Hydropower Investment Research Articles

Global proliferation of small hydropower plants – science and policy

Large‐scale electricity policies that embrace renewable resources have led to continued investments in hydropower. Despite evolving viewpoints regarding the sustainability of large hydropower installations, there has been a major increase in support for the widespread development of small hydropower plants (SHPs). A global synthesis reveals that 82,891 SHPs are operating or are under construction (11 SHPs for every one large hydropower plant) and that this number is estimated to triple if all potential generation capacity were to be developed. Fueled by considerable political and economic incentives in recent decades, the growth of SHPs has greatly outpaced available ecological science. We provide evidence for not only the lack of scientifically informed oversight of SHP development but also the limitations of the capacity‐based regulations currently in use. The potential indiscriminate expansion of SHPs under the pretense of promoting sustainable energy is concerning, and we identify several important steps to help ensure new scientific advances, effective management, and policy reform in the future.

Multidimensional stress test for hydropower investments facing climate, geophysical and financial uncertainty

Abstract Investors, developers, policy makers and engineers are rightly concerned about the potential effects of climate change on the future performance of hydropower investments. Hydroelectricity offers potentially low greenhouse-gas emission, renewable energy and reliable energy storage. However, hydroelectricity developments are large, complicated projects and possibly critically vulnerable to changes in climate and other assumptions related to future uncertainties. This paper presents a general assessment approach for evaluating the resilience of hydroelectricity projects to uncertainty in climate and other risk factors (e.g., financial, natural hazard). The process uses a decision analytic framework based on a decision scaling approach, which combines scenario neutral analysis and vulnerability-specific probability assessment. The technical evaluation process involves identification of project objectives, specification of uncertain factors, multi-dimensional sensitivity analysis, and data mining to identify vulnerability-specific scenarios and vulnerability-specific estimations of risk. The process is demonstrated with an application to a proposed hydropower facility on the Arun River in Nepal. The findings of the case study illustrate an example in which climate change is not the critical future uncertainty, and consequently highlight the importance of considering multiple uncertainties in combination.

ESTIMATING THE PROFITABILITY OF HYDROPOWER INVESTMENTS WITH A CASE STUDY FROM TURKEY

Energy demand has been increasing, but traditional sources of energy are depletable. New investments are needed in renewable energy production. Hydroelectric power plants are often considered a feasible renewable source of energy and are often organized as a public private partnerships (PPP). However, risk factors stemming from the macro environment as well as project conditions should be considered in performing feasibility studies. The objective of this study was to develop a method that can be used to predict the profitability of hydropower investments considering the relevant risk factors. To that end, a cash flow that represents the construction and operation period is set up, the risk fac­tors involved in such projects are identified, the impacts of these risk factors on the cash flow parameters are assessed, and Monte Carlo simulation is performed to estimate the net present value (NPV) of a hydropower investment. The proposed method was tested in a hydropower investment located in Turkey and generated credible results that could be of great benefit to potential investors operating in similar conditions. The primary contribution of this research is the creation of a method that allows investors to assess the profitability of a hydropower investment by using a stochastic approach.

Perceptions and practices of investment: China’s hydropower investments in Vietnam and Myanmar

ABSTRACTChina is a major investor in hydropower in mainland Southeast Asia. These investments have triggered substantial public concern, with anti-Chinese attitudes intensifying across the region. Yet, Chinese involvement varies across the region. We examine the “practices and perceptions” of Chinese hydropower investment in Vietnam and Myanmar, attending to the framing of dominant explanations of these investments. We caution against reinforcing xenophobic narratives about China, and urge scholars to consider what these narratives obscure. Our concern is that exceptionalising the role of Chinese investors overlooks foundational issues regarding local participation and environmental governance.

Balancing costs and benefits in Vietnam’s hydropower industry: a strategic proposal

PurposeOne of the main strategic targets in the national power development plan of Vietnam is to give priority to hydropower. However, there is evidence that the most “at risk” in Vietnamese society have, to date, broadly failed to benefit from hydropower development but rather have become more vulnerable. This paper aims to broaden the perspective of decision makers (government agencies, investors and banks) in the hydropower industry regarding the environmental and social impacts of unrestrained development and the critical need to not only reduce disaster risk for communities but also provide a sustainable model for Vietnam’s energy demand.Design/methodology/approachThis position paper presents a critique of public policy in Vietnam related to hydropower industry, undertaken alongside an analysis of socio-economic community resilience and disaster risk reduction literature.FindingsSmall hydropower investment must be delayed until measures are put in place to ensure that multi-stakeholder risk is a central component of the investment dialogue. Current pricing policies are not aligned with the hydropower development management, and this erects barriers to environmentally and socially conscious decision-making.Practical implicationsThis paper suggests that the development of small hydropower projects must be curtailed until new measures are put in place. This has practical implications for investors, policy makers and residents of affected areas. The authors argue for a significant shift in government strategy toward building resilience as opposed to growth and profit at any cost.Social implicationsConscious of Vietnam’s energy demands and development goals, this paper investigates the context of increasing disaster risk and ecological pressures, as well as social injustice relating to the hydropower industry. This kind of analysis can support future efforts to reduce disaster risk and the vulnerability of marginalized groups in Vietnam.Originality/valueThe authors present a comprehensive review of Vietnamese hydropower from a disaster resilience perspective and provide analysis that will be useful in further research in this emerging area.

The impact of Zero Energy Buildings on the Scandinavian energy system

This paper investigates how an extensive implementation of net Zero Energy Buildings (ZEBs) affects cost-optimal investments in the Scandinavian energy system towards 2050. Analyses are done by a stochastic TIMES model with an explicit representation of the short-term uncertainty related to electricity supply and heat demand in buildings. We define a nearly ZEB to be a highly efficient building with on-site PV production. To evaluate the flexibility requirement of the surrounding energy system, we consider no use of energy storage within the ZEBs. The results show that ZEBs reduce the investments in non-flexible hydropower, wind power and Combined Heat and Power, and increase the use of direct electric heating and electric boilers. With building integrated PV production of 53 TWh in 2050, ZEBs increase the Scandinavian electricity generation by 16 TWh and increase the net electricity export by 19 TWh. Although the increased production reduces the electricity prices, the low heat demand in ZEBs gives a drop in the electricity consumption by 4 TWh in 2050. Finally, the results demonstrate that the Scandinavian energy system is capable of integrating a large amount of ZEBs with intermittent PV production due to the flexible hydropower in Norway and Sweden.

“A handshake across the Himalayas:” Chinese investment, hydropower development, and state formation in Nepal

This article examines contemporary patterns of Chinese infrastructure development in Nepal’s Rasuwa District and the ways in which Nepali actors engage with Chinese investments to advance projects of state formation. Particularly in the wake of political volatility and natural disaster, Chinese interventions support the material and imaginative projects of a Nepalese state seeking stability, security, and economic growth. Long perceived as peripheral to the state center, Rasuwa is rapidly becoming central to Sino-Nepal relations, particularly in the context of bilateral investments in hydropower and transportation infrastructure. Drawing on data generated from 30 months of fieldwork in Nepal, we argue that Chinese development in Rasuwa: a) undergirds territorializing practices of the Nepalese state; b) represents a “gift of development” that connects Nepali ambitions of bikas (development) with Chinese anxieties over exile Tibetan populations; and c) reflects a strategic reorientation of geopolitical alliances between Nepal, China, and India. Challenging studies that depict Chinese development as an overwhelming extractive force, we instead show how small states like Nepal in fact use Chinese interventions to advance domestic projects of state formation and national security at home. On the basis of this study, we expand understandings about the place and priority of infrastructure in national state-making agendas, illustrate uneven local experiences with international development interventions, and highlight new configurations of Chinese investment and development abroad – characterized in Nepal as a “handshake across the Himalayas.”

A qualitative multi-attribute model for the selection of the private hydropower plant investments in Turkey: By foundation of the search results clustering engine (Carrot2), hydropower plant clustering, DEXi and DEXiTree

Purpose: The electricity demand in Turkey has been increasing for a while. Hydropower is one of the major electricity generation types to compensate this electricity demand in Turkey. Private investors (domestic and foreign) in the hydropower electricity generation sector have been looking for the most appropriate and satisfactory new private hydropower investment (PHPI) options and opportunities in Turkey. This study aims to present a qualitative multi-attribute decision making (MADM) model, that is easy, straightforward, and fast for the selection of the most satisfactory reasonable PHPI options during the very early investment stages (data and information poorness on projects).Design/methodology/approach: The data and information of the PHPI options was gathered from the official records on the official websites. A wide and deep literature review was conducted for the MADM models and for the hydropower industry. The attributes of the model were identified, selected, clustered and evaluated by the expert decision maker (EDM) opinion and by help of an open source search results clustering engine (Carrot2) (helpful for also comprehension). The PHPI options were clustered according to their installed capacities main property to analyze the options in the most appropriate, decidable, informative, understandable and meaningful way. A simple clustering algorithm for the PHPI options was executed in the current study. A template model for the selection of the most satisfactory PHPI options was built in the DEXi (Decision EXpert for Education) and the DEXiTree software.Findings: The basic attributes for the selection of the PHPI options were presented and afterwards the aggregate attributes were defined by the bottom-up structuring for the early investment stages. The attributes were also analyzed by help of Carrot2. The most satisfactory PHPI options in Turkey in the big options data set were selected for each PHPI options cluster by the EDM evaluations in the DEXi.Originality/value: The recommended DEXi PHPI selection model by the search results clustering engine within a country wise case offered the possibility of easy, meaningful and satisfying continental or worldwide applications for the private investors and the international financial institutions such as the African Development Bank, or the World Bank was the main contribution.

A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF AHP, ELECTRE III & ELECTRE IV BY EQUAL OBJECTIVE & SHANNON’S ENTROPY OBJECTIVE & SAATY’S SUBJECTIVE CRITERIA WEIGHTING IN A PRIVATE SMALL HYDROPOWER PLANTS INVESTMENTS SELECTION PROBLEM

<p>Private small hydropower plant investments are more challenging than medium and large private hydropower plant investments when considering engineering analysis. One of the necessary tasks is the selection of the most appropriate private small hydropower investment amongst several alternatives. Brokerage, consultancy and private investor activities are a few examples of these kinds of real world activities. There are many multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) or multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods, and different researchers prefer different methods This research study investigates three methods at once for the same problem: Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Elimination and Choice Translating Reality (ELECTRE) III and ELECTRE IV. A comparative investigation is conducted on one simple unique selection model for all three methods. This unified model has seven objective factors (catchment area, project runoff, net head, flow rate, firm energy, secondary energy, investment cost). An additional comparison is also made on the criteria weighting amongst equal objective, Shannon’s Entropy objective and Saaty’s subjective criteria weighting. The simplistic unified model is structured in three levels. There are seven alternatives in the pre-development investment stage. The Super Decisions software and the ELECTRE III-IV software are implemented in this study. The pairwise comparisons of factors results in an inconsistency value of 0,09511 which is 7<sup>th</sup> in the Saaty's AHP weighting. The Shannon’s Entropy objective weighting represents a difference in the rate of the expert decision maker’s evaluations ranging between -67% and 671%. The equal weighting represents a rate change between -64% and 626%. Both approaches can't represent human judgments (here only one expert decision maker) well in this model. Fortunately, the same alternative (Alternative 3) ranks first. These findings promise that further studies on this subject can give some clues for the development of an autonomous computer based intelligent decision support system. Some observed pros and cons of these methods are also presented in this study. The observations and critical issues are presented during modeling, application, evaluation and analysis to help researchers, consultants, and readers in the small hydropower investments research and practical fields. </p>

Chinese State-Owned Enterprise Investment in Mekong Hydropower: Political and Economic Drivers and Their Implications across the Water, Energy, Food Nexus

Over the last decade, Chinese State-Owned Enterprises have emerged as among the most active investors in Mekong Basin hydropower development. This paper uses a political economy analysis to examine the forces that drive Chinese State-Owned Enterprises to invest in hydropower in the Mekong Basin. We focus our analysis on the Lancang (Upper Mekong River) in China and in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), with an emphasis on Cambodia. The analysis reveals how powerful political and economic forces from within China and the GMS influence the pace, location and scale of investments in hydropower. These forces include foreign exchange reserves, trade packages and foreign direct investment, and political alliances. Combining the political economy and nexus approaches, we conclude that although policies from China recognize interconnections across the nexus, political and economic forces craft narratives that downplay or disregard these nexus interconnections and trade-offs. This in turn, influences how trade-offs and interconnections in hydropower development are managed and recognized in both local and transboundary contexts, thereby, creating potentially significant negative impacts on livelihoods, food security and the environment.

Hydropower, social priorities and the rural–urban development divide: The case of large dams in Cambodia

Hydropower investment is a priority in many developing countries, as a means to increase electrification rates and promote national development. However, neglect of dam-affected people's needs, can make them vulnerable to the multifaceted impacts of such projects. Using the case of Cambodia's first large dam, the Kamchay dam, this paper reveals social priorities of affected communities and institutional actors linked to environmental and social implications of large hydropower projects using a preference ranking method. Qualitative research revealed concerns among dam-affected communities which included energy access, livelihood changes, environmental impacts, access to natural resources and compensation. Results also reveal divergence between national and local priorities, which in turn brings about an unequal distribution of costs and benefits of the Kamchay Dam between urban and rural areas. The paper provides recommendations to policy-makers, NGOs and international organizations regarding governance issues, consultation processes and mitigation measures.

Approaches to group decision making with incomplete information based on power geometric operators and triangular fuzzy AHP

In this paper, we investigate the multiple criteria group decision making (MCGDM) problems in which decision makers (DMs)’ preferences on alternatives (criteria) are depicted by triangular fuzzy numbers and take the form of incomplete reciprocal comparison matrices. We aim to develop integrated methodologies for the MCGDM problems. First of all, we develop a triangular fuzzy power geometric (TFPG) operator and a triangular fuzzy weighted power geometric (TFWPG) operator for aggregating the DMs’ preferences into the group preferences. Furthermore, we construct a consistent recovery method and a δ-consistent recovery method for estimating the missing preferences. Next, we propose two integrated approaches to the aforementioned MCGDM problems by utilizing triangular fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (TFAHP) to combine the TFPG (TFWPG) operator, the recovery methods and extent analysis method (EAM) effectively. Finally, an illustrative example of small hydropower (SHP) investment projects selection is given to show our approaches.

Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

In this paper the LEAP, TIAM-ECN, and GCAM models were applied to evaluate the impact of a variety of climate change control policies (including carbon pricing and emission constraints relative to a base year) on primary energy consumption, final energy consumption, electricity sector development, and CO2 emission savings of the energy sector in Argentina over the 2010–2050 period. The LEAP model results indicate that if Argentina fully implements the most feasible mitigation measures currently under consideration by official bodies and key academic institutions on energy supply and demand, such as the ProBiomass program, a cumulative incremental economic cost of 22.8 billion US$(2005) to 2050 is expected, resulting in a 16% reduction in GHG emissions compared to a business-as-usual scenario. These measures also bring economic co-benefits, such as a reduction of energy imports improving the balance of trade. A Low CO2 price scenario in LEAP results in the replacement of coal by nuclear and wind energy in electricity expansion. A High CO2 price leverages additional investments in hydropower. By way of cross-model comparison with the TIAM-ECN and GCAM global integrated assessment models, significant variation in projected emissions reductions in the carbon price scenarios was observed, which illustrates the inherent uncertainties associated with such long-term projections. These models predict approximately 37% and 94% reductions under the High CO2 price scenario, respectively. By comparison, the LEAP model, using an approach based on the assessment of a limited set of mitigation options, predicts an 11.3% reduction. The main reasons for this difference include varying assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO2 storage capacity, and the ability to import bioenergy. An emission cap scenario (2050 emissions 20% lower than 2010 emissions) is feasible by including such measures as CCS and Bio CCS, but at a significant cost. In terms of technology pathways, the models agree that fossil fuels, in particular natural gas, will remain an important part of the electricity mix in the core baseline scenario. According to the models there is agreement that the introduction of a carbon price will lead to a decline in absolute and relative shares of aggregate fossil fuel generation. However, predictions vary as to the extent to which coal, nuclear and renewable energy play a role.

Exploring the public value of increased hydropower use: a choice experiment study for Austria

This paper applies a choice experiment to estimate how Austrian households value the multiple impacts associated with future hydropower investments. Clear evidence was obtained that Austrian households are willing to pay for an expansion of hydropower capacities. More precisely, Austrians are willing to incur extra costs for economic (employment) and environmental (reduced air emissions) benefits related to the generation of electricity from hydroelectric power, but wish to be compensated for the loss of nature and landscape new hydropower plants are associated with. This relation can formally be denoted as the ‘energy–water trade-off’ imposed by the use of hydropower. Moreover, confirmation of the ‘Not in my backyard’ phenomenon was found, meaning that people prefer the construction of new hydropower stations, but not close to their homes.

Finite Element Method for Static Problems of Cubic Quasicrystals

Finite Element Method for Static Problems of Cubic Quasicrystals L.-Z. Yang, F.-M. He and Y. Gaoa,∗ College of Science, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China College of Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China Sichuan Hydropower Investment and Management Group Ltd, 611130, China We put forward a nite element method for static problems of cubic quasicrystals by variation of a suitable general potential functional. As an example we study a quasicrystal column containing a penny-shaped crack. The comparison with analytical results shows that the precision and e ciency of the numerical solution are satisfactory. The procedure can be used to solve more complicated boundary value problems and can be extended towards more sophisticated methods of crack tip loading analysis.

Estimates of hydroelectric generation using neural networks with the artificial bee colony algorithm for Turkey

The primary objective of this study was to apply the ANN (artificial neural network) model with the ABC (artificial bee colony) algorithm to estimate annual hydraulic energy production of Turkey. GEED (gross electricity energy demand), population, AYT (average yearly temperature), and energy consumption were selected as independent variables in the model. The first part of the study compared ANN-ABC model performance with results of classical ANN models trained with the BP (back propagation) algorithm. Mean square and relative error were applied to evaluate model accuracy. The test set errors emphasized positive differences between the ANN-ABC and classical ANN models. After determining optimal configurations, three different scenarios were developed to predict future hydropower generation values for Turkey. Results showed the ANN-ABC method predicted hydroelectric generation better than the classical ANN trained with the BP algorithm. Furthermore, results indicated future hydroelectric generation in Turkey will range from 69.1 to 76.5 TWh in 2021, and the total annual electricity demand represented by hydropower supply rates will range from 14.8% to 18.0%. However, according to Vision 2023 agenda goals, the country plans to produce 30% of its electricity demand from renewable energy sources by 2023, and use 20% less energy than in 2010. This percentage renewable energy provision cannot be accomplished unless changes in energy policy and investments are not addressed and implemented. In order to achieve this goal, the Turkish government must reconsider and raise its own investments in hydropower, wind, solar, and geothermal energy, particularly hydropower.

Climate Change, Hydro-Dependency, and the African Dam Boom

Summary We examine Africa’s increasing reliance on hydropower in light of climate change-induced variations in rainfall and the potential power outages that may result. We use a continent wide riverflow model and IPPC climate change scenarios and show that current plans for African dam building are fairly well matched with river-flow predictions so that fears that international donors and national governments are making a series of expensive and environmentally damaging investments may be overstated. However, predictions of an increase in extreme events and reduced rainfall for certain countries mean there are still viability concerns for certain planned hydropower investments.

Corporate social responsibility: Benefits for youth in hydropower development in Laos

The role of the state as regulator combined with policies on Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) that go beyond legal requirements to establishing programmes that promote development and good international business practice is an emerging new paradigm. In this paper, the example of a state-owned company, Statkraft A.S. of Norway, and its recent hydropower investment in central Laos illustrates how policy, implementation and follow-up can lead to benefits for local communities in the impacted area of the Theun-Hinboun Expansion Project (THXP). Programmes include both support for and improvement of existing government education programmes, employment opportunities and specific programmes for youth. They have been designed to mitigate possible negative effects of the influx of workers and rapid socio-economic change in the affected area. Young people continue to have a central role in the implementation of these programmes as peer educators under the supervision of project staff and non-governmental organisations (NGOs).

Monte Carlo Simulation for Economic Analysis of Hydropower Pumped Storage Project in Nepal

Investments in hydropower pumped storage projects (PSP) are subjected to a high degree of uncertainty. In addition to normal uncertainties in hydropower schemes, the profit of a pumped storage scheme is dependent on the margin between power prices for buying and selling, which is difficult to predict without a power purchase agreement (PPA). A PSP without a PPA and without known construction costs requires quantification of the uncertainties in order to make qualified decisions before investing in such projects. This article demonstrates the advantages of using Monte Carlo (MC) simulations as a tool in the economic analysis of PSPs. The method has been tested on a case study, namely the Tamakoshi-3 Hydropower Project (HPP) in Nepal. The MC method is used to calculate the probability distribution of the net present value of installing reversible units in the Tamakoshi-3 HPP. The calculations show that PSPs may be profitable in Nepal, given a beneficial development of the power market. The MC method is considered to be a useful tool for economic analysis of PSPs. In this case study of installing reversible units in the Tamakoshi-3 HPP, there are many uncertainties, which the MC simulation method is able to quantify. Hydro Nepal; Journal of Water, Energy and Environment Vol. 12, 2013, January Page: 39-44DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/hn.v12i0.9031 Uploaded Date : 10/29/2013

Analysis of the EU renewable energy directive by a techno-economic optimisation model

The EU renewable energy (RES) directive sets a target of increasing the share of renewable energy used in the EU to 20% by 2020. The Norwegian goal for the share of renewable energy in 2020 is 67.5%, an increase from 60.1% in 2005. The Norwegian power production is almost solely based on renewable resources and the possibility to change from fossil power plants to renewable power production is almost non-existing. Therefore other measures have to be taken to fulfil the RES directive. Possible ways for Norway to reach its target for 2020 are analysed with a technology-rich, bottom-up energy system model (TIMES-Norway). This new model is developed with a high time resolution among others to be able to analyse intermittent power production. Model results indicate that the RES target can be achieved with a diversity of options including investments in hydropower, wind power, high-voltage power lines for export, various heat pump technologies, energy efficiency measures and increased use of biodiesel in the transportation sector. Hence, it is optimal to invest in a portfolio of technology choices in order to satisfy the RES directive, and not one single technology in one energy sector.