Illicit Tobacco Trade Research Articles

Detection of cigarettes and other tobacco products by giant African pouched rats (Cricetomys gambianus)

If the illicit tobacco trade were eliminated, governments could gain at least $31.3 billion a year, and more than 164,000 premature deaths a year could be avoided after 2030 (Joossens, Merriman, Ross, and Raw, 2009). Dogs have been used successfully in tobacco control programs, and there is a good chance that rats could also play an important role. In the present experiment, giant African pouched rats were trained to respond to filters that had been stored together with cigarettes (i.e., soaked) and to not respond to filters that had been soaked with noncigarette items. Generalization to untrained types of tobacco was then tested. The sensitivity of 4 rats trained on filters soaked with 1 of 7 types of cigarettes ranged from 86% to 100% (mean, 95%). There was very little evidence of generalization when the rats were tested on tobacco leaves and snuff but good evidence of generalization when the rats were tested on cigarettes that had been soaked with strong-smelling additives. These findings suggest that rats may be a valuable asset in the global effort to control illicit cigarette trade.

Tobacco industry manipulation of data on and press coverage of the illicit tobacco trade in the UK

BackgroundIn the UK, transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) have been arguing that levels of illicit trade are high and increasing and will rise further if standardised packaging is implemented. This paper...

Empirical Measurement of Illicit Tobacco Trade in the Philippines

Cigarette smuggling reduces the price of cigarettes, thwarts youth access restrictions, reduces government revenue, and undercuts the ability of taxes to reduce consumption. The tobacco industry often opposes increases to tobacco taxes on the claim that greater taxes induce more smuggling. To date, little is known about the magnitude of smuggling in the Philippines. his information is necessary to effectively address illicit trade and to measure the impacts of tax changes and the introduction of secure tax markings on illicit trade. This study employs two gap discrepancy methods to estimate the magnitude of illicit trade in cigarettes for the Philippines between 1994 and 2009. First, domestic consumption is compared with tax-paid sales to measure the consumption of illicit cigarettes. Second, imports recorded by the Philippines are compared with exports to the Philippines by trade partners to measure smuggling. Domestic consumption fell short of tax-paid sales for all survey years. The magnitude of these differences and a comparison with a prevalence survey for 2009 suggest a high level of survey under-reporting of smoking. In the late 1990s and the mid 2000s, the Philippines experienced two sharp declines in trade discrepancies, from a high of $750 million in 1995 to a low of $133.7 million in 2008. Discrepancies composed more than one-third of the domestic market in 1995, but only 10 percent in 2009. Hong Kong, Singapore, and China together account for more than 80 percent of the cumulative discrepancies over the period and 74 percent of the discrepancy in 2009. The presence of large discrepancies supports the need to implement an effective tax marking and tobacco track and trace system to reduce illicit trade and support tax collection. The absence of a relation between tax changes and smuggling suggests that potential increases in the excise tax should not be discouraged by illicit trade. Finally, the identification of specific trade partners as primary sources for illicit trade may facilitate targeted efforts in cooperation with these governments to reduce illicit trade.

Towards a greater understanding of the illicit tobacco trade in Europe: a review of the PMI funded ‘Project Star’ report

BackgroundFollowing a legal agreement with the European Union (EU), Philip Morris International (PMI) commissions a yearly report (‘Project Star’, PS) on the European illicit cigarette trade from KPMG, the global...

Assessing the accuracy of tobacco Industry data on the illicit tobacco trade

Assessing the accuracy of tobacco Industry data on the illicit tobacco trade

Reducing the Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products in the ASEAN Region: A Review of the Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products

In November 2012, the fifth session of the Conference of Parties (COP) to the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) adopted the Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco. This paper examines the Protocol in the context of the illicit trade in tobacco products across South East Asia and highlights those areas of the Protocol which can be effective in reducing that illicit trade, and how the region could approach a coordinated implementation of those key provisions. Details of the current extent of illicit trade in the region, and of the main modus operandi of those active in that trade, are provided by the World Customs Organization’s (WCO) Regional Intelligence Liaison Office for Asia and the Pacific (RILO AP). This sets the context from which the key elements of the Protocol are analysed for their potential value as mechanisms to directly address regional risks. The paper then examines the question of implementation and discusses those Articles of the Protocol which will require a degree of regional coordination to be fully effective. This regional examination also includes the need for some degree of standardised or consistent approach to implementation of the key Articles to eliminate ‘weak points’ in the regional supply chains for tobacco.

The transnational tobacco companies’ strategy to promote Codentify, their inadequate tracking and tracing standard

In 2011 INTERPOL, the world's largest police organisation, accepted a donation from Philip Morris International (PMI) of €15 million,1 ,2 an 8% increase to its total annual budget (€60 million...

Illicit cigarettes and hand-rolled tobacco in 18 European countries: a cross-sectional survey

ObjectiveLittle evidence, other than that commissioned by the tobacco industry, exists on the size of the illicit tobacco trade. This study addresses this gap by examining the level and nature...

The Linkage Between Tax Burden and Illicit Trade of Excisable Products: The Example of Tobacco

Illicit trade in tobacco is now a global phenomenon. Experience across both advanced and developing economies demonstrates that the key economic drivers influencing the illicit tobacco trade are excessive tax levels, usually resulting in a sharp decline in cigarette affordability, and organised crime’s willingness to supply given the opportunity to gain large profits from tax avoidance. However, when cigarette affordability is taken into account, excise levels and revenues can be increased while consumption is reduced and the illicit trade is kept in check. The clear implication is that recommendations for a ‘one size fits all’ global excise tax incidence target of 70%, as proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO), would be very destabilising if implemented. Excise incidence is flawed as the basis for setting tax policy, as the WHO has acknowledged in its own country research. International experience, including that of the European Union (EU) accession countries, clearly shows that countries which have implemented the sort of substantial tax increases that the WHO’s proposals would imply have seen a sharp rise in illicit trade in cigarettes, damaging the long-term tax base and undermining public health objectives.

Illicit tobacco trade between the United States and Mexico.

To provide a brief history of the illicit tobacco trade between Mexico and the United States. Research included a previously published study: "Cigarette taxes and smuggling: A statistical analysis and historical review", published by the Mackinac Center for Public Policy; US Customs and Border Protection data; various US court documents; General Accountability Office reporting; media reports; other historical material, and a personal interview. The research revealed that there is no credible evidence of organized criminal activity related to the illicit trade in tobacco products from Mexico into the United States. However, there is clear and convincing evidence of organized criminal activity in smuggling tobacco products from the United States into Mexico for at least 167 years. Historical records from 1845 into the 21st century clearly demonstrate that the United States was usually the source country for tobacco products moving illegally between the two countries.

From cigarette smuggling to illicit tobacco trade

BackgroundTax policy is considered the most effective strategy to reduce tobacco consumption and prevalence. Tax avoidance and tax evasion therefore undermine the effectiveness of tax policies and result in less...

Opportunities and risks of the proposed FCTC protocol on illicit trade

Illicit trade in tobacco products presents a threat to public health because it undermines the use of tax and price policies, which are among the most effective mechanisms for reducing...

The (UN-) Systematic Nature of the UN Criminal Justice System: The (NON) Relationship Between the Draft Illicit Tobacco Trade Protocol and the UN Convention Against Transnational Organised Crime

The illicit trade in tobacco, a transnational trade directed at the evasion of taxes on tobacco products, and a trade which commonly involves organised crime, has recently become the subject of international attention. At its second session, the Conference of the Parties to the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) decided to establish an Intergovernmental Negotiating Body (INB) to draft and negotiate a protocol on the illicit trade in tobacco products. The aim was to build

The Challenges of Tobacco Control in Croatia

The challenges of tobacco control in Croatia are affected by the country’s high unemployment rate, comparatively low levels of cigarette taxation and the issue of cigarette smuggling. Tobacco control legislation has gained prominence in Croatia due to the high rate of smoking and the European Union’s accession requirements for tobacco control legislation. About one–third of the adults in Croatia smoke putting the country of 4.5 million people roughly on par with the heaviest-smoking EU member states (McDonald, N. USA 1st Edition Financial Times April 17,2007). While the appropriate legislation on tobacco advertising, distribution, health warnings and ingredients are in place, Croatia lags behind other European areas in using a taxing strategy to combat smoking. Raising taxes on tobacco products is considered a highly effective component of a comprehensive tobacco control strategy. The effectiveness of a tax policy is undermined to the extent that there are smuggled or counterfeit tobacco products on the market. Although the percentage of smuggled cigarettes is an elusive number, the illicit tobacco trade is no stranger to Croatia. Cigarettes are widely available on the black market. Finally, in an economy with a 14% unemployment rate (Ministry of Economy, Labor, and Entrepreneurship accessed at www.mingorp.hr on 3/19/09), the public health sector is at odds with the sector that places an emphasis on the contribution of the tobacco industry to tax revenues and the livelihood of people who make their living growing or selling tobacco. While Croatia has made good progress in adopting legislation, it needs to strengthen its efforts both in terms of enforcement and increased taxation of cigarettes. Int Adv Econ Res (2009) 15:494 DOI 10.1007/s11294-009-9226-7

Progress in combating cigarette smuggling: controlling the supply chain

Background:The illicit tobacco trade results in huge losses of revenue to governments, estimated at $US40–50 billion in 2006, and in increased consumption and thus health problems because it makes tobacco...

British American Tobacco and the “insidious impact of illicit trade” in cigarettes across Africa

Objectives:To provide an overview of the complicity of British American Tobacco (BAT) in the illicit trade of cigarettes across the African continent in terms of rationale, supply routes and scale.Methods:Analysis...

Crossing geographical, legal and moral boundaries: the Belgian cigarette black market

Objectives:To describe and analyse the cigarette smuggling trade in Belgium and its role in the international cigarette black market.Design:Analysis of Belgian customs and prosecution files concerning the cigarette smuggling trade...