Ideal Family Size Research Articles

A SART data cost-effectiveness analysis of planned oocyte cryopreservation versus in vitro fertilization with preimplantation genetic testing for aneuploidy considering ideal family size

To determine the cost-effectiveness of planned oocyte cryopreservation (OC) as a strategy for delayed childbearing to achieve 1 or 2 live births (LB) compared with invitro fertilization (IVF) and preimplantation genetic testing for aneuploidy (PGT-A) at advanced reproductive age. Decision tree model with sensitivity analyses using data from the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology Clinical Outcome Reporting System and other clinical sources. Not applicable. A data-driven simulated cohort of patients desiring delayed childbearing with an ideal family size of 1 or 2 LB. Not applicable. Probability of achieving ≥1 or 2 LB, average and maximum cost per patient, cost per percentage point increase in chance of LB, and population-level cost/LB. For those desiring 1 LB, planned OC at age 33 with warming at age 43 decreased the average total cost per patient from $62,308 to $30,333 and increased the likelihood of LB from 50% to 73% when compared with no OC with up to 3 cycles of IVF/PGT-A at age 43. For those desiring 2 LB, 2 cycles of OC at age 33 and warming at age 40 yielded the lowest cost per patient and highest likelihood of achieving 2 LB ($51,250 and 77%, respectively) when compared withpursuing only 1 cycle of OC ($75,373 and 61%, respectively), no OC and IVF/PGT-A with embryo banking ($79,728 and 48%, respectively), or no OC and IVF/PGT-A without embryo banking ($79,057 and 19%, respectively). Sensitivity analyses showed that OC remained cost-effective across a wide range of ages at cryopreservation. For 1 LB, OC achieved the highest likelihood of success when pursued before age 32 and remained more effective than IVF/PGT-A when pursued before age 39, and for 2 LB, 2 cycles of OC achieved the highest likelihood of success when pursued before age 31 and remained more effective than IVF/PGT-A when pursued before age39. Among patients planning to postpone childbearing, OC is cost-effective and increases the odds of achieving 1 or 2 LB when compared with IVF/PGT-A at a more advanced reproductive age.

Family size preferences among women in a union in Nigeria and associated factors

Nigeria’s population is currently estimated at 216million and the country will be the third most populous in the world in 2050. A major driver of the high population growth is persistent high fertility. This study examined women’s fertility preferences, which was measured with ideal family size (IFS) and the associated factors. Data were obtained from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. The analysis consisted of a weighted sample of 13, 673 women in union, aged 15–49 years whose first marriage took place within 10 years before the survey. Descriptive and multinomial logistic regression analyses were conducted. The proportion of respondents whose IFS was 5+ was 65%. Slightly above one-quarter had IFS of four children, and 11% had IFS of 0 – 3. IFS of 5+ was significantly associated with women resident in the Northern and Southeast regions, rural residents, Muslims, women who had no education, women working in agriculture, sales/service jobs, those who participated in one or two out of four household decisions, justified wife beating, have 5+ siblings, experienced child death, and married before age 20. Efforts to achieve the target reduction in total fertility rate in Nigeria should be multi-sectoral targeting these subpopulations of women.

Women's contraceptive profiles in Burundi: Knowledge, attitudes, and interactions with media and health services.

Reproductive health program managers seek information about existing and potential clients’ motivations, behaviors, and barriers to services. Using sequence and cluster analysis of contraceptive calendar data from the 2016–17 Burundi Demographic and Health Survey, we identified discrete clusters characterizing patterns in women’s contraceptive and pregnancy behaviors over the previous 5 years. This study pairs these clusters with data on factors typically targeted in social behavior change interventions: knowledge, attitudes, and women’s interactions with media and health services, to create composite profiles of women in these clusters. Of six clusters, three are characterized by contraceptive use and three are characterized by its absence. Media exposure and attitudes regarding sex preference, wife beating, and self-efficacy largely do not explain cluster membership. Contraceptive knowledge is positively associated with two clusters (Family Builder 1 and Traditional Mother) and negatively associated with a third (Quiet Calendar). Clusters also differ in their members’ fertility desires, contraceptive intentions, and interactions with health services. Two “Family Builder” clusters are both characterized by the presence (but not timing) of multiple pregnancies in their calendar histories, but differ in that women with high contraceptive knowledge, intentions to use contraception, and well-articulated family size ideals are characteristic of one cluster (Family Builder 1), and low contraceptive knowledge, no use of contraception, and vague family size preferences are characteristic of the other (Family Builder 2). These results can guide reproductive health programs as they target social and behavioral change and other interventions to the unique subpopulations they seek to serve.

Climate Change Concerns and the Ideal Number of Children: A Comparative Analysis of the V4 Countries

The Visegrád countries (Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovakia) faced a sharp decline in fertility rates after the regime change in 1989. Since then, total fertility rates have largely remained below the EU average, although they have increased during the past decade. Family policies (support for the parental caregivingmodel) and the conditions of women’s employment might be shaping these trends. Besides the pronatalist rhetoric, there is another reason why people might alter their fertility plans: climate change‐related worries. Our analysis in this article examines whether such concerns exist in these four countries, pointing out that the efficacy of pronatalist measures depends on the widespread adoption of such attitudes among young people of childbearing age. Pronatalist pressure is strong in the V4 countries but may be diluted by strengthening environmentalist norms. Scholarship about the relationship between climate change‐related concerns and fertility in these pronatalist countries is scarce. I examine this potential relationship by analysing respondents’ ideas about the generally and personally ideal number of children using Eurobarometer data from 2011 through logistic regression analysis. The results are contradictory: Climate change concerns seem to be positively associated with a smaller ideal family size in Hungary, but only from a general perspective (i.e., not for respondents personally). A positive relationship can be found in the Czech Republic regarding climate concerns and personal ideal family size. In Slovakia, a strong negative association was observed between climate change‐related concerns and smaller general and personal ideal family sizes.

The parent trap: desire for multifetal gestation among patients treated for infertility.

ObjectiveTo evaluate predictors for patient preference regarding multifetal or singleton gestation among women presenting for infertility care.DesignCross-sectional study.SettingAcademic university hospital-based infertility clinic.Patient(s)Five hundred thirty-nine female patients with infertility who presented for their initial visit.Main outcome measure(s)Demographic characteristics, infertility history, insurance coverage, desired treatment outcome, acceptability of multifetal reduction, and knowledge of the risks of multifetal pregnancies were assessed using a previously published 41-question survey. Univariate analysis was performed to assess patient factors associated with the desire for multiple births. Independent factors associated with this desire were subsequently assessed by multivariate logistic regression analysis.Result(s)Nearly a third of women preferred multiples over a singleton gestation. Nulliparity, lower annual household income, older maternal age, marital status, larger ideal family size, openness to multifetal reduction, and lack of knowledge of the maternal/fetal risks of twin pregnancies were associated with pregnancy desire. Older age (OR (95% CI) 1.66 (1.20–2.29)), nulliparity (OR (95% CI) 0.34 (0.20–0.58)), larger ideal family size (OR (95% CI) 2.34 (1.73–3.14)), and lesser knowledge of multifetal pregnancy risk (OR (95% CI) 0.67 (0.55–0.83)) were independently associated with desire.Conclusion(s)A large number of patients undergoing fertility treatment desire multifetal gestation. Although a lack of understanding of the risks associated with higher order pregnancies contributes to this desire, additional individual specific variables also contribute to this trend. Efforts to reduce the incidence of multiples should focus not only on patient education on comparative risks of multiples vs singleton pregnancies but also account for individual specific reservations.

Perceptions of family planning among some Somali men living in Sweden: A phenomenographic study

ObjectiveA growing body of research in Sweden has focused on migration and reproductive health, particularly on women’s perspectives, including family planning and contraception. However, knowledge is limited on how immigrant men perceive family planning. The topic is important because women’s use of family planning has been shown to be influenced by their partners and community. Therefore, this study aims to explore perceptions of family planning among Somali men living in Sweden. MethodsA qualitative phenomenographic approach was used. Four focus group discussions were conducted with 41 men aged 28–59 years. Data were analysed using phenomenographic analysis.Findings.The following four categories were identified in the analysis: 1) a happier and more sustainable family; 2) ideal family size versus cultural commitment; 3) fears of using modern family planning methods; and 4) a need to be included in family planning. The findings illuminated the complexities of perceptions of family planning. Although Somali men understood the benefits of family planning, they seemed to prefer a large family. However, due to their new social context in Sweden, they had also changed their views on having as large a family as in their home country. ConclusionOur findings suggest that Somali men living in Sweden want to be involved in family planning counselling, which may increase women’s use of contraception. However, healthcare providers must ensure that the woman desires her partner’s involvement and be culturally sensitive about couples’ needs.

Negative associations of ideal family size achievement with hypertension, obesity and maternal age in women with and without polycystic ovary syndrome

To investigate lifetime reproductive outcomes and the relationship of ideal family size (IFS) achievement with metabolic, psychiatric and reproductive history in women with and without polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). Cross-sectional. A total of 9034 women with (n = 778) and without self-reported PCOS (n = 8256) born between 1973 and 1978 in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Self-reported IFS achievement and total number of live births. Women with and without PCOS aspired for similar IFS. Compared with women without PCOS, significantly less women with PCOS achieved their IFS (53.08% vs. 60.47%, p < 0.001). Higher proportion of women with PCOS did not achieve a live birth (37.15% vs. 31.64%, p = 0.002) and their median total number of live births was also lower (1 vs. 2, p < 0.001) than women without PCOS. After controlling for sociodemographic factors, negative associations were observed between IFS achievement and PCOS status, various metabolic, psychiatric and reproductive history. However, only hypertension (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 0.82, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.67-1.00), obesity (adjusted OR: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.69-0.90), history of in vitro fertilisation use (IVF) (adjusted OR: 0.49, 95% CI: 0.38-0.63) and maternal age at first childbirth (adjusted OR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.91-0.93) remained inversely associated with achievement of IFS in further multivariable regression models. Metabolic conditions and reproductive history of maternal age at first childbirth and history of IVF use, but not psychological conditions, were associated with reduced odds of achieving IFS. Early family planning/initiation and optimisation of metabolic health may help to improve reproductive outcomes.

Shifting dynamics: Changes in the relationship between total fertility rate and contraceptive prevalence rate in Jordan between 2012 and 2017.

Background: Between the two most recent Population and Family Health Surveys, Jordan saw a dramatic decline in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) from 3.5 to 2.7 in 5.5 years. Over the same period, modern contraceptive use also declined, from 61.2% to 51.8% among married women. This decrease in both TFR and the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) diverges from the typical relationship seen between these two factors whereby historically as CPR increases, TFR decreases. This paper explores this unique pattern using multiple methodologies. Methods: First, we validate the survey data using nationally collected data on fertility and contraceptive distribution. Second, we look to changes that have historically influenced changes in CPR and TFR, including changes in ideal family size and wanted fertility rates. Third, we explore proximate determinants and other influences on fertility and changes in contraception, examining the changes in the method mix and unmet need; marriage patterns, including the demographics of the married population, spousal separation, and time since last sex; postpartum insusceptibility; infecundity, both primary and secondary; and abortion, to see if any have shifted significantly enough to allow for fertility to decline with less contraceptive use. Results: We find that the decline in fertility in Jordan was driven by a reduction in mistimed or unwanted pregnancies and there was a significant increase in the share of reproductive aged women who are infecund. We also concluded that the changes in fertility and contraceptive use are driven by changes in Jordanian nationals, not by the growing Syrian refugee population. Conclusions: Jordan is not the only country to be experiencing a shift in the typical relationship between CPR and TFR. Results can inform both future approaches for family planning programs and our expectations regarding what kind of change our family planning investments might buy.

Shifting dynamics: Changes in the relationship between total fertility rate and contraceptive prevalence rate in Jordan between 2012 and 2017

Background: Between the two most recent Population and Family Health Surveys, Jordan saw a dramatic decline in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) from 3.5 to 2.7 in 5.5 years. Over the same period, modern contraceptive use also declined, from 61.2% to 51.8% among married women. This decrease in both TFR and the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) diverges from the typical relationship seen between these two factors whereby historically as CPR increases, TFR decreases. This paper explores this unique pattern using multiple methodologies. Methods: First, we validate the survey data using nationally collected data on fertility and contraceptive distribution. Second, we look to changes that have historically influenced changes in CPR and TFR, including changes in ideal family size and wanted fertility rates. Third, we explore proximate determinants and other influences on fertility and changes in contraception, examining the changes in the method mix and unmet need; marriage patterns, including the demographics of the married population, spousal separation, and time since last sex; postpartum insusceptibility; infecundity, both primary and secondary; and abortion, to see if any have shifted significantly enough to allow for fertility to decline with less contraceptive use. Results: We find that the decline in fertility in Jordan was driven by a reduction in mistimed or unwanted pregnancies and there was a significant increase in the share of reproductive aged women who are infecund. We also concluded that the changes in fertility and contraceptive use are driven by changes in Jordanian nationals, not by the growing Syrian refugee population. Conclusions: Jordan is not the only country to be experiencing a shift in the typical relationship between CPR and TFR. Results can inform both future approaches for family planning programs and our expectations regarding what kind of change our family planning investments might buy.

How does the sex composition of children affect men's higher ideal family size preference relative to women and contraceptive use patterns among couples? A cross-sectional analysis of dyadic couple's data in India

IntroductionSon preference, an ongoing concern in India, is a known driver of ideal family size preferences and contraceptive use among couples. These associations can vary substantially with parity and can influence men and women differently. This study assesses the association of sex composition of children by parity and a) men's higher ideal family size preference relative to women and b) use of modern contraceptives by couples. MethodsWe used the Couples Recode dataset from National Family Health Survey (NFHS) 2015-16 and identified couples who had at least one child and had complete responses for variables used in the study (N = 56,731 couples). We developed multivariable linear and logistic regression models to study the association between sex composition of children by parity and our dependent variables. ResultsOur findings indicate that the sex composition of children is associated with men's higher ideal family size preference, relative to women, among couples with four or more children. We also find that couples with less than four children are less likely to use modern contraceptives when they have an equal or a greater number of daughters than sons compared to those who have no daughters. Findings suggest that couples with four or more children are more likely to use modern contraceptives when they have at least one son and one daughter and are less likely to use contraceptives when they have all daughters and no sons, than couples who have no daughters. ConclusionThis study contributes to existing research on the relationship between sex composition of children with ideal family size preferences and contraceptive use by highlighting meaningful differences between higher and lower parity couples. Findings from the study can be used by family planning programs in India to customize family planning counselling messages by both sex composition and parity.

Male childlessness across the adult life course: A case study addressing a potentially 'vulnerable' population.

Like other Latin American countries, over the past half-century, Colombia has experienced rapid urbanization, dramatic fertility decline, and massive educational expansion. These socio-demographic changes have transformed gender roles and, with them, the landscape surrounding reproductive decisions, family life, and opportunities in other life 'domains.' I draw on the 'life course cube' (LCC) approach, which frames individual actions within a multidimensional behavioral process shaped by interdependencies between time, life domains, and levels to explore Colombian male childlessness. I seek to answer two questions: How does Colombian non-fatherhood vary across the life course (with respect to overall prevalence and associated factors)? and How do men frame their non-fatherhood, and, especially, how do they envision a future without children? To address the first question, I used the 2015 Colombian Demographic and Health Survey's men's dataset (N > 30,000) to explore the overall level of male childlessness across age/generational groups and separate voluntary/involuntary childlessness. Then, using generalized linear models, I analyzed the relationships between different life domains (e.g. education, employment) and non-fatherhood at time points representing early-, mid-, and later-life childlessness (among men in their thirties, forties, and fifties). To address the second question, I used qualitative data from in-depth life history interviews I conducted with male (N = 7) and female (N = 28) parents/non-parents in Bogotá, analyzing connections between different 'levels' of men's experiences: their inner feelings, past and (envisioned) future actions, and societal factors framing childlessness. The quantitative findings indicate that male childlessness across the adult life course is strongly associated with later start of first union/never entering a union, and with small ideal family size. Later-life, definitive childlessness is also strongly associated with relative economic disadvantage and lower-prestige occupations, though early-life fatherhood postponement is not. Qualitatively, interviewed men expressed more worry and less preparation for the future than childless women. Understanding 'vulnerability' as 'the dynamics of stress and resources across the life course', I discuss these findings, paying attention to older non-fathers' potential psycho-social, relational, and socioeconomic vulnerability. Therefore, this work seeks to contribute to the literature on the determinants and experiences of male childlessness, focusing on a Latin American perspective.

The Paradox of Planning: Agriculture, Schooling, and the Unresolvable Uncertainty of Ideal Family Size in Rural Sierra Leone

AbstractPost-war Sierra Leone has experienced a population explosion that has raised questions among rural farmers about the relationship between family size and poverty. Agricultural decline and the high cost of schooling are not prompting parents to articulate a desire for smaller families; rather, they highlight that the uncertainty around articulating the “right” number of children is unresolvable because the ability to send children to school is predicated on increasing agricultural outputs that decline precisely because population pressure has reduced soil fertility. Bolten and Marcantonio conclude that this renders family size the heart of a paradox, where there is no optimal number of children.

Husband, sons and the fertility gap: evidence from India

A fertility gap—the difference between a woman’s ideal number of children and her actual number of children—is prevalent in both directions. We investigate the distribution of the fertility gap in India and factors that lead to women exceeding or underachieving their ideal number of children. We find that preference for males has a significant effect, contributing to a negative as well as a positive fertility gap. The probability that a woman exceeds her ideal number of children reduces by 7 percent in 2005–06 and 10 percent in 2015–16 if her first child is male. Further, we find that a husband’s preferences significantly shape the fertility gap. A woman is likely to exceed her ideal number of children by 3–4 percent if her husband prefers a higher number of sons than daughters. A husband’s ideal family size has an effect of similar magnitude as his son preference. Our results point to the important role of gender norms and household perspective in fertility analysis and policy settings and the challenges during fertility transitions.

Violence and precarity: A neglected cause of large family sizes in Pakistan

ABSTRACT A key objective of Pakistan’s family planning program has been to increase awareness of the benefits of a small family. Despite five decades of effort, family size ideals of four children persist. Research suggests a preference for large families and many sons is driven by an economic and gender order that situates sons, and subsequent large families, as a form of financial and social capital. We argue an additional factor promoting large family size in Pakistan is precarity. Drawing upon 13 months’ of ethnographic work from a village in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, our data show our respondents’ preference for large families with several sons was a rational response to precarity, created by economic insecurity and persistent conflict. While child mortality has reduced, the risk of an untimely conflict-related death of adult sons remains high and continues to play a crucial role in our respondents’ family size calculations. Our research contributes to the body of literature listing the forces pushing large family sizes and provides an additional explanation for Pakistan’s stagnating modern contraceptive prevalence rate. It also provides policy direction for reducing Pakistan’s high fertility rate, suggesting a need to address the upstream factors that contribute to the continuing need for large families.

Contraception use and fertility aspiration among currently married young men in India: Do gender attitudes matter?

There is extensive research on the relationship between women’s attitudes to gender equality and fertility aspirations and use of contraception. However, there are few studies on the relationship between men’s attitudes about gender equality and their ideal family size and contraceptive use. The study described here tries to address this gap using data from the recent round of National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4) to examine the association between men’s gender attitudes and contraceptives use and ideal family size. Descriptive statistics, logistic regression, and multiple linear regression techniques were applied in the study. Results show that gender attitudes were associated with the men’s perceptions about ideal family size and contraceptive use. Men who showed more tolerance of the practice of wife beating are more likely to support the ideal of large families and low use of contraceptives. This view is independent of education level, income, and religion. This finding points to the need for the government to address men’s beliefs and attitudes in its interventions to reduce fertility.

Why Has the Share of Two-Child Families Stopped Growing? Trends in Education-Specific Parity Distribution in Low-Fertility Countries

During the last four decades, the two-child family ideal has become nearly universal across the low-fertility countries. The proportion of families with two children, which was growing during the baby boom, stopped increasing in the late 1940s and early 1950s birth cohorts, remaining far below the number of people reporting two as their ideal family size. This paper examines how changes in the share of two-child families were linked to trends in the transitions to first, second and third birth. We analyse how the relationship varied over time across countries and education levels using census and large-scale survey data for women born between 1936 and 1970 in 12 European countries, Australia, New Zealand and the United States. The results suggest that in most countries the changes in the share of two-child families were closely linked to the progression to third birth. Increasing childlessness also suppressed the number of two-child families in Western Germany and English-speaking countries. Changes in the transition to second birth played a non-negligible role in Southern Europe, English-speaking countries and, except among the low-educated, in Central-Eastern Europe.

Exposure to Armed Conflict and Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Changes in fertility patterns are hypothesized to be among the many second-order consequences of armed conflict, but expectations about the direction of such effects are theoretically ambiguous. Prior research, from a range of contexts, has also yielded inconsistent results. We contribute to this debate by using harmonized data and methods to examine the effects of exposure to conflict on preferred and observed fertility outcomes across a spatially and temporally extensive population. We use high-resolution georeferenced data from 25 sub-Saharan African countries, combining records of violent events from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) with data on fertility goals and outcomes from the Demographic and Health Surveys (n = 368,765 women aged 15-49 years). We estimate a series of linear and logistic regression models to assess the effects of exposure to conflict events on ideal family size and the probability of childbearing within the 12 months prior to the interview. We find that, on average, exposure to armed conflict leads to modest reductions in both respondents' preferred family size and their probability of recent childbearing. Many of these effects are heterogeneous between demographic groups and across contexts, which suggests systematic differences in women's vulnerability or preferred responses to armed conflict. Additional analyses suggest that conflict-related fertility declines may be driven by delays or reductions in marriage. These results contribute new evidence about the demographic effects of conflict and their underlying mechanisms, and broadly underline the importance of studying the second-order effects of organized violence on vulnerable populations.

Shifting dynamics: Changes in the relationship between total fertility rate and contraceptive prevalence rate in Jordan between 2012 and 2017

Background: Between the two most recent Population and Family Health Surveys, Jordan saw a dramatic decline in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) from 3.5 to 2.7 in 5.5 years. Over the same period, modern contraceptive use also declined, from 61.2% to 51.8% among married women. This decrease in both TFR and the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) diverges from the typical relationship seen between these two factors whereby historically as CPR increases, TFR decreases. This paper explores this unique pattern using multiple methodologies. Methods: First, we validate the survey data using nationally collected data on fertility and contraceptive distribution. Second, we look to changes that have historically influenced changes in CPR and TFR, including changes in ideal family size and wanted fertility rates. Third, we explore proximate determinants and other influences on fertility and changes in contraception, examining the changes in the method mix and unmet need; marriage patterns, including the demographics of the married population, spousal separation, and time since last sex; postpartum insusceptibility; infecundity, both primary and secondary; and abortion, to see if any have shifted significantly enough to allow for fertility to decline with less contraceptive use. Results: We find that the decline in fertility in Jordan was driven by a reduction in mistimed or unwanted pregnancies and there was a significant increase in the share of reproductive aged women who are infecund. We also concluded that the changes in fertility and contraceptive use are driven by changes in Jordanian nationals, not by the growing Syrian refugee population. Conclusions: Jordan is not the only country to be experiencing a shift in the typical relationship between CPR and TFR. Results can inform both future approaches for family planning programs and our expectations regarding what kind of change our family planning investments might buy.

Fertility will be determined by the changing ideal family size and the empowerment to reach these targets

Introduction: the relevance of studying fertility across time and space Tomáš Sobotka Debate International political economy and future fertility trends Alícia Adserà Moving out the parental home and partnership formation as social determinants of low fertility Albert Esteve, Diederik Boertien, Ryohei Mogi and Mariona Lozano “Catching up with ‘compressed modernity”’ - How the values of Millennials and Gen-Z’ers could reframe gender equity and demographic systems Stuart Gietel-Basten Future fertility trends are shaped at the intersection of gender and social stratification Trude Lappegård The wish for a child Anna Rotkirch Fertility will be determined by the changing ideal family size and the empowerment to reach these targets Wolfgang Lutz Marriage will (continue to) be the key to the future of fertility in Japan and East Asia Setsuya Fukuda Review Article Ultra-low fertility in East Asia: Confucianism and its discontents Yen-hsin Alice Cheng Research Articles Laggards in the global fertility transition David Shapiro, Andrew Hinde Projecting future births with fertility differentials reflecting women’s educational and migrant characteristics Michaela Potančoková, Guillaume Marois Decomposing changes in first birth trends: Quantum, timing, or variance Ryohei Mogi, Michael Dominic del Mundo What factors support the early age patterns of fertility in a developing country: the case of Kyrgyzstan Konstantin Kazenin, Vladimir Kozlov Marital fertility decline and child mortality in the Sardinian longevity Blue Zone Michel Poulain, Dany Chambre, Pino Ledda, Anne Herm Future orientation and fertility: cross-national evidence using Google search Nicolò Cavalli Selected Wittgenstein Centre databases on fertility across time and space Kryštof Zeman, Tomáš Sobotka

Contraception usage and the desired number of offspring of Indigenous women from the Gomeroi lands.

To describe the current contraception usage patterns from a cohort of Australian Indigenous women, including their ideal family size and spacing between children. Cross-sectional analysis of data (2012-2019). Data are from a longitudinal study, the Gomeroi gaaynggal (babies from Gomeroi lands) program, based in rural and remote Gomeroi lands in New South Wales. Women carrying an Indigenous baby who enrolled during pregnancy were eligible for the study. The mother and child are then followed for up to 10years. Contraception usage in the postnatal period was recorded, as well as whether they were sexually active, whether they wanted more children and their preferred spacing between children. Medical, social and demographic information was also collected. These measures were self-reported via an online tool (Survey Monkey® ) at their first visit to the study following the birth of their child. Ninety-nine women were included in the analysis. Most women reported that they were sexually active at the time they were questioned about their contraceptive usage. The most popular contraception choices were condoms, the oral contraceptive pill and implant rods. Those answering that they did not want more children had a median of three children already. Those who wanted more children had a median of one child. The majority of the women stated that 2-3years between babies was ideal. The sampled women had clear beliefs about their ideal family size, in which contraceptive usage played an important part.