Illicit Tobacco Trade Research Articles

Evaluating compliance with track and trace and other regulations in Pakistan's cigarette market.

To control the illicit cigarette market, the government of Pakistan adopted a Tracking and Tracing System (TTS) that was fully operational by July 2022, despite many roadblocks. By this date, major tobacco companies had either registered their brands with the tax authority and/or installed TTS. This paper is the first to evaluate the degree of compliance with the TTS by evaluating the extent and nature of illicit trade in tobacco products. We use randomised sampling to collect cigarette packs from waste recycling stores located in the ten most populous cities of Pakistan, to evaluate illicit trade penetration. Almost a third of the packs collected did not bear a tax stamp, mostly due to the lack of compliance by local companies, confirming a recent review of the TTS implementation by the Federal Bureau of Revenue (FBR). Even the largest companies that ostensibly adopted the TTS did not fully comply with the system, signalling poor enforcement. This is a missed opportunity, since a well-functioning TTS combined with proper enforcement is an effective means of controlling illicit tobacco trade, boosting tax revenue and improving public health. However, the enforcement should not be limited to the TTS since 23.6% of packs did not comply with other regulatory requirements.

A Systematic Investigation of Tobacco Industry Sourced Data Relating to Illicit Tobacco Trade Featured in Pakistan's Media Coverage (2015-2020).

Previous evidence suggests the tobacco industry uses media to disseminate misleading narratives relating to illicit tobacco trade (ITT) as part of efforts to influence policy outcomes. Such evidence is largely high-income countries (HIC) focused, resulting in a literature gap for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Pakistan and its annual budget cycle are used as a case study for addressing this gap. Electronic English-language articles from newspapers in Pakistan (328) were sourced from LexisNexis and a sub-sample of Urdu-language electronic articles (12) were identified through internet searches. The articles were published between 2015 and 2020 and included claims/estimates relating to ITT, which were coded to identify cited data sources. Changes in media coverage before and after Pakistan's annual budget announcements were explored via Wilcoxon signed rank and Poisson regression tests. Of the 357 claims/estimates analyzed, 66 (20%) were industry-funded. The most prevalent sources were national government bodies (36.6%) and tobacco companies or their representatives (15.1%). Wilcoxon signed-rank and Poisson regression tests on the frequency of English-language articles both created a p-value of < .05 for the frequency of relevant articles between the months of April and May, compared to the other months, indicating statistical significance. There was a statistically significant increase in the number of English-language articles featuring claims/estimates relating to Pakistan's ITT in the months leading up to the annual budget each year. The government should consider measures to improve transparency standards within media coverage and promote factcheck journalism to safeguard against industry tactics to manipulate public discourses. This paper is, to the best of our knowledge, the largest exploration of the use of data sourced from the tobacco industry within a country's media that has been undertaken to date, utilizing a team of seven coders across the United Kingdom and Pakistan. Our findings reveal weaknesses within media coverage of ITT in Pakistan, both in English and Urdu language publications. We encourage the government to consider new standards to enhance transparency and promote factcheck journalism within media coverage in the country.

Tobacco Control Policy in India: Progress and Challenges Quantified Using the Tobacco Control Scale.

One of the most vexing challenges to public health today is the menace of tobacco. Despite the large body of evidence indicating the vast scale of health hazards, tobacco use continues to be a major cause of preventable death. This study was conducted with the objective of quantifying the progress and challenges of the tobacco control policy of India. The Tobacco Control Scale (TCS) was used, which has a maximum score of 100 and assesses nine components including, price of cigarettes, smoke-free public and work places, spending on public information campaigns, comprehensive bans on advertising and promotion, large pictorial health warning labels, treatment to help smokers stop, illicit tobacco trade, tobacco industry interference and ratification of the WHO FCTC. The components of the TCS for India were scored based on data obtained from the WHO, Report on The Global Tobacco Epidemic, 2021 and the Cigarettes and Other Tobacco Products Act 2003 and their amendments and the Tobacco India 2023 country profile. The total score for the tobacco control scale placed India at 65 points, scoring highest with respect to 'large pictorial health warning labels', and lower with respect to 'spending on public information campaigns', 'illicit tobacco trade' and 'price of cigarettes'. Strong tobacco control legislation and its equally robust implementation is an affirmative step in achieving the vision of the WHO-FCTC and empowering the world towards being tobacco free.

Balanced Approach Regulatory Measures for Excise Tax on Tobacco and Nicotine-Based Products with Differential Degrees of Harm

This paper reports a study that analyses regulatory measures for excise tax on tobacco and nicotine-based products in Malaysia.The study highlights current non-optimal nature of excise tax due to a lack of differentiation between the varying degrees of harm caused by different tobacco and nicotine-based products within a given category. The study aims to address this issue by proposing a regulatory measure that adopts a balanced approach to taxing harmful tobacco and nicotine-based products. A focus group discussion involving a group of experts in tax and excise tax, medical and pharmacology, and law and policy was conducted to gather expert inputs on policy compliance with international standards for excise tax on tobacco and nicotine-based products; effectiveness of current policies in addressing harm differentials; and setting excise tax rates to balance harm levels and combat illicit trade. This study concludes that, Malaysia should adopt a balanced approach regulatory measures to combat illicit tobacco trade and promote harm reduction and equitable public health outcomes.This study recommends a differentiated excise tax for tobacco products in Malaysia based on harm and addiction levels, aiming tobalance the excise-duty with differential degrees of harm and optimize policy effectiveness towards achieving a smoke-free Malaysia by 2040. The proposed recommendation is aligned with Article 6 Guidelines of the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

The Extent of Illicit Cigarette Sales in Five Rural Districts of Pakistan: A Cross-sectional Study.

The Illicit Tobacco Trade (ITT) subverts tobacco control efforts. Cigarette packs sold without legal health warnings undermine efforts to warn the public about the dangers of tobacco. Furthermore, cigarettes sold below minimum retail prices are indicative of tax evasion leading to revenue loss and budgetary deficits in high tobacco-burden economies. The extent of the ITT in rural areas of such countries might differ from urban. We estimated the extent of illicit cigarette sales in selected rural areas of Pakistan. We analyzed cigarette packs collected from 85 villages in Pakistan as part of a cross-sectional consumer survey of 2550 rural households. We classified cigarette packs as noncompliant if these were missing: A text health warning, pictorial health warning (PHW), underage sale prohibition warning, retail price, or manufacturer details. To measure the extent of tax evasion, we estimated the proportion of packs purchased below the legal minimum retail price. Only 35% (429/1228) of rural smokers were able to show their cigarette packs. Out of these, 89% (382/429) of packs were noncompliant with the cigarette packaging and labeling laws. In rural areas, 83% (357/429) of packs did not have PHW and 33.8% (145/429) did not have printed retail prices. Among all packs, 41% (177/429) were purchased below the minimum retail price of 63 Pakistani Rupees and hence highly likely to have evaded taxes. We found a very high previously unreported proportion of noncompliant cigarette packs in selected rural areas of Pakistan indicating weaker implementation of tobacco control laws in rural areas. This paper presents previously unreported estimates of the share of illicit cigarette sales in rural areas of Pakistan. Most packs (89%) in our sample were noncompliant with the packaging and labeling regulations and a significant proportion (41%) were purchased below the minimum price. The extent of illicit tobacco was found to be far greater in rural than in urban areas of Pakistan. Taking advantage of poor law enforcement, the tobacco industry may be complicit in flooding the rural markets with illegal and cheap cigarettes. Given this disparity, law enforcement authorities must focus on rural areas.

Smoking out Australia's growing illicit tobacco market: Current trends and future challenges

Data from the Australian Taxation Office and Australian Border Force show notable recent increases in illicit tobacco seizures across Australia. The illicit tobacco market results in substantial losses in tax revenue, funds organised crime, and perpetuates tobacco use, threatening to undermine Australia's ability to achieve its national commercial tobacco endgame goal of 5 % or less smoking prevalence by 2030. This commentary discusses recent trends in Australia's illicit tobacco trade, reasons why this is of concern, potential drivers of Australians’ illicit tobacco use, and policy measures that could be implemented to mitigate increasing illicit tobacco trade such as implementing a track and trace system, increased investment in the Australian Border Force to enhance detection of illicit tobacco shipments at Australia's borders, and encouraging public tip-offs of illicit tobacco sales.

Commercial tobacco endgame themes in the Australian media from 2000 to 2021

BackgroundConventional tobacco control is dominated by demand-reduction measures, whereas commercial tobacco endgame (endgame) policies address the key drivers that maintain the tobacco epidemic, such as Tobacco Industry interference in policymaking,...

Taxation of tobacco, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages: reviewing the evidence and dispelling the myths

The article reviews the large body of evidence on how taxation affects the consumption of tobacco, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB). There is abundant evidence that demand for tobacco, alcohol,...

Yasadışı tütün ticaretinin bir analizi: idari yaptırım ve yüksek vergilendirmenin etkinliğinin yasa dışı ticaret üzerindeki etkisi

Even though tobacco products are commonly legal substances, the illicit tobacco trade is one of the largest among other illegal products and services. Although high taxation is often blamed for the development of illicit tobacco trade, it is the strength and efficiency of the regulatory framework that should form the focus attention when investigating the control of illicit trade. This secondary based research aims to analyse the relationship between the estimated size of illicit tobacco trade and the strength of enforcement, together with the influence of taxation on illicit tobacco trade. The results demonstrate that the size of illicit tobacco trade tends to be smaller where countries have strong enforcement capability. Moreover, countries with strong enforcement capability can also increase taxation on tobacco products while suppressing the development of illicit tobacco trade. Finally, as illicit tobacco products are mainly traded across borders, the weak law enforcement of some governments can undermine the international effort to eradicate illicit tobacco trade.

Perceptions of Illicit Tobacco Sources Following a Proposed Reduction in Tobacco Availability: A Qualitative Analysis of New Zealanders Who Smoke.

Tobacco companies claim that substantially reducing tobacco retail outlets in Aotearoa New Zealand will increase illicit tobacco trade and crime. However, we know little about whether people who smoke anticipate using illicit tobacco once this measure is implemented. Exploring current illicit tobacco use and expected market development would clarify the likely scale of this potential problem. We undertook online in-depth interviews with 24 adults who smoke and explored their experiences of illicit tobacco, perceptions of illicit market growth once legal tobacco became less available, intentions to engage in this market, and potential measures that could curb illicit market development. We interpreted the data using a qualitative descriptive approach. Few participants had purchased illegally imported or stolen tobacco. While most did not know how to access illicit tobacco products, many expected illicit trade and crime would increase, if legal tobacco became difficult to access. While cheaper tobacco appealed to many, most perceived illicit supply routes as unsafe and saw products obtained via these sources as likely to be of poor quality. Few suggested measures to control illicit markets, though a minority called for social reforms to reduce poverty, which they thought fueled illegal practices. Although illicit trade may appear to threaten new policy initiatives, participants' limited knowledge of these markets and concerns regarding product safety suggest illegal tobacco may pose less of a threat than tobacco companies have claimed. Policy makers should not be deterred from reducing tobacco availability by industry arguments. Although participants believed illicit trade would increase if the number of tobacco retailers was substantially reduced, few anticipated purchasing illegal tobacco. They viewed supply routes as unsafe and product quality as likely to be low. Industry predictions that illicit tobacco trade will grow if tobacco becomes less available do not reflect how people who smoke expect to engage with these markets and should not deter the introduction of retail reduction measures.

Strengthening policies and structures to combat illicit tobacco trade in the Philippines.

The Philippines has been seeing an increase in illicit tobacco trade in recent years, undermining the impacts of legal measures such as tobacco products' taxation and regulation due to circumvention of established avenues and costing the government its revenue. Currently, the country has twelve policies related to the prevention of illicit tobacco trade with gaps identified in its lack of licensing systems for tobacco retailers and policies on law enforcement cooperation, which manifests in the country being fully compliant to only 5 of the 16 articles under the World Health Organization's Illicit Tobacco Trade Protocol. It is recommended that the country establish a national agency or framework specifically for illicit tobacco trade to address its gaps under Tracking and Tracing, Due Diligence, and Unlawful Conduct.

Estimating the Size of Illicit Tobacco Market in Lithuania: Results from the Discarded Pack Collection Method.

For decades in Lithuania, the threat of illicit trade has been used to weaken evidence-based tobacco-control policies and to undermine efforts to reduce smoking prevalence and its attributable burden, while also depriving the government of much-needed tax revenue. The aim of this study is to estimate the size of the illicit cigarette market in Lithuania using data from a nationally representative discarded pack collection. The study employed a two-stage cluster design by first randomly selecting 65 well-defined population settlements (30 cities and 35 townships), representing both urban and rural areas, in all 10 counties in Lithuania. Next, we randomly selected 358 polling districts within these settlements. Each polling district had one route along which discarded packs were collected between September 2019 and 2020. In total, 28.9% (95% CIs = 27.7 to 30.1) of discarded cigarette packs were classified as illicit. The vast majority (90.1%) of illicit packs originated from Belarus with most (86.9%) packs produced in the Grodno Tobacco Factory Neman. Tax stamps were present on 93.6% of legal packs and also on 76% of illegal packs. Data from this study suggest that the illicit cigarette trade in Lithuania is more widespread than indicated by other methods and primarily supplied by the neighboring Belarus state-owned tobacco factory in Grodno. This signals the need to adopt Belarus-specific border control and security measures. This study presents data from the first national industry-independent study on illicit tobacco trade in Lithuania using discarded cigarette pack collection method. As customs seizure data show, our results also indicate that the illicit cigarette market is primarily supplied by Belarus state-owned Grodno Tobacco Factory Neman known for filling Europe with cheap cigarettes. An estimate derived from this study is higher than both the industry-independent estimate obtained by the survey method and the estimates offered by the tobacco industry. This adds to the evidence that the difference in estimates obtained by different methods reflects the strengths and weaknesses of each. The study also demonstrates the impact of a rogue neighbor on the illicit market in an adjacent country and offers suggestions on how to address it.

Strengthening Policies and Structures to Combat Illicit Tobacco Trade in the Philippines

Strengthening Policies and Structures to Combat Illicit Tobacco Trade in the Philippines

THE GRAVITY OF TOBACCO SMUGGLING. PREDICTING BILATERAL ILLICIT CIGARETTE FLOWS FROM AGGREGATE DATA

nternational tobacco smuggling remains an important concern for governments, tobacco manufactur-ers and health experts alike. While often linked to other forms of illegal activities, it also directly impacts govern-ment tax and health policies. Knowledge of factors that contribute to illicit tobacco trade and the existence of smug-gling routes is strongly hampered by the lack of reliable data on bilateral flows of illicit tobacco. Therefore, recon-structing the trafficking routes and estimating the size of cross-border illicit flows are crucial steps for gaining bet-ter understanding of these crimes and enforcing actions aimed at countering them. This study is the first to use grav-ity estimation techniques to decompose aggregate illicit cig-arette inflows for which data are available into their bilat-eral components. Our approach is a simple and effective method that can serve as a complement to other methods of pinpointing international trafficking flows such as empty discarded pack data or network analysis to help in the fight against illicit tobacco flows. Policymakers, customs officials as well as law enforcement can employ the presented meth-ods as an additional tool in the fight against illicit trade. Keywords: bilateral illicit cigarette trade, gravity model, predictive estimation

Measuring Malaysia’s Illicit Tobacco Trade: An Excise Tax Gap Analysis

There is a lack of independent data regarding the illicit tobacco trade in Malaysia. Tobacco Industry (TI) commissioned data has previously been criticised for overestimating the illicit tobacco trade and for a lack of methodological transparency. The aim of this study is to present an independent overview of Malaysia’s illicit tobacco market by measuring the country’s factory-made cigarette excise tax gap. Using data sourced from Malaysian government publications we calculate the excise tax gap between 2011 and 2019 based on existing approaches whereby the excise tax actually paid is compared with that theoretically due based on estimates of total tobacco consumption. For sensitivity analysis, we established 4 different scenarios of tobacco consumption levels. Our central estimate is that the tax gap increased from 49% (2012) to 65% (2017), indicating that about two-thirds of cigarettes consumed were illicit, untaxed cigarettes. Increases in the tax gap occurred when taxes increased (e.g., 2014) and when they did not (e.g., 2017), and a slight decline was also evident when taxes were unchanged (e.g., 2012). The size of the tax gap was sensitive to the consumption estimates, where a 10% increase in consumption was generally associated with 3–5 percentage point increase in the tax gap. This study, to our knowledge, is the first independent estimate of Malaysia’s tax gap/rate of the illicit tobacco trade. We suggest the Malaysian government maintain its tax policies whilst strengthening its anti-illicit tobacco trade measures, including ratifying the Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products. <strong>Highlights</strong><ul><li>An independent view of the illicit tobacco trade in Malaysia by measuring the country’s tobacco excise tax gap.</li><li>Insights into the accuracy of TI estimates on Malaysia’s tobacco trade.</li><li>Suggestions for actions that should be taken by the Malaysian government to combat the illicit tobacco trade.</li><li>Government Survey data is used to measure consumption which isn’t available each year, so yearly consumption estimates are produced via linear interpolation between survey waves.</li><li>Consumption estimates cover those aged 15 or above.</li></ul>

How much to pay for a track and trace system: a simulation model for South Africa

BackgroundThe illicit trade in tobacco reduces the effectiveness of tobacco-control policies. Independent track and trace (T&T) systems are considered one of the most effective measures available to reduce the illicit...

Banning Tobacco Smoking in Public Places via Customized Tobacco Control Vaccine Framework: Experience From Tigray, Ethiopia.

Tobacco use remained the most preventable cause of premature morbidities and deaths. Despite notable decrement of tobacco use prevalence globally, the prospect of the low- and middle-income countries lies at crossroads due to government's complacence and increased influence of the tobacco industry. Tigray regional state in Ethiopia which received World Health Organization recognition in 2017 spearheaded the tobacco control endeavor using cost-effective and whole-government approach via customized tobacco control vaccine framework. The job required interrelated endeavors of law making, advocacy, and law enforcement, but all with an effective community engagement and ownership framework. It did not require re-inventing the wheel but synthesizing available evidence and exhibiting the potential to reverse the course; enlisting challenges alone do not bear fruit. Tigray's notable achievement and Ethiopia's promising results should be supported by rigorous law enforcement and accountability mechanisms. The evolving tobacco industry influence and illicit tobacco trade pose a serious concern.

Time for tobacco-free generations in the Western Pacific?

Time for tobacco-free generations in the Western Pacific?

Trend of Smuggled Cigarette Consumption in Tehran in the Last Two Decades.

Illicit tobacco trade is focused on Iran as a main target in the WHO's eastern Mediterranean region. Serial studies of Cigarette Packs Survey with same method were conducted in Tehran between 2003 and 2015 to evaluate consumed smuggled cigarettes. This study as the fourth Cigarette Packs Survey is designed to indicate the trends of illicit cigarette trade in Tehran in the last two decades. A cross-sectional household study was carried out in early 2021 in Tehran on 3042 persons who smoked at least one daily cigarette for a year. The sampling method was like the sampling method used in three previous studies. Participants aged≥15 years were asked to reveal their current cigarette pack, which was either legal cigarettes (having governmental label); or illegal cigarettes (without governmental label). The subjects included 2536 males (83.4%) and the mean age was 39.9±12.1 years; 1854 subjects (60.9%) showed foreign cigarettes and 1188 (39.1%) showed domestic cigarettes; 2705 (88.9%) consumed legal cigarettes and 337 (11.1%) consumed illegal cigarettes. Consumption of illegal cigarettes by gender showed greater use of smuggled cigarettes in males (11.7%vs 8.1%). No significant differences were seen based on the marital and educational status in terms of illegal cigarettes prevalence. Compare with previous studies, the trend of consumption of illicit cigarettes was decreasing in past two decades. This could be due to new regulation on monitoring cigarette distribution and changing illegal brands to legal as joint production.

Measuring anomalies in cigarette sales using official data from Spanish provinces: Are the anomalies detected by the Empty Pack Surveys (EPSs) used by Transnational Tobacco Companies (TTCs) the only anomalies?

INTRODUCTIONThere is a literature that questions the veracity of the studies commissioned by transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) to measure the illicit tobacco trade. Furthermore, there are studies that have indicated that the empty pack surveys (EPSs) ordered by TTCs overestimate the size of this trade. This study simultaneously analyzed whether the EPSs established in each of the 47 Spanish provinces were accurate and measured anomalies observed in provinces where sales exceed expected values.METHODSTo achieve the objectives of this study, provincial data on cigarette sales, prices and GDP per capita were used. These data were modeled with machine learning techniques that are widely used to detect anomalies in other areas.RESULTSThe magnitude of the average anomaly in provinces where sales are higher than their expected values exceeds 40%, while the average anomaly in provinces where sales are lower than their expected values (as detected by the EPSs) is <15%. Furthermore, the results reveal that there is a clear geographical pattern to the provinces in which sales below reasonable values are observed. In addition, the values provided by the EPSs in Spain, as indicated in the previous literature, are slightly overestimated. Finally, some regions bordering other countries or that are highly influenced by tourism have observed sales that are higher than their expected values.CONCLUSIONSCooperation between countries in their tobacco control policies can have better effects than policies developed based on information from a single country. The lack of control over the transactions of tourists and the inhabitants of bordering countries can cause important anomalies that distort the understanding of tobacco consumption that governments have based on official data.