Measuring anomalies in cigarette sales using official data from Spanish provinces: Are the anomalies detected by the Empty Pack Surveys (EPSs) used by Transnational Tobacco Companies (TTCs) the only anomalies?

Pedro Cadahia,Eva Asensio,Antonio Golpe,Juan Martín-Álvarez

doi:10.18332/tid/143321

Abstract

INTRODUCTIONThere is a literature that questions the veracity of the studies commissioned by transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) to measure the illicit tobacco trade. Furthermore, there are studies that have indicated that the empty pack surveys (EPSs) ordered by TTCs overestimate the size of this trade. This study simultaneously analyzed whether the EPSs established in each of the 47 Spanish provinces were accurate and measured anomalies observed in provinces where sales exceed expected values.METHODSTo achieve the objectives of this study, provincial data on cigarette sales, prices and GDP per capita were used. These data were modeled with machine learning techniques that are widely used to detect anomalies in other areas.RESULTSThe magnitude of the average anomaly in provinces where sales are higher than their expected values exceeds 40%, while the average anomaly in provinces where sales are lower than their expected values (as detected by the EPSs) is <15%. Furthermore, the results reveal that there is a clear geographical pattern to the provinces in which sales below reasonable values are observed. In addition, the values provided by the EPSs in Spain, as indicated in the previous literature, are slightly overestimated. Finally, some regions bordering other countries or that are highly influenced by tourism have observed sales that are higher than their expected values.CONCLUSIONSCooperation between countries in their tobacco control policies can have better effects than policies developed based on information from a single country. The lack of control over the transactions of tourists and the inhabitants of bordering countries can cause important anomalies that distort the understanding of tobacco consumption that governments have based on official data.

Highlights

There is a literature that questions the veracity of the studies commissioned by transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) to measure the illicit tobacco trade
Some theoretical and empirical works have questioned the Empty Pack Surveys (EPSs) because they are commissioned by transnational tobacco companies (TTCs), and their methodology and validity are not certain[1]
This context of the nonindependence of the empty pack surveys (EPSs) has generated a multitude of articles that have analyzed the relationship between what the TTCs show regarding the illicit tobacco trade (ITT) and the official data published by the government

Summary

Introduction

There is a literature that questions the veracity of the studies commissioned by transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) to measure the illicit tobacco trade. The EPSs consist, fundamentally, of collecting empty packages deposited on the ground or in city bins and checking what rate of them are not legal or domestic products This context of the nonindependence of the EPSs has generated a multitude of articles that have analyzed the relationship between what the TTCs show regarding the illicit tobacco trade (ITT) and the official data published by the government. Some studies have concluded that the reports made by TTCs require greater transparency, greater external scrutiny, and the use of independent data[2] Another issue criticized by some studies is the funding and dissemination of ITT research by TTCs through corporate social responsibility initiatives. The literature has concluded that if TTC data on the ITT cannot meet the standards of accuracy and transparency established by high-quality research publications, a solution may be to tax the TTCs and provide the resulting funds to experts independent of the tobacco industry, using previously developed reliable models to measure the ITT3,4

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Conclusion