Ideal Family Size Research Articles

Using discrete choice modeling to understand the drivers of reproductive delay in the United Kingdom

The ideal family size in the UK is, on average, two children. However, there is a fertility gap, the difference between wanted and achieved family size, of around one in three children, which is largely caused by extended delays to reproduction. Standard quantitative methods used to identify what causes these delays have limitations, often relying on macro-level data which conveys little about individual needs, or applying longitudinal methods that produce outdated results because only once people have completed their reproductive years is it possible to infer which life-course factors led to later-age childbearing. This study is the first to overcome these challenges by applying a discrete choice experiment to reveal the barriers that people are facing right now. This innovative methodology allows the estimation of the relative importance of the barriers and the distance between them measured in months of reproductive delay. Among other things, the results show that for men and women, partner support was more important than finances or housing, although support means different things depending on the level of education with more educated women prioritizing hands-on fathers and household gender equality, whereas less-educated women strongly desired stable partnerships. Men favored partner readiness and neighborhood quality. These, and the other findings shown here, provide detailed insight into the contemporary causes of delayed fertility in the UK.

Forecasting Africa’s fertility decline by female education groups

While female education has long been recognized as a key driver of fertility decline during the process of demographic transition and most population projection models consider it implicitly or explicitly in their forecasts of overall fertility, there still is need for a method to forecast education-specific fertility trends directly. Here we propose a method for projecting education-specific fertility declines for cohorts of women in Sub-Saharan Africa based on all available demographic and health surveys data for African countries (including 1.03Mio cases). We study at different levels of aggregation (sample clusters, strata, and national) the associations between ideal family size and completed cohort fertility for education groups, on the one hand, and the average level of education in those units, on the other. The consistently very strong empirical associations suggest a plausible narrative by which a higher prevalence of educated women in a spatial unit influences the fertility levels of women in all specific education categories. Empirical associations between education-specific cohort fertility trends at the national level and newly available quality-adjusted human capital data for these cohorts are then operationalized to produce education-specific population projections as they are needed for-among other uses-the shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios that are widely used in the climate change research community. Sensitivity analyses including out-of-sample projections support the validity of the proposed method which is then applied to 37 African countries.

Intergenerational transmission of fertility: evidence from China's population control policies

Abstract This paper examines how the number of siblings that parents have affects their fertility decisions in China. The population control policies in China affected individuals unequally across birth cohorts and regions. The exogenous variation in fertility is used to identify the effect of the number of siblings on the number of children for the next generation. The results show that a couple tends to have 0.034–0.068 more children (2.3–4.6% of the average number of children) and is 2.4–6.8 percentage points more likely to violate the One-Child Policy (9.3–27.1% of the violation rate) if the husband and the wife have one more sibling each. Moreover, the effect on fertility is stronger for couples in lower-income provinces where the fertility rate is higher and in rural areas where the One-Child Policy was enforced less strictly. Finally, I show that the ideal family size of the husband and wife is an important channel through which the number of siblings affects fertility. I also find that the effect of people's number of siblings has a larger effect on their ideal number of children than on their actual number of children, suggesting that they are constrained from achieving their fertility ideals.

Ideal Family Size and Reproductive Orientations: An Exploration of Change Over Time in the United States

Drawing on more than 30 years of nationally representative microdata from the General Social Survey, this article comprehensively updates recent trends in ideal family size in the United States. It first documents stability in ideal family sizes between the mid-1980s and 2018, even in the face of a recent fertility decline. Next, the study adopts a latent class approach that identifies typologies of “reproductive orientations,” defined as multidimensional mental models of reproduction encompassing ideal family size, attitudes toward reproductive labor, and views on reproduction contexts. The findings indicate three distinct classes of reproductive orientations: Progressive Familialists, Conservative Familialists, and Blended Egalitarians. Further analyses suggest that the prevalence of these classes has changed over time and that class membership is associated with distinct patterns of childbearing and marriage. These findings deepen contemporary understandings of ideal family size in the United States and have broader implications for how demographers conceptualize and measure fertility preferences across diverse contexts.

Spatial distribution and factors associated with high completed fertility among women aged 40–49 years in Ghana: evidence from the 2022 Ghana Demographic Health Survey

BackgroundHigh completed fertility among married and cohabiting women has profound consequences, including straining resources, increasing healthcare challenges, and contributing to educational and gender inequalities. This study examined the factors associated with high completed fertility among married and cohabiting women aged 40–49 years in Ghana.MethodsData for the study was sourced from the 2022 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey (GDHS). A spatial map was used to present the women's geographic variations in high completed fertility. A mixed-effect multilevel binary logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the factors associated with high completed fertility. The findings were presented as adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI).ResultsThe national proportion of high completed fertility among married and cohabiting women aged 40–49 years in Ghana was 52.0% [48.8, 55.2]. Women who were Ga/Dangme/Ewe by tribe [aOR = 2.32, 95% CI = 1.06, 5.08] had higher odds of high completed fertility than Akans. Women who indicated 6 + as their ideal number of children had a higher [aOR = 5.60, 95% CI = 2.90, 10.82] likelihood of high completed fertility compared to those whose ideal number of children was 0–3. Those who were using contraceptives at the time of the survey had a higher [aOR = 2.31, 95% CI = 1.17, 4.55] likelihood of high completed fertility compared to those who were not using contraceptives. Women with secondary/higher education [aOR = 0.32, 95% CI = 0.17, 0.58] had lower odds of high completed fertility than those without no formal education. Women with females as household heads [aOR = 0.56, 95% CI = 0.33, 0.95] had lower odds of high completed fertility than males. Women in Volta, Western North, Ahafo, and Bono regions had lower odds of high completed fertility compared to those living in the Northeast region, with the lowest odds among those living in the Volta region [aOR = 0.08, 95% CI = 0.02, 0.40].ConclusionHigh completed fertility is prevalent in Ghana, with more than half of married and cohabiting women having at least five or more children. The government and policymakers in Ghana should promote education for women, increase culturally sensitive family planning programs, increase access to family planning resources, address ideal family size preferences, and improve understanding of contraceptive use.

Ideals and realities: Chinese singleton daughters negotiating family size preferences and migrant motherhood in Spain

ABSTRACT Chinese young women’s fertility choices have attracted growing interest in the last years, however, the effects of women’s singleton status and transnational motherhood experience on their fertility behaviours remain understudied. Using 12 qualitative interviews with Chinese migrant mothers in Spain, we firstly examine how women’s family size preferences are constructed by their singleton status associated with changing gender norms and strong normative expectations of future family caregiving obligations; secondly, we explore the challenges faced by participants towards realizing their fertility expectations in transnational spaces from a gendered perspective. We find that although singleton status can contribute to women’s larger ideal family size, their gendered roles as only-daughters and migrant mothers increase care responsibilities, which negatively influence their childbearing decisions. By situating singleton daughters’ experiences within a broader institutional and sociocultural context, our study offers a unique opportunity to examine how changing gender norms, care, and responsibility structure fertility norms of one generation at the micro level.

The dynamics of Long-Acting Reversible Contraception (LARC) choices in rural Jambi: Socio-economic perspectives

High population growth without concurrent improvements in human quality poses significant challenges in promoting equitable welfare across various life aspects. Thus, population control is crucial for achieving sustainable development goals. This study emphasizes the role of Long-Acting Reversible Contraception (LARC) in managing fertility rates and investigates three main components of population growth: fertility, mortality, and migration. The objectives are threefold: 1) Analyze the profile of fertile-age couples using LARC in rural Jambi; 2) Investigate the socio-economic factors influencing the choice between LARC and non-LARC methods among these couples; 3) Explore the relationship between the couples' characteristics and their choice of LARC. Data were collected from a survey of 200 fertile-age couples participating in a family planning program across four villages in Jambi. The analysis utilized descriptive statistics, binary logistic regression, and multinomial logistic regression. Findings indicate that LARC usage among fertile-age couples in rural Jambi is low, at approximately 28% of total contraceptive users, with implants being the most common LARC type. In contrast, non-LARC methods are more prevalent, accounting for 72% of usage, dominated by three-month injectables, followed by pills and male condoms. Significant factors influencing the choice between LARC and non-LARC include the husband's education, the woman's employment status, the number of living children, the disparity between actual and ideal family size, desire for more children, knowledge about contraceptive options, and family income. Furthermore, characteristics significantly related to the choice of LARC methods such as tubal ligation, implants, and IUDs include the woman's age, number of living children, the gap between the ideal and actual number of children, desire for more children, woman's employment status, knowledge about contraceptive devices, and family income.

State-Level Immigrant Policies and Ideal Family Size in the United States.

Demographers have long been interested in how fertility ideals vary in response to perceived existential threats. Although migration scholars document the increasingly threatening nature of U.S. immigration policies, little research explores how these policies shape the fertility ideals of those most affected by them. To that end, we exploit spatiotemporal variation in states' evolving immigrant policy contexts to understand the effects of different policies on the ideal family size of Hispanics-a group who is most likely to be stereotyped as undocumented and most likely to live in mixed-status households or communities. Specifically, we combine time-varying information on state-level immigrant policies with georeferenced data from the General Social Survey (GSS). Results suggest that the gap in ideal family size between Hispanic and white respondents is significantly larger in state-years with omnibus policies-which bundle multiple restrictive laws together and thus impose sweeping restrictions- compared to state-years without these policies. On the other hand, sanctuary policies, which aim to curb federal immigration enforcement, and E-verify mandates, which aim to curb the employment of undocumented immigrants, are not associated with significant differences. Our analyses provide new insights into the complex ways in which the evolving U.S. immigrant policy landscape has far-reaching impacts on reproductive and family life.

Child Fostering and Family Size Preferences in Uganda.

Mothers who exceed their ideal family size (IFS) may find themselves caring for more children than desired. In the absence of reliable and desirable prenatal controls of family size, mothers may foster-out children to reduce burdens of childrearing, particularly in contexts where fostering is common. Using six rounds of Demographic and Health Surveys collected in Uganda between 1988 and 2016, I explore the relationship between exceeding IFS and child out-fostering, proposing that fostering-out may serve to manage excess fertility and that this relationship may change as actual and desired fertility declines. Models are run separately for mothers and children aged 0-17 to explore mothers' overall out-fostering behavior versus out-fostering strategies for children. Results at the mother level suggest a strong positive relationship between exceeding IFS and out-fostering that remains relatively stable over time, but results at the child level indicate children's age explains the relationship between mothers' exceeding IFS and being fostered-out, demonstrating the nuances of how family size preferences might impact family life in practice. Though mothers report a desire for smaller families over time, childbearing and childrearing behaviors, including high fertility and child out-fostering, remain consistent over the course of Uganda's fertility transition, signifying the central role out-fostering plays in Ugandan families.

Effective Factors in the Number of Children Among Iranian Women: An Application of Poisson Regression Model

Background: The number of children born into a family has a significant impact on a mother’s reproductive system’s physiological health and overall well-being. Objectives: This study aimed to explore the effective factors in the number of living children (NLC) among married women in Semnan, Iran, with a particular focus on social, cultural, and economic influences. Methods: This cross-sectional study examined the reproductive histories of 600 married women aged 15 to 49 years from Semnan, Iran. Sample size calculations were based on the principal variable, the expected number of children, using PASS software. The women were selected through a multistage random sampling method from health center lists in 2018 (April-October). The data were collected through interview questionnaires and analyzed using the Quasi-Poisson model. Results: The mean (standard deviation [SD]) age at first marriage for mothers (MAM) and fathers was estimated to be 21.02 (4.80) and 25.10 (4.70) years, respectively. Additionally, the mean (SD) values for the number of expected children (NCEX), living children, and the number of pregnancies were 2.19 (0.96), 1.85 (0.81), and 2.15 (1.03), respectively. Among the variables of interest, only NCEX, the number of pregnancies (with a positive effect), MAM, father’s education, multiple births, and the desire to have children (with a negative effect) significantly influenced NLC. Conclusions: This study recommends implementing an educational program to promote an optimal and ideal family size to prevent adverse pregnancy outcomes. The age of women at marriage is a significant factor, as an increase in women’s age leads to shorter pregnancy intervals, exposing women to complications, such as premature birth, perinatal death, and intrauterine growth restriction. Policymakers should, therefore, encourage early marriages by fostering a culture and providing supportive facilities.

The shift in ideal family size: Examining the impact of marriage and parenthood

Motivated by role theory and the concept of the “self-fulfilling prophecy”, this study examines how entries into marriage and parenthood affect the fertility ideals of men and women in China. To address this question, we apply propensity score matching estimators to data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) within a counterfactual framework. We find that marriage and parenthood have a positive effect on fertility ideals, and this result remains robust when we apply difference-in-differences matching estimates. In terms of gender asymmetry in marriage, men and women respond differently to marriage and parenthood. Entry into marriage has a positive effect on men's fertility ideals, while parenthood influences women's ideals. Beyond the average treatment effect, we further examine heterogeneous treatment effects as a function of estimated propensity scores. The study reveals that the life transition treatment effect is the highest among those with a moderate propensity for entering into marriage and parenthood.

Analysis of Couples’ Discordance on Fertility Desire in Ghana

Generally, men in sub-Saharan Africa make reproductive decisions that affect their partners. We examined the predictors of fertility desires among married men across three age cohorts: 20–35 years, 36–50 year, and 51–59 years. Using the 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey dataset, we conducted ANOVA and multivariate binary logistic regressions on 1431 monogamous married men aged 20–59 years. Two indicators of fertility desire are constructed: (i) the comparison of men’s ideal versus women’s ideal family size, and (ii) the desire for more children. The results indicate that the fertility desire of men is stronger than that of women. The predictors of fertility desire are age, parity, religion, contraceptive use, wealth quintile, couples’ age difference and couples’ difference in education. At ages 20–35 years, men using modern contraceptives were more likely to desire more children compared with those not using any modern contraceptives. However, at ages 36–50 years, men using modern contraceptives were less likely to desire more children. This finding suggests that men change their fertility desires in response to changes in their ages.

Religion or language? How family socialisation shapes the influence of parental origin-country fertility norms on the ideal family size among children of immigrants in France

ABSTRACT How do immigrant parents transmit their origin-country fertility ideals to their children? Drawing on a national sample of immigrants and their children in France (the ‘Trajectories et Origins’ survey), this study argues that the two main aspects of cultural practices in migrant families, religion and language, influence the fertility socialisation of immigrant children in different ways. Religion, often regulating family life and sexuality, directly shapes the ideal family size of immigrant children. Among children of immigrants, those growing up in Muslim families and those in highly religious families desire more children. By contrast, the use of parental origin-country language does not directly affect ideal family size but instead moderates country-of-origin influence. Those who (solely or partly) spoke their parental origin-country language at home during childhood conform more closely to parental origin-country fertility ideals than those who grew up speaking French. These findings highlight that religion and language play different roles in fertility socialisation in migrant families.

How genuine are sub-replacement ideal family sizes in urban China?

Ideal family sizes remain at or above two in most low-fertility settings, but sub-replacement fertility ideals have been reported for urban China. The presence of restrictive family planning policies has led to a debate as to whether such ideals are genuine. This study exploits the ending of the one-child policy and the beginning of a universal two-child policy in October 2015 to investigate whether relaxing the restrictions led to an increase in ideal family size. We apply difference-in-differences and individual-level fixed-effect models to longitudinal data from a near-nationwide survey. For married individuals aged 20–39, relaxing the restrictions from one to two children increased the mean ideal family size by around 0.2 and the proportion who desired two or more children by around 19 percentage points. Findings suggest that although reported ideal family sizes have been reduced by policy restrictions, sub-replacement ideal family sizes in urban China appear to be genuine.

Ideal family size decision and its associated factors among women of reproductive age: community survey in southern Ethiopia.

Understanding fertility preferences is important for population studies and planning programs. The ideal family size, which is the number of children wanted in one's lifetime, is one of variables used to measure fertility preferences. However, there was limited information on ideal family size decision in Southern Ethiopia. Therefore, this study was designed to assess ideal family size decision and its associated factors among women of reproductive age in Southern Ethiopia. A community based cross-sectional study was conducted in 2015 in Southern Ethiopia. Multi-stage stratified cluster sampling was used to select 3,205 study subjects. Data on socio-demographic characteristics, reproductive history, deciding ideal number of children, knowledge and utilization of contraceptives were considered. Descriptive statistics and binary logistic regression were done to describe and assess factors associated with deciding ideal family size. The association between variables was presented using odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals. We included 3,205 women of reproductive age from which 37.5% respondents could not read and write and 56.5% were housewives. About half of the respondents, 47.1%, did not decide ideal numeric family size or failed to report numeric preferences while 21.6% desire to have five or more children. The mean ideal number of children preferred was 4.5 ± 1.62. Educational status (P < 0.001), overall knowledge about contraceptives (P < 0.001), current contraceptive use (P < 0.001), place of residence (P < 0.001), age (P < 0.004), marital status (P < 0.003) and number of living children (P < 0.003) were factors associated with deciding ideal family size. Only about half of respondents decided ideal family size from which one fifth prefer high fertility. The mean ideal number of children was comparable with that of Sub-Saharan estimate. Counselling that can empower women to decide family size should be strengthened to empower less empowered women.

Fertility preferences in China in the twenty-first century

There is continuing debate on how low China’s fertility has reached and whether China has fallen into the “low fertility trap”. This paper addresses this debate by revisiting the trends in fertility preferences in the past decades in China based on a meta review. Moreover, the analysis contrasts distinct measurements of fertility preferences to capture different aspects of reproductive decision-making. This papers reviews 152 studies resulting in 137 estimates for the mean of preferred number of children, 104 estimates for the proportions of different numbers of children preferred and 66 estimates for the second-child preferences. We found that after the long-time decline of fertility preferences in the last century, the average family size remained at a low level but started to increase slowly since 2001. This upturn was observed for all three types of measurements of fertility preferences: ideal, desired, and planned family size. The results also indicate a strong two-child preference (more than 50% of respondents) in China, although 30% of people prefer one child and only a small fraction indicating an ideal family size for three or more children. Results on people’s preference for a second child were less consistent. We concluded that fertility is unlikely to increase rapidly in China even when the government adopts more relaxed family planning policy. Because the upward trend in fertility preferences was very minimal and the economic constraints will prevent many people to realise their preferences.

A brief report on the COVID‐19 pandemic and ideal family size in the United States

AbstractObjectiveThis brief report explores whether the COVID‐19 Pandemic impacted ideal family size in the United States.BackgroundAlthough COVID‐19 negatively impacted short‐term fertility expectations, preferences, and behaviors in the United States, it remains unknown whether the pandemic contributed to changes in family size ideals more broadly.MethodThe sample consists of 1823 respondents from the General Social Survey (GSS) who were originally interviewed before the COVID‐19 pandemic (in 2016 and 2018) and were re‐interviewed in the first 6 months of the COVID‐19 pandemic (in August/September 2020), a period when pandemic‐related stress and uncertainty was particularly pronounced. A within‐person fixed effects approach is utilized.ResultsFindings from within‐person fixed effects analyses suggested that the pandemic had no impact on the quantum of ideal family size responses. These findings were robust to alternative specifications and were similar to what was observed in a parallel analysis of how the Great Recession impacted ideal family size.ConclusionFindings pointed to stability in ideal family size in the first 6 months of the COVID‐19 pandemic in the US.ImplicationsFuture work should explore the disjuncture between short‐term fertility intentions and behaviors and longer‐term family size ideals.

Religious Affiliation and Childbearing Preferences of Iranian Women.

Religious differences in fertility are one of the essential issues in health and demographic research in Western societies. However, they have received less attention in Muslim countries. This study aims to investigate Shiite and Sunni religious groups' childbirth preferences in Iranian society. It also seeks to analyze their differences based on socioeconomic and demographic factors. We used data from 1020 married women aged 18-44 surveyedas part of Iran's National Family Survey in 2018. The study was designed quantitatively with a cross-sectional approach, and samples were selected using multi-stage cluster sampling. SPSS26 was used to run logisticsandPoisson regression models. The results revealed that the means (± SD) of ideal family sizes for Shiite and Sunni women were 2.6 (± 1.0) and 3.4 (± 1.3) children, respectively. Sunni women (49%) had a higher intention to have a (or another) child than Shiite women (35%). According to the multivariate analysis findings, religion alone significantly affected the ideal family size, even when other socioeconomic and demographic variables were controlled. However, it had no significant effect on the intention to have a (or another) child within the next three years. Therefore, it is possible to conclude that within the specific social structure and cultural context of Iran, religion has explanatory power regarding childbearing beliefs and values. Furthermore, regarding fertility intentions and behaviors, demographic and socioeconomic factors become more important than religion.

Is the mortality–fertility nexus gendered? A research note on sex differences in the impact of sibling mortality on fertility preferences

Research guided by demographic transition theory has shown that exposure to mortality influences women’s fertility preferences and behaviours. Despite the myriad contexts, methodological approaches, and linkages featured in past studies, they have shared a focus on women, leaving questions on the gendered salience of mortality exposures for adults’ fertility-related outcomes unanswered. In this research note, we analyse data from three African countries with distinct fertility profiles (Nigeria, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) to examine associations between sibling mortality exposure and ideal family size among women, men, and couples. We also investigate the stability of these associations over time. The associations between adults’ sibling mortality exposure and their own and their spouses’ ideal family sizes vary across countries. However, the gendered nature of the results in every country and evidence of cross-spousal effects uniformly demonstrate the need to incorporate sex differences into the study of the mortality–fertility link.

What are the Obstacles in Achieving Ideal Family Size in Reproductive Age Couples?

The world situation with full of demands and limitations during the current pandemic can bring negative impacts on family. Family face burdens of daily needs for family life’s. Regarding to this condition, the ideal family size which is couple who has no more than two children, is an entity that needs to be considered to ensure the survivability of family. This study aimed to determine factors that related and predict the ideal family size for reproductive age couples in East Java. This study was quantitative study with cross-sectional approach. Data used in this study was secondary data from the Family Data Collection in 2021. Sampling technique was saturation sampling on reproductive age couples in 38 cities and regencies of East Java. Dependent variable was ideal family size. Independent variable was ideal age of marriage, participation in modern contraception, preferences for the ideal number of children, exposure to electronic media information, exposure to social media information, exposure to printed media information, and exposure to mass media information. Data analysis used multiple linear regression test. The study result stated variables that were related and had contribution in predicting ideal family size in reproductive age couples were ideal marriage age (p=0.001), participation in modern contraception (p=0.001), preference for ideal number of children (p=0.001), exposure to electronic media information (p=0.018), and exposure to mass media information (p=0.009). Based on these results, it is hoped that several intervention programs can be arranged by related institutions, targeted in the field that are in accordance with the study results.