Abstract
Background: Between the two most recent Population and Family Health Surveys, Jordan saw a dramatic decline in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) from 3.5 to 2.7 in 5.5 years. Over the same period, modern contraceptive use also declined, from 61.2% to 51.8% among married women. This decrease in both TFR and the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) diverges from the typical relationship seen between these two factors whereby historically as CPR increases, TFR decreases. This paper explores this unique pattern using multiple methodologies. Methods: First, we validate the survey data using nationally collected data on fertility and contraceptive distribution. Second, we look to changes that have historically influenced changes in CPR and TFR, including changes in ideal family size and wanted fertility rates. Third, we explore proximate determinants and other influences on fertility and changes in contraception, examining the changes in the method mix and unmet need; marriage patterns, including the demographics of the married population, spousal separation, and time since last sex; postpartum insusceptibility; infecundity, both primary and secondary; and abortion, to see if any have shifted significantly enough to allow for fertility to decline with less contraceptive use. Results: We find that the decline in fertility in Jordan was driven by a reduction in mistimed or unwanted pregnancies and there was a significant increase in the share of reproductive aged women who are infecund. We also concluded that the changes in fertility and contraceptive use are driven by changes in Jordanian nationals, not by the growing Syrian refugee population. Conclusions: Jordan is not the only country to be experiencing a shift in the typical relationship between CPR and TFR. Results can inform both future approaches for family planning programs and our expectations regarding what kind of change our family planning investments might buy.
Highlights
Between the two most recent Population and Family Health Surveys, Jordan saw a dramatic decline in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) from 3.5 to 2.7 in 5.5 years
We find that the decline in fertility in Jordan was driven by a reduction in mistimed or unwanted pregnancies and there was a significant increase in the share of reproductive aged women who are infecund
Jordan is not the only country to be experiencing a shift in the typical relationship between contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) and TFR
Summary
Between the two most recent Population and Family Health Surveys, Jordan saw a dramatic decline in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) from 3.5 to 2.7 in 5.5 years. Modern contraceptive use declined, from 61.2% to 51.8% among married women This decrease in both TFR and the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) diverges from the typical relationship seen between these two factors whereby historically as CPR increases, TFR decreases. Between the two most recent Jordan Population and Family Health Surveys (JPFHS), rather than the CPR increasing and the TFR decreasing, Jordan saw a decline in both CPR among married women (from 61.2% to 51.8%) and TFR (from 3.5 to 2.7) over the period of just 5.5 years. Was this significant shift due to data errors? In addition to programmatic efforts to influence demand and use of family planning services; major recent changes in the Jordanian socio-economic environment have likely influenced fertility and contraceptive use outcomes[7]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
