations, in which a single ENSO event is used to perturb otherwise baseline conditions, and (2) sustained ENSO simulations, in which the same ENSO conditions are reproduced for an extended period of time. From the isolated ENSO events, we present global and regional BVOC emission changes resulting from the immediate response of vegetation to atmospheric states. More focus is given to the sustained ENSO simulations, which have the benefit of reducing the internal variability for more robust statistics when linking atmospheric and vegetation variables with BVOC flux anomalies. Additionally, these simulations explore long-term changes in the biosphere with potential shifts in vegetation in this possible climate mode, accounting for the prospect of increased intensity and frequency of ENSO with climate change. Our results show that strong El Niño events increase global isoprene emission fluxes by 2.9 % and that one single ENSO event perturbs the Earth system so markedly that BVOC emission fluxes do not return to baseline emissions within several years after the event. We show that persistent ENSO conditions shift the vegetation to a new quasi-equilibrium state, leading to an amplification of BVOC emission changes with up to a 19 % increase in isoprene fluxes over the Amazon. We provide evidence that BVOC-induced changes in plant phenology, such as the leaf area index (LAI), have a significant influence on BVOC emissions in the sustained ENSO climate mode.

Quantifying the relative contributions of climate change and ENSO to flood occurrence in Bangladesh

Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to flood hazards, and its flood risk is projected to increase with global warming. In addition to climate change, internal climate variation, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), influences flooding in many rivers worldwide. However, the impact of internal climate variability on flooding in Bangladesh remains unclear due to the limited observations. Here, we assess the impacts of ENSO and climate change on flood occurrence in Bangladesh using a large-ensemble climate simulation dataset and a global river model (CaMa-Flood). After separating 6000 years of simulation (100-member ensemble river simulations for 1950–2010) into El Niño, La Niña, and neutral years, we calculated the extent to which each ENSO stage increased flood occurrence probability relative to the neutral state using the fraction of attributable risk method. In addition, we estimated the impact of historical climate change on past flood occurrence through a comparison of simulations with and without historical global warming. Under the no-global-warming climate, La Niña increased the occurrence probability of a 10 year return period flood at Hardinge Bridge on the Ganges River by 38% compared to neutral years. The influence of La Niña or El Niño state on flood occurrence probability in the Brahmaputra River at Bahadurabad station is negligible. Historical global warming increased the occurrence of flooding in the Ganges River, the Brahmaputra River, and their confluence by 59%, 44%, and 55%, respectively. The impact of ENSO on flood occurrence probability decreased in the historical simulation, likely due to the conflation of ENSO and climate change signals, and no significant correlation between ENSO and flood occurrence was detected when only small-ensemble simulations were used. These findings suggest that the use of large-ensemble climate simulation datasets is essential for precise attribution of the impacts of internal climate variability on flooding in Bangladesh.

Multiscale Influences on Rainfall in Northeast Australia

Abstract This study examines the multiscale modulation of mean and extreme rainfall in Northeast (NE) Australia under different background modes of variability, which is a new aspect given the high-resolution and long-term observational datasets. Daily rainfall probability is significantly modified by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), and its influence varies with the seasons and is associated with atmospheric circulation anomalies. Rainfall generally decreases during El Niño and increases during La Niña years; however, there is a notable spatial nuance to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-associated extreme rainfall, with some locations showing the opposite precipitation response to the typical ENSO–rainfall relationship. Despite more precipitation overall in La Niña years, the mean and extreme precipitation responses to the MJO appear to be stronger and more often statistically significant during El Niño compared to La Niña periods. The impact of ENSO on the MJO–rainfall relationship is stronger than the variation of the MJO itself with ENSO, and likely reflects a change in the MJO modulation of rain-bearing atmospheric processes. During El Niño periods, diurnal rainfall amplitude is generally stronger in the central and southern subtropical parts of the study area than during La Niña periods, while the opposite tendency occurs in the northern tropical part. The diurnal cycle of both mean and extreme precipitation is amplified during suppressed convection phases compared to enhanced convection phases of the MJO. In general, the peak time of diurnal cycle does not change with MJO regimes, but there are some notable differences in rainfall propagation between enhanced and suppressed MJO phases. Significance Statement This study presents a new perspective on the relationship between precipitation in Northeast (NE) Australia and two important climate modes, the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Rainfall in NE Australia is strongly influenced by the MJO, ENSO, and their interaction, suggesting that climate models need to capture both individual climate modes and their interactions for reliable rainfall projections. These findings have societal climate risk implications, as NE Australia is an area prone to catastrophic flooding due to extreme rainfall.

A spatio-temporal analysis of the role of climatic drivers influencing extreme precipitation events in a Costa Rican basin

Regional patterns of rainfall are changing around the world, putting pressure on social, economic, and environmental systems, and changing the outlook for food, water, and health security. This is the case in the Tempisque-Bebedero River Basin (TBRB), located on the Pacific slope of northwest Costa Rica, which relies heavily on water resources for tourism, agriculture, ranching, and fish farming. In this study, we use non-stationary extreme value analysis to characterize the climatic drivers of extreme precipitation in the TBRB. Daily extreme precipitation events at stations across the TBRB are selected using a peak-above-threshold approach, and interannual climate variability is included as time-varying covariates in a non-stationary point process model, using three regional climate indices: the Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ) index, the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), representative of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index. We find that the magnitude and frequency of precipitation extremes in the basin are driven by the CLLJ and the AMO. The ONI is only a significant driver of extreme precipitation in the northwestern region of the basin. This is likely because ENSO controls the strength of the CLLJ, thus the dominant impact of ENSO on precipitation in the TBRB may be incorporated within the CLLJ component of our model.

ENSO Impact on the Declining CO2 Sink Rate

The ocean and land processes which determine the rate of uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are many and complex. Simplified models of the net effect of all these processes can assist in the development of more detailed models. A simple time-dependent atmospheric CO2 budget model is shown to closely match yearly Mauna Loa CO2 concentrations during 1959-2021. The model assumes an anthropogenic CO2 source, and a constant yearly CO2 sink rate proportional to the excess of CO2 over a baseline equilibrium value determined by the Mauna Loa data. The yearly CO2 sink rate is found to be 2.02% of the atmospheric excess above 293.6 ppm, with a downward trend in the sink rate during 1959-2021 that disappears when El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity is empirically accounted for. Significant model departures from observations occurred for three years after the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. Assuming no change in the sink rate, the latest Energy Information Administration CO2 global emissions projections to 2050, and extrapolated to 2100, lead to model-projected CO2 concentrations well below the highest Representative Concentration Pathways scenario RCP8.5.

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Implication towards Crocodile River Water Quality in South Africa

This paper investigates the impact of ENSO on water quality by looking at COD, SS, and Escherichia coli along the Crocodile River. Water samples were collected between 2016 and 2021 at three strategic sites on the river and were tested in an accredited laboratory. Python (version 3.8), Spyder and Microsoft Excel 2019 were used to analyze the data. The highest COD concentration (800 mg/L) was recorded at the White River site during El Niño, followed by 600 mg/L during the normal period, and 240 mg/L during the La Niña period. In 2019 during La Niña and the normal period, the E. coli levels were centered in one place at 60 cfu/100 mL, while in 2021 no E. coli levels were detected from the La Niña, El Niño, and normal periods. The suspended solids in this study were more prevalent in the White River (upstream) during the El Niño period. These analyses demonstrate that it is possible to evaluate the local effects associated with large-scale climate variability.

The tropical Indian Ocean matters for U. S. winter precipitation variability and predictability

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the key predictor for operational seasonal climate prediction in the United States (U. S.). Compared with the impact of the tropical Pacific associated with ENSO, the role of the Indian Ocean on U. S. climate variability and predictability is less documented. In this work, we noted that the impact of the tropical Indian Ocean is stronger than the tropical Pacific on winter precipitation variability in a part of the southeastern contiguous U. S. (CONUS), mainly including Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama. Different from the north-south contrastive impact of ENSO, the influence of the Indian Ocean is confined to the southeastern CONUS. Basin-wide warming (cooling) in the tropical Indian Ocean is tied to above (below) normal winter precipitation in the southeastern CONUS. The observed relationship is reproduced in model forecasts and simulations. Physically, Indian Ocean heating anomaly communicates its influence by inducing a teleconnection from the Indian Ocean to the North Atlantic Ocean via the North Pacific. The connection provides an additional source of predictability of the winter precipitation in CONUS, and monitoring the heat condition in the Indian Ocean may benefit winter precipitation prediction in the southeastern CONUS.

Mapping long-term spatial impact of ENSO on hydroclimatic variables in China

Understanding the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on hydroclimatic variables is critical to early warning of ENSO-induced disasters. However, most studies employed the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTa) index of the Niño 3.4 region (hereinafter called Niño 3.4 SSTa) to assess its impact on those variables, while ignoring that of other Niño regions. This study aims to assess the long-term spatial impact of Niño 1 + 2 SSTa index on hydroclimatic variables in China. After removing seasonality, we found that the correlation between standardized surface pressure (SP)/ temperature (T)/ evapotranspiration (ET)/ terrestrial water storage (TWS) and Niño 1 + 2 SSTa was significantly better than that without removing seasonality. Niño 1 + 2 SSTa was also demonstrated to have a substantial impact on standardized precipitation index (SPI) in China, particularly during drought period. Notably, precipitation is a key driver of ET in response to Niño 1 + 2 SSTa in the time span. In addition, compared to that of Niño 3.4 SSTa, the hydroclimatic variables in response to Niño 1 + 2 SSTa are able to capture the basic geographical characteristics of China. In particular, the spatial configuration of China's terrain (TWS trend) is largely depicted by the spatial pattern of correlation coefficient between Niño 1 + 2 SSTa and SP (TWS), respectively. The above findings indicate that the spatial pattern of the long-term variations of hydroclimatic variables in China can potentially be monitored by SSTa in the Niño 1 + 2 region.

Impacts of Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Stratospheric Isentropic Mixing Process

The present study investigates the influences of stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the intensity of stratospheric isentropic mixing based on ERA-Interim and MERRA-2 reanalysis products. It is found that isentropic mixing in the stratosphere is modulated by QBO and ENSO. An analysis of the QBO basis function in the multiple regression model reveals that isentropic mixing in the lower stratosphere is suppressed in the equatorial region in the WQBO phase, while the mixing enhances in the subtropical and mid-latitude regions. This result is not consistent with the Holton–Tan mechanism. However, isentropic mixing in the mid-latitudes becomes stronger in the middle stratosphere in the EQBO phase, which agrees well with the Holton–Tan effect. Composite analysis indicates that QBO-induced changes in the direction and speed of the stratospheric zonal wind can affect wave propagation and wave breaking. In the WQBO phase, zonal wind weakens, and a planetary wave is anomalously converging near 30°N, which leads to an increase in isentropic mixing; on the contrary, wind speed becomes large, and the upward propagation of planetary wave divergence, which lead to the isentropic mixing, becomes weak near 60°N. In the EQBO phase, the wind is relatively weak around 60°N, and the isentropic mixing is strong. Multiple regression analysis reveals the ENSO impact on the intensity of isentropic mixing, which shows weak mixing in the middle and high latitudes and strong mixing in the low latitudes of the lower stratosphere in the El Niño years. In the middle stratosphere, isentropic mixing enhances in the mid-latitude region due to intensified upward propagation of planetary waves but weakens in the polar region. Composite analysis reveals a clear relationship between the mixing strength zones of the El Niño and La Niña years with the position of the polar jet and changes in zonal wind speed.

ENSO Impact on Summer Precipitation and Moisture Fluxes over the Mexican Altiplano

In the warm season, El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) causes periods with more rain in Northern Mexico during its positive phase, while less rainfall is recorded in the southern regions during the negative phase. This research study evaluates the variability of summer (July–September) precipitation and moisture fluxes under different ENSO scenarios in the Mexican Altiplano and coast of the state of Nayarit. The catchment of Rio San Pedro-Mezquital (SPM-RB) connects both regions. Using the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), the years that signal change from El Niño to La Niña (1998), neutral conditions (2005), and strong (moderate) La Niña (1999) were selected to get an insight of ENSO impact on summer precipitation. For anomalies in the Altiplano, two additional contrasting years were analyzed—2006 (mostly dry) and 2010 (wet)—to determine moisture sources. Summer rainfall conditions in 1998 and 1999 had an opposite behavior between coastal Nayarit (wet) and the Altiplano (dry), while in 2005, rainfall deficits were observed in both regions. The moisture fluxes showed large divergence areas over central Mexico and the Southeastern United States in years of intense drought (1998 and 1999) caused by two high-pressure cells at middle levels of the troposphere (500 hPa). The moisture transport mechanisms into the Altiplano were related to atmospheric circulation at the upper level (200 hPa). The variations of the moisture fluxes from 2006 to 2010 are less strong at middle levels. The Eastern Pacific moisture convergence along the western coast of Mexico favors above-average rainfall anomalies in the coastal region but below-average anomalies in the Altiplano.

Quantification of Global Cloud Properties With Use of Spherical Harmonic Functions

AbstractSpherical harmonic (SH) expansion is a useful tool to study any variable that has valid values at all latitudes and longitudes. The variable can be quantified as a sum of different spherical harmonic components, which are the spherical harmonic functions multiplied by their expansion coefficients. We find that the SH components of cloud radiative effect (CRE) have correlations with El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Hadley Circulation (HC). In particular, the expansion degree 2 () SH power spectrum component anomaly of CRE is strongly correlated with ENSO. The two dipole patterns appearing in the SH component anomaly map can be reasonably explained by a known mechanism of ENSO's impact on cloud properties. The and SH power spectrum components are correlated with HC intensity, whereas the and components are correlated with HC latitudinal widths. In ENSO warm and cold phases, the HC‐correlated SH components have opposite anomalies, which suggests the impact of ENSO on HC. This study illustrates that the SH expansion technique provides a different perspective to study the impacts of large‐scale atmospheric circulation on global cloud properties and radiative effects.