Ice Changes Research Articles

Effect of water movement in frozen soil on long-term hydrological simulation of Soil and Water Assessment Tool in cold climate watershed in Hokkaido, Japan

ABSTRACT Despite the unique hydrological properties exhibited by frozen soil, its characteristics are often oversimplified in most distributed hydrological models, resulting in major errors in material cycle predictions in cold climate regions. This study aims to modify the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a semi-distributed hydrological model that originally assumes no water movement in frozen soil layers, by incorporating the dynamic change of soil permeability based on the degree of soil freezing, and to understand the effect of water movement in frozen soil on watershed hydrology. SWAT with frozen soil permeability (SWAT-FSP) was developed by adding two modules to the original SWAT: a heat conduction equation that considers the phase change of ice and liquid water and a frozen-soil percolation model that considers dynamic decrease in soil permeability due to soil freezing. The original SWAT and SWAT-FSP were set up in the Tokoro River watershed in northern Japan. The river flow and soil water dynamics during the snowmelt period (March–May) simulated using the original SWAT and SWAT-FSP were compared. The modified model significantly alters the soil water dynamics simulation to generate earlier soil water drainage and reduces the soil water content during the snowmelt period in years featuring weak soil freezing. Consequently, the SWAT-FSP estimated an earlier increase in river flow at the beginning of the snowmelt period and a smaller river flow in the middle of the snowmelt period as compared with the original SWAT. The modified model improved the overall performance in river flow simulation for the snowmelt period (March–May) of 2012–2019. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency obtained during the calibration period by the original SWAT was 0.602, and during the validation period it was 0.367. For the SWAT-FSP, it was 0.659 during calibration, and 0.639 during validation. Meanwhile, the SWAT-FSP showed unsatisfactory performance in 2014 and 2015, with underestimated snow water equivalent, indicating that improvements in the snowmelt/accumulation module may further enhance its accuracy. Our results showed that the dynamic change of soil permeability governed by the degree of soil freezing is an important factor affecting the water cycle of cold climate watersheds with seasonally frozen soil.

Featured data sources and normalised indices of use in small Arctic catchments research

The development of remote sensing instruments and methods has revolutionised work practices worldwide, resulting in a new field of research. Remote sensing has significantly expanded the possibilities for detailed research, spanning from biological to urban studies, by constantly imaging the Earth. Numerous photogrammetric campaigns and satellite missions have been increasing the possibilities for conducting research that includes larger areas and time scales while minimising the need for fieldwork. This is particularly useful in polar regions, where fieldwork is complicated by harsh weather conditions, hard-to-reach research areas, polar nights, and the need for high funding and logistical support. Here available algorithms that help to track environmental shifts in the small Arctic catchments, such as changes in ice, snow, vegetation, and water are presented.

Understanding the influence of ocean waves on Arctic sea ice simulation: a modeling study with an atmosphere–ocean–wave–sea ice coupled model

Abstract. Rapid decline in Arctic sea ice has created more open water for ocean wave development and highlighted the importance of wave–ice interactions in the Arctic. Some studies have made contributions to our understanding of the potential role of the prognostic floe size distribution (FSD) in sea ice changes. However, these efforts do not represent the full interactions across atmosphere, ocean, wave, and sea ice. In this study, we implement a modified joint floe size and thickness distribution (FSTD) in a newly developed regional atmosphere–ocean–wave–sea ice coupled model and conduct a series of pan-Arctic simulations with different physical configurations related to FSD changes, including FSD-fixed, FSD-varied, lateral melting rate, wave-fracturing formulation, and wave attenuation rate. Firstly, our atmosphere–ocean–wave–sea ice coupled simulations show that the prognostic FSD leads to reduced ice area due to enhanced ice–ocean heat fluxes, but the feedbacks from the atmosphere and the ocean partially offset the reduced ice area induced by the prognostic FSD. Secondly, lateral melting rate formulations do not change the simulated FSD significantly, but they influence the flux exchanges across atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice and thus sea ice responses. Thirdly, the changes in FSD are sensitive to the simulated wave height, wavelength, and wave period associated with different wave-fracturing formulations and wave attenuation rates, and the limited oceanic energy imposes a strong constraint on the response of sea ice to FSD changes. Finally, our results also demonstrate that wave-related physical processes can have impacts on sea ice changes with the constant FSD, suggesting the indirect influences of ocean waves on sea ice through the atmosphere and the ocean.

Comparison of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice spatial–temporal changes during 1979–2018

In recent years, the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice changes fluctuated significantly, and the overall trend of sea ice changes in the Arctic and Antarctic is opposite. However, studying the change characteristics and trends of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice on more sensitive sea ice parameters and on smaller time scales still has high research value and significance. The Antarctic and Arctic sea ice spatial–temporal changes are studied and compared from the aspects of sea ice concentration, sea ice extent, first-year ice extent, multi-year ice extent, melting period and freezing period based on the daily sea ice concentration data during three periods of 1979–2018, 2009–2018, and 2014–2018, in order to more comprehensively reflect the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice changes. The results are as follows: Sea ice concentration showed a decreasing trend with the maximum negative change rate of −1.771 %/year in the Arctic and an increasing trend with the maximum positive change rate of 1.007 %/year in the Antarctic, and sea ice concentration in the Arctic and Antarctic showed a decreasing trend accompanied by the decrease of latitude. The Antarctic sea ice extent increased slowly, however, there was a more obvious decrease in the Arctic sea ice extent. The Arctic sea ice melting period increased 0.1564 days/year and the freezing period decreased 0.1646 days/year, and the Antarctic melting period increased 0.0402 days/year and the freezing period decreased −0.037 days/year. First-year ice extent in the Arctic and Antarctic showed a increasing trend, and multi-year ice extent showed a decreasing trend.

Monitoring Polar Ice Change in the Twilight Zone

Landsat’s new extended data collection program is mapping Arctic and Antarctic regions year-round, even in polar twilight.

Global and regional ocean mass budget closure since 2003

In recent sea level studies, discrepancies have arisen in ocean mass observations obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and its successor, GRACE Follow-On, with GRACE estimates consistently appearing lower than density-corrected ocean volume observations since 2015. These disparities have raised concerns about potential systematic biases in sea-level observations, with significant implications for our understanding of this essential climate variable. Here, we reconstruct the global and regional ocean mass change through models of ice and water mass changes on land and find that it closely aligns with both GRACE and density-corrected ocean volume observations after implementing recent adjustments to the wet troposphere correction and halosteric sea level. While natural variability in terrestrial water storage is important on interannual timescales, we find that the net increase in ocean mass over 20 years can be almost entirely attributed to ice wastage and human management of water resources.

Environmental drivers of Arctic communities based on metabarcoding of marine sediment eDNA.

Our ability to assess biodiversity at relevant spatial and temporal scales for informing management is of increasing importance given this is foundational to identify and mitigate the impacts of global change. Collecting baseline information and tracking ecological changes are particularly important for areas experiencing rapid changes and representing data gaps such as Arctic marine ecosystems. Environmental DNA has the potential to provide such data. We extracted environmental DNA from 90 surface sediment samples to assess eukaryote diversity around Greenland and Svalbard using two separate primer pairs amplifying different sections of the 18S rRNA gene. We detected 27 different phyla and 99 different orders and found that temperature and the change in temperature explained the most variation in the community in a single linear model, while latitude, sea ice cover and change in temperature explained the most variation in the community when assessed by individual non-linear models. We identified potential indicator taxa for Arctic climate change, including a terebellid annelid worm. In conclusion, our study demonstrates that environmental DNA offers a feasible method to assess biodiversity and identifies warming as a key driver of differences in biodiversity across these remote ecosystems.

What children know and want to know about climate change: a prior-knowledge self-assessment

Researchers engaging in science communication tend to present information that they find most important. However, understanding the level of prior knowledge and interest of a target audience is key for effective communication of science, especially when dealing with complex and mediatic themes, such as climate change. This study relies on a prior-knowledge self-assessment applied to children between 10 and 13 years old, followed by a mixed analysis under the assumptions of the Grounded Theory. The goal is to understand whether children’s self-perception of knowledge and interests regarding climate change can support the design of environmental education initiatives. Children declared to know about the concept of climate change and specific causes and consequences, but were generally incapable of specifying topics about which they are interested in learning about. And when these were specified, they match the ones they already know about – sea ice changes, pollution and biota. This suggests that relying solely on children’s interests may originate ‘information corridors’. Future initiatives should therefore not only resonate with children’s experiences and reality, but also broaden fields of knowledge by introducing innovative approaches that go beyond researchers’ pre-assumptions.

Seasonal Variations and Spatial Patterns of Arctic Cloud Changes in Association with Sea Ice Loss during 1950–2019 in ERA5

Abstract The dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms that link retreating sea ice to increased Arctic cloud amount and cloud water content are unclear. Using the fifth generation of the ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5), the long-term changes between years 1950–79 and 1990–2019 in Arctic clouds are estimated along with their relationship to sea ice loss. A comparison of ERA5 to CERES satellite cloud fractions reveals that ERA5 simulates the seasonal cycle, variations, and changes of cloud fraction well over water surfaces during 2001–20. This suggests that ERA5 may reliably represent the cloud response to sea ice loss because melting sea ice exposes more water surfaces in the Arctic. Increases in ERA5 Arctic cloud fraction and water content are largest during October–March from ∼950 to 700 hPa over areas with significant (≥15%) sea ice loss. Further, regions with significant sea ice loss experience higher convective available potential energy (∼2–2.75 J kg−1), planetary boundary layer height (∼120–200 m), and near-surface specific humidity (∼0.25–0.40 g kg−1) and a greater reduction of the lower-tropospheric temperature inversion (∼3°–4°C) than regions with small (<15%) sea ice loss in autumn and winter. Areas with significant sea ice loss also show strengthened upward motion between 1000 and 700 hPa, enhanced horizontal convergence (divergence) of air, and decreased (increased) relative humidity from 1000 to 950 hPa (950–700 hPa) during the cold season. Analyses of moisture divergence, evaporation minus precipitation, and meridional moisture flux fields suggest that increased local surface water fluxes, rather than atmospheric motions, provide a key source of moisture for increased Arctic clouds over newly exposed water surfaces during October–March. Significance Statement Sea ice loss has been shown to be a primary contributor to Arctic warming. Despite the evidence linking large sea ice retreat to Arctic warming, some studies have suggested that enhanced downwelling longwave radiation associated with increased clouds and water vapor is the primary reason for Arctic amplification. However, it is unclear how sea ice loss is linked to changes in clouds and water vapor in the Arctic. Here, we investigate the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and changes in clouds using the ERA5 dataset. Improved knowledge of the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and changes in clouds will help further our understanding of the role of the cloud feedback in Arctic warming.

Modeled variations in the inherent optical properties of summer Arctic ice and their effects on the radiation budget: a case based on ice cores from 2008 to 2016

Abstract. Variations in Arctic sea ice are apparent not only in its extent and thickness but also in its internal properties under global warming. The microstructure of summer Arctic sea ice changes due to varying external forces, ice age, and extended melting seasons, which affect its optical properties. Sea ice cores sampled in the Pacific sector of the Arctic obtained by the Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition (CHINARE) during the summers of 2008 to 2016 were used to estimate the variations in the microstructures and inherent optical properties (IOPs) of ice and determine the radiation budget of sea ice based on a radiative transfer model. The variations in the volume fraction of gas bubbles (Va) of the ice top layer were not significant, and the Va of the ice interior layer was significant. Compared with 2008, the mean Va of interior ice in 2016 decreased by 9.1 %. Meanwhile, the volume fraction of brine pockets increased clearly during 2008–2016. The changing microstructure resulted in the scattering coefficient of the interior ice decreasing by 38.4 % from 2008 to 2016, while no clear variations can be seen in the scattering coefficient of the ice top layer. These estimated ice IOPs fell within the range of other observations. Furthermore, we found that variations in interior ice were significantly related to the interannual changes in ice ages. At the Arctic basin scale, the changing IOPs of interior ice greatly changed the amount of solar radiation transmitted to the upper ocean even when a constant ice thickness is assumed, especially for thin ice in marginal zones, implying the presence of different sea ice bottom melt processes. These findings revealed the important role of the changing microstructure and IOPs of ice in affecting the radiation transfer of Arctic sea ice.

Going with the floe: Sea-ice movement affects distance and destination during Adélie penguin winter movements.

Seasonal migration, driven by shifts in annual climate cycles and resources, is a key part of the life history and ecology of species across taxonomic groups. By influencing the amount of energy needed to move, external forces such as wind and ocean currents are often key drivers of migratory pathways exposing individuals to varying resources, environmental conditions, and competition pressures impacting individual fitness and population dynamics. Although wildlife movements in connection with wind and ocean currents are relatively well understood, movements within sea-ice fields have been much less studied, despite sea ice being an integral part of polar ecology. Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) in the southern Ross Sea, Antarctica, currently exist at the southernmost edge of their range and undergo the longest (~12,000 km) winter migration known for the species. Within and north of the Ross Sea, the Ross Gyre drives ocean circulation and the large-scale movement of sea ice. We used remotely sensed sea-ice movement data together with geolocation-based penguin movement data to test the hypothesis that penguins use gyre-driven sea-ice movement to aid their migration. We found that penguins traveled greater distances when their movement vectors were aligned with those of sea ice (i.e., ice support) and the amount of ice support received depended on which route a penguin took. We also found that birds that took an eastern route traveled significantly further north in two of the 3 years we examined, coinciding with higher velocities of sea ice in those years. We compare our findings to patterns observed in migrating species that utilize air or water currents for their travel and with other studies showing the importance of ocean/sea-ice circulation patterns to wildlife movement and life history patterns within the Ross Sea. Changes in sea ice may have consequences not only for energy expenditure but, by altering migration and movement pathways, to the ecological interactions that exist in this region.

Impact of atmospheric rivers on Arctic sea ice variations

Abstract. Arctic sea ice has been declining rapidly in recent decades. We investigate how the poleward transport of moisture and heat from lower latitudes through atmospheric rivers (ARs) influences Arctic sea ice variations. We use hourly ERA5 (fifth-generation European Reanalysis) data for 1981–2020 at 0.25∘ × 0.25∘ resolution to examine the meteorological conditions and sea ice changes associated with ARs in the Arctic. In the years 2012 and 2020, which had an extremely low summer Arctic sea ice extent, we show that the individual AR events associated with large cyclones initiate a rapid sea ice decrease through turbulent heat fluxes and winds. We carry out further statistical analysis of the meteorological conditions and sea ice variations for 1981–2020 over the entire Arctic Ocean. We find that on weather timescales the atmospheric moisture content anticorrelates significantly with the sea ice concentration tendency almost everywhere in the Arctic Ocean, while the dynamic sea ice motion driven by northward winds further reduces the sea ice concentration.

Seasonal Variability of Arctic Mid-Level Clouds and the Relationships with Sea Ice from 2003 to 2022: A Satellite Perspective

Mid-level clouds play a crucial role in the Arctic. Due to observational limitations, there is scarce research on the long-term evolution of Arctic mid-level clouds. From a satellite perspective, this study attempts to analyze the seasonal variations in Arctic mid-level clouds and explore the possible relationships with sea ice changes using observations from the hyperspectral Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) over the past two decades. For mid-level clouds of three layers (648, 548, and 447 hPa) involved in AIRS, high values of effective cloud fraction (ECF) occur in summer, and low values primarily occur in early spring, while the seasonal variations are different. The ECF anomalies are notably larger at 648 hPa than those at 548 and 447 hPa. Meanwhile, the ECF values at 648 hPa show a clear reduced seasonal variability for the regions north of 80°N, which has its minimum coefficient of variation (CV) during 2019 to 2020. The seasonal CV is relatively lower in the regions dominated by Greenland and sea areas with less sea ice coverage. Analysis indicates that the decline in mid-level ECF’s seasonal mean CV is closely correlated to the retreat of Arctic sea ice during September. Singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis reveals a reverse spatial pattern in the seasonal CV anomaly of mid-level clouds and leads anomaly. However, it is worth noting that this pattern varies by region. In the Greenland Sea and areas near the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, both CV and leads demonstrate negative (positive) anomalies, probably attributed to the stronger influence of atmospheric and oceanic circulations or the presence of land on the sea ice in these areas.

Adhesion of impure ice on surfaces.

The undesirable buildup of ice can compromise the operational safety of ships in the Arctic to high-flying airplanes, thereby having a detrimental impact on modern life in cold climates. The obstinately strong adhesion between ice and most functional surfaces makes ice removal an energetically expensive and dangerous affair. Hence, over the past few decades, substantial efforts have been directed toward the development of passive ice-shedding surfaces. Conventionally, such research on ice adhesion has almost always been based on ice solidified from pure water. However, in all practical situations, freezing water has dissolved contaminants; ice adhesion studies of which have remained elusive thus far. Here, we cast light on the fundamental role played by various impurities (salt, surfactant, and solvent) commonly found in natural water bodies on the adhesion of ice on common structural materials. We elucidate how varying freezing temperature & contaminant concentration can significantly alter the resultant ice adhesion strength making it either super-slippery or fiercely adherent. The entrapment of impurities in ice changes with the rate of freezing and ensuing adhesion strength increases as the cooling temperature decreases. We discuss the possible role played by the in situ generated solute enriched liquid layer and the nanometric water-like disordered ice layer sandwiched between ice and the substrate behind these observations. Our work provides useful insights into the elementary nature of impure water-to-ice transformation and contributes to the knowledge base of various natural phenomena and rational design of a broad spectrum of anti-icing technologies for transportation, infrastructure, and energy systems.

Declining lake ice in response to climate change can impact spending for local communities.

Lake ice is an important socio-economic resource that is threatened by climate change. The cover and duration of lake ice are expected to decline as air temperatures warm in the coming decades, disrupting a previously reliable source of income for many activities dependent on lake ice. The economic consequences of climate-induced lake ice loss remain unexplored, creating a significant research gap. The purpose of this study was to quantify the monetary spending associated with lake ice and how climate change may impact that value. Using a series of General Circulation Models (GCMs), greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, and models for lake ice cover, we predicted changes in lake ice by the end of the 21st century for the Northern Hemisphere. We also synthesized examples of spending associated with lake ice activities and discussed the potential implications expected with declining ice cover. We found that lake ice will decrease in area by 44,000-177,000 km2 and shorten in duration by 13-43 days by 2100. Using 31 examples of revenue from lake ice, we found that lake ice generates spending of over USD 2.04 billion to local communities and economies. We also found that countries predicted to experience the greatest ice loss by the end of the century are those that currently have the largest GDP, highest greenhouse gas emissions, and are most dependent on freshwater withdrawal. Our findings confirm predicted losses in lake ice that are expected because of climate change and quantify some of the potential consequences for local communities. Here we highlight lake ice as another casualty of human-caused climate change that will have profound socio-economic implications.

Polar climate change: a multidisciplinary assessment

The rapid environmental changes in polar regions have been attracting considerable political, public, and scientific attention in recent years. The polar amplification is recognized as a robust feature of the climate system in response to carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing, resulting in sea ice loss, ice sheet melting, and methane release from permafrost thawing. From a physical perspective, this paper examines the polar amplification and sea ice changes for past and future scenarios using satellite, reanalysis, and climate model datasets. From an interdisciplinary perspective, we discuss the potential environmental, socioeconomic, and political effects associated with these changes. The observational data showed enhanced warming and rapid changes in sea ice cover in polar regions. Under the largest future CO2 forcing, climate simulations indicate an unprecedented rise in air temperature and fast sea ice loss, even in low emission scenarios. This results in a number of physical, environmental, and social-economic effects that need to be carefully considered. Polar climate change, however, offers new opportunities, including the local increase in fisheries and the opening of new navigation routes, which substantially impact the world economy. At the same time, it also implies critical environmental consequences associated with many socioeconomic and ecological risks, such as migration or extinction of populations and species; sea level rise; an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather in mid-latitudes; and infrastructure damage from permafrost thawing. Even with the advances and improvements in climate modeling in recent decades, the exact nature of these nonlinear interactions is still in debate.

Record-high Antarctic Peninsula temperatures and surface melt in February 2022: a compound event with an intense atmospheric river

The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) experienced a new extreme warm event and record-high surface melt in February 2022, rivaling the recent temperature records from 2015 and 2020, and contributing to the alarming series of extreme warm events over this region showing stronger warming compared to the rest of Antarctica. Here, the drivers and impacts of the event are analyzed in detail using a range of observational and modeling data. The northern/northwestern AP was directly impacted by an intense atmospheric river (AR) attaining category 3 on the AR scale, which brought anomalous heat and rainfall, while the AR-enhanced foehn effect further warmed its northeastern side. The event was triggered by multiple large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns linking the AR formation to tropical convection anomalies and stationary Rossby waves, with an anomalous Amundsen Sea Low and a record-breaking high-pressure system east of the AP. This multivariate and spatial compound event culminated in widespread and intense surface melt across the AP. Circulation analog analysis shows that global warming played a role in the amplification and increased probability of the event. Increasing frequency of such events can undermine the stability of the AP ice shelves, with multiple local to global impacts, including acceleration of the AP ice mass loss and changes in sensitive ecosystems.

Sea Ice‐Driven Variability in the Pacific Subantarctic Mode Water Formation Regions

AbstractSubantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) forms north of the Subantarctic Front, in regions of deep winter mixed layers, and is important to the absorption and storage of anthropogenic CO2 and heat. Two SAMW pools exist in the Pacific, a lighter Central mode (CPSAMW), and a denser Southeast mode (SEPSAMW). Both have experienced significant interannual variability in thickness and properties in recent years. We compute mixed layer temperature and salinity budgets for the two SAMW formation regions, to determine the relative contribution of processes driving variability in the properties of mixed layers that subduct to form SAMW. The dominant drivers of temperature and salinity variability are shown to be surface fluxes, horizontal advection, and entrainment of deeper water. Salt advection into each SAMW formation region is found to be strongly correlated with changes in sea ice area in the northern Ross Sea, with lags of up to 2 years. Further correlation is found between meridional salt advection in the southeast Pacific formation regions, and sea ice area in the northern Amundsen/Bellingshausen seas, suggesting that freshwater derived from sea ice melt reaches the SEPSAMW formation region within 6 months. In 2016, strong advective freshening of the SEPSAMW formation region, linked to increased winter sea ice in the Amundsen/Bellingshausen seas, led to anomalously fresh mixed layers. However, a regime change in Antarctic sea ice in 2016 resulted in a subsequent lack of the usual advective freshening in the SEPSAMW formation region, driving increased salinity of the mixed layer the following year.

Estimation of sea ice drift and concentration during melt season using C-band dual-polarimetric Sentinel-1 data

Characterizing sea ice changes over the Arctic can give proper insight into its extent in the current context of climate change. Sea ice motion's effect on ice area is influenced by seasonal conditions and the prevailing climate. However, the motion of thinner ice during the melt season can result in polynyas and cause significant ice loss that lasts the entire year. Sea ice drift and concentration during melt season are rarely discussed. The present study attempts to estimate sea ice drift during the melt season (July–August) using Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (DInSAR) with the usability of C-band Sentinel-1 data. The displacements/drifts were estimated using the phase shifts between two complex images with a temporal extent of 12 days. The study also proposed estimating sea ice concentration using polarimetric descriptors (power, purity, and randomness). The results revealed drifts of about 14–15 cm in the northeastern and southern parts followed by 45–50 cm in the middle parts and 20–25 cm along the coasts and open areas. Based on three polarimetric descriptors, thin ice and other ice fragments over open areas have shown less sea ice concentration as compared to the more concentrated pancake and pack ice with more compactness over the ice crystals. The study can be useful for computing drift in the melt season and carrying out spatiotemporal time-series analysis of seasonal sea ice drift/deformation studies. The algorithm and results can be used as a base study for the upcoming L- and S-band carrying NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR) mission.

Southward migration of the zero-degree isotherm latitude over the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic Peninsula: Cryospheric, biotic and societal implications

The seasonal movement of the zero-degree isotherm across the Southern Ocean and Antarctic Peninsula drives major changes in the physical and biological processes around maritime Antarctica. These include spatial and temporal shifts in precipitation phase, snow accumulation and melt, thawing and freezing of the active layer of the permafrost, glacier mass balance variations, sea ice mass balance and changes in physiological processes of biodiversity. Here, we characterize the historical seasonal southward movement of the monthly near-surface zero-degree isotherm latitude (ZIL), and quantify the velocity of migration in the context of climate change using climate reanalyses and projections. From 1957 to 2020, the ZIL exhibited a significant southward shift of 16.8 km decade−1 around Antarctica and of 23.8 km decade−1 in the Antarctic Peninsula, substantially faster than the global mean velocity of temperature change of 4.2 km decade−1, with only a small fraction being attributed to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). CMIP6 models reproduce the trends observed from 1957 to 2014 and predict a further southward migration around Antarctica of 24 ± 12 km decade−1 and 50 ± 19 km decade−1 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively.The southward migration of the ZIL is expected to have major impacts on the cryosphere, especially on the precipitation phase, snow accumulation and in peripheral glaciers of the Antarctic Peninsula, with more uncertain changes on permafrost, ice sheets and shelves, and sea ice. Longer periods of temperatures above 0 °C threshold will extend active biological periods in terrestrial ecosystems and will reduce the extent of oceanic ice cover, changing phenologies as well as areas of productivity in marine ecosystems, especially those located on the sea ice edge.