Intergenerational Occupational Mobility, Labor Migration and Sustained Demographic Dividends

Anqi Yu,Guankun Liu,Yuning Gao

doi:10.3390/su14053110

Abstract

Based on the 1% sample survey of the National Population Census (2015), this paper empirically analyzes the impact of intergenerational occupational mobility levels on labor migration in terms of push and pull factors. We found that increasing the degree of intergenerational occupational mobility has a significant “agglomeration effect” on registered and mobile labor: reducing the emigration willingness of household registered labor and increasing the immigration probability of labor from cities with a lower degree of intergenerational occupational mobility. Labor migration generally occurs from cities with lower intergenerational occupational mobility to cities with a higher degree of intergenerational occupational mobility. The heterogeneity analysis reveals that the agglomeration effect of a city on native labor is insignificant in east, northwest and northeast China. Rural laborers, highly educated laborers and rural laborers with high education levels are more likely to move from their registered cities. The mechanism analysis finds that improving the city’s comprehensive economic incremental competitiveness will enhance the city’s agglomeration effect on native labor, while increasing the degree of educational returns will strengthen the city’s agglomeration effect on mobile labor from cities with a lower degree of intergenerational mobility. Moreover, after using IV-probit, IV-2SLS and heteroscedasticity-based IVs to deal with endogenous problems, the above conclusions are still robust. Our findings may contribute to realizing sustained demographic dividends through internal migration.

Highlights

Since the reform and opening up in the late 1970s, the remarkable economic achievements in China can be attributed largely to the “demographic dividend”; that is, the economic benefits of the demographic structural transition
We find that highly educated laborers and rural laborers with high educational attainment are more likely to migrate from their registered cities and move to cities with a higher degree of intergenerational occupational mobility
The articles most related to this paper can be broadly divided into three branches: (1) Constructing regional intergenerational mobility based on individual or household income data in developed countries

Summary

Introduction

Since the reform and opening up in the late 1970s, the remarkable economic achievements in China can be attributed largely to the “demographic dividend”; that is, the economic benefits of the demographic structural transition (an increase in the labor participation ratio and a decline in the dependence ratio). As the tendency of population ageing and low birth rates become increasingly severe, most studies have identified the. Lewis’ turning point in the Chinese labor market [1–3]. National Population Census, the total fertility ratio in China decreased to 1.3 (significantly below replacement fertility levels) in 2020, and the annual number of new births hit a new low of 12 million. As a result of population ageing and having fewer children, the sustainability of China’s “demographic dividend” is facing severe challenges.

Methods

Results

Conclusion