Immigration Probability Research Articles

Dispersal of a wolf with complex ancestry from the Dinaric–Alpine region to Germany demonstrates the value of transboundary monitoring networks

AbstractLarge carnivores such as wolves (Canis lupus) at times disperse distances of several hundred kilometers, which may enable gene flow over vast distances. Such long‐distance dispersal events, however, often remain undetected, and documenting long‐distance dispersers and their movements typically depend on strong transboundary collaborations. Here, we report the dispersal of a wolf (MSV0FF) from the Alpine region of northern Slovenia to Bavaria in southern Germany, a straight‐line distance of around 300 km. The disperser originated in a pack with a genetically diverse breeding pair, where the father exhibited ancestry from the Dinaric and Italian Alpine populations. Genetic analysis of the mother indicated that she was an immigrant from a divergent population further south in the Dinaric‐Balkan region. Such a varied ancestry augments the probability of immigrants being genetically misclassified as wolf‐dog hybrids in their area of arrival, which increases the risk of unfavorable management decisions toward individuals that would be genetically highly valuable for the recipient population. Wolf MSV0FF therefore demonstrates the benefits of international collaborative monitoring networks and the value of sharing samples and analytical approaches for the monitoring of wide‐ranging species.

Multiliteracy as human capital in first-generation adult immigrants in Germany

ABSTRACT In the present study, we combined the Focus on Multilingualism approach with the human capital theory to investigate multilingual profiles among first-generation adult immigrants in Germany and the relationship between immigrants’ multiliteracy and their employment status. We used data representative for Germany on the self-reported literacy skills in the majority, heritage, and foreign languages of first-generation immigrants (n = 451, age 18–64) gathered in the LEO 2018 study. To analyze multilingual literacy skills, we estimated adults’ multilingual profiles using LCA. In a second step, we conducted logistic regression models with multiliteracy and employment status. We found two multilingual profiles of first-generation immigrants: a profile with higher and a profile with lower literacy skills in all investigated languages. The profiles differed by the level of adults’ literacy skills in all investigated languages and showed a unique non-overlapping language ordering pattern. The results gained from the logistic regressions revealed that multiliteracy in first-generation immigrants may represent human capital in Germany. After controlling for additional variables (age, gender, education), the analysis showed that higher multiliteracy increases the probability of adult immigrants’ employment. Furthermore, our findings indicated independent positive effects of literacy in each language in multilingual repertoires on employment probability.

Drought Influences Annual Survival of Painted Turtles in Western Nebraska

Aquatic habitats in the Great Plains of North America have increased risk of droughts under climate forecasts. Droughts have the potential to influence the population dynamics of pond turtles, and long-term studies are useful to assess the impact of climatic variation on turtles. We compiled twelve years of mark-recapture data for painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) captured in a pond in Keith County, Nebraska during 2005–2016 that included two periods of drought. We used a robust design analysis to investigate influences on population size, annual survival, temporary immigration, and capture probability. Estimates of the annual population size ranged from 92 (CI: 90–94) to 180 (CI: 175–186) but did not vary with drought conditions. Despite a relatively stable depth of water in our study pond, the probability of annual survival was reduced by 0.07 in females and 0.10 in males during drought years. Approximately one-fifth (temporary emigration probability: 0.19, CI = 0.16–0.23) of the population was outside the study pond at any given time. Our long-term research provides insights into the potential challenges to turtles in aquatic habitats undergoing prolonged changes in long-term climate conditions.

ETIB‐T: An Equilibrium Theory of Island Biogeography for plant traits

AbstractAimThe Equilibrium Theory of Island Biogeography (ETIB) posits that species richness on islands represents a dynamic equilibrium between immigration and extinction. ETIB makes predictions about numbers of species and biogeographical rates, but not about species identities or functional traits. However, functional traits provide additional information in understanding the assembly of island biotas. Here, we build on ETIB's principle of community equilibria and investigate how these processes affect plant functional traits over time.LocationFifteen islands from 164 m2 to 19 km2 in Western Australia.TaxonAngiosperms.MethodsWe assembled an island‐trait dataset linking seed mass, plant height and leaf area of 156 species to their occurrences on 15 islands sampled four times within four decades. We estimated community trait means and functional diversity for each island and sampling period and tested whether both remained at equilibrium over time. Using linear models, we tested whether temporal species turnover is linked to specific traits. We used generalised linear mixed‐effect models to test for the effect of environmental characteristics on species and trait turnover.ResultsSpecies richness on the islands was at equilibrium as predicted by ETIB despite high species temporal turnover. Functional diversity and community trait means also were stable over time. Species most susceptible to turnover were on average smaller and had lower seed mass than persisting species. Environmental island characteristics had no strong effect in explaining species and trait turnover.Main conclusionsWe provide evidence that ETIB can be extended to functional traits, which we suggest to term Equilibrium Theory of Island Biogeography for Traits. Trait equilibria on islands suggest that locally extinct species are replaced by new ones sharing similar traits. Being small with light seeds increases both immigration probability and extinction risk.

Intergenerational Occupational Mobility, Labor Migration and Sustained Demographic Dividends

Based on the 1% sample survey of the National Population Census (2015), this paper empirically analyzes the impact of intergenerational occupational mobility levels on labor migration in terms of push and pull factors. We found that increasing the degree of intergenerational occupational mobility has a significant “agglomeration effect” on registered and mobile labor: reducing the emigration willingness of household registered labor and increasing the immigration probability of labor from cities with a lower degree of intergenerational occupational mobility. Labor migration generally occurs from cities with lower intergenerational occupational mobility to cities with a higher degree of intergenerational occupational mobility. The heterogeneity analysis reveals that the agglomeration effect of a city on native labor is insignificant in east, northwest and northeast China. Rural laborers, highly educated laborers and rural laborers with high education levels are more likely to move from their registered cities. The mechanism analysis finds that improving the city’s comprehensive economic incremental competitiveness will enhance the city’s agglomeration effect on native labor, while increasing the degree of educational returns will strengthen the city’s agglomeration effect on mobile labor from cities with a lower degree of intergenerational mobility. Moreover, after using IV-probit, IV-2SLS and heteroscedasticity-based IVs to deal with endogenous problems, the above conclusions are still robust. Our findings may contribute to realizing sustained demographic dividends through internal migration.

Employment effects of language training for unemployed immigrants

Proficiency in the host country’s language is an important factor for the successful labor market integration of immigrants. In this study, I analyze the effects of a language training program for professional purposes on the employment opportunities of participants in Germany. I apply an instrumental variable approach and exploit differences in lagged local training intensities. Bivariate probit estimates show that 2 years after the program started, the employment probability of immigrants who were unemployed in 2014 and participated in the program had increased by more than nine percentage points as a result of language training.

Winter fidelity, movements, and energy expenditure of Midcontinent Greater White-fronted Geese

BackgroundAnimal movement patterns are the result of both environmental and physiological effects, and the rates of movement and energy expenditure of given movement strategies are influenced by the physical environment an animal inhabits. Greater white-fronted geese in North America winter in ecologically distinct regions and have undergone a large-scale shift in wintering distribution over the past 20 years. White-fronts continue to winter in historical wintering areas in addition to contemporary areas, but the rates of movement among regions, and energetic consequences of those decisions, are unknown. Additionally, linkages between wintering and breeding regions are generally unknown, and may influence within-winter movement rates.MethodsWe used Global Positioning System and acceleration data from 97 white-fronts during two winters to elucidate movement characteristics, model regional transition probabilities using a multistate model in a Bayesian framework, estimate regional energy expenditure, and determine behavior time-allocation influences on energy expenditure using overall dynamic body acceleration and linear mixed-effects models. We assess the linkages between wintering and breeding regions by evaluating the winter distributions for each breeding region.ResultsWhite-fronts exhibited greater daily movement early in the winter period, and decreased movements as winter progressed. Transition probabilities were greatest towards contemporary winter regions and away from historical wintering regions. Energy expenditure was up to 55% greater, and white-fronts spent more time feeding and flying, in contemporary wintering regions compared to historical regions. White-fronts subsequently summered across their entire previously known breeding distribution, indicating substantial mixing of individuals of varying breeding provenance during winter.ConclusionsWhite-fronts revealed extreme plasticity in their wintering strategy, including high immigration probability to contemporary wintering regions, high emigration from historical wintering regions, and high regional fidelity to western regions, but frequent movements among eastern regions. Given that movements of white-fronts trended toward contemporary wintering regions, we anticipate that a wintering distribution shift eastward will continue. Unexpectedly, greater energy expenditure in contemporary wintering regions revealed variable energetic consequences of choice in wintering region and shifting distribution. Because geese spent more time feeding in contemporary regions than historical regions, increased energy expenditure is likely balanced by increased energy acquisition in contemporary wintering areas.

It depends: Partisan evaluation of conditional probability importance

Policies to suppress rare events such as terrorism often restrict co-occurring categories such as Muslim immigration. Evaluating restrictive policies requires clear thinking about conditional probabilities. For example, terrorism is extremely rare. So even if most terrorist immigrants are Muslim—a high “hit rate”—the inverse conditional probability of Muslim immigrants being terrorists is extremely low. Yet the inverse conditional probability is more relevant to evaluating restrictive policies such as the threat of terrorism if Muslim immigration were restricted. We suggest that people engage in partisan evaluation of conditional probabilities, judging hit rates as more important when they support politically prescribed restrictive policies. In two studies, supporters of expelling asylum seekers from Tel Aviv, Israel, of banning Muslim immigration and travel to the United States, and of banning assault weapons judged “hit rate” probabilities (e.g., that terrorists are Muslims) as more important than did policy opponents, who judged the inverse conditional probabilities (e.g., that Muslims are terrorists) as more important. These partisan differences spanned restrictive policies favored by Rightists and Republicans (expelling asylum seekers and banning Muslim travel) and by Democrats (banning assault weapons). Inviting partisans to adopt an unbiased expert’s perspective partially reduced these partisan differences. In Study 2 (but not Study 1), partisan differences were larger among more numerate partisans, suggesting that numeracy supported motivated reasoning. These findings have implications for polarization, political judgment, and policy evaluation. Even when partisans agree about what the statistical facts are, they markedly disagree about the relevance of those statistical facts.

Environmentally mediated reproductive success predicts breeding dispersal decisions in an early successional amphibian

Dispersal is a central mechanism in ecology and evolution. Dispersal evolution is driven by a trade-off between costs and benefits, which is influenced by interindividual variability and local environmental conditions (context-dependent dispersal). Many studies have investigated how dispersal decisions may be influenced by environmental factors, including density, predation and interspecific competition. Yet few have attempted to examine how habitat disturbance may affect the dispersal process in spatially structured populations. In early successional species, one might expect individuals to adjust their dispersal decisions based on two main factors that potentially have an influence on reproductive success: patch size and the level of patch disturbance. In this study, we examined how these two factors affect breeding success and dispersal decisions in an early successional amphibian, the yellow-bellied toad, Bombina variegata. To this end, we used capture–recapture data collected on a spatially structured population occupying 28 breeding patches. We took advantage of recent developments in multievent capture–recapture models to detect signs of context-dependent dispersal. The results revealed that the probability of successful reproduction and the number of newly metamorphosed individuals increased with both the size and the proportion of disturbance of a patch. In addition, our results showed that the factors affecting breeding success also influenced breeding dispersal probability. Large patch size negatively influenced emigration probability; in contrast, it positively influenced immigration probability. Equally, higher disturbance had a strong negative influence on emigration probability and slightly positively affected immigration probability. These findings strongly suggest that individuals make context-dependent dispersal decisions, adjusted to maximize future fitness prospects in a patch, allowing them to better cope with rapid changes in environmental conditions resulting from the ecological succession process. This opens new areas of potential research into the role of dispersal in organism specialization along an ecological succession gradient.

Small deviations of a Galton–Watson process with immigration

We consider a Galton–Watson process with immigration $(\mathcal{Z}_{n})$, with offspring probabilities $(p_{i})$ and immigration probabilities $(q_{i})$. In the case when $p_{0}=0$, $p_{1}\neq0$, $q_{0}=0$ (that is, when $\operatorname{essinf}(\mathcal{Z}_{n})$ grows linearly in $n$), we establish the asymptotics of the left tail $\mathbb{P}\{\mathcal{W}<\varepsilon\}$, as $\varepsilon\downarrow0$, of the martingale limit $\mathcal{W}$ of the process $(\mathcal{Z}_{n})$. Further, we consider the first generation $\mathcal{K}$ such that $\mathcal{Z}_{\mathcal{K}}\operatorname{essinf}(\mathcal{Z}_{\mathcal{K}})$ and study the asymptotic behaviour of $\mathcal{K}$ conditionally on $\{\mathcal{W}<\varepsilon\}$, as $\varepsilon\downarrow 0$. We find the growth scale and the fluctuations of $\mathcal{K}$ and compare the results with those for standard Galton–Watson processes.

The impact of host language proficiency on employment outcomes among immigrants in Spain

This paper presents estimates of the impact of host language proficiency on the probability of immigrants having an employment. The article uses data from the Spanish National Immigrant Survey and relies on two complementary econometric approaches, a 2SLS instrumental variable model and a bivariate probit model. Host language proficiency is instrumented using Bleakley and Chin (Rev Econ Stat 86:481–496, 2004) strategy, which exploits the fact that younger children learn languages more easily than older ones. Average treatment effects indicate that host language proficiency raises the probability of having a job by about 15 and 22 percentage points among men and women respectively. However, local effects can be more than twice as large.

Estimating transient populations of unmarked individuals at a migratory stopover site using generalized N‐mixture models

Abstract Migration counts are popular indices used to monitor population trends over time. Advanced analytical methods for estimating abundance of unmarked, open populations now incorporate population growth models and simultaneously test for covariate effects on abundance and detection probability. However, estimating population abundance at a staging site is complicated by daily immigration and emigration of unmarked individuals. We applied a set of generalized N‐mixture models to simulated count data to test their applicability for transient populations. Using simulated datasets, parameters were unbiased when the apparent survival rate varied within a season or was mis‐specified in a model, but not when the immigration or detection probability was mis‐specified. With knowledge from the simulated data, we applied these models to daily counts of staging migratory shorebirds and estimated daily abundances accounting for variation in the detection and immigration rates. Daily counts of ruddy turnstones (Arenaria interpres) staging at Westhampton Island, New York, were collected during northward migration (1997–1999). We tested the effects of weather and tides on detection probability, and we modelled within‐season variation in immigration rates as a function of time. Covariates affecting the detection probability differed among years, but tide height consistently was correlated with detection probability. Accounting for detection and immigration rates, the predicted maximum single‐day populations of ruddy turnstones were 172%, 165% and 129% of the observed counts for each year. Synthesis and applications. Management and conservation plans for migratory species require abundance estimates that are near the true population size though they are difficult to obtain. Our study is the first empirical application of the generalized N‐mixture model that incorporates temporal trends in immigration and estimates daily abundance of a staging unmarked migratory population. Despite its inherent limitation, we suggest that the generalized N‐mixture model can estimate the abundance of transient populations with low individual heterogeneity when counts are intensively surveyed. Correct estimation of population sizes and the environmental factors affecting them can aid the conservation prioritization of species and staging sites. Moreover, the use of generalized N‐mixture models can improve our understanding of the environmental factors that shape migratory movements.

Lifting the veil: richness measurements fail to detect systematic biodiversity change over three decades.

While there is widespread recognition of human involvement in biodiversity loss globally, at smaller spatial extents, the effects are less clear. One reason is that local effects are obscured by the use of summary biodiversity variables, such as species richness, that provide only limited insight into complex biodiversity change. Here, we use 30yr of invertebrate data from a metacommunity of 10 streams in Wales, UK, combined with regional surveys, to examine temporal changes in multiple biodiversity measures at local, metacommunity, and regional scales. There was no change in taxonomic or functional α-diversity and spatial β-diversity metrics at any scale over the 30-yr time series, suggesting a relative stasis in the system and no evidence for on-going homogenization. However, temporal changes in mean species composition were evident. Two independent approaches to estimate species niche breadth showed that compositional changes were associated with a systematic decline in mean community specialization. Estimates of species-specific local extinction and immigration probabilities suggested that this decline was linked to lower recolonization rates of specialists, rather than greater local extinction rates. Our results reveal the need for caution in implying stasis from patterns in α-diversity and spatial β-diversity measures that might mask non-random biodiversity changes over time. We also show how different but complementary approaches to estimate niche breadth and functional distinctness of species can reveal long-term trends in community homogenization likely to be important to conservation and ecosystem function.

Thinning affects understorey tree community assembly in monoculture plantations by facilitating stochastic immigration from the landscape

AbstractAimTo maintain biodiversity in plantation forest ecosystems it is important to understand the community assembly process. Canopy thinning effectively increases understorey diversity in plantation forests. However, the process of understorey community assembly after canopy thinning remains unclear. We compared the relative importance of two mechanisms that could affect the assembly of understorey woody communities after thinning: (1) environmental filtering due to competition from canopy trees, and (2) stochastic immigration. If the latter is dominant, the effectiveness of local treatment might be unpredictable because of the variable probability of immigration at each location.LocationYamagata Prefecture, Japan.MethodsWe censused the understorey tree communities in 18 quadrats (each 1 m × 1 m) in each of 49 stands of Japanese cedar plantations. The mean species richness of the 18 quadrats (alpha‐diversity), variation in community composition among them (beta‐diversity), deviation of beta‐diversity from that of a random community (beta‐deviation) and total species richness of the plots (gamma‐diversity) were compared among censuses (before thinning, 2 and 5 yr after thinning). The relative contributions of two explanatory variables to the various diversities were examined: (1) basal area of canopy trees (overstorey BA, an index of environmental filtering), and (2) available seed source in the surrounding landscape (landscape effect; an index of the probability of immigration).ResultsAlthough neither beta‐diversity nor gamma‐diversity changed throughout the censuses, the alpha‐diversity, stem abundance and beta‐deviation were affected by thinning. beta‐deviation increased after thinning. Overstorey BA limited alpha‐ and gamma‐diversity throughout the censuses. The landscape effect was more significant in terms of beta‐deviation after than before thinning. In addition, the effective scale of the landscape effect increased after thinning.ConclusionOur results indicate that both processes are important: thinning brought about an increase in the relative importance of stochastic immigration as well as a reduction in competitive pressure from canopy trees. These results suggest that while local treatment can increase understorey diversity, stochastic immigration from seed sources is the direct driver after thinning. Although local treatment is effective, its efficiency depends on the seed source availability in the surrounding landscape.

Coevolution of patch-type dependent emigration and patch-type dependent immigration

The three phases of dispersal - emigration, transfer and immigration - are affecting each other and the former and latter decisions may depend on patch types. Despite the inevitable fact of the complexity of the dispersal process, patch-type dependencies of dispersal decisions modelled as emigration and immigration are usually missing in theoretical dispersal models. Here, I investigate the coevolution of patch-type dependent emigration and patch-type dependent immigration in an extended Hamilton–May model. The dispersing population inhabits a landscape structured into many patches of two types and disperses during a continuous-time season. The trait under consideration is a four dimensional vector consisting of two values for emigration probability from the patches and two values for immigration probability into the patches of each type. Using the adaptive dynamics approach I show that four qualitatively different dispersal strategies may evolve in different parameter regions, including a counterintuitive strategy, where patches of one type are fully dispersed from (emigration probability is one) but individuals nevertheless always immigrate into them during the dispersal season (immigration probability is one). I present examples of evolutionary branching in a wide parameter range, when the patches with high local death rate during the dispersal season guarantee a high expected disperser output. I find that two dispersal strategies can coexist after evolutionary branching: a strategy with full immigration only into the patches with high expected disperser output coexists with a strategy that immigrates into any patch. Stochastic simulations agree with the numerical predictions. Since evolutionary branching is also found when immigration evolves alone, the present study is adding coevolutionary constraints on the emigration traits and hence finds that the coevolution of a higher dimensional trait sometimes hinders evolutionary diversification.

Structural organization of the social paper wasp (Hymenoptera: Polistinae) assemblage along a latitudinal gradient in the Atlantic Rainforest: correlating fauna partitioning to biodiversity centers

Based on species endemism, three biodiversity centers, called “Ecological Corridors” have been proposed as one of the main conservation strategies for the Atlantic Rain Forest. This study tested whether the organization of the social paper wasp assemblage fits those centers. A standardized protocol was used for sampling the social paper wasp fauna. The structural organization was estimated by Nonmetric Multidimensional Scaling (NMDS) based on the similarity indexes of Sorensen (qualitative data) and Morisita-Horn (quantitative data). Regressive models were applied to the first axes’ site scores of the NMDS, to the latitudinal and altitudinal variations, and to the speciation and immigration probabilities predicted by the neutral theory for a metacommunity. Our results indicated that the social paper wasp assemblage is organized in a continuum, with two distinct biodiversity centers. The organization of the assemblage along the gradient was dependent on latitudinal and altitudinal variations and their interactions, and also on the speciation and immigration probabilities. Several studies have demonstrated that the current biodiversity patterns of the Atlantic Forest might be explained by the past climate and, consequently, by the connection between the Amazon and the Atlantic Forest. In addition, speciation and immigration probabilities strongly influence the compositional and structural variations of the social paper wasp assemblage along the latitudinal gradient.

Diversity of Tiphiidae (Insecta: Hymenoptera) in the fragmented Brazilian semi-deciduous Atlantic Forest

The Atlantic Forest is one of the most important areas of biodiversity in the world, but it has been largely replaced with agropastoral areas and at the present only 12.5 % of the original cover remains. Despite the ecological importance of insects, few studies have been used in conservation approaches for the Atlantic Forest, mainly due to a great taxonomic impediment. A group quite ecologically important but deeply neglected includes parasitoid wasps that control a great number of invertebrates, like tiphiid wasps that are parasitoids of underground coleopteran larvae. The present study aimed to estimate Tiphiidae species richness and diversity in 15 patches of a highly fragmented Atlantic Forest region, using factors that drive the diversity pool from a metacommunity, such as immigration and speciation probabilities. The parameters were estimated using the Neutral Biodiversity Theory, which is based on the total ecological equivalence of species at the same trophic level. Diversity values were molded to the area size, the immigration probabilities, and/or the speciation probability. Eight genera and 460 individuals of Thynninae, Myzininae and Tiphiinae were collected. Variation in species richness, estimated by both rarefaction and first-order jackknife methods, was explained by patch size and by immigration and speciation probabilities. These variables also explained the variation in Shannon diversity and species evenness. Variations in species richness and diversity of Tiphiidae are strongly associated with neutral processes, but they are also influenced by forest fragmentation and intensive agricultural activities.

Are Immigrants More Likely to Be Involved in Criminal Activity in Saudi Arabia?

This paper aims to explain the effects of immigration on the overall crime rate and in the six most significant categories of crime in Saudi Arabia, being drugs activity, theft, murder, assault, alcohol and outrageous issues, during a ten-year period from 2003 to 2012, in all thirteen administrative provinces, as well as establish the provinces most affected by criminal activities of immigrants during this period. In our finding, no positive association between immigrants and criminal cases was noted. It is clearly visible that the highest rate of overall criminal activities is in the south, north and Makkah areas, where there is high probability of illegal immigrants, supporting the basic criminological theory that areas with high levels of immigrants also experience high rates of crime. The study provides suggestions to the Saudi government, policy and decision makers, and immigration authorities, which could assist in reducing crimes perpetrated by immigrants.

Knowledge of predator–prey interactions improves predictions of immigration and extinction in island biogeography

AbstractAimMacArthur and Wilson's original formulation of the theory of island biogeography (TIB) included the corollary hypothesis that species richness might affect immigration and extinction rates. Building on this, other researchers have suggested additional top‐down and bottom‐up effects. We compare these hypotheses to identify the strongest candidates for inclusion in a ‘trophic TIB’.LocationSix mangrove islands in the Florida Keys, USAMethodsWe studied a classic island biogeography time series featuring lists of species observed on six mangrove islands during roughly 16 censuses each across 700 days. We first used this time series to determine the number of opportunities for species to immigrate to an island for the first time (n = 18,420), to go locally extinct (n = 1943) or to re‐immigrate to an island after having previously gone extinct (n = 1813). We then leveraged information on the predators and prey of those species to estimate the potential for top‐down and bottom‐up interactions during each census period. Finally, we constructed statistical models to test for species richness, top‐down, and bottom‐up effects on per‐species immigration and extinction probabilities and validated them by comparing each model with a similar model based on the classic TIB.ResultsWe found that models including bottom‐up effects gave the greatest improvement over the classic TIB models. Extinction probability in particular decreased sharply for species with both basal resources and animal prey available. Species richness and top‐down effects had far weaker impacts on per‐species probabilities of immigration and extinction.Main conclusionsOur findings suggest that incorporating information on the trophic structure of island communities – particularly the species‐specific availability of resources – can substantially alter predictions of extinction probabilities. Immigration probability, on the contrary, appeared largely stochastic. Incorporating trophic information into predictions of extinction rates therefore represents the most promising and best‐supported way to extend the TIB.

Vigorous dynamics underlie a stable population of the endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia in Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia.

Population monitoring programmes and estimation of vital rates are key to understanding the mechanisms of population growth, decline or stability, and are important for effective conservation action. We report, for the first time, the population trends and vital rates of the endangered snow leopard based on camera trapping over four years in the Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia. We used robust design multi-season mark-recapture analysis to estimate the trends in abundance, sex ratio, survival probability and the probability of temporary emigration and immigration for adult and young snow leopards. The snow leopard population remained constant over most of the study period, with no apparent growth (λ = 1.08+−0.25). Comparison of model results with the “known population” of radio-collared snow leopards suggested high accuracy in our estimates. Although seemingly stable, vigorous underlying dynamics were evident in this population, with the adult sex ratio shifting from being male-biased to female-biased (1.67 to 0.38 males per female) during the study. Adult survival probability was 0.82 (SE+−0.08) and that of young was 0.83 (SE+−0.15) and 0.77 (SE +−0.2) respectively, before and after the age of 2 years. Young snow leopards showed a high probability of temporary emigration and immigration (0.6, SE +−0.19 and 0.68, SE +−0.32 before and after the age of 2 years) though not the adults (0.02 SE+−0.07). While the current female-bias in the population and the number of cubs born each year seemingly render the study population safe, the vigorous dynamics suggests that the situation can change quickly. The reduction in the proportion of male snow leopards may be indicative of continuing anthropogenic pressures. Our work reiterates the importance of monitoring both the abundance and population dynamics of species for effective conservation.